The COT through 11 Aug 2026. Each cell is one counter in one week: colour = positioning (red short → green long, its rel-to-max), glyph = the action, ⚡ = a squeeze/unwind firing. Read a row left-to-right to see the LONG ↔ SHORT lifecycle — Building → Max ⚑ → ▸armed → Squeeze. Click any counter for its rel-to-max line and the weekly verdict story.
| 26 May | 02 Jun | 09 Jun | 16 Jun | 23 Jun | 30 Jun | 07 Jul | 14 Jul | 21 Jul | 28 Jul | 04 Aug | 11 Aug | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FX | ||||||||||||
| AUDNO TRADE | ▸S+70−0.1 | ·+49−0.2 | ⚡S+21−1.8 | ·−4+0.2 | S−13−1.6 | S−18−0.1 | ·−25+0.5 | ·−31+1.1 | S−37−0.1 | S−40−0.6 | ⚡L−33+1.5 | ·−39+0.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px −0.1%Max long ⚑ +70% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.1% → ▸SHORT. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +49 · px −0.2%Young long cutting (rel +49%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +21 · px −1.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −4 · px +0.2%Young short building (rel -4%), +0.2% → NO TRADE. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −13 · px −1.6%Young short building (rel -13%), -1.6% → SHORT. 30 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −18 · px −0.1%Young short building (rel -18%), -0.1% → SHORT. 07 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −25 · px +0.5%Young short building (rel -25%), +0.5% → NO TRADE. 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −31 · px +1.1%Young short building (rel -31%), +1.1% → NO TRADE. 21 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −37 · px −0.1%Young short building (rel -37%), -0.1% → SHORT. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −40 · px −0.6%Young short steady (rel -40%), -0.6% → SHORT. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −33 · px +1.5%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +1.5% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −39 · px +0.1%Young short building (rel -39%), +0.1% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| CAD▸LONG | S−43−0.7 | S−59−0.4 | ‖S−75−0.3 | ‖S−83−1.1 | ‖S−92−0.9 | ▸L−95+0.1 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−100+0.9 | ‖S−99−0.3 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−97+0.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −43 · px −0.7%Young short building (rel -43%), -0.7% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −59 · px −0.4%Young short building (rel -59%), -0.4% → SHORT. 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -75% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −1.1%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded; -1.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −92 · px −0.9%Max short ⚑ -92% — crowded; -0.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −95 · px +0.1%Max short ⚑ -95% but covering — armed to fade, +0.1% → ▸LONG. 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.3% → ▸LONG. 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.9%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.9% → ▸LONG. 21 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −99 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -99% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.3% → ▸LONG. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.3% → ▸LONG. 11 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -97% but covering — armed to fade, +0.5% → ▸LONG. | ||||||||||||
| CHFHOLD SHORT | ‖S−80−0.0 | ▸L−74−0.6 | ‖S−83−1.0 | ‖S−91−0.0 | ‖S−93−1.5 | ▸L−88+0.4 | ▸L−85+0.1 | ▸L−84+0.4 | ▸L−77−1.2 | ▸L−76+0.1 | ▸L−74+0.8 | ‖S−73−0.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -80% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — armed to fade, -0.6% → ▸LONG. 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −1.0%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded; -1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -91% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −93 · px −1.5%Max short ⚑ -93% — crowded; -1.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −88 · px +0.4%Max short ⚑ -88% but covering — armed to fade, +0.4% → ▸LONG. 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px +0.1%Max short ⚑ -85% but covering — armed to fade, +0.1% → ▸LONG. 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px +0.4%Max short ⚑ -84% but covering — armed to fade, +0.4% → ▸LONG. 21 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -77% but covering — armed to fade, -1.2% → ▸LONG. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −76 · px +0.1%Max short ⚑ -76% but covering — armed to fade, +0.1% → ▸LONG. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — armed to fade, +0.8% → ▸LONG. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -73% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| EURHOLD SHORT | ·+16−0.0 | ·+27−0.2 | ·+8−0.5 | ·+19−0.3 | ·+17−1.2 | ·+1+0.2 | ▸L−100+0.3 | ▸L−78+0.4 | ‖S−100−0.4 | ▸L−100+0.5 | ▸L−80+0.8 | ‖S−83−0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel +16 · px −0.0%No edge — flat positioning (+16%), steady. NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +27 · px −0.2%Young long building (rel +27%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 09 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +8 · px −0.5%No edge — flat positioning (+8%), cutting. NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +19 · px −0.3%Young long building (rel +19%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +17 · px −1.2%No edge — flat positioning (+17%), steady. NO TRADE. 30 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +1 · px +0.2%No edge — flat positioning (+1%), cutting. NO TRADE. 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.3% → ▸LONG. 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −78 · px +0.4%Max short ⚑ -78% but covering — armed to fade, +0.4% → ▸LONG. 21 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.5% → ▸LONG. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -80% but covering — armed to fade, +0.8% → ▸LONG. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| GBPNO TRADE | S−66−0.1 | S−56−0.1 | S−69−0.4 | ‖S−77−0.6 | ‖S−100−0.9 | ▸L−97+0.8 | ▸L−83+0.9 | ·−67+1.1 | S−53−1.2 | S−61−0.1 | ·−55+0.8 | ·−53+0.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −66 · px −0.1%Young short steady (rel -66%), -0.1% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −0.1%Young short cutting (rel -56%), -0.1% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −69 · px −0.4%Young short building (rel -69%), -0.4% → SHORT. 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -77% — crowded; -0.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.9%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px +0.8%Max short ⚑ -97% but covering — armed to fade, +0.8% → ▸LONG. 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px +0.9%Max short ⚑ -83% but covering — armed to fade, +0.9% → ▸LONG. 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −67 · px +1.1%Young short cutting (rel -67%), +1.1% → NO TRADE. 21 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −53 · px −1.2%Young short cutting (rel -53%), -1.2% → SHORT. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −61 · px −0.1%Young short building (rel -61%), -0.1% → SHORT. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −55 · px +0.8%Young short cutting (rel -55%), +0.8% → NO TRADE. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −53 · px +0.2%Young short steady (rel -53%), +0.2% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| JPYSHORT | ‖S−100−0.4 | ‖S−100−0.4 | ‖S−100−0.3 | ‖S−100−0.1 | ‖S−97−0.7 | ‖S−100−0.5 | ▸L−80−0.0 | ▸L−79+0.2 | ‖S−98−0.6 | ‖S−100−0.2 | ⚡L−28+3.6 | S−26−1.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.1%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -97% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -80% but covering — armed to fade, -0.0% → ▸LONG. 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −79 · px +0.2%Max short ⚑ -79% but covering — armed to fade, +0.2% → ▸LONG. 21 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −98 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -98% — crowded; -0.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.2%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −28 · px +3.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.6% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −26 · px −1.0%Young short steady (rel -26%), -1.0% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| MXNHOLD LONG | ·+53−0.3 | L+50+0.1 | ·+58−0.4 | L+66+0.7 | ·+68−1.7 | L+65+0.3 | ▸S+71−0.2 | L+67+1.1 | ·+66−0.1 | ·+66−0.2 | ‖L+70+1.2 | ‖L+77+1.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +53 · px −0.3%Young long steady (rel +53%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +50 · px +0.1%Young long steady (rel +50%), +0.1% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +58 · px −0.4%Young long building (rel +58%), -0.4% → NO TRADE. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +66 · px +0.7%Young long building (rel +66%), +0.7% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +68 · px −1.7%Young long steady (rel +68%), -1.7% → NO TRADE. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +0.3%Young long steady (rel +65%), +0.3% → LONG. 07 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px −0.2%Max long ⚑ +71% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.2% → ▸SHORT. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +67 · px +1.1%Young long steady (rel +67%), +1.1% → LONG. 21 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −0.1%Young long steady (rel +66%), -0.1% → NO TRADE. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −0.2%Young long steady (rel +66%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +1.2%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; +1.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77 · px +1.0%Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; +1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| NZDSHORT | ·−60+0.6 | S−50−0.7 | S−56−1.1 | ‖S−80−0.5 | ‖S−97−2.0 | ▸L−100+0.4 | ▸L−100+0.5 | ▸L−96+2.6 | ▸L−77−0.5 | ‖S−73−0.4 | ⚡L−63+1.6 | S−61−0.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −60 · px +0.6%Young short cutting (rel -60%), +0.6% → NO TRADE. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −0.7%Young short cutting (rel -50%), -0.7% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −1.1%Young short building (rel -56%), -1.1% → SHORT. 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −80 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -80% — crowded; -0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px −2.0%Max short ⚑ -97% — crowded; -2.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.4%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.4% → ▸LONG. 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +0.5% → ▸LONG. 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px +2.6%Max short ⚑ -96% but covering — armed to fade, +2.6% → ▸LONG. 21 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -77% but covering — armed to fade, -0.5% → ▸LONG. 28 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −73 · px −0.4%Max short ⚑ -73% — crowded; -0.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −63 · px +1.6%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +1.6% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −61 · px −0.5%Young short steady (rel -61%), -0.5% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Rates | ||||||||||||
| Ultra 10YHOLD LONG | ‖L+80 | ‖L+89 | ▸S+80 | ‖L+84 | ‖L+84 | ‖L+92 | ‖L+94 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+91 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +94Max long ⚑ +94% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Ultra BondHOLD LONG | ‖L+89 | ‖L+90 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+97 | ‖L+97 | ‖L+94 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+93 | ‖L+93 | ‖L+95 | ▸S+89 | ‖L+90 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +94Max long ⚑ +94% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +89Max long ⚑ +89% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST 10YHOLD LONG | ▸S+84 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+98 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+96 | ‖L+98 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+100 | ‖L+99 | ‖L+98 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST 2YLONG | ‖L+77 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+72 | ‖L+70 | ‖L+78 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+73 | ‖L+72 | ‖L+70 | ‖L+71 | L+65 | L+65 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young long cutting (rel +65%), px n/a → LONG. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +65Young long steady (rel +65%), px n/a → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| UST 5YHOLD LONG | ‖L+71 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+76 | ‖L+77 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+74 | ‖L+75 | ‖L+77 | ‖L+75 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +74Max long ⚑ +74% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +77Max long ⚑ +77% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +75Max long ⚑ +75% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| UST BondHOLD LONG | ‖L+80 | ‖L+81 | ‖L+81 | ‖L+93 | ‖L+100 | ▸S+88 | ‖L+88 | ‖L+90 | ‖L+93 | ‖L+95 | ‖L+92 | ‖L+92 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +81Max long ⚑ +81% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +81Max long ⚑ +81% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +88Max long ⚑ +88% but longs cutting — armed to fade, px n/a → ▸SHORT. 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +88Max long ⚑ +88% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +92Max long ⚑ +92% — crowded; px n/a → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Equity | ||||||||||||
| DowSHORT | ·−61+2.2 | ⚡L−52+1.7 | S−34−0.8 | ·−37+2.2 | S−34−0.6 | ·−37+1.3 | ·−7+1.2 | ·−10−0.8 | ·−13−0.5 | ‖L+100+1.0 | ▸S+93+2.5 | S−5−0.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −61 · px +2.2%Young short building (rel -61%), +2.2% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −52 · px +1.7%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +1.7% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −34 · px −0.8%Young short cutting (rel -34%), -0.8% → SHORT. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −37 · px +2.2%Young short steady (rel -37%), +2.2% → NO TRADE. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −34 · px −0.6%Young short steady (rel -34%), -0.6% → SHORT. 30 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −37 · px +1.3%Young short steady (rel -37%), +1.3% → NO TRADE. 07 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −7 · px +1.2%No edge — flat positioning (-7%), cutting. NO TRADE. 14 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −10 · px −0.8%No edge — flat positioning (-10%), steady. NO TRADE. 21 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −13 · px −0.5%No edge — flat positioning (-13%), steady. NO TRADE. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.0%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +2.5%Max long ⚑ +93% but longs cutting — armed to fade, +2.5% → ▸SHORT. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −5 · px −0.5%Young short building (rel -5%), -0.5% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| MSCI EMNO TRADE | L+24+6.4 | L+48+3.5 | ⚡S+39−7.0 | L+27+4.3 | ·+43−2.1 | L+39+1.8 | ⚡S+24−3.9 | ·+8−0.1 | ·+2−0.5 | S−32−4.6 | L+2+5.8 | ·+15−0.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +24 · px +6.4%Young long steady (rel +24%), +6.4% → LONG. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +48 · px +3.5%Young long building (rel +48%), +3.5% → LONG. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +39 · px −7.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +27 · px +4.3%Young long cutting (rel +27%), +4.3% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −2.1%Young long building (rel +43%), -2.1% → NO TRADE. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +39 · px +1.8%Young long steady (rel +39%), +1.8% → LONG. 07 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +24 · px −3.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel +8 · px −0.1%No edge — flat positioning (+8%), cutting. NO TRADE. 21 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel +2 · px −0.5%No edge — flat positioning (+2%), cutting. NO TRADE. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −32 · px −4.6%Young short building (rel -32%), -4.6% → SHORT. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +2 · px +5.8%Young long building (rel +2%), +5.8% → LONG. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +15 · px −0.9%Young long building (rel +15%), -0.9% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Nasdaq-100HOLD SHORT | ▸L−96+4.1 | ▸L−100+2.2 | ▸L−76−5.1 | ⚡L−69+3.0 | ‖S−77−2.1 | ▸L−100+3.2 | ▸L−86−3.6 | ▸L−100+1.4 | ‖S−100−1.5 | ▸L−85−4.8 | ▸L−100+7.1 | ‖S−96−0.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px +4.1%Max short ⚑ -96% but covering — armed to fade, +4.1% → ▸LONG. 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +2.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +2.2% → ▸LONG. 09 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −76 · px −5.1%Max short ⚑ -76% but covering — armed to fade, -5.1% → ▸LONG. 16 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −69 · px +3.0%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.0% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −77 · px −2.1%Max short ⚑ -77% — crowded; -2.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +3.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +3.2% → ▸LONG. 07 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −86 · px −3.6%Max short ⚑ -86% but covering — armed to fade, -3.6% → ▸LONG. 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.4%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.4% → ▸LONG. 21 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.5%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -1.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −85 · px −4.8%Max short ⚑ -85% but covering — armed to fade, -4.8% → ▸LONG. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +7.1%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +7.1% → ▸LONG. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -96% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Russell 2000HOLD SHORT | ·−58+6.3 | ·−63+0.4 | S−64−2.2 | ▸L−72+2.5 | ·−48+1.2 | ▸L−72+1.6 | S−62−1.4 | ‖S−75−0.6 | ·−63+0.8 | S−64−1.1 | ▸L−74+2.8 | ‖S−100−0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −58 · px +6.3%Young short steady (rel -58%), +6.3% → NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −63 · px +0.4%Young short building (rel -63%), +0.4% → NO TRADE. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −64 · px −2.2%Young short steady (rel -64%), -2.2% → SHORT. 16 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px +2.5%Max short ⚑ -72% but covering — armed to fade, +2.5% → ▸LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −48 · px +1.2%Young short cutting (rel -48%), +1.2% → NO TRADE. 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −72 · px +1.6%Max short ⚑ -72% but covering — armed to fade, +1.6% → ▸LONG. 07 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −62 · px −1.4%Young short cutting (rel -62%), -1.4% → SHORT. 14 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px −0.6%Max short ⚑ -75% — crowded; -0.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −63 · px +0.8%Young short cutting (rel -63%), +0.8% → NO TRADE. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −64 · px −1.1%Young short steady (rel -64%), -1.1% → SHORT. 04 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −74 · px +2.8%Max short ⚑ -74% but covering — armed to fade, +2.8% → ▸LONG. 11 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| S&P 500SHORT | ▸L−96+2.3 | ▸L−100+1.2 | ▸L−91−2.9 | ▸L−100+1.7 | ▸L−71−1.9 | ·−69+1.8 | ‖S−70−0.3 | ▸L−71+0.9 | S−63−0.5 | S−58−1.1 | ·−64+4.1 | S−55−0.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px +2.3%Max short ⚑ -96% but covering — armed to fade, +2.3% → ▸LONG. 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.2%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.2% → ▸LONG. 09 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −2.9%Max short ⚑ -91% but covering — armed to fade, -2.9% → ▸LONG. 16 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.7%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.7% → ▸LONG. 23 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px −1.9%Max short ⚑ -71% but covering — armed to fade, -1.9% → ▸LONG. 30 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −69 · px +1.8%Young short steady (rel -69%), +1.8% → NO TRADE. 07 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −70 · px −0.3%Max short ⚑ -70% — crowded; -0.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px +0.9%Max short ⚑ -71% but covering — armed to fade, +0.9% → ▸LONG. 21 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −63 · px −0.5%Young short cutting (rel -63%), -0.5% → SHORT. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −58 · px −1.1%Young short steady (rel -58%), -1.1% → SHORT. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −64 · px +4.1%Young short building (rel -64%), +4.1% → NO TRADE. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −55 · px −0.1%Young short cutting (rel -55%), -0.1% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Vol | ||||||||||||
| VIXSHORT | S−47−5.8 | S−31−7.3 | ·−33+26.1 | ·−13−17.4 | ·−18+18.6 | ·−2−15.5 | ▸S+100−1.9 | ‖L+100+2.3 | L+30+3.2 | ·−12+6.8 | ·+37−9.4 | S−11−7.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −47 · px −5.8%Young short steady (rel -47%), -5.8% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −31 · px −7.3%Young short cutting (rel -31%), -7.3% → SHORT. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −33 · px +26.1%Young short steady (rel -33%), +26.1% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel −13 · px −17.4%No edge — flat positioning (-13%), cutting. NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −18 · px +18.6%Young short building (rel -18%), +18.6% → NO TRADE. 30 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel −2 · px −15.5%No edge — flat positioning (-2%), cutting. NO TRADE. 07 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.9%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.9% → ▸SHORT. 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +2.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +30 · px +3.2%Young long cutting (rel +30%), +3.2% → LONG. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −12 · px +6.8%Young short building (rel -12%), +6.8% → NO TRADE. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +37 · px −9.4%Young long building (rel +37%), -9.4% → NO TRADE. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −11 · px −7.4%Young short building (rel -11%), -7.4% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Energy | ||||||||||||
| BrentLONG | ⚡S+43−10.2 | L+31+3.7 | ·+35−4.8 | ·+36−14.6 | ·+31−7.3 | ·+29−2.9 | L+55+9.0 | L+56+8.9 | L+64+10.7 | ▸S+71−3.5 | ⚡S+30−12.4 | L+32+12.0 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +43 · px −10.2%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -10.2% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +3.7%Young long cutting (rel +31%), +3.7% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +35 · px −4.8%Young long building (rel +35%), -4.8% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +36 · px −14.6%Young long steady (rel +36%), -14.6% → NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +31 · px −7.3%Young long steady (rel +31%), -7.3% → NO TRADE. 30 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +29 · px −2.9%Young long steady (rel +29%), -2.9% → NO TRADE. 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +55 · px +9.0%Young long building (rel +55%), +9.0% → LONG. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +56 · px +8.9%Young long steady (rel +56%), +8.9% → LONG. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +64 · px +10.7%Young long building (rel +64%), +10.7% → LONG. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px −3.5%Max long ⚑ +71% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.5% → ▸SHORT. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +30 · px −12.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -12.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +32 · px +12.0%Young long steady (rel +32%), +12.0% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| Heating OilLONG | ⚡S+18−8.2 | L+29+9.0 | ⚡S+23−6.1 | ·+23−13.0 | ·+15−1.0 | L+20+3.4 | ·+11+13.7 | L+26+8.0 | L+32+3.0 | L+28+4.2 | ·+28−10.4 | L+34+13.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +18 · px −8.2%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -8.2% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +29 · px +9.0%Young long building (rel +29%), +9.0% → LONG. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +23 · px −6.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +23 · px −13.0%Young long steady (rel +23%), -13.0% → NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +15 · px −1.0%No edge — flat positioning (+15%), cutting. NO TRADE. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +20 · px +3.4%Young long building (rel +20%), +3.4% → LONG. 07 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel +11 · px +13.7%No edge — flat positioning (+11%), cutting. NO TRADE. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +26 · px +8.0%Young long building (rel +26%), +8.0% → LONG. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +32 · px +3.0%Young long building (rel +32%), +3.0% → LONG. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +28 · px +4.2%Young long steady (rel +28%), +4.2% → LONG. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +28 · px −10.4%Young long steady (rel +28%), -10.4% → NO TRADE. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +34 · px +13.4%Young long building (rel +34%), +13.4% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| NatGasLONG | ▸L−100+3.0 | ⚡L−85+3.8 | ‖S−91−0.9 | S−63−1.3 | ·−62+2.4 | S−48−0.0 | S−45−0.2 | ‖S−79−9.0 | ‖S−76−0.0 | ‖S−79−6.9 | ‖S−94−1.2 | ⚡L−82+4.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +3.0%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +3.0% → ▸LONG. 02 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −85 · px +3.8%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.8% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −91 · px −0.9%Max short ⚑ -91% — crowded; -0.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −63 · px −1.3%Young short cutting (rel -63%), -1.3% → SHORT. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −62 · px +2.4%Young short steady (rel -62%), +2.4% → NO TRADE. 30 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −48 · px −0.0%Young short cutting (rel -48%), -0.0% → SHORT. 07 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −45 · px −0.2%Young short steady (rel -45%), -0.2% → SHORT. 14 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −79 · px −9.0%Max short ⚑ -79% — crowded; -9.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −76 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -76% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −79 · px −6.9%Max short ⚑ -79% — crowded; -6.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −94 · px −1.2%Max short ⚑ -94% — crowded; -1.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −82 · px +4.3%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +4.3% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). | ||||||||||||
| RBOBHOLD LONG | ·+67−9.3 | L+68+2.1 | ·+65−0.7 | ·+68−8.9 | ▸S+72−1.5 | ‖L+72+5.5 | ‖L+72+5.4 | L+69+6.4 | ▸S+74−1.7 | ▸S+74−0.6 | ▸S+70−12.0 | ‖L+70+11.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +67 · px −9.3%Young long building (rel +67%), -9.3% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +68 · px +2.1%Young long steady (rel +68%), +2.1% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +65 · px −0.7%Young long steady (rel +65%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +68 · px −8.9%Young long steady (rel +68%), -8.9% → NO TRADE. 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px −1.5%Max long ⚑ +72% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.5% → ▸SHORT. 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px +5.5%Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; +5.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px +5.4%Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; +5.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +69 · px +6.4%Young long steady (rel +69%), +6.4% → LONG. 21 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −1.7%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.7% → ▸SHORT. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −0.6%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.6% → ▸SHORT. 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px −12.0%Max long ⚑ +70% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -12.0% → ▸SHORT. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +11.1%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; +11.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| WTI▸SHORT | ⚡S+46−9.7 | L+52+8.3 | ·+54−6.2 | ·+55−15.6 | ⚡S+47−7.5 | ·+56−2.5 | L+64+7.2 | L+62+8.3 | L+64+9.1 | ▸S+93−2.7 | ⚡S+87−10.9 | ▸S+80+10.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +46 · px −9.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -9.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +52 · px +8.3%Young long building (rel +52%), +8.3% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +54 · px −6.2%Young long steady (rel +54%), -6.2% → NO TRADE. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +55 · px −15.6%Young long steady (rel +55%), -15.6% → NO TRADE. 23 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +47 · px −7.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 30 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −2.5%Young long building (rel +56%), -2.5% → NO TRADE. 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +64 · px +7.2%Young long building (rel +64%), +7.2% → LONG. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +62 · px +8.3%Young long steady (rel +62%), +8.3% → LONG. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +64 · px +9.1%Young long steady (rel +64%), +9.1% → LONG. 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +93% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.7% → ▸SHORT. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +87 · px −10.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -10.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 11 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px +10.7%Max long ⚑ +80% but longs cutting — armed to fade, +10.7% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Metals | ||||||||||||
| Copper▸SHORT | ‖L+93+0.2 | ‖L+100+2.6 | ⚡S+91−3.7 | ‖L+91+3.6 | ▸S+88−8.4 | ▸S+79+3.9 | ▸S+78−1.2 | ‖L+79+3.8 | ‖L+94+2.4 | ⚡S+86−2.8 | ‖L+100+6.6 | ▸S+100−1.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; +0.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +2.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +91 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px +3.6%Max long ⚑ +91% — crowded; +3.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +88 · px −8.4%Max long ⚑ +88% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -8.4% → ▸SHORT. 30 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px +3.9%Max long ⚑ +79% but longs cutting — armed to fade, +3.9% → ▸SHORT. 07 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +78 · px −1.2%Max long ⚑ +78% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.2% → ▸SHORT. 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px +3.8%Max long ⚑ +79% — crowded; +3.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px +2.4%Max long ⚑ +94% — crowded; +2.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +86 · px −2.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +6.6%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +6.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −1.7%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.7% → ▸SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| GoldHOLD LONG | ·+60−1.9 | L+69+0.4 | ·+65−7.5 | ‖L+70+6.0 | ▸S+71−8.5 | ‖L+73+1.8 | ‖L+71−0.0 | ▸S+74−0.7 | ‖L+76+2.5 | ▸S+73−2.8 | ‖L+80+6.7 | ‖L+84+3.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +60 · px −1.9%Young long steady (rel +60%), -1.9% → NO TRADE. 02 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +69 · px +0.4%Young long building (rel +69%), +0.4% → LONG. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +65 · px −7.5%Young long steady (rel +65%), -7.5% → NO TRADE. 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +6.0%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; +6.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px −8.5%Max long ⚑ +71% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -8.5% → ▸SHORT. 30 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px +1.8%Max long ⚑ +73% — crowded; +1.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.7% → ▸SHORT. 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +76 · px +2.5%Max long ⚑ +76% — crowded; +2.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px −2.8%Max long ⚑ +73% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.8% → ▸SHORT. 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +80 · px +6.7%Max long ⚑ +80% — crowded; +6.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +3.8%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; +3.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Palladium▸LONG | ·−48+1.5 | S−53−4.3 | S−67−6.9 | ·−65+9.4 | ‖S−71−13.8 | ▸L−90+4.1 | ‖S−96−0.0 | ▸L−94+5.6 | ▸L−100+1.3 | ▸L−93−4.4 | ⚡L−82+9.4 | ▸L−75+0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −48 · px +1.5%Young short building (rel -48%), +1.5% → NO TRADE. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −53 · px −4.3%Young short building (rel -53%), -4.3% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −67 · px −6.9%Young short building (rel -67%), -6.9% → SHORT. 16 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −65 · px +9.4%Young short steady (rel -65%), +9.4% → NO TRADE. 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −71 · px −13.8%Max short ⚑ -71% — crowded; -13.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −90 · px +4.1%Max short ⚑ -90% but covering — armed to fade, +4.1% → ▸LONG. 07 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −96 · px −0.0%Max short ⚑ -96% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −94 · px +5.6%Max short ⚑ -94% but covering — armed to fade, +5.6% → ▸LONG. 21 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.3%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.3% → ▸LONG. 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −93 · px −4.4%Max short ⚑ -93% but covering — armed to fade, -4.4% → ▸LONG. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −82 · px +9.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +9.4% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 11 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −75 · px +0.3%Max short ⚑ -75% but covering — armed to fade, +0.3% → ▸LONG. | ||||||||||||
| PlatinumLONG | ·+61−1.6 | ·+57−2.8 | ⚡S+40−9.8 | L+38+6.0 | ·+41−11.8 | L+38+1.1 | ·+36−0.8 | L+40+3.4 | L+30+0.7 | ·+31−3.1 | L+52+9.0 | L+37+1.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +61 · px −1.6%Young long steady (rel +61%), -1.6% → NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +57 · px −2.8%Young long steady (rel +57%), -2.8% → NO TRADE. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +40 · px −9.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -9.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +38 · px +6.0%Young long steady (rel +38%), +6.0% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +41 · px −11.8%Young long steady (rel +41%), -11.8% → NO TRADE. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +38 · px +1.1%Young long steady (rel +38%), +1.1% → LONG. 07 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +36 · px −0.8%Young long steady (rel +36%), -0.8% → NO TRADE. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +40 · px +3.4%Young long building (rel +40%), +3.4% → LONG. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +30 · px +0.7%Young long cutting (rel +30%), +0.7% → LONG. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +31 · px −3.1%Young long steady (rel +31%), -3.1% → NO TRADE. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +52 · px +9.0%Young long building (rel +52%), +9.0% → LONG. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +1.3%Young long cutting (rel +37%), +1.3% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| SilverLONG | ·+21−1.7 | ·+21−1.6 | ·+21−12.2 | L+29+9.3 | ·+26−17.9 | L+31+4.2 | ·+30−3.3 | ·+26−1.9 | L+26+5.0 | ·+24−3.7 | L+31+7.2 | L+29+5.5 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −1.7%Young long steady (rel +21%), -1.7% → NO TRADE. 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −1.6%Young long steady (rel +21%), -1.6% → NO TRADE. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +21 · px −12.2%Young long steady (rel +21%), -12.2% → NO TRADE. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +29 · px +9.3%Young long building (rel +29%), +9.3% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +26 · px −17.9%Young long steady (rel +26%), -17.9% → NO TRADE. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +4.2%Young long building (rel +31%), +4.2% → LONG. 07 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +30 · px −3.3%Young long steady (rel +30%), -3.3% → NO TRADE. 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +26 · px −1.9%Young long steady (rel +26%), -1.9% → NO TRADE. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +26 · px +5.0%Young long steady (rel +26%), +5.0% → LONG. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +24 · px −3.7%Young long steady (rel +24%), -3.7% → NO TRADE. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +7.2%Young long building (rel +31%), +7.2% → LONG. 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +29 · px +5.5%Young long steady (rel +29%), +5.5% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| Base·LME | ||||||||||||
| AluminiumHOLD LONG | ‖L+95+3.8 | ▸S+92−3.2 | ⚡S+85−3.1 | ▸S+83−3.8 | ⚡S+74−6.7 | ⚡S+66−2.8 | L+66+1.8 | L+66+0.7 | L+65+0.4 | L+66+1.5 | ‖L+71+2.1 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +95 · px +3.8%Max long ⚑ +95% — crowded; +3.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +92 · px −3.2%Max long ⚑ +92% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.2% → ▸SHORT. 16 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +85 · px −3.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −3.8%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -3.8% → ▸SHORT. 30 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +74 · px −6.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 07 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +66 · px −2.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +66 · px +1.8%Young long steady (rel +66%), +1.8% → LONG. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +66 · px +0.7%Young long steady (rel +66%), +0.7% → LONG. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +0.4%Young long steady (rel +65%), +0.4% → LONG. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +66 · px +1.5%Young long steady (rel +66%), +1.5% → LONG. 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +71 · px +2.1%Max long ⚑ +71% — crowded; +2.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Lead▸LONG | ·−6+1.2 | ·+12−0.7 | S−32−1.4 | S−31−2.2 | ‖S−76−2.6 | ‖S−89−0.7 | ‖S−87−0.5 | ‖S−95−0.5 | ▸L−84+0.7 | ‖S−83−1.0 | ▸L−95+0.5 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 02 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel −6 · px +1.2%No edge — flat positioning (-6%), steady. NO TRADE. 09 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +12 · px −0.7%Young long building (rel +12%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −32 · px −1.4%Young short building (rel -32%), -1.4% → SHORT. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −31 · px −2.2%Young short steady (rel -31%), -2.2% → SHORT. 30 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −76 · px −2.6%Max short ⚑ -76% — crowded; -2.6% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 07 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −89 · px −0.7%Max short ⚑ -89% — crowded; -0.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −87 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -87% — crowded; -0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −95 · px −0.5%Max short ⚑ -95% — crowded; -0.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −84 · px +0.7%Max short ⚑ -84% but covering — armed to fade, +0.7% → ▸LONG. 04 AugHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −83 · px −1.0%Max short ⚑ -83% — crowded; -1.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 Aug▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −95 · px +0.5%Max short ⚑ -95% but covering — armed to fade, +0.5% → ▸LONG. | ||||||||||||
| NickelNO TRADE | ‖L+96+3.1 | ⚡S+90−2.7 | ⚡S+72−4.1 | ·+66−1.2 | ⚡S+42−5.0 | ⚡S+28−1.8 | L+26+2.0 | L+34+1.3 | L+37+2.5 | ·+40−0.7 | ·+36−1.5 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +96 · px +3.1%Max long ⚑ +96% — crowded; +3.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +90 · px −2.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +72 · px −4.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 23 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −1.2%Young long cutting (rel +66%), -1.2% → NO TRADE. 30 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −5.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 07 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +28 · px −1.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +26 · px +2.0%Young long steady (rel +26%), +2.0% → LONG. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +34 · px +1.3%Young long building (rel +34%), +1.3% → LONG. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +2.5%Young long steady (rel +37%), +2.5% → LONG. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +40 · px −0.7%Young long steady (rel +40%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +36 · px −1.5%Young long steady (rel +36%), -1.5% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| ZincHOLD LONG | ‖L+100−0.0 | ▸S+100−0.2 | ‖L+99+1.9 | ▸S+94−0.7 | ⚡S+81−2.0 | ‖L+87+2.2 | ‖L+100+2.0 | ⚡S+91−2.4 | ‖L+97+2.8 | ‖L+98+1.8 | ‖L+100+1.4 | |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; -0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px −0.2%Max long ⚑ +100% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.2% → ▸SHORT. 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +99 · px +1.9%Max long ⚑ +99% — crowded; +1.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.7% → ▸SHORT. 30 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +81 · px −2.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 07 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +87 · px +2.2%Max long ⚑ +87% — crowded; +2.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.0%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +2.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 21 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +91 · px −2.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px +2.8%Max long ⚑ +97% — crowded; +2.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +98 · px +1.8%Max long ⚑ +98% — crowded; +1.8% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +1.4%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +1.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Grains | ||||||||||||
| CornNO TRADE | ⚡S+61−3.7 | ⚡S+35−3.7 | S−1−4.8 | S−26−1.4 | S−39−1.0 | ·−36+1.7 | ·−8+6.5 | ·+3−1.2 | L+16+3.2 | L+37+1.3 | ·+42−3.5 | ·+37−1.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +61 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +35 · px −3.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −1 · px −4.8%Young short building (rel -1%), -4.8% → SHORT. 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −26 · px −1.4%Young short building (rel -26%), -1.4% → SHORT. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −39 · px −1.0%Young short building (rel -39%), -1.0% → SHORT. 30 JunNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −36 · px +1.7%Young short steady (rel -36%), +1.7% → NO TRADE. 07 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −8 · px +6.5%No edge — flat positioning (-8%), cutting. NO TRADE. 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +3 · px −1.2%Young long building (rel +3%), -1.2% → NO TRADE. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +16 · px +3.2%Young long building (rel +16%), +3.2% → LONG. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +1.3%Young long building (rel +37%), +1.3% → LONG. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +42 · px −3.5%Young long building (rel +42%), -3.5% → NO TRADE. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +37 · px −1.2%Young long steady (rel +37%), -1.2% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Soybean MealNO TRADE | ▸S+94−1.1 | ▸S+97−0.7 | ⚡S+42−7.7 | ·+15+2.0 | ·+9−1.9 | ·+4+0.6 | L+14+4.4 | ·+35−0.1 | L+56+3.5 | L+67+0.2 | ⚡S+59−2.9 | ·+56−2.4 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +94 · px −1.1%Max long ⚑ +94% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.1% → ▸SHORT. 02 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +97 · px −0.7%Max long ⚑ +97% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.7% → ▸SHORT. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −7.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +15 · px +2.0%No edge — flat positioning (+15%), cutting. NO TRADE. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +9 · px −1.9%No edge — flat positioning (+9%), cutting. NO TRADE. 30 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +4 · px +0.6%No edge — flat positioning (+4%), steady. NO TRADE. 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +14 · px +4.4%Young long building (rel +14%), +4.4% → LONG. 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +35 · px −0.1%Young long building (rel +35%), -0.1% → NO TRADE. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +56 · px +3.5%Young long building (rel +56%), +3.5% → LONG. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +67 · px +0.2%Young long building (rel +67%), +0.2% → LONG. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +59 · px −2.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +56 · px −2.4%Young long steady (rel +56%), -2.4% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Soybean OilLONG | ▸S+83−1.4 | ‖L+90+5.4 | ⚡S+77−4.5 | ▸S+73−2.7 | ⚡S+61−8.7 | ⚡S+55−1.8 | L+51+2.9 | L+64+5.1 | ‖L+72+1.3 | ⚡S+64−3.8 | ⚡S+47−2.0 | L+47+0.9 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −1.4%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.4% → ▸SHORT. 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +90 · px +5.4%Max long ⚑ +90% — crowded; +5.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +77 · px −4.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +73 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +73% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.7% → ▸SHORT. 23 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +61 · px −8.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -8.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 30 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +55 · px −1.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +51 · px +2.9%Young long steady (rel +51%), +2.9% → LONG. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +64 · px +5.1%Young long building (rel +64%), +5.1% → LONG. 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +72 · px +1.3%Max long ⚑ +72% — crowded; +1.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +64 · px −3.8%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.8% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +47 · px −2.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 11 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +47 · px +0.9%Young long steady (rel +47%), +0.9% → LONG. | ||||||||||||
| SoybeansNO TRADE | ⚡S+79−1.9 | ⚡S+67−1.7 | ⚡S+42−4.4 | L+23+2.9 | ·+16−0.4 | ·+16+0.2 | L+30+4.7 | ·+32−0.6 | L+56+2.7 | ·+69−0.2 | ⚡S+57−3.5 | ·+47−0.8 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +79 · px −1.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +67 · px −1.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -1.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +42 · px −4.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -4.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +23 · px +2.9%Young long cutting (rel +23%), +2.9% → LONG. 23 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +16 · px −0.4%No edge — flat positioning (+16%), cutting. NO TRADE. 30 JunNO TRADENeutral · rel +16 · px +0.2%No edge — flat positioning (+16%), steady. NO TRADE. 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +30 · px +4.7%Young long building (rel +30%), +4.7% → LONG. 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +32 · px −0.6%Young long steady (rel +32%), -0.6% → NO TRADE. 21 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +56 · px +2.7%Young long building (rel +56%), +2.7% → LONG. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +69 · px −0.2%Young long building (rel +69%), -0.2% → NO TRADE. 04 AugSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +57 · px −3.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +47 · px −0.8%Young long cutting (rel +47%), -0.8% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Wheat HRWNO TRADE | ⚡S+74−3.9 | ⚡S+37−6.1 | S−6−0.6 | L+22+1.6 | S−1−2.5 | L+13−0.0 | L+23+4.4 | L+36+3.9 | ‖L+70+8.1 | ▸S+83−0.9 | ▸S+83−2.7 | ·+67−1.1 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +74 · px −3.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +37 · px −6.1%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.1% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −6 · px −0.6%Young short building (rel -6%), -0.6% → SHORT. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +22 · px +1.6%Young long building (rel +22%), +1.6% → LONG. 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −1 · px −2.5%Young short building (rel -1%), -2.5% → SHORT. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +13 · px −0.0%Young long building (rel +13%), +0.0% → LONG. 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +23 · px +4.4%Young long building (rel +23%), +4.4% → LONG. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +36 · px +3.9%Young long building (rel +36%), +3.9% → LONG. 21 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +70 · px +8.1%Max long ⚑ +70% — crowded; +8.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 28 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −0.9%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.9% → ▸SHORT. 04 Aug▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −2.7%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -2.7% → ▸SHORT. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +67 · px −1.1%Young long cutting (rel +67%), -1.1% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Wheat SRWSHORT | S−14−4.8 | S−48−5.1 | S−68−2.9 | ⚡L−61+3.2 | S−62−1.2 | S−59−1.3 | ⚡L−53+5.0 | ⚡L−31+4.3 | ·−16+5.1 | ·−7−2.3 | S−22−3.6 | S−29−1.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −14 · px −4.8%Young short building (rel -14%), -4.8% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −48 · px −5.1%Young short building (rel -48%), -5.1% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −68 · px −2.9%Young short building (rel -68%), -2.9% → SHORT. 16 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −61 · px +3.2%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.2% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 23 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −62 · px −1.2%Young short steady (rel -62%), -1.2% → SHORT. 30 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −59 · px −1.3%Young short steady (rel -59%), -1.3% → SHORT. 07 JulLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −53 · px +5.0%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +5.0% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 14 JulLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −31 · px +4.3%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +4.3% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 21 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −16 · px +5.1%No edge — flat positioning (-16%), cutting. NO TRADE. 28 JulNO TRADENeutral · rel −7 · px −2.3%No edge — flat positioning (-7%), cutting. NO TRADE. 04 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −22 · px −3.6%Young short building (rel -22%), -3.6% → SHORT. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −29 · px −1.3%Young short building (rel -29%), -1.3% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Softs | ||||||||||||
| CocoaSHORT | ▸L−81+6.7 | ‖S−97−1.5 | ‖S−100−6.7 | ⚡L−89+10.5 | ⚡L−78+9.7 | ⚡L−46+9.3 | ⚡L−25+13.4 | ·−31+0.8 | S−30−3.4 | S−38−7.2 | ⚡L−20+13.9 | S−29−4.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 May▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −81 · px +6.7%Max short ⚑ -81% but covering — armed to fade, +6.7% → ▸LONG. 02 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −97 · px −1.5%Max short ⚑ -97% — crowded; -1.5% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −6.7%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -6.7% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −89 · px +10.5%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +10.5% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 23 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −78 · px +9.7%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +9.7% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 30 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −46 · px +9.3%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +9.3% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 07 JulLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −25 · px +13.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +13.4% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 14 JulNO TRADEBuilding short · rel −31 · px +0.8%Young short building (rel -31%), +0.8% → NO TRADE. 21 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −30 · px −3.4%Young short steady (rel -30%), -3.4% → SHORT. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −38 · px −7.2%Young short building (rel -38%), -7.2% → SHORT. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −20 · px +13.9%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +13.9% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −29 · px −4.6%Young short building (rel -29%), -4.6% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| CoffeeNO TRADE | L+46+1.4 | ⚡S+39−5.4 | ⚡S+24−5.7 | L+28+11.6 | L+42+1.2 | L+55+7.4 | L+69+7.1 | L+65+2.7 | ·+66−1.2 | L+67+5.4 | ·+63−4.5 | ·+65−2.6 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayLONGBuilding long · rel +46 · px +1.4%Young long steady (rel +46%), +1.4% → LONG. 02 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +39 · px −5.4%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.4% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +24 · px −5.7%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -5.7% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +28 · px +11.6%Young long building (rel +28%), +11.6% → LONG. 23 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +42 · px +1.2%Young long building (rel +42%), +1.2% → LONG. 30 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +55 · px +7.4%Young long building (rel +55%), +7.4% → LONG. 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +69 · px +7.1%Young long building (rel +69%), +7.1% → LONG. 14 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +65 · px +2.7%Young long steady (rel +65%), +2.7% → LONG. 21 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +66 · px −1.2%Young long steady (rel +66%), -1.2% → NO TRADE. 28 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +67 · px +5.4%Young long steady (rel +67%), +5.4% → LONG. 04 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +63 · px −4.5%Young long steady (rel +63%), -4.5% → NO TRADE. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +65 · px −2.6%Young long steady (rel +65%), -2.6% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| CottonHOLD LONG | ⚡S+93−6.0 | ▸S+84−0.4 | ⚡S+71−7.5 | L+56+9.1 | L+59+1.3 | ⚡S+49−2.5 | L+58+5.8 | ▸S+74−0.5 | ▸S+79−0.6 | ‖L+78+0.1 | ‖L+93+2.4 | ‖L+100+2.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +93 · px −6.0%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -6.0% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px −0.4%Max long ⚑ +84% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.4% → ▸SHORT. 09 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +71 · px −7.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -7.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +56 · px +9.1%Young long cutting (rel +56%), +9.1% → LONG. 23 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +59 · px +1.3%Young long steady (rel +59%), +1.3% → LONG. 30 JunSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +49 · px −2.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 07 JulLONGBuilding long · rel +58 · px +5.8%Young long building (rel +58%), +5.8% → LONG. 14 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +74 · px −0.5%Max long ⚑ +74% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.5% → ▸SHORT. 21 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px −0.6%Max long ⚑ +79% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -0.6% → ▸SHORT. 28 JulHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +78 · px +0.1%Max long ⚑ +78% — crowded; +0.1% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 04 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +93 · px +2.4%Max long ⚑ +93% — crowded; +2.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +2.3%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +2.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| SugarHOLD LONG | S−37−3.1 | S−50−1.1 | S−52−2.1 | S−65−1.8 | ‖S−78−2.9 | ⚡L−66+10.4 | ⚡L−46+2.2 | S−43−1.7 | S−43−0.0 | S−49−2.2 | ⚡L−37+3.4 | ‖L+100+11.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORTBuilding short · rel −37 · px −3.1%Young short steady (rel -37%), -3.1% → SHORT. 02 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −50 · px −1.1%Young short building (rel -50%), -1.1% → SHORT. 09 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −52 · px −2.1%Young short steady (rel -52%), -2.1% → SHORT. 16 JunSHORTBuilding short · rel −65 · px −1.8%Young short building (rel -65%), -1.8% → SHORT. 23 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −78 · px −2.9%Max short ⚑ -78% — crowded; -2.9% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 30 JunLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −66 · px +10.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +10.4% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 07 JulLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −46 · px +2.2%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +2.2% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 14 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −43 · px −1.7%Young short steady (rel -43%), -1.7% → SHORT. 21 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −43 · px −0.0%Young short steady (rel -43%), +0.0% → SHORT. 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −49 · px −2.2%Young short building (rel -49%), -2.2% → SHORT. 04 AugLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −37 · px +3.4%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.4% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 11 AugHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +100 · px +11.2%Max long ⚑ +100% — crowded; +11.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). | ||||||||||||
| Livestock | ||||||||||||
| Feeder CattleNO TRADE | ⚡S+30−3.9 | ·+31−0.3 | L+31+1.6 | L+37+3.6 | L+43+0.3 | ·+43−1.0 | ·+40−1.1 | ⚡S+31−3.3 | ·+26−1.1 | ·+25−2.2 | L+31+2.6 | ·+33−0.3 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +30 · px −3.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +31 · px −0.3%Young long steady (rel +31%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. 09 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +1.6%Young long steady (rel +31%), +1.6% → LONG. 16 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +37 · px +3.6%Young long building (rel +37%), +3.6% → LONG. 23 JunLONGBuilding long · rel +43 · px +0.3%Young long building (rel +43%), +0.3% → LONG. 30 JunNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +43 · px −1.0%Young long steady (rel +43%), -1.0% → NO TRADE. 07 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +40 · px −1.1%Young long steady (rel +40%), -1.1% → NO TRADE. 14 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +31 · px −3.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.3% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 21 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +26 · px −1.1%Young long steady (rel +26%), -1.1% → NO TRADE. 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +25 · px −2.2%Young long steady (rel +25%), -2.2% → NO TRADE. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +31 · px +2.6%Young long building (rel +31%), +2.6% → LONG. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +33 · px −0.3%Young long steady (rel +33%), -0.3% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
| Lean HogsSHORT | ·+1−2.0 | ▸L−100+1.5 | ‖S−100−5.4 | ‖S−100−1.4 | ▸L−100+2.6 | ▸L−100+1.0 | ‖S−100−1.3 | ▸L−100+1.6 | ⚡L−64+3.1 | S−44−13.0 | S−44−4.4 | S−56−1.2 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MayNO TRADENeutral · rel +1 · px −2.0%No edge — flat positioning (+1%), cutting. NO TRADE. 02 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.5%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.5% → ▸LONG. 09 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −5.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -5.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.4%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -1.4% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +2.6%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +2.6% → ▸LONG. 30 Jun▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.0%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.0% → ▸LONG. 07 JulHOLD SHORTMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px −1.3%Max short ⚑ -100% — crowded; -1.3% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 14 Jul▸LONGMax short ⚑ · rel −100 · px +1.6%Max short ⚑ -100% but covering — armed to fade, +1.6% → ▸LONG. 21 JulLONG ⚡Squeeze ↑ · rel −64 · px +3.1%Short squeeze FIRING — covering + +3.1% → LONG (fade, take profit into the snap). 28 JulSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −13.0%Young short cutting (rel -44%), -13.0% → SHORT. 04 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −44 · px −4.4%Young short steady (rel -44%), -4.4% → SHORT. 11 AugSHORTBuilding short · rel −56 · px −1.2%Young short building (rel -56%), -1.2% → SHORT. | ||||||||||||
| Live CattleNO TRADE | ⚡S+87−3.3 | ‖L+84+0.2 | ‖L+79−0.0 | ‖L+89+4.0 | ▸S+91−1.3 | ▸S+87−1.5 | ▸S+83−1.6 | ⚡S+71−2.9 | ⚡S+55−3.5 | ·+49−0.5 | L+47+2.6 | ·+48−0.7 |
Positioning vs price · 12 wks — do they agree? positioning (rel-to-max) price⚡ squeeze fired✓/✗ call worked next wk Lines together = CONFIRM (trend). Lines pulling apart = a trapped crowd → the squeeze. 26 MaySHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +87 · px −3.3%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.3% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 02 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +84 · px +0.2%Max long ⚑ +84% — crowded; +0.2% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 09 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +79 · px −0.0%Max long ⚑ +79% — crowded; +0.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 16 JunHOLD LONGMax long ⚑ · rel +89 · px +4.0%Max long ⚑ +89% — crowded; +4.0% → HOLD/ride (squeeze risk, no fresh max). 23 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +91 · px −1.3%Max long ⚑ +91% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.3% → ▸SHORT. 30 Jun▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +87 · px −1.5%Max long ⚑ +87% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.5% → ▸SHORT. 07 Jul▸SHORTMax long ⚑ · rel +83 · px −1.6%Max long ⚑ +83% but longs cutting — armed to fade, -1.6% → ▸SHORT. 14 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +71 · px −2.9%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -2.9% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 21 JulSHORT ⚡Unwind ↓ · rel +55 · px −3.5%Long unwind FIRING — cutting + -3.5% → SHORT (fade, take profit into the flush). 28 JulNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +49 · px −0.5%Young long cutting (rel +49%), -0.5% → NO TRADE. 04 AugLONGBuilding long · rel +47 · px +2.6%Young long steady (rel +47%), +2.6% → LONG. 11 AugNO TRADEBuilding long · rel +48 · px −0.7%Young long steady (rel +48%), -0.7% → NO TRADE. | ||||||||||||
Two layers: Regime (where the crowd is — Building / Max ⚑ / Squeeze / Neutral, from positioning + flow + price) × Action (your posture — Long/Short/Hold/▸Armed). ▸Armed at a Max ⚑ = the fade waiting for its trigger; the ⚡ week is when it fires.