The COT through 23 Jun 2026. Each cell is one counter in one week: colour = positioning (red short → green long, its rel-to-max), glyph = the action, ⚡ = a squeeze/unwind firing. Read a row left-to-right to see the LONG ↔ SHORT lifecycle — Building → Max ⚑ → ▸armed → Squeeze. Click any counter for its rel-to-max line and the weekly verdict story.
| 07 Apr | 14 Apr | 21 Apr | 28 Apr | 05 May | 12 May | 19 May | 26 May | 02 Jun | 09 Jun | 16 Jun | 23 Jun | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FX | ||||||||||||
| AUDSHORT | ▸S+87+1.7 | ▸S+80+1.8 | ▸S+80−0.1 | ▸S+88−0.6 | ‖L+97+1.7 | ‖L+100+0.3 | ▸S+100−1.5 | ▸S+70−0.1 | ·+49−0.2 | ⚡S+21−1.8 | ·−4+0.2 | S−13−1.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +87 · px +1.7%Max long ⚑ +87% but longs cutting — armed to fade, +1.7% → ▸SHORT. 14 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px +1.8%Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — armed to fade, +1.8% → ▸SHORT. 21 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.1% → ▸SHORT. 28 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px −0.6%Max long ⚑ +88% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.6% → ▸SHORT. 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +1.7%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; +1.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +0.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.5%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.5% → ▸SHORT. 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +70% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.1% → ▸SHORT. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +49 · px −0.2%Young long cutting (rel +49%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +21 · px −1.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −4 · px +0.2%Young short building (rel -4%), +0.2% → NO TRADE. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −13 · px −1.6%Young short building (rel -13%), -1.6% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| CADHOLD SHORT | ·−35+0.2 | ·−49+0.7 | ·−37+0.5 | S−24−0.1 | ·−9+0.4 | ·−10−0.5 | S−20−0.3 | S−43−0.7 | S−59−0.4 | ‖S−75−0.3 | ‖S−83−1.1 | ‖S−92−0.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −35 · px +0.2%Young short building (rel -35%), +0.2% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −49 · px +0.7%Young short building (rel -49%), +0.7% → NO TRADE. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −37 · px +0.5%Young short cutting (rel -37%), +0.5% → NO TRADE. 28 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −24 · px −0.1%Young short cutting (rel -24%), -0.1% → SHORT. 05 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel −9 · px +0.4%No edge — flat positioning (-9%), cutting. NO TRADE. 12 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel −10 · px −0.5%No edge — flat positioning (-10%), steady. NO TRADE. 19 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −20 · px −0.3%Young short building (rel -20%), -0.3% → SHORT. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −43 · px −0.7%Young short building (rel -43%), -0.7% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −59 · px −0.4%Young short building (rel -59%), -0.4% → SHORT. 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -75% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −1.1%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded; -1.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −92 · px −0.9%Max short ⚑ -92% — crowded; -0.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| CHFHOLD SHORT | ·−69+0.4 | ▸L−77+1.2 | ‖S−75−0.5 | ‖S−80−0.7 | ▸L−78+1.4 | ‖S−82−0.4 | ‖S−84−0.7 | ‖S−80−0.0 | ▸L−74−0.6 | ‖S−83−1.0 | ‖S−91−0.0 | ‖S−93−1.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −69 · px +0.4%Young short steady (rel -69%), +0.4% → NO TRADE. 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px +1.2%Max short ⚑ -77% but covering — armed to fade, +1.2% → ▸LONG. 21 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -75% — crowded; -0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -80% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −78 · px +1.4%Max short ⚑ -78% but covering — armed to fade, +1.4% → ▸LONG. 12 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −82 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -82% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -84% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -80% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — armed to fade, -0.6% → ▸LONG. 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −1.0%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded; -1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -91% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −93 · px −1.5%Max short ⚑ -93% — crowded; -1.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| EURNO TRADE | ▸L−100+0.7 | L+14+1.2 | ·+23−0.8 | ·+20−0.2 | L+18+0.6 | ·+22−0.3 | ·+19−0.7 | ·+16−0.0 | ·+27−0.2 | ·+8−0.5 | ·+19−0.3 | ·+17−1.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.7%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.7% → ▸LONG. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +14 · px +1.2%Young long building (rel +14%), +1.2% → LONG. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +23 · px −0.8%Young long building (rel +23%), -0.8% → NO TRADE. 28 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +20 · px −0.2%Young long steady (rel +20%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 05 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +18 · px +0.6%Young long steady (rel +18%), +0.6% → LONG. 12 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +22 · px −0.3%Young long building (rel +22%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +19 · px −0.7%Young long steady (rel +19%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 26 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel +16 · px −0.0%No edge — flat positioning (+16%), steady. NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +27 · px −0.2%Young long building (rel +27%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 09 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +8 · px −0.5%No edge — flat positioning (+8%), cutting. NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +19 · px −0.3%Young long building (rel +19%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +17 · px −1.2%No edge — flat positioning (+17%), steady. NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| GBPHOLD SHORT | ·−60+0.7 | ·−59+1.2 | S−56−0.4 | S−65−0.2 | ·−69+0.9 | S−46−0.5 | S−69−0.7 | S−66−0.1 | S−56−0.1 | S−69−0.4 | ‖S−77−0.6 | ‖S−100−0.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −60 · px +0.7%Young short building (rel -60%), +0.7% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −59 · px +1.2%Young short steady (rel -59%), +1.2% → NO TRADE. 21 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −0.4%Young short steady (rel -56%), -0.4% → SHORT. 28 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −65 · px −0.2%Young short building (rel -65%), -0.2% → SHORT. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −69 · px +0.9%Young short building (rel -69%), +0.9% → NO TRADE. 12 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −46 · px −0.5%Young short cutting (rel -46%), -0.5% → SHORT. 19 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −69 · px −0.7%Young short building (rel -69%), -0.7% → SHORT. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −66 · px −0.1%Young short steady (rel -66%), -0.1% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −0.1%Young short cutting (rel -56%), -0.1% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −69 · px −0.4%Young short building (rel -69%), -0.4% → SHORT. 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -77% — crowded; -0.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.9%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| JPYHOLD SHORT | ▸L−100+0.2 | ▸L−89−0.3 | ‖S−100−0.3 | ‖S−100−0.6 | ⚡L−60+2.6 | ‖S−74−1.0 | ‖S−92−0.7 | ‖S−100−0.4 | ‖S−100−0.4 | ‖S−100−0.3 | ‖S−100−0.1 | ‖S−97−0.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.2% → ▸LONG. 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −89 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -89% but covering — armed to fade, -0.3% → ▸LONG. 21 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −60 · px +2.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +2.6% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 12 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px −1.0%Max short ⚑ -74% — crowded; -1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −92 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -92% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.1%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -97% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| MXNNO TRADE | L+53+2.2 | L+54+1.0 | ·+62−0.5 | ·+62−1.1 | L+57+1.6 | L+59+0.5 | ·+57−0.8 | ·+53−0.3 | L+50+0.1 | ·+58−0.4 | L+66+0.7 | ·+68−1.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +53 · px +2.2%Young long steady (rel +53%), +2.2% → LONG. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +54 · px +1.0%Young long steady (rel +54%), +1.0% → LONG. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +62 · px −0.5%Young long building (rel +62%), -0.5% → NO TRADE. 28 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +62 · px −1.1%Young long steady (rel +62%), -1.1% → NO TRADE. 05 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +57 · px +1.6%Young long steady (rel +57%), +1.6% → LONG. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +59 · px +0.5%Young long steady (rel +59%), +0.5% → LONG. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +57 · px −0.8%Young long steady (rel +57%), -0.8% → NO TRADE. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +53 · px −0.3%Young long steady (rel +53%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +50 · px +0.1%Young long steady (rel +50%), +0.1% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +58 · px −0.4%Young long building (rel +58%), -0.4% → NO TRADE. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +66 · px +0.7%Young long building (rel +66%), +0.7% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +68 · px −1.7%Young long steady (rel +68%), -1.7% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| NZDHOLD SHORT | ·−64+1.2 | ▸L−74+1.5 | ‖S−85−0.1 | ‖S−82−1.3 | ▸L−85+2.2 | S−69−0.3 | ‖S−72−1.2 | ·−60+0.6 | S−50−0.7 | S−56−1.1 | ‖S−80−0.5 | ‖S−97−2.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −64 · px +1.2%Young short building (rel -64%), +1.2% → NO TRADE. 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px +1.5%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — armed to fade, +1.5% → ▸LONG. 21 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px −0.1%Max short ⚑ -85% — crowded; -0.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −82 · px −1.3%Max short ⚑ -82% — crowded; -1.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px +2.2%Max short ⚑ -85% but covering — armed to fade, +2.2% → ▸LONG. 12 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −69 · px −0.3%Young short cutting (rel -69%), -0.3% → SHORT. 19 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -72% — crowded; -1.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −60 · px +0.6%Young short cutting (rel -60%), +0.6% → NO TRADE. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −0.7%Young short cutting (rel -50%), -0.7% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −1.1%Young short building (rel -56%), -1.1% → SHORT. 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -80% — crowded; -0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px −2.0%Max short ⚑ -97% — crowded; -2.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Rates | ||||||||||||
| Ultra 10YHOLD LONG | ‖L+99 | ‖L+97 | ▸S+82 | ‖L+78 | ‖L+82 | ‖L+77 | ‖L+81 | ‖L+80 | ‖L+89 | ▸S+80 | ‖L+84 | ‖L+84 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +82Max long ⚑ +82% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +82Max long ⚑ +82% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +81Max long ⚑ +81% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Ultra BondHOLD LONG | ‖L+100 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+99 | ‖L+97 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+96 | ▸S+90 | ‖L+89 | ‖L+90 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+97 | ‖L+97 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST 10YHOLD LONG | ‖L+90 | ‖L+90 | ‖L+89 | ‖L+91 | ‖L+87 | ‖L+86 | ‖L+92 | ▸S+84 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+98 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+96 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +87Max long ⚑ +87% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +86Max long ⚑ +86% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST 2YHOLD LONG | ‖L+95 | ‖L+91 | ‖L+89 | ‖L+90 | ‖L+85 | ‖L+81 | ‖L+82 | ‖L+77 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+72 | ‖L+70 | ‖L+78 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +85Max long ⚑ +85% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +81Max long ⚑ +81% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +82Max long ⚑ +82% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST 5YHOLD LONG | ‖L+74 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+72 | ‖L+70 | ‖L+72 | ‖L+71 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+71 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+76 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +74Max long ⚑ +74% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST BondHOLD LONG | L+57 | L+58 | L+65 | L+63 | ‖L+71 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+84 | ‖L+80 | ‖L+81 | ‖L+81 | ‖L+93 | ‖L+100 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +57Young long steady (rel +57%), px n/a → LONG. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +58Young long steady (rel +58%), px n/a → LONG. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young long building (rel +65%), px n/a → LONG. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +63Young long steady (rel +63%), px n/a → LONG. 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +81Max long ⚑ +81% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +81Max long ⚑ +81% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Equity | ||||||||||||
| DowSHORT | ·−28+0.5 | ·−44+4.2 | ·−33+1.3 | S−44−0.0 | ·−55+0.3 | ·−52+0.9 | S−55−0.8 | ·−61+2.2 | ⚡L−52+1.7 | S−34−0.8 | ·−37+2.2 | S−34−0.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −28 · px +0.5%Young short steady (rel -28%), +0.5% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −44 · px +4.2%Young short building (rel -44%), +4.2% → NO TRADE. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −33 · px +1.3%Young short cutting (rel -33%), +1.3% → NO TRADE. 28 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −0.0%Young short building (rel -44%), -0.0% → SHORT. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −55 · px +0.3%Young short building (rel -55%), +0.3% → NO TRADE. 12 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −52 · px +0.9%Young short steady (rel -52%), +0.9% → NO TRADE. 19 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −55 · px −0.8%Young short steady (rel -55%), -0.8% → SHORT. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −61 · px +2.2%Young short building (rel -61%), +2.2% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −52 · px +1.7%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +1.7% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −34 · px −0.8%Young short cutting (rel -34%), -0.8% → SHORT. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −37 · px +2.2%Young short steady (rel -37%), +2.2% → NO TRADE. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −34 · px −0.6%Young short steady (rel -34%), -0.6% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| MSCI EMNO TRADE | L+5+0.9 | ·+7+8.6 | L+15−0.0 | ·0+1.2 | L+25+3.8 | L+42+0.6 | ⚡S+23−2.4 | L+24+6.4 | L+48+3.5 | ⚡S+39−7.0 | L+27+4.3 | ·+43−2.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +5 · px +0.9%Young long building (rel +5%), +0.9% → LONG. 14 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel +7 · px +8.6%No edge — flat positioning (+7%), steady. NO TRADE. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +15 · px −0.0%Young long building (rel +15%), +0.0% → LONG. 28 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel 0 · px +1.2%No edge — flat positioning (+0%), steady. NO TRADE. 05 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +25 · px +3.8%Young long building (rel +25%), +3.8% → LONG. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +42 · px +0.6%Young long building (rel +42%), +0.6% → LONG. 19 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +23 · px −2.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 26 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +24 · px +6.4%Young long steady (rel +24%), +6.4% → LONG. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +48 · px +3.5%Young long building (rel +48%), +3.5% → LONG. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +39 · px −7.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +27 · px +4.3%Young long cutting (rel +27%), +4.3% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −2.1%Young long building (rel +43%), -2.1% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Nasdaq-100HOLD SHORT | ·−64+1.9 | ▸L−83+6.8 | ⚡L−77+2.5 | ▸L−79+2.1 | ▸L−80+3.6 | ▸L−100+3.7 | ▸L−89−0.8 | ▸L−96+4.1 | ▸L−100+2.2 | ▸L−76−5.1 | ⚡L−69+3.0 | ‖S−77−2.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −64 · px +1.9%Young short building (rel -64%), +1.9% → NO TRADE. 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px +6.8%Max short ⚑ -83% but covering — armed to fade, +6.8% → ▸LONG. 21 AprLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −77 · px +2.5%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +2.5% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 28 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −79 · px +2.1%Max short ⚑ -79% but covering — armed to fade, +2.1% → ▸LONG. 05 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px +3.6%Max short ⚑ -80% but covering — armed to fade, +3.6% → ▸LONG. 12 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +3.7%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +3.7% → ▸LONG. 19 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −89 · px −0.8%Max short ⚑ -89% but covering — armed to fade, -0.8% → ▸LONG. 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px +4.1%Max short ⚑ -96% but covering — armed to fade, +4.1% → ▸LONG. 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +2.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +2.2% → ▸LONG. 09 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −76 · px −5.1%Max short ⚑ -76% but covering — armed to fade, -5.1% → ▸LONG. 16 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −69 · px +3.0%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.0% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px −2.1%Max short ⚑ -77% — crowded; -2.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Russell 2000NO TRADE | ·−31+1.9 | ·−43+6.3 | ·−48+2.2 | S−56−0.3 | ⚡L−47+3.2 | S−52−0.1 | S−58−3.4 | ·−58+6.3 | ·−63+0.4 | S−64−2.2 | ▸L−72+2.5 | ·−48+1.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −31 · px +1.9%Young short steady (rel -31%), +1.9% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −43 · px +6.3%Young short building (rel -43%), +6.3% → NO TRADE. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −48 · px +2.2%Young short building (rel -48%), +2.2% → NO TRADE. 28 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −0.3%Young short building (rel -56%), -0.3% → SHORT. 05 MayLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −47 · px +3.2%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.2% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 12 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −52 · px −0.1%Young short building (rel -52%), -0.1% → SHORT. 19 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −58 · px −3.4%Young short building (rel -58%), -3.4% → SHORT. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −58 · px +6.3%Young short steady (rel -58%), +6.3% → NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −63 · px +0.4%Young short building (rel -63%), +0.4% → NO TRADE. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −64 · px −2.2%Young short steady (rel -64%), -2.2% → SHORT. 16 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px +2.5%Max short ⚑ -72% but covering — armed to fade, +2.5% → ▸LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −48 · px +1.2%Young short cutting (rel -48%), +1.2% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| S&P 500▸LONG | ·−50+1.4 | ▸L−87+5.3 | ▸L−85+1.4 | ▸L−84+1.1 | ▸L−83+1.7 | ▸L−90+2.0 | ▸L−84−0.6 | ▸L−96+2.3 | ▸L−100+1.2 | ▸L−91−2.9 | ▸L−100+1.7 | ▸L−71−1.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −50 · px +1.4%Young short steady (rel -50%), +1.4% → NO TRADE. 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −87 · px +5.3%Max short ⚑ -87% but covering — armed to fade, +5.3% → ▸LONG. 21 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px +1.4%Max short ⚑ -85% but covering — armed to fade, +1.4% → ▸LONG. 28 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px +1.1%Max short ⚑ -84% but covering — armed to fade, +1.1% → ▸LONG. 05 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px +1.7%Max short ⚑ -83% but covering — armed to fade, +1.7% → ▸LONG. 12 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −90 · px +2.0%Max short ⚑ -90% but covering — armed to fade, +2.0% → ▸LONG. 19 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -84% but covering — armed to fade, -0.6% → ▸LONG. 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px +2.3%Max short ⚑ -96% but covering — armed to fade, +2.3% → ▸LONG. 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.2% → ▸LONG. 09 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −2.9%Max short ⚑ -91% but covering — armed to fade, -2.9% → ▸LONG. 16 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.7%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.7% → ▸LONG. 23 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px −1.9%Max short ⚑ -71% but covering — armed to fade, -1.9% → ▸LONG. | ||||||||||||
| Vol | ||||||||||||
| VIXNO TRADE | ·−42+2.1 | S−28−28.8 | ·−40+6.2 | S−38−8.6 | S−37−2.5 | ·−45+3.5 | ·−49+0.4 | S−47−5.8 | S−31−7.3 | ·−33+26.0 | ·−13−17.4 | ·−18+18.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −42 · px +2.1%Young short steady (rel -42%), +2.1% → NO TRADE. 14 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −28 · px −28.8%Young short cutting (rel -28%), -28.8% → SHORT. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −40 · px +6.2%Young short building (rel -40%), +6.2% → NO TRADE. 28 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −38 · px −8.6%Young short steady (rel -38%), -8.6% → SHORT. 05 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −37 · px −2.5%Young short steady (rel -37%), -2.5% → SHORT. 12 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −45 · px +3.5%Young short building (rel -45%), +3.5% → NO TRADE. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −49 · px +0.4%Young short building (rel -49%), +0.4% → NO TRADE. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −47 · px −5.8%Young short steady (rel -47%), -5.8% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −31 · px −7.3%Young short cutting (rel -31%), -7.3% → SHORT. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −33 · px +26.0%Young short steady (rel -33%), +26.0% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel −13 · px −17.4%No edge — flat positioning (-13%), cutting. NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −18 · px +18.8%Young short building (rel -18%), +18.8% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Energy | ||||||||||||
| BrentNO TRADE | ⚡S+70−6.3 | L+64+0.2 | L+60+7.4 | L+62+8.4 | ▸S+77−8.3 | L+68+4.3 | ·+58−0.6 | ⚡S+43−10.2 | L+31+3.7 | ·+35−4.8 | ·+36−14.6 | ·+31−7.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +70 · px −6.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.3% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +64 · px +0.2%Young long cutting (rel +64%), +0.2% → LONG. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +60 · px +7.4%Young long steady (rel +60%), +7.4% → LONG. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +62 · px +8.4%Young long steady (rel +62%), +8.4% → LONG. 05 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +77 · px −8.3%Max long ⚑ +77% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -8.3% → ▸SHORT. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +68 · px +4.3%Young long cutting (rel +68%), +4.3% → LONG. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +58 · px −0.6%Young long cutting (rel +58%), -0.6% → NO TRADE. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +43 · px −10.2%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -10.2% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +3.7%Young long cutting (rel +31%), +3.7% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +35 · px −4.8%Young long building (rel +35%), -4.8% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +36 · px −14.6%Young long steady (rel +36%), -14.6% → NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +31 · px −7.3%Young long steady (rel +31%), -7.3% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Heating OilNO TRADE | ·+43−6.1 | ·+40−6.5 | L+33+7.1 | L+30+7.4 | ·+28−7.6 | L+23+0.8 | L+26+0.8 | ⚡S+18−8.2 | L+29+9.0 | ⚡S+23−6.1 | ·+23−13.0 | ·+15−1.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −6.1%Young long steady (rel +43%), -6.1% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +40 · px −6.5%Young long steady (rel +40%), -6.5% → NO TRADE. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +33 · px +7.1%Young long cutting (rel +33%), +7.1% → LONG. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +30 · px +7.4%Young long steady (rel +30%), +7.4% → LONG. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +28 · px −7.6%Young long steady (rel +28%), -7.6% → NO TRADE. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +23 · px +0.8%Young long steady (rel +23%), +0.8% → LONG. 19 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +26 · px +0.8%Young long steady (rel +26%), +0.8% → LONG. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +18 · px −8.2%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -8.2% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +29 · px +9.0%Young long building (rel +29%), +9.0% → LONG. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +23 · px −6.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +23 · px −13.0%Young long steady (rel +23%), -13.0% → NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +15 · px −1.0%No edge — flat positioning (+15%), cutting. NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| NatGasNO TRADE | ‖S−81−3.4 | ‖S−100−4.2 | ⚡L−88+4.3 | ‖S−85−2.8 | ▸L−94+3.1 | ▸L−100+4.9 | ⚡L−80+4.9 | ▸L−100+3.0 | ⚡L−85+3.8 | ‖S−91−0.9 | S−63−1.3 | ·−62+2.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −81 · px −3.4%Max short ⚑ -81% — crowded; -3.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −4.2%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -4.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −88 · px +4.3%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +4.3% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 28 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px −2.8%Max short ⚑ -85% — crowded; -2.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −94 · px +3.1%Max short ⚑ -94% but covering — armed to fade, +3.1% → ▸LONG. 12 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +4.9%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +4.9% → ▸LONG. 19 MayLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −80 · px +4.9%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +4.9% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +3.0%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +3.0% → ▸LONG. 02 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −85 · px +3.8%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.8% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −0.9%Max short ⚑ -91% — crowded; -0.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −63 · px −1.3%Young short cutting (rel -63%), -1.3% → SHORT. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −62 · px +2.4%Young short steady (rel -62%), +2.4% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| RBOB▸SHORT | ·+60−2.8 | L+57−0.0 | L+58+8.1 | L+62+10.6 | ·+66−3.7 | L+63+0.3 | ·+62−2.5 | ·+67−9.3 | L+68+2.1 | ·+65−0.7 | ·+68−8.9 | ▸S+72−1.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +60 · px −2.8%Young long steady (rel +60%), -2.8% → NO TRADE. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +57 · px −0.0%Young long steady (rel +57%), -0.0% → LONG. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +58 · px +8.1%Young long steady (rel +58%), +8.1% → LONG. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +62 · px +10.6%Young long building (rel +62%), +10.6% → LONG. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −3.7%Young long building (rel +66%), -3.7% → NO TRADE. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +63 · px +0.3%Young long steady (rel +63%), +0.3% → LONG. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +62 · px −2.5%Young long steady (rel +62%), -2.5% → NO TRADE. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +67 · px −9.3%Young long building (rel +67%), -9.3% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +68 · px +2.1%Young long steady (rel +68%), +2.1% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +65 · px −0.7%Young long steady (rel +65%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +68 · px −8.9%Young long steady (rel +68%), -8.9% → NO TRADE. 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px −1.5%Max long ⚑ +72% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.5% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| WTISHORT | ·+45−5.7 | ·+56−3.3 | L+57+1.8 | L+46+15.0 | ·+41−11.0 | L+42+6.2 | ·+56−2.7 | ⚡S+46−9.7 | L+52+8.3 | ·+54−6.2 | ·+55−15.6 | ⚡S+47−7.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +45 · px −5.7%Young long steady (rel +45%), -5.7% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −3.3%Young long building (rel +56%), -3.3% → NO TRADE. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +57 · px +1.8%Young long steady (rel +57%), +1.8% → LONG. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +46 · px +15.0%Young long cutting (rel +46%), +15.0% → LONG. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +41 · px −11.0%Young long steady (rel +41%), -11.0% → NO TRADE. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +42 · px +6.2%Young long steady (rel +42%), +6.2% → LONG. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −2.7%Young long building (rel +56%), -2.7% → NO TRADE. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +46 · px −9.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -9.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +52 · px +8.3%Young long building (rel +52%), +8.3% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +54 · px −6.2%Young long steady (rel +54%), -6.2% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −15.6%Young long steady (rel +55%), -15.6% → NO TRADE. 23 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +47 · px −7.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). | ||||||||||||
| Metals | ||||||||||||
| Copper▸SHORT | L+51+2.3 | L+69+5.3 | ‖L+79+0.7 | ▸S+81−3.2 | ‖L+84+4.3 | ‖L+99+8.0 | ▸S+98−5.2 | ‖L+93+0.2 | ‖L+100+2.6 | ⚡S+91−3.7 | ‖L+91+3.6 | ▸S+88−8.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +51 · px +2.3%Young long steady (rel +51%), +2.3% → LONG. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +69 · px +5.3%Young long building (rel +69%), +5.3% → LONG. 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px +0.7%Max long ⚑ +79% — crowded; +0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +81 · px −3.2%Max long ⚑ +81% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.2% → ▸SHORT. 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +4.3%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; +4.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +8.0%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; +8.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +98 · px −5.2%Max long ⚑ +98% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -5.2% → ▸SHORT. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; +0.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +2.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +91 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px +3.6%Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded; +3.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px −8.4%Max long ⚑ +88% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -8.4% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Gold▸SHORT | ·+55−0.7 | L+58+1.0 | ·+57−1.5 | ·+55−4.0 | L+58+2.9 | L+60+0.3 | ·+57−3.6 | ·+60−1.9 | L+69+0.4 | ·+65−7.5 | ‖L+70+6.0 | ▸S+71−8.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −0.7%Young long steady (rel +55%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +58 · px +1.0%Young long steady (rel +58%), +1.0% → LONG. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +57 · px −1.5%Young long steady (rel +57%), -1.5% → NO TRADE. 28 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −4.0%Young long steady (rel +55%), -4.0% → NO TRADE. 05 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +58 · px +2.9%Young long steady (rel +58%), +2.9% → LONG. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +60 · px +0.3%Young long steady (rel +60%), +0.3% → LONG. 19 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +57 · px −3.6%Young long steady (rel +57%), -3.6% → NO TRADE. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +60 · px −1.9%Young long steady (rel +60%), -1.9% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +69 · px +0.4%Young long building (rel +69%), +0.4% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +65 · px −7.5%Young long steady (rel +65%), -7.5% → NO TRADE. 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +6.0%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; +6.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px −8.5%Max long ⚑ +71% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -8.5% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| PalladiumHOLD SHORT | ·−18+7.2 | ·−13−0.8 | ·−13−2.0 | S−19−5.6 | ·−15+5.7 | S−21−1.1 | S−33−10.4 | ·−48+1.5 | S−53−4.3 | S−67−6.9 | ·−65+9.4 | ‖S−71−13.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −18 · px +7.2%Young short steady (rel -18%), +7.2% → NO TRADE. 14 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel −13 · px −0.8%No edge — flat positioning (-13%), steady. NO TRADE. 21 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel −13 · px −2.0%No edge — flat positioning (-13%), steady. NO TRADE. 28 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −19 · px −5.6%Young short building (rel -19%), -5.6% → SHORT. 05 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel −15 · px +5.7%No edge — flat positioning (-15%), steady. NO TRADE. 12 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −21 · px −1.1%Young short building (rel -21%), -1.1% → SHORT. 19 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −33 · px −10.4%Young short building (rel -33%), -10.4% → SHORT. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −48 · px +1.5%Young short building (rel -48%), +1.5% → NO TRADE. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −53 · px −4.3%Young short building (rel -53%), -4.3% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −67 · px −6.9%Young short building (rel -67%), -6.9% → SHORT. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −65 · px +9.4%Young short steady (rel -65%), +9.4% → NO TRADE. 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px −13.8%Max short ⚑ -71% — crowded; -13.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| PlatinumNO TRADE | L+65+3.9 | ‖L+79+3.0 | ▸S+76−2.0 | ⚡S+67−9.0 | L+59+8.5 | ‖L+77+6.5 | ⚡S+64−10.8 | ·+61−1.6 | ·+57−2.8 | ⚡S+40−9.8 | L+38+6.0 | ·+41−11.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +3.9%Young long building (rel +65%), +3.9% → LONG. 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px +3.0%Max long ⚑ +79% — crowded; +3.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +76 · px −2.0%Max long ⚑ +76% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.0% → ▸SHORT. 28 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +67 · px −9.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -9.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 05 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +59 · px +8.5%Young long cutting (rel +59%), +8.5% → LONG. 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77 · px +6.5%Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; +6.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +64 · px −10.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -10.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +61 · px −1.6%Young long steady (rel +61%), -1.6% → NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +57 · px −2.8%Young long steady (rel +57%), -2.8% → NO TRADE. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +40 · px −9.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -9.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +38 · px +6.0%Young long steady (rel +38%), +6.0% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +41 · px −11.8%Young long steady (rel +41%), -11.8% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| SilverNO TRADE | ·+21−0.9 | L+23+5.6 | ·+18−2.1 | ·+22−7.5 | L+22+7.2 | L+32+15.6 | ⚡S+24−14.8 | ·+21−1.7 | ·+21−1.6 | ·+21−12.2 | L+29+9.3 | ·+26−17.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −0.9%Young long steady (rel +21%), -0.9% → NO TRADE. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +23 · px +5.6%Young long steady (rel +23%), +5.6% → LONG. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +18 · px −2.1%Young long steady (rel +18%), -2.1% → NO TRADE. 28 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +22 · px −7.5%Young long building (rel +22%), -7.5% → NO TRADE. 05 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +22 · px +7.2%Young long steady (rel +22%), +7.2% → LONG. 12 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +32 · px +15.6%Young long building (rel +32%), +15.6% → LONG. 19 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +24 · px −14.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -14.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −1.7%Young long steady (rel +21%), -1.7% → NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −1.6%Young long steady (rel +21%), -1.6% → NO TRADE. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −12.2%Young long steady (rel +21%), -12.2% → NO TRADE. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +29 · px +9.3%Young long building (rel +29%), +9.3% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +26 · px −17.9%Young long steady (rel +26%), -17.9% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Base·LME | ||||||||||||
| Aluminium▸SHORT | ‖L+85+6.2 | ‖L+85+0.7 | ‖L+89+2.2 | ▸S+88−2.9 | ‖L+92+1.8 | ‖L+95+3.8 | ▸S+92−3.2 | ⚡S+85−3.1 | ▸S+83−3.8 | |||
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +85 · px +6.2%Max long ⚑ +85% — crowded; +6.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +85 · px +0.7%Max long ⚑ +85% — crowded; +0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89 · px +2.2%Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; +2.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px −2.9%Max long ⚑ +88% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.9% → ▸SHORT. 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px +1.8%Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; +1.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px +3.8%Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; +3.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px −3.2%Max long ⚑ +92% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.2% → ▸SHORT. 16 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +85 · px −3.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −3.8%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.8% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| LeadSHORT | ▸L−100+1.4 | ⚡L−91+3.0 | ·−65+0.4 | ·−38+0.7 | ·−6+0.9 | ·−6+1.2 | ·+12−0.7 | S−32−1.4 | S−31−2.2 | |||
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.4%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.4% → ▸LONG. 21 AprLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −91 · px +3.0%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.0% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 28 AprNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −65 · px +0.4%Young short cutting (rel -65%), +0.4% → NO TRADE. 12 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −38 · px +0.7%Young short cutting (rel -38%), +0.7% → NO TRADE. 19 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel −6 · px +0.9%No edge — flat positioning (-6%), cutting. NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel −6 · px +1.2%No edge — flat positioning (-6%), steady. NO TRADE. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +12 · px −0.7%Young long building (rel +12%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −32 · px −1.4%Young short building (rel -32%), -1.4% → SHORT. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −31 · px −2.2%Young short steady (rel -31%), -2.2% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| NickelNO TRADE | L+61+0.3 | ‖L+73+5.1 | ‖L+84+5.1 | ▸S+91−0.7 | ▸S+94−2.1 | ‖L+96+3.1 | ⚡S+90−2.7 | ⚡S+72−4.1 | ·+66−1.2 | |||
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +61 · px +0.3%Young long steady (rel +61%), +0.3% → LONG. 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px +5.1%Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded; +5.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +5.1%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; +5.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +91% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.7% → ▸SHORT. 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −2.1%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.1% → ▸SHORT. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96 · px +3.1%Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; +3.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +90 · px −2.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +72 · px −4.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −1.2%Young long cutting (rel +66%), -1.2% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Zinc▸SHORT | ‖L+79+6.6 | ‖L+89+3.6 | ‖L+96+1.1 | ▸S+93−1.9 | ‖L+100+3.0 | ‖L+100−0.0 | ▸S+100−0.2 | ‖L+99+1.9 | ▸S+94−0.7 | |||
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px +6.6%Max long ⚑ +79% — crowded; +6.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89 · px +3.6%Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; +3.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96 · px +1.1%Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; +1.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px −1.9%Max long ⚑ +93% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.9% → ▸SHORT. 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +3.0%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +3.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; -0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.2%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.2% → ▸SHORT. 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +1.9%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; +1.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.7% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Grains | ||||||||||||
| CornSHORT | ⚡S+75−1.9 | ·+55−1.3 | L+65+2.4 | ‖L+95+2.5 | ‖L+100+3.2 | ▸S+86−0.0 | ▸S+85−1.0 | ⚡S+61−3.7 | ⚡S+35−3.7 | S−1−4.8 | S−26−1.4 | S−39−1.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +75 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −1.3%Young long cutting (rel +55%), -1.3% → NO TRADE. 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +2.4%Young long building (rel +65%), +2.4% → LONG. 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px +2.5%Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; +2.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +3.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +3.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +86 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +86% but longs cutting — armed to fade, +0.0% → ▸SHORT. 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +85 · px −1.0%Max long ⚑ +85% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.0% → ▸SHORT. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +61 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +35 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −1 · px −4.8%Young short building (rel -1%), -4.8% → SHORT. 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −26 · px −1.4%Young short building (rel -26%), -1.4% → SHORT. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −39 · px −1.0%Young short building (rel -39%), -1.0% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Soybean MealNO TRADE | ⚡S+86−1.5 | ‖L+100+5.7 | ⚡S+90−2.6 | ‖L+92+1.9 | ⚡S+85−2.1 | ‖L+88+2.5 | ‖L+99+1.2 | ▸S+94−1.1 | ▸S+97−0.7 | ⚡S+42−7.7 | ·+15+2.0 | ·+9−1.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +86 · px −1.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +5.7%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +5.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +90 · px −2.6%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.6% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px +1.9%Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; +1.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +85 · px −2.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px +2.5%Max long ⚑ +88% — crowded; +2.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +1.2%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; +1.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −1.1%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.1% → ▸SHORT. 02 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +97% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.7% → ▸SHORT. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −7.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +15 · px +2.0%No edge — flat positioning (+15%), cutting. NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +9 · px −1.9%No edge — flat positioning (+9%), cutting. NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Soybean OilSHORT | ‖L+100+1.2 | ▸S+100−4.7 | ‖L+100+8.6 | ‖L+98+0.5 | ‖L+99+6.1 | ▸S+95−2.0 | ‖L+92+0.1 | ▸S+83−1.4 | ‖L+90+5.4 | ⚡S+77−4.5 | ▸S+73−2.7 | ⚡S+61−8.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +1.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −4.7%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -4.7% → ▸SHORT. 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +8.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +8.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98 · px +0.5%Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; +0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +6.1%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; +6.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px −2.0%Max long ⚑ +95% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.0% → ▸SHORT. 19 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px +0.1%Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; +0.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −1.4%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.4% → ▸SHORT. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90 · px +5.4%Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; +5.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +77 · px −4.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +73% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.7% → ▸SHORT. 23 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +61 · px −8.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -8.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). | ||||||||||||
| SoybeansNO TRADE | ▸S+78−1.1 | ▸S+72−0.0 | ‖L+80+2.8 | ▸S+76−0.1 | ‖L+91+1.9 | ‖L+89+1.3 | ▸S+85−1.4 | ⚡S+79−1.9 | ⚡S+67−1.7 | ⚡S+42−4.4 | L+23+2.9 | ·+16−0.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +78 · px −1.1%Max long ⚑ +78% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.1% → ▸SHORT. 14 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +72% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.0% → ▸SHORT. 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px +2.8%Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded; +2.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +76 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +76% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.1% → ▸SHORT. 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px +1.9%Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded; +1.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89 · px +1.3%Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; +1.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +85 · px −1.4%Max long ⚑ +85% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.4% → ▸SHORT. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +79 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +67 · px −1.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −4.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +23 · px +2.9%Young long cutting (rel +23%), +2.9% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +16 · px −0.4%No edge — flat positioning (+16%), cutting. NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Wheat HRWSHORT | ⚡S+79−4.4 | ‖L+82+2.5 | ‖L+100+5.3 | ‖L+100+7.1 | ▸S+100−1.7 | ‖L+97+6.0 | ⚡S+81−3.8 | ⚡S+74−3.9 | ⚡S+37−6.1 | S−6−0.6 | L+22+1.6 | S−1−2.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +79 · px −4.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +82 · px +2.5%Max long ⚑ +82% — crowded; +2.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +5.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +5.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +7.1%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +7.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.7%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.7% → ▸SHORT. 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +6.0%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; +6.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +81 · px −3.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +74 · px −3.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +37 · px −6.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −6 · px −0.6%Young short building (rel -6%), -0.6% → SHORT. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +22 · px +1.6%Young long building (rel +22%), +1.6% → LONG. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −1 · px −2.5%Young short building (rel -1%), -2.5% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Wheat SRWSHORT | S−4−3.0 | ·−5−1.0 | ·−7+3.5 | ‖L+100+7.3 | S−7−4.6 | ·−16+8.2 | ·−3−1.7 | S−14−4.8 | S−48−5.1 | S−68−2.9 | ⚡L−61+3.2 | S−62−1.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −4 · px −3.0%Young short building (rel -4%), -3.0% → SHORT. 14 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel −5 · px −1.0%No edge — flat positioning (-5%), steady. NO TRADE. 21 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel −7 · px +3.5%No edge — flat positioning (-7%), steady. NO TRADE. 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +7.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +7.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −7 · px −4.6%Young short building (rel -7%), -4.6% → SHORT. 12 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −16 · px +8.2%Young short building (rel -16%), +8.2% → NO TRADE. 19 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel −3 · px −1.7%No edge — flat positioning (-3%), cutting. NO TRADE. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −14 · px −4.8%Young short building (rel -14%), -4.8% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −48 · px −5.1%Young short building (rel -48%), -5.1% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −68 · px −2.9%Young short building (rel -68%), -2.9% → SHORT. 16 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −61 · px +3.2%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.2% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −62 · px −1.2%Young short steady (rel -62%), -1.2% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Softs | ||||||||||||
| CocoaLONG | ‖S−99−6.2 | ▸L−100+17.7 | ‖S−95−9.3 | ▸L−100+2.2 | ⚡L−68+20.5 | ⚡L−58+12.6 | ‖S−73−14.8 | ▸L−81+6.7 | ‖S−97−1.5 | ‖S−100−6.7 | ⚡L−89+10.5 | ⚡L−78+9.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −99 · px −6.2%Max short ⚑ -99% — crowded; -6.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +17.7%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +17.7% → ▸LONG. 21 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −95 · px −9.3%Max short ⚑ -95% — crowded; -9.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +2.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +2.2% → ▸LONG. 05 MayLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −68 · px +20.5%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +20.5% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 12 MayLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −58 · px +12.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +12.6% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 19 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px −14.8%Max short ⚑ -73% — crowded; -14.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −81 · px +6.7%Max short ⚑ -81% but covering — armed to fade, +6.7% → ▸LONG. 02 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px −1.5%Max short ⚑ -97% — crowded; -1.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −6.7%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -6.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −89 · px +10.5%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +10.5% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 23 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −78 · px +9.7%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +9.7% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). | ||||||||||||
| CoffeeLONG | ⚡S+55−4.1 | L+59+4.0 | ·+54−5.0 | L+65+2.8 | ·+69−0.3 | ⚡S+61−3.3 | ⚡S+49−3.6 | L+46+1.4 | ⚡S+39−5.4 | ⚡S+24−5.7 | L+28+11.6 | L+42+1.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +55 · px −4.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +59 · px +4.0%Young long building (rel +59%), +4.0% → LONG. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +54 · px −5.0%Young long steady (rel +54%), -5.0% → NO TRADE. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +2.8%Young long building (rel +65%), +2.8% → LONG. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +69 · px −0.3%Young long building (rel +69%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 12 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +61 · px −3.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.3% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 19 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +49 · px −3.6%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.6% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 26 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +46 · px +1.4%Young long steady (rel +46%), +1.4% → LONG. 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +39 · px −5.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +24 · px −5.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +28 · px +11.6%Young long building (rel +28%), +11.6% → LONG. 23 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +42 · px +1.2%Young long building (rel +42%), +1.2% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| CottonLONG | ·−1+1.9 | ‖L+100+4.2 | ‖L+100+8.8 | ▸S+100−1.5 | ‖L+100+6.4 | ‖L+100+1.8 | ▸S+100−4.6 | ⚡S+93−6.0 | ▸S+84−0.4 | ⚡S+71−7.5 | L+56+9.1 | L+59+1.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprNO TRADENeutral · rel −1 · px +1.9%No edge — flat positioning (-1%), cutting. NO TRADE. 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +4.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +4.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +8.8%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +8.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.5%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.5% → ▸SHORT. 05 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +6.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +6.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 12 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.8%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +1.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −4.6%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -4.6% → ▸SHORT. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +93 · px −6.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px −0.4%Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.4% → ▸SHORT. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +71 · px −7.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +56 · px +9.1%Young long cutting (rel +56%), +9.1% → LONG. 23 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +59 · px +1.3%Young long steady (rel +59%), +1.3% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| SugarHOLD SHORT | S−23−6.1 | S−56−4.8 | ‖S−73−3.2 | ▸L−73+5.1 | ⚡L−47+8.9 | S−40−2.3 | S−35−0.0 | S−37−3.1 | S−50−1.1 | S−52−2.1 | S−65−1.8 | ‖S−78−2.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −23 · px −6.1%Young short building (rel -23%), -6.1% → SHORT. 14 AprSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −4.8%Young short building (rel -56%), -4.8% → SHORT. 21 AprHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px −3.2%Max short ⚑ -73% — crowded; -3.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Apr▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px +5.1%Max short ⚑ -73% but covering — armed to fade, +5.1% → ▸LONG. 05 MayLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −47 · px +8.9%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +8.9% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 12 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −40 · px −2.3%Young short cutting (rel -40%), -2.3% → SHORT. 19 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −35 · px −0.0%Young short steady (rel -35%), +0.0% → SHORT. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −37 · px −3.1%Young short steady (rel -37%), -3.1% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −1.1%Young short building (rel -50%), -1.1% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −52 · px −2.1%Young short steady (rel -52%), -2.1% → SHORT. 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −65 · px −1.8%Young short building (rel -65%), -1.8% → SHORT. 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −78 · px −2.9%Max short ⚑ -78% — crowded; -2.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Livestock | ||||||||||||
| Feeder CattleLONG | L+58−0.0 | L+60+2.5 | ·+56−4.5 | L+51+3.9 | ·+56−0.2 | ⚡S+49−4.2 | L+52+2.0 | ⚡S+30−3.9 | ·+31−0.3 | L+31+1.6 | L+37+3.6 | L+43+0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +58 · px −0.0%Young long steady (rel +58%), +0.0% → LONG. 14 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +60 · px +2.5%Young long steady (rel +60%), +2.5% → LONG. 21 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −4.5%Young long steady (rel +56%), -4.5% → NO TRADE. 28 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +51 · px +3.9%Young long steady (rel +51%), +3.9% → LONG. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −0.2%Young long building (rel +56%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 12 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +49 · px −4.2%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.2% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 19 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +52 · px +2.0%Young long steady (rel +52%), +2.0% → LONG. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +30 · px −3.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +31 · px −0.3%Young long steady (rel +31%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 09 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +1.6%Young long steady (rel +31%), +1.6% → LONG. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +3.6%Young long building (rel +37%), +3.6% → LONG. 23 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +43 · px +0.3%Young long building (rel +43%), +0.3% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| Lean Hogs▸LONG | L+61+1.9 | ⚡S+54−4.3 | L+38+0.7 | ·+32−1.2 | ·+27−0.5 | ⚡S+20−3.0 | ·+16+3.8 | ·+1−2.0 | ▸L−100+1.5 | ‖S−100−5.4 | ‖S−100−1.4 | ▸L−100+2.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +61 · px +1.9%Young long steady (rel +61%), +1.9% → LONG. 14 AprSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +54 · px −4.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.3% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 21 AprLONGBuilding long · rel +38 · px +0.7%Young long cutting (rel +38%), +0.7% → LONG. 28 AprNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +32 · px −1.2%Young long cutting (rel +32%), -1.2% → NO TRADE. 05 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +27 · px −0.5%Young long steady (rel +27%), -0.5% → NO TRADE. 12 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +20 · px −3.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 19 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel +16 · px +3.8%No edge — flat positioning (+16%), steady. NO TRADE. 26 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel +1 · px −2.0%No edge — flat positioning (+1%), cutting. NO TRADE. 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.5%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.5% → ▸LONG. 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −5.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -5.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -1.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +2.6%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +2.6% → ▸LONG. | ||||||||||||
| Live Cattle▸SHORT | ‖L+98+1.0 | ‖L+100+2.3 | ▸S+100−3.1 | ‖L+99+4.1 | ▸S+100−0.1 | ⚡S+93−2.2 | ▸S+93−0.2 | ⚡S+87−3.3 | ‖L+84+0.2 | ‖L+79−0.0 | ‖L+89+4.0 | ▸S+91−1.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 07 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98 · px +1.0%Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; +1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +2.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 Apr▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −3.1%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.1% → ▸SHORT. 28 AprHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +4.1%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; +4.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 05 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.1% → ▸SHORT. 12 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +93 · px −2.2%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.2% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 19 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px −0.2%Max long ⚑ +93% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.2% → ▸SHORT. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +87 · px −3.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.3% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; +0.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +79% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89 · px +4.0%Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; +4.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px −1.3%Max long ⚑ +91% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.3% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
Two layers: Regime (where the crowd is — Building / Max ⚑ / Squeeze / Neutral, from positioning + flow + price) × Action (your posture — Long/Short/Hold/▸Armed). ▸Armed at a Max ⚑ = the fade waiting for its trigger; the ⚡ week is when it fires.