Cross-Asset COT · 25 Aug 2026

The board — and what changed

Each market as a signed share of its own 1-year positioning extreme at the Tue 25-Aug close. Green = crowd long, red = crowd short (currencies per currency). Tap a tile for its read.

Risk compass · at the close

73 / 100

Grains got more crowded; the Dow trade vanished

Rates

+85

Grains

+65

Softs

+54

Energy

+37

Metals

+33

Base · LME

+27

Livestock

−3

Volatility

−29

FX ccys · short

−31

Equities

−38

Signed mean rel-to-max by class. Rates +85 barely moved; Grains +65 overtook everything; Equities −38 after the Dow’s record long evaporated; FX ccys −31 drained from −42 as five G10 shorts covered.

Cross-asset positioning heatmap

Rates

UST Bond+87
UST 10Y+99
Ultra 10Y+99
Ultra Bond+89
UST 5Y+76
UST 2Y+62

Energy

WTI+84

RBOB+80

Heat Oil+42

Brent+32

NatGas−53

Metals

Copper+97

Gold+89

Steel HRC+61

Platinum+49

Silver+36

Aluminum−17

Palladium−83

Base · LME

Zinc+99

Aluminium+72

Nickel+37

Lead−100

Grains

Wheat HRW+100
Corn+92
Soybeans+86
Soybean Meal+73
Soybean Oil+51
Wheat SRW−12

Livestock

Live Cattle+43

Feeder+32

Lean Hogs−84

Softs

Sugar+100

Cotton+100

Coffee+62

Cocoa−45

Vol

VIX−29

Ccys vs USD

MXN+75

JPY−39

AUD−53

NZD−22

GBP−42

CHF−45

EUR−50

CAD−68

Equities

Dow−6

MSCI EM+19

S&P 500−63

Nasdaq−44

Russell−98

SHORT −100+100 LONG· tap a tile for the read

What changed vs the 18-Aug print tap a card for the why

GrainsCROWD LONG→CROWD LONG ⚑

From a building crowd to a maxed one

Last week corn and SRW were a confirming trend, not a fresh flip — corn at rel 53, SRW still short at rel −22. This week corn added a record +90,287 longs AND covered −45,469 shorts in one print (rel 92), the biggest single-week build in this dataset, on tight world stocks and Black Sea wheat disruption. Wheat HRW hit a fresh MAXED rel +100; soybeans surged to rel 86. Corn and HRW have gone from confirming to genuinely crowded in a single week — the call shifts from LONG to HOLD on both, with SRW wheat (still only rel −12) now the cleanest fresh long left.

Equities—→—

The board’s biggest trap simply left

Last week the Dow flipped from a small net short to a RECORD net long in a single week (rel 100, Δrel +105) into a falling index — called the board’s biggest trap, primed but not fireable. This week that long was cut almost back to flat (rel −6, Δrel −106, itself the single biggest swing on this print) as the Dow actually rose. The trap did not get shorted; the crowd that built it simply exited. The Russell short, unresolved for three straight weeks now, remains the one open extreme in equities.

FX · USD/CAD & the dollarCROWD SHORT→COVERING

The loonie short-cover is spent; USD/CAD back at its 200-day

Last week: the trigger fired, the pair broke to 1.3763, and the loonie short kept covering (+15,196, rel −97 → −88). This week the covering continued even harder (+36,644, rel −88 → −68, no longer flagged) as USD/CAD rallied back to 1.3901 — essentially at its own 20-day and back above the 200-day that started the trade. DXY itself round-tripped: a 9-week low through the COT week, then a bounce back to roughly flat by the time of this report. The live short converts to a close.

Metals · preciousCROWD LONG ⚑→CROWD LONG ⚑

The stale window caught up, then paused

Last week gold’s print was already a week stale — a −0.5% COT-week close with the metal having since ripped +5.9%. This week the COT window finally caught that exact move (+6.2% cotwk) — and then gold gave back −3.5% since as yields backed up hard. Platinum built the single biggest metals position of the week (rel 34 → 49) and silver confirmed cleanly (rel 30 → 36); both still have real fuel. Gold’s crowd has arrived; the other two haven’t yet.

Rates—→—

Seven weeks of getting heavier, then the first crack

Last week asset managers added across almost the entire curve at once — a fresh RECORD 30Y (rel +100), adds everywhere except a cut at the 2Y. This week the 30Y itself got CUT −75,719, the single biggest reduction anywhere on the curve, taking rel 100 → 87 — the first real reduction on the curve in seven weeks. The front end repriced sharply higher in yield since the print (2Y +18bp) as the Fed-path narrative shifted from a possible hike scare toward a plain September hold.

Softs · sugar & cocoaCROWD LONG ⚑→CROWD LONG ⚑

Sugar cracked, cocoa fired

Last week sugar bought ANOTHER +95,029 on top of a record cover, still maxed at rel +100, with Brazil’s weather described as turning against the deficit case. This week specs bought +59,404 more into sugar’s first FALLING COT week in a month — and Brazil’s revised Conab numbers now show output actually falling on ethanol diversion, reversing that framing. Meanwhile cocoa, last week’s cleanest sub-extreme squeeze-long, deepened its short again and then got an actual catalyst: Ghana’s Cocoa Board cut its crop estimate −13%, and cocoa ripped +14.1% since print. One softs trade got more uncertain; the other converted from a watch to a live long.

Biggest positioning shifts Δ rel-to-max, this wk vs last · top 5

	Market	Class	rel · last → now	Δ
	Dow	Equities	+100 → −6	−106
The single biggest positioning swing on this print, reversing last week’s own record swing: lev funds cut a RECORD net long almost back to flat as the Dow actually rose +0.4%. The trap dissolved without ever triggering a short.
	Corn	Grains	+53 → +92	+39
The biggest single-week build in this dataset: +90,287 longs added AND −45,469 shorts covered as tight world stocks and Black Sea wheat disruption kept the complex bid. Corn +8.0% cotwk, +7.2% since. Nearly maxed.
	EUR	FX	−82 → −50	+32
The record short was cut nearly in HALF in a single week (+22,736 covered) as EUR ground higher in the COT week — then fell back below its 200-day, a failed breakout.
	NZD	FX	−50 → −22	+28
The second-biggest FX move on the board: shorts covered +18,381 as the kiwi firmed +1.8% cotwk. The multi-week unwind is nearly complete.
	Nasdaq-100	Equities	−67 → −44	+23
The record short kept covering into weakness (+23,393) as the index fell −1.0% cotwk. Real de-risking, still no price reward.

Positioning risk — where the tails are

Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. Flags for exposure and stops — the trades come from v2 · newcot.

SQUEEZE FUELCrowded short, shorts pressing — long-biased.

SQUEEZE FIRINGThe squeeze in progress — fuel being spent.

UNWIND TAILCrowded long, still adding — do not add; not a short.

TIGHT · NEVER SHORTPhysically tight — the short veto.

Squeeze fuel — crowded shorts still pressing (long-biased)

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
Lead (LME)	Fresh RECORD short −100, deepened −3,299 into a +0.9% rise	Crowded fuel at a new extreme, no scarcity narrative to light it yet. A tail on any short, not an entry.
Lean Hogs	Crowd −84, shorts +4,881 added	Genuinely crowded; the squeeze risk grows every week the short deepens.
Palladium	Crowd −83, short deepening while price +3.1% cotwk / +7.2% since	A trapped short getting more offside each week — fuel smouldering, no catalyst to size it.

Squeeze firing / fired — fuel being spent

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
Cocoa	Crowd −45, short deepened, then +14.1% since on Ghana’s −13% crop cut	The squeeze is firing, with a real catalyst behind it. Fuel being spent.
Wheat SRW	Crowd −22 → −12, shorts covering hard, +11.5% since	Largely fired; the remaining fuel is thin.
Dollar shorts (EUR · CAD · NZD · GBP · CHF)	EUR −82→−50, CAD −88→−68, NZD −50→−22 — broad covering	The currency-short wall is being spent, not squeezed. FX = context only; JPY/AUD still building shorts are the next fuel.

Unwind tail — crowded longs still adding (do not add · NOT a short)

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
Corn · Wheat HRW · Soybeans	Rel 92 / 100 / 86 — the biggest build in the dataset	The crowd is fully in. Do NOT add — and never short it: a crowded long unwinds on its own timetable (0/7 yrs for shorts).
UST 10Y · Ultra-10Y · Bonds	AM rel 99 / 99 / 87 — the 30Y took its first cut in 7 weeks (−75,719)	Duration crowd cracking at the edges as yields back up (+11–18bp since). Do not add duration.
Gold · Sugar · RBOB · MXN	Gold 89 added into the rally then −3.5%; Sugar +100 bought +59k into a falling week; RBOB 80; MXN +75	Crowds that added as the move paused or turned — offside builds. Tails, not shorts.

Tight — the short veto (long-biased)

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
Copper	Record long 97 + Sec-232 / COMEX–LME tightness	Never short; long-biased — but a record crowd, so no fresh size either.
LME Zinc · Aluminium	Zinc 99, Aluminium 72 — backwardated, LME calls it tight	Never short. The one LME long crowd backed by physical.
Cattle · Coffee · Cotton	75-yr-low herd; slow Brazil harvest; cotton at rel +100	Never short any of them. Cotton is maxed AND tight — do not chase either side.

Do not force these

Chasing the runawayCorn at rel 92 and HRW at 100 — the premium entry was at rel 37–53, two weeks ago. Hold what is on; do not add.

Waiting for a short that never comesThe Dow’s record long was sold quietly, not squeezed. An unresolved trap is not a coiled short.

Fading fuel with no catalystPalladium’s short has deepened three weeks into a rally — fuel, not a trade, until a driver appears (cocoa had Ghana).

Why no trades: the 6-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at 1–8 week holds and shorting a crowded long the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). v1 displays; v2 decides.

Positioning vs price — the same-week read

How each crowd moved versus how price moved in the same week (Tue 18 → 25 Aug). CONFIRM = they agreed; DIVERGE = a crowd offside. Tap + for the read.

	Market	Positioning move · the week	Crowd	Px · 18→25 Aug	Read	· since
	Corn	longs ADDED +90,287, shorts COVERED −45,469 — rel 53 → 92	LONG +92%	+8.0%	CONFIRM ✓	+7.2%
The biggest single-week build in this dataset. Tight world corn stocks, surging soy-crush demand and Black Sea war disruption to Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports kept the whole grain complex bid this week, and corn led it: net swung from +181,692 to +317,448, rel 53 → 92, as corn rose +8.0% in the COT week to $5.365 and +7.2% more since. RSI 81 — genuinely overbought now. Nearly maxed: this is a hold-and-trail, not a fresh add — the window to enter has passed.
	Wheat (SRW / HRW)	SRW short COVERED −3,141 · HRW long REBUILT +11,017	SHORT −12% · LONG +100% ⚑	+3.2% / +1.6%	CONFIRM ✓	+11.5% / +9.5%
Both wheat books kept moving on the same tight-supply catalyst. SRW is still net SHORT (−13,597) but the crowd covered −3,141 more (net +11,731, rel −22 → −12) as it rose +3.2% in the COT week and +11.5% since — the best move on the entire board, and still the cleanest, least-crowded leg of the complex. HRW’s long REBUILT to a fresh MAXED extreme (+8,523, shorts −2,494, net +11,017, rel 83 → 100) as it rose +1.6% and +9.5% more since. HRW is now a hold, not an add; SRW is the trade left with real fuel.
	Soybeans	longs ADDED +41,889, shorts COVERED −7,008	LONG +86%	+1.7%	CONFIRM ✓	+4.1%
Another huge build — net +48,897, rel 65 → 86 — as beans rose +1.7% in the COT week to $12.88 and +4.1% since, riding the same tight-stocks wave as corn and wheat. Soybean meal confirmed the same way (rel 63 → 73), while soybean oil actually reversed (longs cut, shorts added, net −6,117, rel 54 → 51) — the one leg of the complex that turned this week. Beans are genuinely crowded now at rel 86: hold and trail, not a fresh entry.
	Sugar	shorts COVERED −15,730 but longs ADDED +43,674 into a FALLING price	LONG +100% ⚑	−1.1%	DIVERGE ⚠	+1.7%
The first real crack. Specs bought ANOTHER +59,404 (net +198,017) on top of two prior record-size weeks — still maxed at rel +100 — but this time sugar FELL −1.1% in the COT week to 17.56c, its first negative COT-week close in a month. Brazil’s revised Conab data now shows sugar output actually falling (−2.9%) even as cane volume rises, on ethanol diversion — the physical case looks tighter than last week’s "drier/favourable weather" framing suggested, not looser. Extremity is fuel, not a gate, but with the crowd now buying into weakness this is a hold-and-watch, not an add.
	WTI crude	shorts ADDED +4,803, outpacing longs +1,344	LONG +84%	−2.0%	CONFIRM ✓	+1.3%
The crowd itself started trimming from a fresh cycle high. Net fell −3,459 (rel 88 → 84) as WTI fell −2.0% in the COT week to $83.40 and bounced +1.3% since. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the EIA still models Brent averaging ~$87 in 2026 — the physical case is unchanged, but the position itself just turned for the first time in weeks. Watch for further liquidation before sizing a fresh long.
	Gold	longs ADDED +5,224 as the COT-week window finally caught the rally	LONG +89% ⚑	+6.2%	CONFIRM ✓	−3.5%
Last week’s stale print caught up. Longs ADDED +5,224 (net +3,099, rel 87 → 89) as gold ran +6.2% in the COT week to $4,530 — the exact rally that was "since print" last week — and then it gave back −3.5% since as September-hold odds firmed and yields backed up hard across the curve. The crowd arrived right as the move paused. At rel +89 this is a hold — the entry with more fuel left is silver or platinum, both still meaningfully sub-extreme on the identical macro sponsor.
	Silver	both legs moved the RIGHT way as price rose	LONG +36%	+7.3%	CONFIRM ✓	−1.3%
Under-owned strength, still. Longs added +1,888, shorts covered −490 (net +2,378, rel 30 → 36) as silver rose +7.3% in the COT week to $67.79, then eased −1.3% since. Rel is still well under gold’s crowded 89. RSI 59, still below the 200-day ($71.86). The crowd is confirming, but there is real room left before this looks anything like gold.
	Platinum	the single biggest metals build of the week	LONG +49%	+7.4%	CONFIRM ✓	−0.4%
Longs ADDED +3,262 (net +3,014, rel 34 → 49) — the largest weekly position change of any metal on the board — as platinum ran +7.4% in the COT week to $1,854, the best move of any metal, easing only −0.4% since. RSI 61, Buy-rated, still below the 200-day ($1,940). Sub-extreme with real fuel — the best-positioned metal on the board right now.
	Dow (DJIA)	lev funds cut a RECORD long almost back to flat — Δrel −106	FLAT −6%	+0.4%	FLAT	−0.0%
The board’s biggest trap from last week simply dissolved. Leveraged funds cut the RECORD net long (+3,737, rel 100) almost back to flat (−1,635, rel −6, Δrel −106 — the single biggest positioning swing on this entire print, in either direction) as the Dow rose +0.4% in the COT week to 53,565 and held since. It never triggered the three-condition squeeze test on the way down, because the crowd simply exited rather than getting forced out. Nothing to trade here — watching for the next extreme to form.
	USD/CAD (loonie short)	record short COVERED −36,644 — the biggest FX move on the board again	SHORT −68%	+0.4%	FLAT	−0.4%
Take the win. The trigger that fired two weeks ago kept paying — the loonie short covered a further +36,644 (rel −88 → −68), no longer even a flagged extreme — as CAD firmed through the COT week. USD/CAD is back at 1.3901, essentially AT its 20-day (1.3905) and back ABOVE the 200-day (1.3842) that was the entry trigger. The fuel that justified the short is largely spent and price is testing the exact level that started the trade. CLOSE USD/CAD; take the profit.
	EUR/USD (euro short)	record short CUT IN HALF in a single week	SHORT −50%	+0.9%	CONFIRM ✓	−0.8%
The biggest relative FX move of the print. The euro short was cut nearly in half — +22,736 covered, rel −82 → −50 — as EUR ground +0.9% higher in the COT week, clearing its 200-day intraweek — then fell back BELOW it (1.163) to close at 1.1578, a failed breakout. Most of the fuel that justified this long is now spent. Hold what you have; no fresh add until the crowd is offside again.
	NatGas	record short COVERED −28,407 — the position has normalized	SHORT −53%	−0.2%	FLAT	+4.3%
Six straight weeks of the same short being squeezed, and this was the biggest single cover yet. The record short bought back +28,407 (longs +3,886, shorts −24,521), rel −74 → −53 — no longer even a flagged extreme — as gas ticked −0.2% in the COT week and rose +4.3% since to $2.888. The position has essentially run its course. CLOSE what is left; there is nothing left to squeeze.
	Copper	shorts ADDED into a RISING price at a still-RECORD extreme	LONG +97%	+3.4%	DIVERGE ⚠	−0.8%
A record long taking profit into strength rather than adding to it. Shorts added +2,387 (net −2,377, rel 100 → 97) while copper rose +3.4% in the COT week to $6.66 then eased −0.8% since. The Section 232 tariff overhang and LME tightness still veto the short — but a maxed crowd selling into a rally is a de-risking read, not a fresh signal in either direction.
	Cocoa	short DEEPENED into a falling COT week, then the crop news hit	SHORT −45%	−1.5%	CONFIRM ✓	+14.1%
The squeeze that was building for weeks just got its confirmation. The short deepened −1,087 (net −10,458, rel −41 → −45) as cocoa fell −1.5% in the COT week — a clean CONFIRM↓ — and then it ripped +14.1% since as Ghana’s Cocoa Board cut its 2026/27 crop estimate to 650,000 MT, down −13% y/y. Sub-extreme, trapped, and now backed by an actual supply catalyst. LONG — the squeeze has fired.

Since the print — technicalssecondary timing layer · 25 → 28 Aug · not the thesis

	Asset	Now	Trend	RSI(14)	Vol ATR%	TV rating
	Corn	$5.365	▲ up	81	2.3%	Strong Buy
The biggest single-week build in this dataset. Managed money added +90,287 longs AND covered −45,469 shorts (net +135,756, rel 37 → 92) as tight world stocks, surging soy-crush demand and Black Sea disruption to Russian/Ukrainian wheat kept the complex bid. Corn rose +8.0% in the COT week to $5.365 and +7.2% more since. RSI 81 — genuinely overbought now — ADX 36, above every SMA, Buy-rated. Nearly maxed at rel 92: hold and trail, do not chase.
	Wheat (SRW)	$7.84	▲ up	82	3.0%	Strong Buy
The cleanest leg of the complex, still short but running out of short. Shorts −3,141 covered (net +11,731, rel −22 → −12) as SRW rose +3.2% in the COT week to $7.84 and +11.5% more since — the best move on the entire board — on the same tight-supply read. RSI 82, above every SMA, Buy-rated. Real fuel remains; still the top pick.
	Wheat (HRW)	$8.44	▲ up	79	3.0%	Buy
Hit a fresh MAXED extreme: +8,523 added, shorts −2,494 covered (net +11,017, rel 83 → 100) as HRW rose +1.6% in the COT week to $8.44 and +9.5% more since. Crowded now at rel +100 ⚑ — hold and trail, the entry has moved to SRW.
	Soybeans	$12.88	▲ up	74	1.6%	Strong Buy
Another huge build: +41,889 longs added, −7,008 shorts covered (net +48,897, rel 65 → 86) as beans rose +1.7% in the COT week to $12.88 and +4.1% since. Strong-Buy rated, RSI 74, above every SMA. Genuinely crowded now — hold and trail, no fresh add.
	Sugar	17.56c	▼ down	64	3.3%	Buy
The first crack. Specs bought ANOTHER +59,404 (net +198,017, still maxed at rel +100) into sugar’s first FALLING COT week in a month, −1.1% to 17.56c. Brazil’s revised Conab numbers show sugar output actually falling (−2.9%) even as cane volume rises, on ethanol diversion — the physical case looks tighter than last week’s framing, not looser. RSI 64, ADX 53 (a genuinely strong trend). Hold and trail; do not chase either direction.
	WTI crude	$83.40	▼ down	52	4.2%	Buy
The crowd itself started trimming from a fresh cycle high. Specs CUT −3,459 (net +84,020, rel 88 → 84) as WTI fell −2.0% in the COT week to $83.40, then bounced +1.3% since. The Strait of Hormuz stays shut and the EIA still models Brent averaging ~$87 in 2026 — the physical case is unchanged, but the position itself just turned. Watch for further liquidation before treating this as a fresh add.
	Gold	$4,530	▼ down	57	2.4%	Buy
The COT-week window finally caught the rally it had been chasing. Longs ADDED +5,224 (net +3,099, rel 87 → 89) as gold ran +6.2% in the COT week to $4,530 — then it gave back −3.5% since as September-hold odds firmed and yields backed up hard. RSI 57, Buy-rated, sitting just below the 200-day ($4,534). The crowd arrived right as the move paused; hold and trail, the entry with more fuel left is silver or platinum.
	Silver	$67.79	▼ down	59	4.2%	Buy
Real fuel remains under gold’s crowded rel 89. Both legs moved the right way (net +2,378, rel 30 → 36) as silver rose +7.3% in the COT week to $67.79, then eased −1.3% since. RSI 59, Buy-rated, still below the 200-day ($71.86). Still the least crowded of the three precious metals.
	Platinum	$1,854	▼ down	61	3.5%	Buy
The single biggest metals build of the week. Longs ADDED +3,262 (net +3,014, rel 34 → 49) as platinum ran +7.4% in the COT week to $1,854, easing only −0.4% since. RSI 61, Buy-rated, still below the 200-day ($1,940). Sub-extreme with real fuel — the best-positioned metal on the board.
	Copper	$6.66	▲ up	58	2.1%	Buy
A RECORD long taking profit into strength rather than adding to it. Shorts ADDED +2,387 (net −2,377, rel 100 → 97) as copper rose +3.4% in the COT week to $6.66 then eased −0.8% since. The Section 232 tariff overhang and LME tightness still veto the short — ride only, size down.
	NatGas	$2.888	▬ flat	56	3.7%	Neutral
The squeeze on our own short has essentially normalized. The record short covered a further +28,407, the second-biggest single-week cover on the board, taking rel −74 → −53 — no longer even a flagged extreme. Gas ticked −0.2% in the COT week then rose +4.3% since to $2.888. Six straight weeks of covering; the position has run its course. CLOSE what is left.
	Dow (DJIA)	53,565	▲ up	55	0.8%	Buy
The trap dissolved on its own. Leveraged funds cut last week’s RECORD net long (+3,737) almost back to flat (−1,635, rel 100 → −6, Δrel −106 — the single biggest positioning swing on this entire print) as the Dow rose +0.4% in the COT week to 53,565 and held since. RSI 55, Buy-rated, above every SMA. It never triggered a squeeze; the crowd that built it simply left — nothing to trade.
	Nasdaq-100	29,433	▬ flat	52	1.5%	Buy
The record short kept covering into weakness: +23,393 bought back (rel −67 → −44) as the index fell −1.0% in the COT week to 29,433, then rose +0.8% since. Real de-risking with still no consistent price reward. RSI 52, Buy-rated, sitting between its 20- and 50-day.
	Russell 2000	2,972	▼ down	45	1.1%	Sell
Still the board’s most extreme short, barely moved. Leveraged funds covered a marginal +2,086 (still near-RECORD rel −98, Δrel +2) as the index eased −0.3% in the COT week to 2,972 and −1.3% since. Below its 20- and 50-day now, Sell-rated, RSI 45. Unresolved: the trap from three weeks ago has neither closed nor been vindicated.
	S&P 500	7,712	▲ up	56	0.8%	Buy
Quietly getting more crowded. The short deepened (−39,097, rel −55 → −63) as the S&P eased −0.2% in the COT week to 7,712 and rose +0.4% since. RSI 56, right at its 20-day. No trigger yet, but the leg is no longer standing still.
	VIX	14.42	▼ down	43	8.5%	Sell
A second straight confirming week for the short-vol book. Leveraged funds pressed further (−11,050, rel −18 → −29) as VIX fell −2.5% in the COT week to 14.42, then dropped another −6.7% since — well below every SMA, Sell-rated. Dealers hold +51,790. The Dow risk underneath this trade is gone now that its record long has evaporated, but the Russell short (rel −98) still sits alongside it.
	USD/CAD	1.3901	▲ up	47	0.4%	Neutral
Take the win. The record short covered another +36,644 — the biggest FX move on the board again — taking rel −88 → −68, no longer flagged extreme, as CAD firmed through the COT week. USD/CAD is back at 1.3901, essentially AT its 20-day (1.3905) and back ABOVE the 200-day (1.3842) that was the entry trigger two weeks ago. The fuel that justified the short is largely spent. CLOSE, take the profit.
	EUR/USD	1.1578	▼ down	51	0.4%	Neutral
The record short was cut in HALF in a single week — +22,736 covered, the biggest relative FX move of the print (rel −82 → −50) — as EUR ground +0.9% higher in the COT week, then fell back BELOW its 200-day (1.163) to 1.1578, a failed breakout. RSI 51, Neutral-rated. Most of the fuel that justified the long is now spent; hold what you have, no fresh add.
	US 30Y yield	5.213%	▬ flat	—	—	—
The first real crack in seven weeks of the curve getting heavier. Asset managers CUT the 30Y by −75,719, the single biggest reduction anywhere on the curve, taking a FRESH RECORD (rel +100) down to rel +87, as the 30Y eased −13bp in the COT week to 5.213% then rose +6bp since. The front end repriced hard since the print — 2Y +18bp to 4.36%, 5Y +16bp to 4.491%, 10Y +11bp to 4.73% — consistent with markets now reading September as a Fed hold, not a cut, rather than the hawkish-hike scare from two weeks ago. Still not your market; still do not add duration.
	US Dollar (DXY)	99.68	▲ up	50	0.4%	Buy
The dollar broke down through the COT week — DXY fell to a 9-week low near 98.9, clearing below its own 200-day — then bounced back since print to 99.68, RSI 50, essentially flat on every SMA. That recovery is exactly why USD/CAD is testing its 200-day from above again: the floor that gave way two weeks ago is not gone, but it is no longer falling away underneath the shorts that were built on it.

Appendix — every contract

The full data by asset class, numbers first — positioning to Tue 25 Aug 2026, self-pulled from CFTC and the LME. Open a class; tap + on a row for its read.

CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated · Managed Money · Px = same COT week 18→25 Aug

	Contract	Net	Crowd & fuel	Flow (gross legs)	Px · 18→25 Aug	· since	Crowd state
ENERGY · the crowd itself started trimming, and diesel’s confirm broke
	WTI (NYMEX)	+84,020	LONG 84%	L +1,344 / S +4,803	−2.0%	+1.3%	—
CONFIRM↓ — specs CUT for the first time in weeks (net −3,459, rel 88 → 84) as WTI fell −2.0% to $83.40 and bounced +1.3% since. Hormuz stays shut, but the crowd itself just started trimming from a fresh cycle high. Watch for more liquidation.
	RBOB Gasoline	+79,652	LONG 80% ⚑	L +6,107 / S +536	−2.6%	+4.1%	—
DIVERGE ⚑ — longs ADDED into a −2.6% fall (net +5,571, rel 75 → 80), then price bounced +4.1% since. A second straight week of trapped longs at a crowded extreme. No trade.
	NY Harbor ULSD	+16,641	LONG 42%	L −370 / S −1,128	−4.2%	+2.6%	—
DIVERGE ⚠ — both legs cut (net +758, rel 40 → 42) as diesel fell −4.2%, its worst move in energy, then bounced +2.6% since. The confirming build from two weeks ago has broken; step aside.
	Brent (NYMEX LD)	+7,126	LONG 32%	L +533 / S +243	−2.7%	−0.5%	—
DIVERGE ⚠ — shorts pressed marginally (net +290, rel 31 → 32) even as Brent fell −2.7% and eased −0.5% since. Thin flow, trapped shorts, little fuel — watch, don’t chase.
	NatGas	−71,673	SHORT 53%	L +3,886 / S −24,521	−0.2%	+4.3%	COVERING
FLAT (covering) — the record short bought back +28,407 more, the second-biggest cover on the board, rel −74 → −53 — no longer even a flagged extreme. Six straight weeks unwinding; the squeeze has run its course. CLOSE what is left.
PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · gold’s crowd caught up, platinum built the most fuel
	Copper (HG)	+76,271	LONG 97%	L +10 / S +2,387	+3.4%	−0.8%	CROWD LONG ⚑
DIVERGE ⚠ — the RECORD long got trimmed into strength (net −2,377, rel 100 → 97) as copper rose +3.4% then eased −0.8% since. Tariff overhang and LME tightness still veto the short. Ride only, size down.
	Gold	+144,747	LONG 89% ⚑	L +5,224 / S +2,125	+6.2%	−3.5%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ — longs ADDED as the COT window finally caught the rally (rel 87 → 89), running +6.2% in-week then giving back −3.5% since. The crowd arrived right as the move paused. Hold and trail; the entry is silver/platinum.
	Steel HRC	+7,694	LONG 61%	L +312 / S +530	—	—	—
FLAT — the tariff long trimmed marginally (rel 63 → 61). No tradeable price series; no trade.
	Platinum	+10,228	LONG 49%	L +3,262 / S +248	+7.4%	−0.4%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↑ ★ — the single biggest metals build of the week (net +3,014, rel 34 → 49) as platinum ran +7.4% — the best metal move of the week — easing only −0.4% since. Sub-extreme, real fuel. LONG.
	Silver	+14,073	LONG 36%	L +1,888 / S −490	+7.3%	−1.3%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM — both legs moved the right way (net +2,378, rel 30 → 36) as silver rose +7.3%, then eased −1.3% since. Well under gold’s 89. LONG.
	Aluminum (COMEX)	−159	SHORT 17%	L 0 / S 0	—	—	—
A 159-lot book, unchanged. Noise.
	Palladium	−5,499	SHORT 83% ⚑	L +454 / S +636	+3.1%	+7.2%	—
DIVERGE ⚠ — the short deepened further (rel −80 → −83) as palladium rose +3.1%, then +7.2% more since — its best move of any metal. Trapped, offside, no confirmed catalyst to size a fade yet.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS · the WASDE trade became a runaway
	Corn	+317,448	LONG 92% ⚑	L +90,287 / S −45,469	+8.0%	+7.2%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ ★ — the biggest single-week build in this dataset (net +135,756, rel 53 → 92) on tight world stocks and Black Sea wheat disruption. Corn +8.0% then +7.2% since. RSI 81. Nearly maxed — hold and trail.
	Wheat (CBOT · SRW)	−13,597	SHORT 12%	L +8,590 / S −3,141	+3.2%	+11.5%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↑ ★ — still net short but covering hard (net +11,731, rel −22 → −12) as SRW rose +3.2% then +11.5% since — the best move on the board. The cleanest single leg of the complex. LONG.
	Wheat (KCBT · HRW)	+42,514	LONG 100% ⚑	L +8,523 / S −2,494	+1.6%	+9.5%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ — the long hit a fresh MAXED extreme (net +11,017, rel 83 → 100) as HRW rose +1.6% then +9.5% since. Maxed now; hold and trail — the entry has moved to SRW.
	Soybeans	+200,679	LONG 86%	L +41,889 / S −7,008	+1.7%	+4.1%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ — another huge ag build (net +48,897, rel 65 → 86) as beans rose +1.7% then +4.1% since. Genuinely crowded now. Hold and trail.
	Soybean Meal	+95,953	LONG 73%	L +297 / S −12,341	+3.3%	+6.0%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ — the crush long confirmed via short-covering (net +12,638, rel 63 → 73) as meal rose +3.3% then +6.0% since. Getting crowded; hold.
	Soybean Oil	+85,116	LONG 51%	L −2,421 / S +3,696	−2.7%	+4.8%	—
CONFIRM↓ — the reversal in the complex: longs cut, shorts added (net −6,117, rel 54 → 51) as oil fell −2.7%, then bounced +4.8% since. The one soy leg that turned; step aside.
SOFTS · sugar cracked, cotton kept confirming, cocoa fired
	Sugar	+198,017	LONG 100% ⚑	L +43,674 / S −15,730	−1.1%	+1.7%	CROWD LONG ⚑
DIVERGE ⚠ — the first crack: specs bought ANOTHER +59,404 (still maxed rel +100) into sugar’s first FALLING COT week in a month. Brazil’s revised numbers now show output actually falling on ethanol diversion — tighter than last week’s framing, not looser. Hold, watch closely.
	Cotton	+88,293	LONG 100% ⚑	L +12,490 / S −3,131	+3.4%	+3.4%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — the long ADDED further (still maxed rel +100) as cotton rose +3.4% then +3.4% again since. Right direction, zero fuel.
	Coffee (Arabica)	+31,188	LONG 62%	L +578 / S +1,002	+0.9%	−6.8%	—
DIVERGE ⚠ — the long essentially unchanged (rel 63 → 62) into a +0.9% rally, then gave back −6.8% since — the worst move on the board. Brazil’s slow harvest still keeps the physical case tight enough to veto any short. No trade.
	Cocoa (NYBOT)	−10,458	SHORT 45%	L +523 / S +1,610	−1.5%	+14.1%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↓ then FIRING — the short deepened (net −1,087, rel −41 → −45) as cocoa fell −1.5%, then ripped +14.1% since as Ghana cut its crop estimate −13%. Sub-extreme, trapped, now confirmed. LONG.
LIVESTOCK · the crowd kept confirming lower, the scarcity gate still bans the short
	Live Cattle	+59,729	LONG 43%	L +2,471 / S +5,709	−3.6%	+0.4%	—
CONFIRM↓ — funds trimmed further (net −3,238, rel 46 → 43) as cattle fell −3.6% then rose +0.4% since. The 75-year-low herd still bans any short.
	Feeder Cattle	+8,886	LONG 32%	L −1,269 / S +106	−4.0%	+1.0%	—
CONFIRM↓ — the worst move on the board again (−4.0% cotwk) as the long trimmed (rel 34 → 32). Same scarcity veto, same no-trade.
	Lean Hogs	−36,098	SHORT 84% ⚑	L −2,220 / S +4,881	−0.3%	+1.8%	CROWD SHORT ⚑
FLAT — the short DEEPENED sharply again (net −7,101, rel −67 → −84) as hogs fell −0.3% then rose +1.8% since. Genuinely crowded now; watch for an RSI-driven bounce.

Base metals · London (LME)Investment Funds · as of Fri 21 Aug (London week 14→21 Aug; since = 21 Aug→latest) · tin & LME copper omitted

	Metal	Funds net	Crowd & fuel	Flow (Δnet)	Px · 14→21 Aug	· since	Crowd state
	Zinc	+54,978	LONG 99% ⚑	Δnet −448	+2.2%	+3.4%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM ⚑ — funds trimmed marginally (rel ~100 → 99) as zinc rose +2.2% cotwk and +3.4% more since — still the strongest LME run in years. LME Weekly Review still calls the market tight. Ride and trail, never short a confirming deficit long.
	Aluminium	+142,436	LONG 72% ⚑	Δnet +306	+0.3%	−0.7%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM ⚑ — funds added +306 more (rel unchanged at 72) as alu rose +0.3% cotwk then eased since. Backwardation persists — physical tightness still vetoes any short.
	Nickel	+14,435	LONG 37%	Δnet +1,581	+1.7%	−1.2%	—
CONFIRM↑ — funds added +1,581 (rel 33 → 37) as nickel rose +1.7% cotwk then eased −1.2% since. Sub-extreme, no crowd to fade either way.
	Lead	−23,717	SHORT 100% ⚑	Δnet −3,299	+0.9%	+0.3%	—
DIVERGE ⚑ — a FRESH RECORD: the short deepened to a new 52-week-low extreme (rel −100) as lead rose +0.9% cotwk and +0.3% more since. Still no acute scarcity narrative to back a fade — closed weeks ago, staying closed even at a new record.

FXLegacy Non-Commercial · per currency (red = specs short that currency) · USD row = implied mirror · context only

	Ccy	Pair	Net	Δ Net	Crowd	Pair · 18→25 Aug	· since	Crowd state
	CAD	USD/CAD	−121,522	+36,644	−68%	+0.4%	−0.4%	COVERING
The covering that fired two weeks ago kept going, even harder: +36,644 bought back, the biggest absolute FX move on the board again (rel −88 → −68, no longer flagged extreme), as CAD firmed through the COT week. USD/CAD is back at 1.3901 — essentially AT its 20-day (1.3905) and back ABOVE the 200-day (1.3842) that was the original entry trigger. The fuel is largely spent. CLOSE, take the profit.
	EUR	EUR/USD	−36,352	+22,736	−50%	+0.9%	−0.8%	CROWD LONG ⚑
The biggest relative FX move of the print: the record short was cut nearly in HALF in a single week (rel −82 → −50) as EUR ground +0.9% higher in the COT week, cleared its 200-day intraweek — then fell back BELOW it (1.163) to close at 1.1578, a failed breakout. Most of the fuel that justified this long is now spent. Hold what you have, no fresh add.
	NZD	NZD/USD	−14,239	+18,381	−22%	+1.8%	−1.1%	—
Shorts covered +18,381, the second-biggest FX move on the board (rel −50 → −22) as the kiwi firmed +1.8% in the COT week. The multi-week short-covering story is nearly finished — almost nothing left to fade in either direction.
	GBP	GBP/USD	−44,524	+10,049	−42%	+0.9%	−0.8%	—
Shorts covered +10,049 (rel −52 → −42) as sterling firmed +0.9% cotwk. Mid-range now — not crowded enough to fade, not directional enough to ride.
	CHF	USD/CHF	−19,946	+7,332	−45%	+1.3%	−1.0%	—
The short covered +7,332 (rel −62 → −45) as the franc firmed +1.3% cotwk then eased −1.0% since. Still follows the euro; no trigger of its own.
	JPY	USD/JPY	−63,298	−10,405	−39%	+0.3%	−0.6%	—
A SECOND straight week of a fresh short being rebuilt: net −10,405 (rel −32 → −39) as the yen strengthened +0.3% in the COT week to ~160. Not yet extreme enough to fade, but building into strength for two prints running.
	AUD	AUD/USD	−44,455	−296	−53%	+1.1%	−0.0%	—
The short barely moved (net −296) while the rel reads deeper on base effect (−44 → −53) as AUD rose +1.1% in the COT week, RSI 62, above every SMA. A crowded short doing nothing while price runs is getting more offside, not confirming — still not extreme enough to force a trade.
	MXN	USD/MXN	+82,382	+2,930	+75%	+0.7%	−0.5%	—
The one net-LONG currency added slightly (net +2,930, rel 73 → 75) as the peso firmed +0.7% cotwk. Crowded; hold, no fresh entry.
	USD	DXY basket	+$27.5bn	−$8.1bn	—	−0.7%	+0.8%	—
The aggregate long kept bleeding (+$35.6bn → +$27.5bn, −$8.1bn) as DXY broke to a 9-week low near 98.9 through the COT week — then bounced back since print to 99.68, essentially flat versus where the week began. That round trip is exactly why USD/CAD is testing its own 200-day from above again: the floor gave way, but it did not stay gone.

Rates · Equities · VIXTFF · rates via Asset Managers (real money), equities & VIX via Leveraged Funds

Rates — Asset Managers

	Contract	AM net	Crowd	Yield Δ · wk	· since	Now	Crowd state
	UST 10Y	+2,592k	99%	−8 bp	+11 bp	4.73%	—
AM added a further +6,577, rel unchanged at +99, as the 10Y fell −8bp cotwk to 4.73% then backed up +11bp since. Nine weeks of the same trap, same instruction: do NOT add duration.
	UST Bond	+522k	87%	−13 bp	+6 bp	5.21%	—
The first real crack in seven weeks: AM CUT −75,719, the single biggest reduction on the curve, taking a FRESH RECORD (rel +100) down to rel +87 as the 30Y eased −13bp to 5.213% cotwk then rose +6bp since. The long end got lighter for the first time all summer.
	Ultra 10Y	+730k	99%	−8 bp	+11 bp	—	—
AM added a further +40,574, the second-biggest add on the curve, taking rel 93 → 99. Mirrors the 10Y’s yield move.
	Ultra Bond	+1,059k	89%	−13 bp	+6 bp	—	—
Essentially unchanged (−9,592, rel unchanged at 89) after last week’s trim. Mirrors the 30Y’s move.
	UST 5Y	+2,914k	76%	−4 bp	+16 bp	4.49%	—
AM trimmed marginally (−12,633, rel unchanged at 76) as the 5Y eased −4bp cotwk then rose +16bp since to 4.491% — the biggest since-print belly move.
	UST 2Y	+1,609k	62%	−0 bp	+18 bp	4.36%	—
AM cut a further −11,569 (rel unchanged at 62), taking the outright net position to its LOWEST level in over a year. The 2Y yield jumped +18bp since the print — the biggest since-print move on the entire curve — as markets repriced toward a September hold, not a cut.

Equity indices — Leveraged Funds

	Index	Lev net	Δ Lev	Crowd	Px · wk	· since	Crowd state
	Dow (DJIA)	−2k	−5k	−6%	+0.4%	−0.0%	—
FLAT — the trap dissolved: leveraged funds cut last week’s RECORD net long (+3,737, rel 100) almost back to flat (−1,635, Δ−5,372, rel −6, Δrel −106 — the single biggest positioning swing on this entire print) as the Dow rose +0.4% in the COT week and held since. It never triggered the squeeze test on the way down; the crowd simply left. Nothing to trade.
	MSCI EM	+32k	−7k	19%	+2.9%	−0.2%	CROWD LONG
DIVERGE — the first profit-taking week: funds CUT −6,610 (net +32,322, rel 23 → 19) even as EM rose +2.9% cotwk to a fresh high. Still the least-crowded equity long on the board; watch for the build to resume.
	S&P 500	−329k	−39k	−63%	−0.2%	+0.4%	—
Quietly getting more crowded. The short deepened (−39,097, rel −55 → −63) as the S&P eased −0.2% cotwk then rose +0.4% since. No trigger yet, but the leg is no longer standing still.
	Nasdaq-100	−44k	+23k	−44%	−1.0%	+0.8%	—
The record short kept covering into weakness: +23,393 bought back (rel −67 → −44) as the index fell −1.0% cotwk then rose +0.8% since. Real de-risking, still no consistent price reward.
	Russell 2000	−98k	+2k	−98%	−0.3%	−1.3%	—
Still the board’s most extreme short, barely moved. Covered a marginal +2,086 (still near-RECORD rel −98) as the index eased −0.3% cotwk and −1.3% since. Unresolved for a third straight week.

Volatility — VIX

	Contract	Lev net	Dealer net	Crowd	VIX Δ · wk	· since	Crowd state
	VIX	−30.1k	+51.8k	−29%	−2.5%	−6.7%	—
Leveraged funds pressed the short-vol book further (−11,050, rel −18 → −29) as VIX fell −2.5% in the COT week to 14.42 — a second straight confirming week — then dropped another −6.7% since, well below every SMA. Dealers hold +51,790, broadly unchanged. The Dow long that sat alongside this book evaporated without a fight; what remains is the Russell short at near-RECORD rel −98, unresolved for a third straight week.