The COT through 13 Oct 2026. Each cell is one counter in one week: colour = positioning (blue short, grey neutral, orange long: its rel-to-max) , glyph = the crowd state (descriptive — v1 issues no direction; trades are v2’s), ⚡ = a squeeze/unwind firing. Read a row left-to-right to see the LONG ↔ SHORT lifecycle — Building → Max ⚑ → ▸armed → Squeeze. Click any counter for its rel-to-max line and the weekly verdict story.
| 28 Jul | 04 Aug | 11 Aug | 18 Aug | 25 Aug | 01 Sep | 08 Sep | 15 Sep | 22 Sep | 29 Sep | 06 Oct | 13 Oct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FX | ||||||||||||
| AUD▸LONG | S−40−0.6 | ⚡L−33+1.5 | ·−39+0.1 | ·−44+0.9 | ·−53+0.6 | S−47−0.1 | ·−41+0.7 | S−46−1.8 | S−56−0.7 | ‖S−75−1.4 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−100+0.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −40 · px −0.6%Young crowd short, steady (rel -40%), -0.6%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −33 · px +1.5%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +1.5%. Fuel being spent. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −39 · px +0.1%Young crowd short, building (rel -39%), +0.1%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −44 · px +0.9%Young crowd short, building (rel -44%), +0.9%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −53 · px +0.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -53%), +0.6%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −47 · px −0.1%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -47%), -0.1%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −41 · px +0.7%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -41%), +0.7%. Building — context only. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −46 · px −1.8%Young crowd short, building (rel -46%), -1.8%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −0.7%Young crowd short, building (rel -56%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 29 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px −1.4%Max short ⚑ -75% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.4%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 06 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.3%. 13 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.1%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.1%. | ||||||||||||
| CADNO TRADE | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−97+0.5 | ▸L−88+0.9 | S−68−0.5 | ·−60+0.3 | ·−39+0.2 | S−21−1.3 | S−30−0.8 | S−44−0.9 | S−50−0.2 | ·−53+0.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.3%. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.3%. 11 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -97% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.5%. 18 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −88 · px +0.9%Max short ⚑ -88% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.9%. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −68 · px −0.5%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -68%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −60 · px +0.3%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -60%), +0.3%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −39 · px +0.2%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -39%), +0.2%. Building — context only. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −21 · px −1.3%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -21%), -1.3%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −30 · px −0.8%Young crowd short, building (rel -30%), -0.8%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −0.9%Young crowd short, building (rel -44%), -0.9%. Building — context only. 06 OctSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −0.2%Young crowd short, building (rel -50%), -0.2%. Building — context only. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −53 · px +0.1%Young crowd short, steady (rel -53%), +0.1%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| CHFSHORT | ▸L−76+0.1 | ▸L−74+0.8 | ‖S−73−0.7 | ⚡L−62+2.0 | S−45−1.0 | S−52−0.9 | ·−68+0.3 | S−66−1.9 | S−61−0.0 | S−56−1.3 | ·−54+0.3 | S−50−0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −76 · px +0.1%Max short ⚑ -76% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.1%. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.8%. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -73% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.7%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 18 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −62 · px +2.0%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +2.0%. Fuel being spent. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −45 · px −1.0%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -45%), -1.0%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −52 · px −0.9%Young crowd short, building (rel -52%), -0.9%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −68 · px +0.3%Young crowd short, building (rel -68%), +0.3%. Building — context only. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −66 · px −1.9%Young crowd short, steady (rel -66%), -1.9%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −61 · px −0.0%Young crowd short, steady (rel -61%), +0.0%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −1.3%Young crowd short, steady (rel -56%), -1.3%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −54 · px +0.3%Young crowd short, steady (rel -54%), +0.3%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −0.2%Young crowd short, steady (rel -50%), -0.2%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| EURHOLD SHORT | ▸L−100+0.5 | ▸L−80+0.8 | ‖S−83−0.3 | ▸L−82+1.3 | S−50−0.2 | S−34−0.5 | ·−59+0.4 | S−37−1.5 | ‖S−72−0.7 | ‖S−87−0.5 | ‖S−100−1.2 | ‖S−100−0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.5%. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -80% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.8%. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 18 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −82 · px +1.3%Max short ⚑ -82% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +1.3%. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −0.2%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -50%), -0.2%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −34 · px −0.5%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -34%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −59 · px +0.4%Young crowd short, building (rel -59%), +0.4%. Building — context only. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −37 · px −1.5%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -37%), -1.5%. Building — context only. 22 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -72% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.7%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 29 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −87 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -87% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.5%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 06 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 13 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). | ||||||||||||
| GBPHOLD SHORT | S−61−0.1 | ·−55+0.8 | ·−53+0.2 | ·−52+0.8 | S−42−0.1 | S−47−0.8 | ·−56+0.5 | S−56−1.2 | ‖S−78−1.0 | ▸L−86+0.2 | ‖S−92−0.4 | ‖S−100−0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −61 · px −0.1%Young crowd short, building (rel -61%), -0.1%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −55 · px +0.8%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -55%), +0.8%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −53 · px +0.2%Young crowd short, steady (rel -53%), +0.2%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −52 · px +0.8%Young crowd short, steady (rel -52%), +0.8%. Building — context only. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −42 · px −0.1%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -42%), -0.1%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −47 · px −0.8%Young crowd short, building (rel -47%), -0.8%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −56 · px +0.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -56%), +0.5%. Building — context only. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −1.2%Young crowd short, steady (rel -56%), -1.2%. Building — context only. 22 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −78 · px −1.0%Max short ⚑ -78% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.0%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 29 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −86 · px +0.2%Max short ⚑ -86% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.2%. 06 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −92 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -92% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.4%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 13 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.2%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). | ||||||||||||
| JPYNO TRADE | ‖S−100−0.2 | ⚡L−28+3.6 | S−26−1.0 | ·−32+0.8 | S−39−0.7 | ·−56+0.4 | L+14+3.4 | ▸S+100−1.8 | ·+60−1.3 | L+46+0.6 | ·+52−0.4 | ·+42−0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.2%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −28 · px +3.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.6%. Fuel being spent. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −26 · px −1.0%Young crowd short, steady (rel -26%), -1.0%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −32 · px +0.8%Young crowd short, building (rel -32%), +0.8%. Building — context only. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −39 · px −0.7%Young crowd short, building (rel -39%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −56 · px +0.4%Young crowd short, building (rel -56%), +0.4%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +14 · px +3.4%Young crowd long, building (rel +14%), +3.4%. Building — context only. 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.8%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.8%. 22 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +60 · px −1.3%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +60%), -1.3%. Building — context only. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +46 · px +0.6%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +46%), +0.6%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +52 · px −0.4%Young crowd long, building (rel +52%), -0.4%. Building — context only. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +42 · px −0.2%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +42%), -0.2%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| MXNNO TRADE | ·+66−0.2 | ‖L+70+1.2 | ‖L+77+1.0 | ‖L+73+0.7 | ▸S+75−0.1 | ▸S+85−0.1 | ‖L+87+0.5 | ⚡S+80−2.0 | ⚡S+69−1.6 | ⚡S+48−3.0 | ·+10+0.5 | ·+14−2.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −0.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +66%), -0.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +1.2%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded long, +1.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77 · px +1.0%Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded long, +1.0%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px +0.7%Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded long, +0.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +75 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +75% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.1%. 01 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +85 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +85% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.1%. 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +87 · px +0.5%Max long ⚑ +87% — crowded long, +0.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +80 · px −2.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.0%. Tail realised. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +69 · px −1.6%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.6%. Tail realised. 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +48 · px −3.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.0%. Tail realised. 06 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel +10 · px +0.5%Flat positioning (+10%), cutting. No flag. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +14 · px −2.7%Young crowd long, building (rel +14%), -2.7%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| NZDHOLD SHORT | ‖S−73−0.4 | ⚡L−63+1.6 | S−61−0.5 | ·−50+1.3 | ·−22+0.1 | ·−12−1.6 | ▸S+100−0.2 | ▸S+100−2.1 | S−17−0.7 | S−27−0.7 | S−45−0.6 | ‖S−72−0.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -73% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.4%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −63 · px +1.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +1.6%. Fuel being spent. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −61 · px −0.5%Young crowd short, steady (rel -61%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −50 · px +1.3%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -50%), +1.3%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −22 · px +0.1%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -22%), +0.1%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −12 · px −1.6%Flat positioning (-12%), cutting. No flag. 08 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.2%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.2%. 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −2.1%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.1%. 22 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −17 · px −0.7%Young crowd short, building (rel -17%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −27 · px −0.7%Young crowd short, building (rel -27%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 06 OctSHORTBuilding short · rel −45 · px −0.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -45%), -0.6%. Building — context only. 13 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px −0.1%Max short ⚑ -72% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.1%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). | ||||||||||||
| Rates | ||||||||||||
| Ultra 10YHOLD LONG | ‖L+96 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+91 | ‖L+93 | ‖L+99 | ‖L+97 | ‖L+97 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+98 | ‖L+94 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+100 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +94Max long ⚑ +94% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 06 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| Ultra BondLONG | ‖L+95 | ▸S+89 | ‖L+90 | ‖L+89 | ‖L+89 | ‖L+85 | ‖L+86 | ▸S+76 | ‖L+78 | ▸S+70 | L+63 | L+65 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% but longs cutting — unwind watch, px n/a. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +85Max long ⚑ +85% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +86Max long ⚑ +86% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% but longs cutting — unwind watch, px n/a. 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +70Max long ⚑ +70% but longs cutting — unwind watch, px n/a. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +63Young crowd long, cutting (rel +63%), px n/a. Building — context only. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young crowd long, steady (rel +65%), px n/a. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| UST 10YHOLD LONG | ‖L+100 | ‖L+99 | ‖L+98 | ‖L+99 | ‖L+99 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+98 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+100 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 06 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| UST 2YLONG | ‖L+71 | L+65 | L+65 | L+62 | L+62 | L+61 | L+62 | L+67 | L+68 | L+63 | L+65 | L+69 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young crowd long, cutting (rel +65%), px n/a. Building — context only. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young crowd long, steady (rel +65%), px n/a. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +62Young crowd long, steady (rel +62%), px n/a. Building — context only. 25 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +62Young crowd long, steady (rel +62%), px n/a. Building — context only. 01 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +61Young crowd long, steady (rel +61%), px n/a. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +62Young crowd long, steady (rel +62%), px n/a. Building — context only. 15 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +67Young crowd long, building (rel +67%), px n/a. Building — context only. 22 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +68Young crowd long, steady (rel +68%), px n/a. Building — context only. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +63Young crowd long, steady (rel +63%), px n/a. Building — context only. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young crowd long, steady (rel +65%), px n/a. Building — context only. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +69Young crowd long, building (rel +69%), px n/a. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| UST 5YHOLD LONG | ‖L+75 | ‖L+77 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+74 | ‖L+73 | ‖L+71 | ‖L+74 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+78 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +74Max long ⚑ +74% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +74Max long ⚑ +74% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 06 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| UST BondLONG | ‖L+95 | ‖L+92 | ‖L+92 | ‖L+100 | ▸S+87 | ‖L+91 | ‖L+89 | ▸S+77 | L+69 | ‖L+73 | L+68 | L+65 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +87Max long ⚑ +87% but longs cutting — unwind watch, px n/a. 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% but longs cutting — unwind watch, px n/a. 22 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +69Young crowd long, cutting (rel +69%), px n/a. Building — context only. 29 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded long, px n/a. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +68Young crowd long, steady (rel +68%), px n/a. Building — context only. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young crowd long, steady (rel +65%), px n/a. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Equity | ||||||||||||
| DowHOLD LONG | ‖L+100+1.0 | ▸S+93+2.5 | S−5−0.5 | ▸S+100−0.8 | ·−6+0.4 | ·−6−1.5 | S−13−0.0 | ·−6−1.3 | S−15−0.4 | S−20−1.0 | ·−7+0.3 | ‖L+100+0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.0%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +1.0%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +2.5%Max long ⚑ +93% but longs cutting — unwind watch, +2.5%. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −5 · px −0.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -5%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 18 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.8%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.8%. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −6 · px +0.4%Young crowd short, building (rel -6%), +0.4%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −6 · px −1.5%Flat positioning (-6%), steady. No flag. 08 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −13 · px −0.0%Young crowd short, building (rel -13%), +0.0%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −6 · px −1.3%Flat positioning (-6%), cutting. No flag. 22 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −15 · px −0.4%Young crowd short, building (rel -15%), -0.4%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −20 · px −1.0%Young crowd short, building (rel -20%), -1.0%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel −7 · px +0.3%Flat positioning (-7%), cutting. No flag. 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +0.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +0.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| MSCI EMSHORT | S−32−4.6 | L+2+5.8 | ·+15−0.9 | ·+23−0.1 | L+19+2.9 | ·+25−0.7 | L+26+3.1 | ·+25−4.5 | L+28+5.1 | ⚡S+19−2.5 | L+27+1.3 | ⚡S+21−3.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −32 · px −4.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -32%), -4.6%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +2 · px +5.8%Young crowd long, building (rel +2%), +5.8%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +15 · px −0.9%Young crowd long, building (rel +15%), -0.9%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +23 · px −0.1%Young crowd long, building (rel +23%), -0.1%. Building — context only. 25 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +19 · px +2.9%Young crowd long, steady (rel +19%), +2.9%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +25 · px −0.7%Young crowd long, building (rel +25%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +26 · px +3.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +26%), +3.1%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +25 · px −4.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +25%), -4.5%. Building — context only. 22 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +28 · px +5.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +28%), +5.1%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +19 · px −2.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.5%. Tail realised. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +27 · px +1.3%Young crowd long, building (rel +27%), +1.3%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +21 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7%. Tail realised. | ||||||||||||
| Nasdaq-100SHORT | ▸L−85−4.8 | ▸L−100+7.1 | ‖S−96−0.7 | S−67−0.1 | S−44−1.0 | S−18−0.5 | ·−37+1.5 | ·−13−1.9 | ·−35+6.2 | S−34−1.3 | ⚡L−27+2.9 | S−22−2.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px −4.8%Max short ⚑ -85% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, -4.8%. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +7.1%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +7.1%. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -96% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.7%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 18 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −67 · px −0.1%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -67%), -0.1%. Building — context only. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −1.0%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -44%), -1.0%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −18 · px −0.5%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -18%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −37 · px +1.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -37%), +1.5%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −13 · px −1.9%Flat positioning (-13%), cutting. No flag. 22 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −35 · px +6.2%Young crowd short, building (rel -35%), +6.2%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −34 · px −1.3%Young crowd short, steady (rel -34%), -1.3%. Building — context only. 06 OctLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −27 · px +2.9%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +2.9%. Fuel being spent. 13 OctSHORTBuilding short · rel −22 · px −2.1%Young crowd short, steady (rel -22%), -2.1%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Russell 2000▸LONG | S−64−1.1 | ▸L−74+2.8 | ‖S−100−0.3 | ‖S−100−0.3 | ‖S−98−0.3 | ‖S−100−3.0 | ▸L−100+1.4 | ▸L−88−3.0 | ▸L−98+0.7 | ‖S−100−2.8 | ▸L−92+0.8 | ▸L−80−1.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −64 · px −1.1%Young crowd short, steady (rel -64%), -1.1%. Building — context only. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px +2.8%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +2.8%. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 18 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 25 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −98 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -98% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 01 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −3.0%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -3.0%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 08 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.4%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +1.4%. 15 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −88 · px −3.0%Max short ⚑ -88% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, -3.0%. 22 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −98 · px +0.7%Max short ⚑ -98% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.7%. 29 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −2.8%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -2.8%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 06 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −92 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -92% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.8%. 13 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −1.7%Max short ⚑ -80% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, -1.7%. | ||||||||||||
| S&P 500HOLD SHORT | S−58−1.1 | ·−64+4.1 | S−55−0.1 | S−55−0.5 | S−63−0.2 | S−64−0.6 | ·−69+0.6 | S−60−1.1 | ▸L−72+2.4 | ‖S−71−1.2 | ▸L−79+1.9 | ‖S−78−0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −58 · px −1.1%Young crowd short, steady (rel -58%), -1.1%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −64 · px +4.1%Young crowd short, building (rel -64%), +4.1%. Building — context only. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −55 · px −0.1%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -55%), -0.1%. Building — context only. 18 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −55 · px −0.5%Young crowd short, steady (rel -55%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −63 · px −0.2%Young crowd short, building (rel -63%), -0.2%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −64 · px −0.6%Young crowd short, steady (rel -64%), -0.6%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −69 · px +0.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -69%), +0.6%. Building — context only. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −60 · px −1.1%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -60%), -1.1%. Building — context only. 22 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px +2.4%Max short ⚑ -72% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +2.4%. 29 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -71% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 06 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −79 · px +1.9%Max short ⚑ -79% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +1.9%. 13 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −78 · px −0.2%Max short ⚑ -78% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). | ||||||||||||
| Vol | ||||||||||||
| VIXNO TRADE | ·−12+6.8 | ·+37−9.4 | S−11−7.4 | ·−18+3.8 | S−29−2.5 | ·−28+5.6 | S−25−3.8 | ·−17+9.4 | ·−16−17.3 | ·−8+12.7 | ·+54−6.3 | ·+11+1.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −12 · px +6.8%Young crowd short, building (rel -12%), +6.8%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +37 · px −9.4%Young crowd long, building (rel +37%), -9.4%. Building — context only. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −11 · px −7.4%Young crowd short, building (rel -11%), -7.4%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −18 · px +3.8%Young crowd short, building (rel -18%), +3.8%. Building — context only. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −29 · px −2.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -29%), -2.5%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −28 · px +5.6%Young crowd short, steady (rel -28%), +5.6%. Building — context only. 08 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −25 · px −3.8%Young crowd short, steady (rel -25%), -3.8%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −17 · px +9.4%Flat positioning (-17%), cutting. No flag. 22 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −16 · px −17.3%Flat positioning (-16%), steady. No flag. 29 SepNO TRADENeutral · rel −8 · px +12.7%Flat positioning (-8%), cutting. No flag. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +54 · px −6.3%Young crowd long, building (rel +54%), -6.3%. Building — context only. 13 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel +11 · px +1.7%Flat positioning (+11%), cutting. No flag. | ||||||||||||
| Energy | ||||||||||||
| BrentNO TRADE | ▸S+71−3.5 | ⚡S+30−12.4 | L+32+12.0 | L+31+3.0 | ·+32−4.1 | L+24+8.9 | L+27+5.8 | L+35+4.6 | ⚡S+22−2.6 | ·+19−4.9 | ·+15+2.2 | ·+12+5.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px −3.5%Max long ⚑ +71% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -3.5%. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +30 · px −12.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -12.4%. Tail realised. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +32 · px +12.0%Young crowd long, steady (rel +32%), +12.0%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +3.0%Young crowd long, steady (rel +31%), +3.0%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +32 · px −4.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +32%), -4.1%. Building — context only. 01 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +24 · px +8.9%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +24%), +8.9%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +27 · px +5.8%Young crowd long, steady (rel +27%), +5.8%. Building — context only. 15 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +35 · px +4.6%Young crowd long, building (rel +35%), +4.6%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +22 · px −2.6%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.6%. Tail realised. 29 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +19 · px −4.9%Young crowd long, steady (rel +19%), -4.9%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel +15 · px +2.2%Flat positioning (+15%), steady. No flag. 13 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel +12 · px +5.8%Flat positioning (+12%), steady. No flag. | ||||||||||||
| Heating OilLONG | L+28+4.2 | ·+28−10.4 | L+34+13.4 | L+40+0.4 | ·+42−4.1 | L+53+13.0 | L+40+2.5 | L+33+4.2 | ⚡S+24−7.3 | L+33+1.2 | ·+30−1.4 | L+31+6.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +28 · px +4.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +28%), +4.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +28 · px −10.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +28%), -10.4%. Building — context only. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +34 · px +13.4%Young crowd long, building (rel +34%), +13.4%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +40 · px +0.4%Young crowd long, building (rel +40%), +0.4%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +42 · px −4.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +42%), -4.1%. Building — context only. 01 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +53 · px +13.0%Young crowd long, building (rel +53%), +13.0%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +40 · px +2.5%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +40%), +2.5%. Building — context only. 15 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +33 · px +4.2%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +33%), +4.2%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +24 · px −7.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.3%. Tail realised. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +33 · px +1.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +33%), +1.2%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +30 · px −1.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +30%), -1.4%. Building — context only. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +6.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +31%), +6.6%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| NatGas▸LONG | ‖S−79−6.9 | ‖S−94−1.2 | ⚡L−82+4.3 | ▸L−74+0.4 | ·−53+1.0 | ·−67+4.0 | ‖S−72−4.5 | ▸L−75+2.4 | ⚡L−49+4.6 | ▸L−99+0.1 | ▸L−100+5.8 | ▸L−88−0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −79 · px −6.9%Max short ⚑ -79% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -6.9%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 04 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −94 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -94% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 11 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −82 · px +4.3%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +4.3%. Fuel being spent. 18 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px +0.4%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.4%. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −53 · px +1.0%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -53%), +1.0%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −67 · px +4.0%Young crowd short, building (rel -67%), +4.0%. Building — context only. 08 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px −4.5%Max short ⚑ -72% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -4.5%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 15 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px +2.4%Max short ⚑ -75% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +2.4%. 22 SepLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −49 · px +4.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +4.6%. Fuel being spent. 29 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −99 · px +0.1%Max short ⚑ -99% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.1%. 06 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +5.8%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +5.8%. 13 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −88 · px −0.2%Max short ⚑ -88% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, -0.2%. | ||||||||||||
| RBOBHOLD LONG | ▸S+74−0.6 | ▸S+70−12.0 | ‖L+70+11.1 | ▸S+75−5.6 | ▸S+80−0.6 | ‖L+90+4.8 | ‖L+93+3.4 | ▸S+84+0.7 | ‖L+97+3.3 | ▸S+95−2.4 | ▸S+98−0.8 | ‖L+99+0.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −0.6%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.6%. 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px −12.0%Max long ⚑ +70% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -12.0%. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +11.1%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded long, +11.1%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +75 · px −5.6%Max long ⚑ +75% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -5.6%. 25 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px −0.6%Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.6%. 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90 · px +4.8%Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded long, +4.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +3.4%Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded long, +3.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +0.7%Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — unwind watch, +0.7%. 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +3.3%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, +3.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px −2.4%Max long ⚑ +95% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.4%. 06 Oct▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +98 · px −0.8%Max long ⚑ +98% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.8%. 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +0.8%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, +0.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| WTILONG | ▸S+93−2.7 | ⚡S+87−10.9 | ▸S+80+10.7 | ‖L+88+1.3 | ▸S+84−2.6 | ‖L+94+10.7 | ‖L+100+5.5 | ‖L+95+6.6 | ▸S+91−10.0 | ⚡S+71−1.9 | ⚡S+48−2.4 | L+36+7.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +93% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.7%. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +87 · px −10.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -10.9%. Tail realised. 11 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px +10.7%Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — unwind watch, +10.7%. 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px +1.3%Max long ⚑ +88% — crowded long, +1.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px −2.6%Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.6%. 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px +10.7%Max long ⚑ +94% — crowded long, +10.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +5.5%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +5.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px +6.6%Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded long, +6.6%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 22 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px −10.0%Max long ⚑ +91% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -10.0%. 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +71 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9%. Tail realised. 06 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +48 · px −2.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.4%. Tail realised. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +36 · px +7.7%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +36%), +7.7%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Metals | ||||||||||||
| CopperHOLD LONG | ⚡S+86−2.8 | ‖L+100+6.6 | ▸S+100−1.7 | ▸S+100−1.8 | ‖L+97+1.6 | ▸S+92−0.1 | ‖L+100+4.5 | ⚡S+79−5.5 | ‖L+100+3.8 | ▸S+95−2.0 | ▸S+74+0.4 | ‖L+74+0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +86 · px −2.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.8%. Tail realised. 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +6.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +6.6%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.7%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.7%. 18 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.8%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.8%. 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +1.6%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, +1.6%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +92% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.1%. 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +4.5%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +4.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +79 · px −5.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.5%. Tail realised. 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +3.8%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +3.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px −2.0%Max long ⚑ +95% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.0%. 06 Oct▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px +0.4%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — unwind watch, +0.4%. 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +74% — crowded long, +0.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| Gold▸SHORT | ▸S+73−2.8 | ‖L+80+6.7 | ‖L+84+3.8 | ‖L+87+1.7 | ‖L+89+2.4 | ▸S+84−5.1 | ‖L+84+1.0 | ▸S+83−1.6 | ▸S+88−1.6 | ▸S+83−3.0 | ▸S+77−1.1 | ▸S+74−0.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px −2.8%Max long ⚑ +73% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.8%. 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px +6.7%Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded long, +6.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +3.8%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded long, +3.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +87 · px +1.7%Max long ⚑ +87% — crowded long, +1.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89 · px +2.4%Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded long, +2.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px −5.1%Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -5.1%. 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +1.0%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded long, +1.0%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −1.6%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.6%. 22 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px −1.6%Max long ⚑ +88% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.6%. 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −3.0%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -3.0%. 06 Oct▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +77 · px −1.1%Max long ⚑ +77% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.1%. 13 Oct▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −0.8%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.8%. | ||||||||||||
| PalladiumHOLD SHORT | ▸L−93−4.4 | ⚡L−82+9.4 | ▸L−75+0.3 | ‖S−80−2.9 | ‖S−83−0.6 | ⚡L−70+2.6 | ·−66+1.5 | ‖S−86−4.9 | ‖S−91−3.3 | ‖S−100−4.5 | ‖S−100−7.0 | ‖S−100−2.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −93 · px −4.4%Max short ⚑ -93% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, -4.4%. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −82 · px +9.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +9.4%. Fuel being spent. 11 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -75% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.3%. 18 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −2.9%Max short ⚑ -80% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -2.9%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 25 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.6%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 01 SepLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −70 · px +2.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +2.6%. Fuel being spent. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −66 · px +1.5%Young crowd short, steady (rel -66%), +1.5%. Building — context only. 15 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −86 · px −4.9%Max short ⚑ -86% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -4.9%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 22 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −3.3%Max short ⚑ -91% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -3.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 29 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −4.5%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -4.5%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 06 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −7.0%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -7.0%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 13 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −2.7%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -2.7%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). | ||||||||||||
| PlatinumSHORT | ·+31−3.1 | L+52+9.0 | L+37+1.3 | L+34+2.3 | L+49+1.9 | ⚡S+42−4.3 | L+47+8.7 | ·+43−6.9 | ·+47−2.1 | ·+43−1.7 | ·+50−4.0 | ⚡S+42−2.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +31 · px −3.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +31%), -3.1%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +52 · px +9.0%Young crowd long, building (rel +52%), +9.0%. Building — context only. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +1.3%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +37%), +1.3%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +34 · px +2.3%Young crowd long, steady (rel +34%), +2.3%. Building — context only. 25 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +49 · px +1.9%Young crowd long, building (rel +49%), +1.9%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −4.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.3%. Tail realised. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +47 · px +8.7%Young crowd long, building (rel +47%), +8.7%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −6.9%Young crowd long, steady (rel +43%), -6.9%. Building — context only. 22 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +47 · px −2.1%Young crowd long, building (rel +47%), -2.1%. Building — context only. 29 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −1.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +43%), -1.7%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +50 · px −4.0%Young crowd long, building (rel +50%), -4.0%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −2.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.1%. Tail realised. | ||||||||||||
| SilverSHORT | ·+24−3.7 | L+31+7.2 | L+29+5.5 | L+30+0.2 | L+36+3.3 | ·+34−3.8 | L+39+4.9 | ·+35−5.4 | L+38+0.1 | ⚡S+28−6.8 | ·+29−0.4 | ⚡S+22−7.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +24 · px −3.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +24%), -3.7%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +7.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +31%), +7.2%. Building — context only. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +29 · px +5.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +29%), +5.5%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +30 · px +0.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +30%), +0.2%. Building — context only. 25 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +36 · px +3.3%Young crowd long, building (rel +36%), +3.3%. Building — context only. 01 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +34 · px −3.8%Young crowd long, steady (rel +34%), -3.8%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +39 · px +4.9%Young crowd long, building (rel +39%), +4.9%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +35 · px −5.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +35%), -5.4%. Building — context only. 22 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +38 · px +0.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +38%), +0.1%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +28 · px −6.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.8%. Tail realised. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +29 · px −0.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +29%), -0.4%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +22 · px −7.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.3%. Tail realised. | ||||||||||||
| Base·LME | ||||||||||||
| AluminiumNO TRADE | L+65+0.4 | L+66+1.5 | ‖L+71+2.1 | ▸S+72−1.0 | ▸S+72−0.7 | ‖L+76+2.1 | ▸S+75−0.5 | ‖L+73+0.4 | ▸S+74−1.0 | ⚡S+66−5.3 | ·+63−1.7 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +0.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +65%), +0.4%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +66 · px +1.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +66%), +1.5%. Building — context only. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px +2.1%Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded long, +2.1%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px −1.0%Max long ⚑ +72% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.0%. 25 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +72% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.7%. 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76 · px +2.1%Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded long, +2.1%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +75 · px −0.5%Max long ⚑ +75% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.5%. 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px +0.4%Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded long, +0.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −1.0%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.0%. 06 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +66 · px −5.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.3%. Tail realised. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +63 · px −1.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +63%), -1.7%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Lead▸LONG | ▸L−84+0.7 | ‖S−83−1.0 | ▸L−95+0.5 | ▸L−93+0.5 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−100+0.8 | ‖S−100−1.2 | ▸L−98+2.0 | ▸L−85+1.0 | ‖S−100−4.9 | ▸L−95+2.0 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px +0.7%Max short ⚑ -84% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.7%. 04 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −1.0%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.0%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 11 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −95 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -95% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.5%. 18 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −93 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -93% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.5%. 25 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.3%. 08 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +0.8%. 15 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 22 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −98 · px +2.0%Max short ⚑ -98% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +2.0%. 29 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px +1.0%Max short ⚑ -85% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +1.0%. 06 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −4.9%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -4.9%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 13 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −95 · px +2.0%Max short ⚑ -95% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +2.0%. | ||||||||||||
| NickelNO TRADE | L+37+2.5 | ·+40−0.7 | ·+36−1.5 | ·+33−1.1 | L+37+1.7 | ·+39−1.2 | ·+42−2.2 | ⚡S+34−1.8 | L+33+0.8 | ·+17−4.4 | ·+13−0.0 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +2.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +37%), +2.5%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +40 · px −0.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +40%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +36 · px −1.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +36%), -1.5%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +33 · px −1.1%Young crowd long, steady (rel +33%), -1.1%. Building — context only. 25 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +1.7%Young crowd long, building (rel +37%), +1.7%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +39 · px −1.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +39%), -1.2%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +42 · px −2.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +42%), -2.2%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +34 · px −1.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.8%. Tail realised. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +33 · px +0.8%Young crowd long, steady (rel +33%), +0.8%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel +17 · px −4.4%Flat positioning (+17%), cutting. No flag. 13 OctNO TRADENeutral · rel +13 · px −0.0%Flat positioning (+13%), steady. No flag. | ||||||||||||
| ZincLONG | ‖L+97+2.8 | ‖L+98+1.8 | ‖L+100+1.4 | ‖L+100+2.7 | ‖L+99+2.2 | ‖L+100+4.2 | ⚡S+94−1.9 | ▸S+86−0.5 | ▸S+82−0.5 | ⚡S+70−5.6 | L+64+2.7 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +2.8%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, +2.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98 · px +1.8%Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded long, +1.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +1.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.7%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +2.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +2.2%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, +2.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +4.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +4.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 15 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +94 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9%. Tail realised. 22 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +86 · px −0.5%Max long ⚑ +86% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.5%. 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +82 · px −0.5%Max long ⚑ +82% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.5%. 06 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +70 · px −5.6%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.6%. Tail realised. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +64 · px +2.7%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +64%), +2.7%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Grains | ||||||||||||
| CornSHORT | L+37+1.3 | ·+42−3.5 | ·+37−1.2 | L+53+6.1 | ‖L+92+8.0 | ‖L+100+9.1 | ▸S+100−2.3 | ‖L+100+0.4 | ‖L+97+0.2 | ▸S+92−2.7 | ⚡S+80−2.7 | ⚡S+59−5.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +1.3%Young crowd long, building (rel +37%), +1.3%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +42 · px −3.5%Young crowd long, building (rel +42%), -3.5%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +37 · px −1.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +37%), -1.2%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +53 · px +6.1%Young crowd long, building (rel +53%), +6.1%. Building — context only. 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px +8.0%Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded long, +8.0%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +9.1%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +9.1%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −2.3%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.3%. 15 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +0.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +0.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, +0.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +92% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.7%. 06 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +80 · px −2.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.7%. Tail realised. 13 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +59 · px −5.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.0%. Tail realised. | ||||||||||||
| Soybean MealHOLD LONG | L+67+0.2 | ⚡S+59−2.9 | ·+56−2.4 | L+63+2.5 | ‖L+73+3.3 | ‖L+100+7.1 | ▸S+100−0.8 | ‖L+100+4.5 | ‖L+100+1.5 | ▸S+100−3.2 | ▸S+99−1.2 | ‖L+99+2.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +67 · px +0.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +67%), +0.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +59 · px −2.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.9%. Tail realised. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −2.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +56%), -2.4%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +63 · px +2.5%Young crowd long, building (rel +63%), +2.5%. Building — context only. 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px +3.3%Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded long, +3.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +7.1%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +7.1%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.8%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.8%. 15 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +4.5%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +4.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.5%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +1.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −3.2%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -3.2%. 06 Oct▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px −1.2%Max long ⚑ +99% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.2%. 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +2.4%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded long, +2.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| Soybean OilNO TRADE | ⚡S+64−3.8 | ⚡S+47−2.0 | L+47+0.9 | L+54+2.2 | ·+51−2.7 | L+59+7.2 | ·+55−2.7 | ·+60−0.5 | ·+55−3.5 | L+50+0.6 | L+56+2.3 | ·+52−2.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +64 · px −3.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.8%. Tail realised. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +47 · px −2.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.0%. Tail realised. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +47 · px +0.9%Young crowd long, steady (rel +47%), +0.9%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +54 · px +2.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +54%), +2.2%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +51 · px −2.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +51%), -2.7%. Building — context only. 01 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +59 · px +7.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +59%), +7.2%. Building — context only. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −2.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +55%), -2.7%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +60 · px −0.5%Young crowd long, building (rel +60%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 22 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −3.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +55%), -3.5%. Building — context only. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +50 · px +0.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +50%), +0.6%. Building — context only. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +56 · px +2.3%Young crowd long, building (rel +56%), +2.3%. Building — context only. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +52 · px −2.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +52%), -2.7%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Soybeans▸SHORT | ·+69−0.2 | ⚡S+57−3.5 | ·+47−0.8 | L+65+4.1 | ‖L+86+1.7 | ‖L+100+6.5 | ▸S+100−0.1 | ▸S+94+0.2 | ‖L+100+0.5 | ⚡S+93−2.1 | ‖L+97+0.4 | ▸S+94−1.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +69 · px −0.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +69%), -0.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +57 · px −3.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.5%. Tail realised. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +47 · px −0.8%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +47%), -0.8%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +4.1%Young crowd long, building (rel +65%), +4.1%. Building — context only. 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +86 · px +1.7%Max long ⚑ +86% — crowded long, +1.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +6.5%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +6.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.1%. 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — unwind watch, +0.2%. 22 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +0.5%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +0.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +93 · px −2.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.1%. Tail realised. 06 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +0.4%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded long, +0.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 13 Oct▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −1.5%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.5%. | ||||||||||||
| Wheat HRWSHORT | ▸S+83−0.9 | ▸S+83−2.7 | ·+67−1.1 | ‖L+83+8.5 | ‖L+100+1.6 | ‖L+100+9.7 | ▸S+100−3.1 | ⚡S+91−2.8 | ⚡S+83−1.9 | ⚡S+63−4.9 | L+48+1.8 | ⚡S+36−5.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −0.9%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.9%. 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.7%. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +67 · px −1.1%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +67%), -1.1%. Building — context only. 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px +8.5%Max long ⚑ +83% — crowded long, +8.5%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +1.6%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +9.7%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +9.7%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −3.1%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -3.1%. 15 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +91 · px −2.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.8%. Tail realised. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +83 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9%. Tail realised. 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +63 · px −4.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.9%. Tail realised. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +48 · px +1.8%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +48%), +1.8%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +36 · px −5.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.8%. Tail realised. | ||||||||||||
| Wheat SRWSHORT | ·−7−2.3 | S−22−3.6 | S−29−1.3 | ⚡L−22+8.1 | ·−12+3.2 | ‖L+100+11.3 | ⚡S+33−4.5 | S−3−2.5 | S−11−1.5 | S−19−3.4 | ·−25+1.7 | S−29−5.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −7 · px −2.3%Flat positioning (-7%), cutting. No flag. 04 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −22 · px −3.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -22%), -3.6%. Building — context only. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −29 · px −1.3%Young crowd short, building (rel -29%), -1.3%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −22 · px +8.1%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +8.1%. Fuel being spent. 25 AugNO TRADENeutral · rel −12 · px +3.2%Flat positioning (-12%), cutting. No flag. 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +11.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +11.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +33 · px −4.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.5%. Tail realised. 15 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −3 · px −2.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -3%), -2.5%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −11 · px −1.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -11%), -1.5%. Building — context only. 29 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −19 · px −3.4%Young crowd short, building (rel -19%), -3.4%. Building — context only. 06 OctNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −25 · px +1.7%Young crowd short, building (rel -25%), +1.7%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORTBuilding short · rel −29 · px −5.0%Young crowd short, building (rel -29%), -5.0%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Softs | ||||||||||||
| CocoaNO TRADE | S−38−7.2 | ⚡L−20+13.9 | S−29−4.6 | ·−41+4.7 | S−45−1.5 | ⚡L−21+12.7 | S−38−10.0 | ·−41+0.2 | ‖S−71−8.8 | ·−69+0.1 | ⚡L−48+5.4 | ·−52+0.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −38 · px −7.2%Young crowd short, building (rel -38%), -7.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −20 · px +13.9%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +13.9%. Fuel being spent. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −29 · px −4.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -29%), -4.6%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −41 · px +4.7%Young crowd short, building (rel -41%), +4.7%. Building — context only. 25 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −45 · px −1.5%Young crowd short, building (rel -45%), -1.5%. Building — context only. 01 SepLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −21 · px +12.7%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +12.7%. Fuel being spent. 08 SepSHORTBuilding short · rel −38 · px −10.0%Young crowd short, building (rel -38%), -10.0%. Building — context only. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −41 · px +0.2%Young crowd short, steady (rel -41%), +0.2%. Building — context only. 22 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px −8.8%Max short ⚑ -71% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -8.8%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 29 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −69 · px +0.1%Young crowd short, steady (rel -69%), +0.1%. Building — context only. 06 OctLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −48 · px +5.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +5.4%. Fuel being spent. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −52 · px +0.6%Young crowd short, building (rel -52%), +0.6%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| CoffeeSHORT | L+67+5.4 | ·+63−4.5 | ·+65−2.6 | L+63+5.3 | L+62+0.9 | ⚡S+53−7.8 | ⚡S+44−5.9 | ·+41−2.6 | ⚡S+32−4.0 | L+32+6.3 | L+38+5.2 | ⚡S+30−3.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +67 · px +5.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +67%), +5.4%. Building — context only. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +63 · px −4.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +63%), -4.5%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +65 · px −2.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +65%), -2.6%. Building — context only. 18 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +63 · px +5.3%Young crowd long, steady (rel +63%), +5.3%. Building — context only. 25 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +62 · px +0.9%Young crowd long, steady (rel +62%), +0.9%. Building — context only. 01 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +53 · px −7.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.8%. Tail realised. 08 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +44 · px −5.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.9%. Tail realised. 15 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +41 · px −2.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +41%), -2.6%. Building — context only. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +32 · px −4.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.0%. Tail realised. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +32 · px +6.3%Young crowd long, steady (rel +32%), +6.3%. Building — context only. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +38 · px +5.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +38%), +5.2%. Building — context only. 13 OctSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +30 · px −3.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.9%. Tail realised. | ||||||||||||
| CottonNO TRADE | ‖L+78+0.1 | ‖L+93+2.4 | ‖L+100+2.3 | ‖L+100+1.2 | ‖L+100+3.4 | ‖L+100+3.6 | ⚡S+94−5.7 | ▸S+91−2.1 | ⚡S+75−1.9 | ⚡S+67−4.8 | L+57+3.0 | ·+57−0.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78 · px +0.1%Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded long, +0.1%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +2.4%Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded long, +2.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +2.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +1.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +3.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +3.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +3.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +3.6%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +94 · px −5.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.7%. Tail realised. 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px −2.1%Max long ⚑ +91% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.1%. 22 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +75 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9%. Tail realised. 29 SepSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +67 · px −4.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.8%. Tail realised. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +57 · px +3.0%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +57%), +3.0%. Building — context only. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +57 · px −0.9%Young crowd long, steady (rel +57%), -0.9%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| SugarHOLD LONG | S−49−2.2 | ⚡L−37+3.4 | ‖L+100+11.2 | ‖L+100+4.4 | ▸S+100−1.1 | ‖L+100+6.3 | ▸S+100−1.4 | ▸S+94−0.9 | ▸S+91−2.0 | ‖L+91+1.3 | ‖L+100+16.8 | ‖L+100+1.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −49 · px −2.2%Young crowd short, building (rel -49%), -2.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −37 · px +3.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.4%. Fuel being spent. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +11.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +11.2%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 18 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +4.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +4.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 25 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.1%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.1%. 01 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +6.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +6.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 08 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.4%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -1.4%. 15 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −0.9%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -0.9%. 22 Sep▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px −2.0%Max long ⚑ +91% but longs cutting — unwind watch, -2.0%. 29 SepHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px +1.3%Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded long, +1.3%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 06 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +16.8%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +16.8%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). 13 OctHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded long, +1.4%. Unwind tail: do not add (shorting a crowded long loses). | ||||||||||||
| Livestock | ||||||||||||
| Feeder CattleNO TRADE | ·+25−2.2 | L+31+2.6 | ·+33−0.3 | ·+34−5.5 | ·+32−4.0 | L+31+0.7 | L+28+3.2 | L+27+2.6 | ·+30−3.2 | L+30+2.4 | L+35+2.2 | ·+35−0.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +25 · px −2.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +25%), -2.2%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +2.6%Young crowd long, building (rel +31%), +2.6%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +33 · px −0.3%Young crowd long, steady (rel +33%), -0.3%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +34 · px −5.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +34%), -5.5%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +32 · px −4.0%Young crowd long, steady (rel +32%), -4.0%. Building — context only. 01 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +0.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +31%), +0.7%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +28 · px +3.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +28%), +3.2%. Building — context only. 15 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +27 · px +2.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +27%), +2.6%. Building — context only. 22 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +30 · px −3.2%Young crowd long, steady (rel +30%), -3.2%. Building — context only. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +30 · px +2.4%Young crowd long, steady (rel +30%), +2.4%. Building — context only. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +35 · px +2.2%Young crowd long, building (rel +35%), +2.2%. Building — context only. 13 OctNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +35 · px −0.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +35%), -0.7%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
| Lean HogsHOLD SHORT | S−44−13.0 | S−44−4.4 | S−56−1.2 | S−67−3.1 | ‖S−84−0.3 | ▸L−80+4.0 | ·−69+0.7 | ‖S−87−6.1 | ‖S−98−10.2 | ‖S−100−1.8 | ▸L−82+1.0 | ‖S−96−3.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −13.0%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -44%), -13.0%. Building — context only. 04 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −4.4%Young crowd short, steady (rel -44%), -4.4%. Building — context only. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −1.2%Young crowd short, building (rel -56%), -1.2%. Building — context only. 18 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −67 · px −3.1%Young crowd short, building (rel -67%), -3.1%. Building — context only. 25 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -84% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -0.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 01 Sep▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px +4.0%Max short ⚑ -80% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +4.0%. 08 SepNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −69 · px +0.7%Young crowd short, cutting (rel -69%), +0.7%. Building — context only. 15 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −87 · px −6.1%Max short ⚑ -87% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -6.1%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 22 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −98 · px −10.2%Max short ⚑ -98% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -10.2%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 29 SepHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.8%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -1.8%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). 06 Oct▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −82 · px +1.0%Max short ⚑ -82% but covering — squeeze fuel lit, +1.0%. 13 OctHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px −3.3%Max short ⚑ -96% — crowded short, shorts pressing; -3.3%. Squeeze fuel (long-biased). | ||||||||||||
| Live CattleLONG | ·+49−0.5 | L+47+2.6 | ·+48−0.7 | ·+46−3.3 | ·+43−3.6 | L+35+0.5 | L+35+2.3 | L+35+1.7 | ·+36−0.6 | L+39+0.6 | L+37+1.5 | L+35+1.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ crowd direction persisted next wk (descriptive — no edge) Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +49 · px −0.5%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +49%), -0.5%. Building — context only. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +47 · px +2.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +47%), +2.6%. Building — context only. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +48 · px −0.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +48%), -0.7%. Building — context only. 18 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +46 · px −3.3%Young crowd long, steady (rel +46%), -3.3%. Building — context only. 25 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −3.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +43%), -3.6%. Building — context only. 01 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +35 · px +0.5%Young crowd long, cutting (rel +35%), +0.5%. Building — context only. 08 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +35 · px +2.3%Young crowd long, steady (rel +35%), +2.3%. Building — context only. 15 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +35 · px +1.7%Young crowd long, steady (rel +35%), +1.7%. Building — context only. 22 SepNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +36 · px −0.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +36%), -0.6%. Building — context only. 29 SepLONGBuilding long · rel +39 · px +0.6%Young crowd long, steady (rel +39%), +0.6%. Building — context only. 06 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +1.5%Young crowd long, steady (rel +37%), +1.5%. Building — context only. 13 OctLONGBuilding long · rel +35 · px +1.0%Young crowd long, steady (rel +35%), +1.0%. Building — context only. | ||||||||||||
Two layers: Regime (where the crowd is — Building / Max ⚑ / Squeeze / Neutral) × crowd state (descriptive: long / short / crowded / ▸fuel / ▸unwind). This tracker issues no trades — 6-yr testing found the state has no direction edge at any horizon; read it as a risk map. ▸L at a max-short = squeeze fuel; the ⚡ week is a squeeze firing. Trades: v2.