Cross-Asset COT · 1 Sep 2026

The board — and what changed

Each market as a signed share of its own 1-year positioning extreme at the Tue 1-Sep close. Green = crowd long, red = crowd short (currencies per currency). Tap a tile for its read.

Risk compass · at the close

75 / 100

Grains fully maxed; rates trapped into the backup; the yen short caught offside

Grains

+93

Rates

+85

Softs

+58

Energy

+39

Metals

+29

Base · LME

+27

Livestock

−5

Volatility

−28

FX ccys · short

−28

Equities

−33

Signed mean rel-to-max by class. Grains +93 is the most crowded class of the year; Rates +85 bought a 17–23bp yield jump; Equities −33 as Nasdaq covered but Russell hit a fresh record short.

Cross-asset positioning heatmap

Grains

Corn+100
Soybeans+100
Soybean Meal+100
Wheat SRW+100
Wheat HRW+100
Soybean Oil+59

Rates

UST 10Y+100
Ultra 10Y+97
UST Bond+91
Ultra Bond+85
UST 5Y+76
UST 2Y+61

Softs

Sugar+100

Cotton+100

Coffee+53

Cocoa−21

Energy

WTI+94

RBOB+90

Heat Oil+53

Brent+24

NatGas−67

Metals

Copper+92

Gold+84

Steel HRC+55

Platinum+42

Silver+34

Aluminum−37

Palladium−70

Base · LME

Zinc+99

Aluminium+72

Nickel+37

Lead−100

Livestock

Live Cattle+35

Feeder+31

Lean Hogs−80

Vol

VIX−28

Ccys vs USD

MXN+85

NZD−12

EUR−34

GBP−47

AUD−47

CHF−52

JPY−56

CAD−60

Equities

MSCI EM+25

Dow−6

Nasdaq−18

S&P 500−64

Russell−100

SHORT −100+100 LONG· tap a tile for the read

What changed vs the 25-Aug print tap a card for the why

GrainsUNWIND TAIL→UNWIND TAIL

From nearly maxed to four books at +100 — and the price turned

Last week corn (rel 92), HRW (100) and beans (86) were called the crowd fully in. This week corn added another +83,555 to a 52-week-high +401,003 (rel 100), beans went 86 → 100, meal 73 → 100 and SRW’s book flipped net long (rel +100 on a base effect) as wheat ran to three-year highs on Black Sea disruption. Then the premium leaked: since the print SRW −6.2%, HRW −5.1%, corn −1.7%, soy oil −4.6% as Turkey brokered safe-passage talks. The unwind tail is no longer hypothetical — the price has started moving against the most crowded class on the board.

FX · the yen—→SQUEEZE FIRING

From a short quietly building to a squeeze firing

Last week the yen short was flagged as a watch: rebuilt for a second week into yen strength, not yet extreme (rel −39). This week it deepened −28,929 to rel −56, the biggest FX move of the print, into a soft week — and then the squeeze fired after the close: the yen ripped +2.5% to 156.2 as BoJ’s Takata called for nimble hikes, Bessent said he expects Tokyo to act, and a September BoJ hike was nearly fully priced. The rest of the dollar-short wall kept covering without a price reward (EUR −50 → −34, CAD −68 → −60, NZD finished at −12).

RatesUNWIND TAIL→UNWIND TAIL

The duration crowd bought a 17–23bp yield backup

Last week the 30Y took its first cut in seven weeks and the front end repriced toward a September hold. This week real money bought the sell-off: the 10Y long hit a fresh record (+12,141, rel 100), the 5Y added +13,538 and the Bond re-bought +22,721 as yields jumped +17 to +23bp across the curve and the 2Y hit its highest since January 2025. Since the print the curve eased 1–3bp as Friday’s +162k payroll was read as hawkish and then Waller signalled a hold. Ten weeks of the same trap; this is the first week the price moved hard against it.

Energy—→UNWIND TAIL

From the crowd trimming to the crowd re-chasing Hormuz

Last week WTI’s crowd cut for the first time in weeks (rel 88 → 84) and diesel’s confirm broke. This week the war premium came back — US–Iran strikes resumed, Hormuz throughput is a fifth of pre-war — and the crowd chased it: WTI +10,261 (rel 94), RBOB +10,725 (rel 90), diesel +3,703 as prices ran +9.5% / +7.0% / +13.0%. Two energy crowds are back near maxed with OPEC+ meeting Sunday. NatGas went the other way: the short rebuilt (rel −53 → −67) into a rising price, but with storage above the 5-year average the glut backs the crowd.

Metals · preciousCROWD LONG ⚑→CROWD LONG ⚑

The crowd was cut with the price, then the price bounced

Last week gold’s crowd had just caught the rally (rel 89) and platinum built the biggest metals position of the week. This week all three were cut into a hard down week — gold −6.3% (longs −10,098, rel 84), silver −5.9% (rel 34), platinum −5.1% (rel 42) — as Fed hike odds climbed toward 70% after Warsh’s hawkish speech and gold briefly erased its 2026 gains. Since the print gold +1.8%, silver +2.1%, platinum +3.4%, palladium +5.5% as the hike odds fell back to ~50%. Gold is still a crowded long; silver and platinum are no longer crowds at all.

SoftsCROWD LONG ⚑→UNWIND TAIL

Sugar and cotton bought at the ceiling; coffee’s crowd left

Last week sugar cracked (buying into a falling week) and cocoa’s squeeze fired on Ghana’s crop cut. This week sugar bought +36,401 more at rel +100 into a +6.3% rally (the deficit case still backs it), cotton added +11,309 at +100 and then lost −5.7% since, coffee’s crowd was cut (rel 62 → 53) as arabica fell −7.8% and −4.5% more on Brazil’s record crop, and cocoa’s squeeze kept firing (+12.7% cotwk, rel −45 → −21) before giving back −5.8%. Two maxed longs still adding, one long crowd leaving, one squeeze mostly spent.

Biggest positioning shifts Δ rel-to-max, this wk vs last · top 5

	Market	Class	rel · last → now	Δ
	Wheat SRW	Grains	−12 → +100	+112
A base-effect swing: the book flipped from net short −13,597 to net long +14,904 (longs +22,113, shorts −6,388) as SRW ran +11.3% cotwk to a three-year high — and rel jumps to +100 because this is the first net long in the 52-week window. A thin crowd on a small net, not a big one; the price has since given back −6.2%.
	Soybean Meal	Grains	+73 → +100	+27
The biggest relative build in the grain complex: longs +48,568, shorts −12,658 (net +61,226) as meal rose +7.1% cotwk to $352.6 and +0.7% since. Mid-crowd to maxed in one print.
	Nasdaq-100	Equities	−44 → −18	+26
The record short kept covering: +26,282 bought back, the biggest single cover on the board, into a −0.5% week; +1.6% since. Six weeks of de-risking — the crowd is nearly gone.
	Cocoa	Softs	−45 → −21	+24
The squeeze that fired last week kept going: shorts −1,583, longs +4,125 as cocoa rose +12.7% cotwk on the Ghana / Ivory Coast crop cuts, then gave back −5.8% since. No longer a flagged crowd; most of the fuel is spent.
	JPY	FX	−39 → −56	−17
The biggest FX move of the print: shorts +17,758, longs −11,171 (net −28,929) into a soft yen week — and then the squeeze fired after the close: the yen +2.5% since on BoJ hike bets. A short built for three weeks into strength, now offside.

Positioning risk — where the tails are

Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. Flags for exposure and stops — the trades come from v2 · newcot.

SQUEEZE FUELCrowded short, shorts pressing — long-biased.

SQUEEZE FIRINGThe squeeze in progress — fuel being spent.

UNWIND TAILCrowded long, still adding — do not add; not a short.

TIGHT · NEVER SHORTPhysically tight — the short veto.

Squeeze fuel — crowded shorts still pressing (long-biased)

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
NatGas	Crowd −67, short REBUILT −17,808 into a +3.6% rise	Trapped on the week, but storage above the 5-yr average backs the short. Fuel without a spark — the glut vetoes the squeeze.
Lean Hogs · Lead (LME)	Hogs −80 (barely covered +1,407); lead −100 record, as of 21 Aug	Two crowded shorts that have not moved. Squeeze risk intact; neither has a physical spark yet.
Russell 2000 · S&P 500	Russell fresh RECORD −100 (−11,799 added, index −3.0%); S&P −64 deepening	The crowd was right this week — which is when the fuel is biggest. The most extreme position on the board.

Squeeze firing / fired — fuel being spent

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
JPY	Crowd −39 → −56, short deepened −28,929 — then the yen +2.5% since	A short built for three weeks into strength is being squeezed on BoJ hike bets. BoJ decides 18-Sep; fuel is large and being spent fast.
Nasdaq-100 · Cocoa · Palladium	Nasdaq +26,282 covered (−44 → −18); cocoa −45 → −21 after +12.7%; palladium −83 → −70, +5.5% since	Three squeezes in progress or mostly spent. Nasdaq and cocoa are nearly out of fuel; palladium still flagged.
Dollar shorts (EUR · CAD · NZD)	EUR −50 → −34, CAD −68 → −60, NZD −22 → −12 — covering without a price reward	Fuel being spent, not squeezed: the euro fell while its shorts covered. AUD (−47, at a cycle high) is the short still getting offside.

Unwind tail — crowded longs still adding (do not add · NOT a short)

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
Corn · Soybeans · Meal · HRW · SRW	All at rel +100 — corn +401,003 a 52-week record; then wheat −5 to −6%, corn −1.7% since	The most crowded class on the board just watched the price turn. The unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry; shorting a crowded long tested 0/7 years.
UST 10Y · 5Y · Bond	AM bought a 17–23bp yield backup: 10Y a fresh RECORD 100, 5Y 76, Bond 87 → 91	Ten weeks of the same duration trap, now with the price moving against it. Only the 2Y crowd is cutting.
WTI · RBOB · Gold · Sugar · Cotton · MXN	WTI 94 / RBOB 90 re-chased Hormuz; gold 84 cut −8k into −6.3%; sugar and cotton +100 still buying; MXN 85	Crowds at or near the ceiling. Gold is liquidating with the price; cotton lost −5.7% since; sugar’s deficit still backs its crowd.

Tight — the short veto (long-biased)

Counter	Crowd & flow	What it means — risk, not direction
Copper	Crowd 92 trimmed −3,389 into a dip; LME stocks down 42 straight days to ~205kt	Never short; the physical side got tighter, not looser. A record crowd, so the extreme is a tail too.
LME Zinc · Aluminium	Zinc 99, aluminium 72 (as of 21 Aug) — backwardated, cancelled zinc warrants at a 1-yr high	Never short. The LME long crowds backed by physical scarcity.
Cattle · Sugar · HRW wheat	75-yr-low herd (a short crowd forming against it); Brazil ethanol diversion; smallest US winter wheat since 1963	Physically backed crowds — extremes here are tails on the long side, never fades. Cotton is maxed but NOT tight.

Do not force these

Reading SRW’s +100 as a big crowdIt is a base effect — the first net long in a year, on +14,904 contracts; the real crowd is corn at +401,003.

Fading the maxed grains because the price turnedShorting a crowded long tested 0 of 7 years; the unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry, not a fade.

Calling NatGas a squeezeThe short rebuilt into a rising price, but storage is above the 5-year average — the glut backs the crowd, so it is fuel without a spark.

Why no trades: the 6-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at 1–8 week holds and shorting a crowded long the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). v1 displays; v2 decides.

Positioning vs price — the same-week read

How each crowd moved versus how price moved in the same week (Tue 25 Aug → 1 Sep). CONFIRM = they agreed; DIVERGE = a crowd offside. Tap + for the read.

	Market	Positioning move · the week	Crowd	Px · 25 Aug→1 Sep	Read	· since
	Corn	longs ADDED +56,094, shorts COVERED −27,461 — rel 92 → 100	LONG +100% ⚑	+4.2%	CONFIRM ✓	−1.7%
A second giant build on top of last week’s record. Net +83,555 to +401,003 — a fresh 52-week high — as corn rose +4.2% in the COT week to $5.46, then slipped −1.7% since as the Black Sea premium leaked on Turkish safe-passage talks. RSI 75. The crowd is now the whole market; the WASDE on 11-Sep is the next catalyst and the unwind tail is the whole position.
	Wheat (SRW / HRW)	SRW net FLIPPED −13,597 → +14,904 · HRW longs +6,440	LONG +100% · +100% ⚑	+11.3% / +9.7%	CONFIRM ✓	−6.2% / −5.1%
Both wheats ran to three-year highs in the COT week on Black Sea export disruption (Ukraine’s August exports −58% y/y; USDA cut Russia to 46mt) — SRW +11.3% to $7.825, HRW +9.7% to $8.45 — with SRW’s book flipping net long for the first time in a year (longs +22,113, shorts −6,388). Then both gave back −6.2% / −5.1% since as Turkey announced safe-passage talks. SRW’s rel +100 is a base effect on a small net; HRW’s is a genuinely maxed crowd that just watched the high roll over.
	Soybeans / Meal	beans +34,241 · meal +61,226 (longs +48,568, shorts −12,658)	LONG +100% · +100% ⚑	+6.5% / +7.1%	CONFIRM ✓	−0.6% / +0.7%
Beans rose +6.5% in the COT week to $13.18 on a multi-year-low crop rating and a hot, dry forecast; meal +7.1%. Both books hit fresh 52-week highs — beans rel 86 → 100, meal 73 → 100 (the biggest relative build in the complex). Since the print beans −0.6%, meal +0.7%. Soybean oil confirmed too (rel 51 → 59, +7.2% cotwk) but then dropped −4.6% since, the worst since-print move in the complex.
	Sugar	longs ADDED +36,401 — the fourth week of buying at the ceiling	LONG +100% ⚑	+6.3%	CONFIRM ✓	−1.6%
Net +233,771, a fresh 52-week high, still maxed at rel +100, as sugar rose +6.3% in the COT week to 18.36c and eased −1.6% since. ADX 57 — a very strong trend — and Brazil’s ethanol-diversion deficit case still backs the crowd. Physically backed and maxed: the extreme is a tail on the long crowd, never a short.
	WTI / RBOB	WTI longs +8,418, shorts −1,843 · RBOB longs +10,725	LONG +94% · +90% ⚑	+9.5% / +7.0%	CONFIRM ✓	+1.4% / +2.5%
The crowd re-chased the war premium. WTI ran +9.5% in the COT week to $90.22 (net +10,261, rel 84 → 94) as US–Iran strikes resumed and Hormuz throughput sits near a fifth of pre-war levels; RBOB +7.0% (rel 80 → 90); diesel +13.0%, the biggest move on the board (rel 42 → 53). Since the print WTI +1.4% to $91.48, RBOB +2.5%, diesel −2.9%. Two crowds back near maxed, with OPEC+ meeting Sunday and expected to hold.
	Gold	longs CUT −10,098, shorts −2,122 as price fell	LONG +84% ⚑	−6.3%	CONFIRM ✓	+1.8%
The crowd liquidated with the price. Net −7,976 (rel 89 → 84) as gold fell −6.3% in the COT week to $4,396 — at one point erasing its 2026 gains as Fed hike odds climbed toward 70% after Warsh’s hawkish speech — then rebounded +1.8% since to $4,477 before a −2% Friday on the +162k payroll. Silver (rel 36 → 34, −5.9%) and platinum (49 → 42, −5.1%) were cut the same way. Still crowded at 84, below the 200-day.
	Copper	shorts ADDED +2,712, longs −677 into a falling week	LONG +92% ⚑	−3.1%	CONFIRM ✓	+1.2%
A record crowd trimming into a dip: net −3,389 (rel 97 → 92) as copper fell −3.1% in the COT week to $6.60, then +1.2% since to $6.68. The physical side got tighter, not looser — LME stocks fell for a 42nd straight day to ~205kt, nearly half earmarked for withdrawal, and US imports hit a 12-year monthly high. Crowded and tight: a tail on the long crowd, and the short stays vetoed.
	NatGas	short REBUILT: shorts +7,332, longs −10,476 into a rising price	SHORT −67%	+3.6%	DIVERGE ⚠	+2.4%
Net −17,808 to −89,481 (rel −53 → −67) as gas rose +3.6% in the COT week to $2.90 and +2.4% since to $2.975. Trapped on the week — but the physical world backs the short: storage is above the 5-year average and the EIA sees a record 3,985 Bcf by end-October with the prompt pinned under $3. Fuel without a spark; the glut is the veto on the squeeze, not on the short.
	Coffee	longs CUT −2,216, shorts ADDED +2,243 as price fell	LONG +53%	−7.8%	CONFIRM ✓	−4.5%
The crowd left with the price. Net −4,459 (rel 62 → 53) as arabica fell −7.8% in the COT week to $3.09 and −4.5% more since to $2.956, the lowest since 6-Aug, as Brazil’s record ~75m-bag crop passed 90% harvested. RSI 39, below every SMA. The El Niño flowering risk (Sep–Oct rains) is the only physical support left under the remaining long crowd.
	Cocoa	shorts COVERED −1,583, longs +4,125 — the squeeze kept firing	SHORT −21%	+12.7%	CONFIRM ✓	−5.8%
Net +5,708 (rel −45 → −21) as cocoa rose +12.7% in the COT week to $6,571 on Ghana’s −13% crop estimate, Ivory Coast’s early ~1.8mmt (−18%) assessment and black-pod disease — then gave back −5.8% since to $6,188. The short is no longer a flagged crowd; most of the fuel that fired last week has been spent.
	USD/JPY (yen short)	shorts +17,758, longs −11,171 — the biggest FX move of the print	SHORT −56%	+0.6%	CONFIRM ✓	−2.5%
Net −28,929 to −92,227 (rel −39 → −56) as the yen eased −0.6% in the COT week to 160.2 — a clean confirm — and then the squeeze fired: the yen ripped +2.5% since to 156.2 (touching 155.3) as BoJ’s Takata called for nimble hikes, Bessent said he expects Tokyo to act, and a September BoJ hike became nearly fully priced (decision 18-Sep). Three weeks of a short built into strength, now offside by 4 yen in three days. USD/JPY RSI 33, below every SMA.
	EUR/USD (euro short)	shorts COVERED −6,869, longs +4,558 into a FALLING euro	SHORT −34%	−0.7%	DIVERGE ⚠	+0.2%
Net +11,427 (rel −50 → −34) as EUR fell −0.7% in the COT week to 1.159, then +0.2% since to 1.161 — parked on its 200-day (1.163). The covering continues without the price rewarding it: fuel spent, no squeeze. CAD covered the same way (+13,379, rel −68 → −60, USD/CAD 1.383 back under its 200-day); NZD’s unwind is finished (rel −12).
	UST 10Y / 5Y	AM ADDED +12,141 (10Y, a fresh RECORD) and +13,538 (5Y) into a yield backup	LONG +100% · +76% ⚑	+17bp / +23bp	DIVERGE ⚠	−1bp / −1bp
Real money bought the sell-off. The 10Y long hit a fresh record (rel 100) and the 5Y added as yields jumped +17bp to 4.80% and +23bp to 4.56% in the COT week — the 2Y +22bp to 4.40%, its highest since January 2025. Since the print the curve eased −1 to −3bp: the +162k payroll briefly lifted September hike odds, then Waller signalled a hold. Only the 2Y crowd is cutting (−12,420); the Ultra Bond was trimmed −38,174. Ten weeks of the same trap, now with the price against it.
	Russell 2000 / Nasdaq	Russell shorts +11,799 to a fresh RECORD · Nasdaq +26,282 COVERED	SHORT −100% ⚑ · −18%	−3.0% / −0.5%	CONFIRM ✓	+1.9% / +1.6%
Two opposite stories in one class. The Russell short hit a fresh record (net −109,499, rel −98 → −100) as the index fell −3.0% in the COT week to 2,920 — the crowd was right — then bounced +1.9% since. The Nasdaq record short kept covering: +26,282 bought back (rel −44 → −18), the biggest single cover on the board, into a −0.5% week, then +1.6% since. The S&P short is the crowded large-cap leg left (−64); EM funds added +11,439 into a −0.7% week then EM ran +2.9% to a new high.
	Cotton	longs ADDED +11,309 at the ceiling	LONG +100% ⚑	+3.6%	CONFIRM ✓	−5.7%
Net +100,963, a fresh 52-week high (rel +100), as cotton rose +3.6% in the COT week to 91.55c — then fell −5.7% since to 86.33c, the worst since-print move in softs, wiping the week’s gain. RSI 49, below the 20-day. A maxed crowd that just got its first price hit; a tail, and the physical side is not tight enough to veto anything.

Since the print — technicalssecondary timing layer · 1 → 4 Sep · not the thesis

	Asset	Now	Trend	RSI(14)	Vol ATR%	TV rating
	Corn	$5.3675	▲ up	75	2.3%	Buy
A second giant build on top of last week’s record: longs +56,094, shorts −27,461 covered (net +83,555 to +401,003, rel 92 → 100, a fresh 52-week high) as corn rose +4.2% in the COT week to $5.46. Since the print it slipped −1.7% to $5.3675 as the Black Sea premium leaked on Turkish safe-passage talks. RSI 75, ADX 47, above every SMA, Buy-rated — but the crowd is the whole market now. USDA WASDE 11-Sep is the next catalyst.
	Wheat (SRW)	$7.34	▲ up	58	3.6%	Buy
Net flipped from −13,597 to +14,904 (longs +22,113, shorts −6,388) as SRW ran +11.3% in the COT week to $7.825, a three-year high, on Black Sea export disruption (Ukraine’s August exports −58% y/y). Then −6.2% since to $7.34 as Turkey announced talks with Russia and Ukraine on safe passage. Rel +100 is a base effect — the first net long in a year on a small net. RSI 58, still above the 20-day ($7.11).
	Wheat (HRW)	$8.02	▲ up	59	3.4%	Buy
Longs +6,440 (net +48,826, still maxed at rel +100) as HRW rose +9.7% in the COT week to $8.45, then fell −5.1% since to $8.02. RSI 59, ADX 34, above every SMA. A maxed crowd that watched a 3-year high roll over within days; the US winter wheat crop is the smallest since 1963, which is the physical support under the crowd.
	Soybeans	$13.10	▲ up	73	1.6%	Buy
Longs +31,115, shorts −3,126 (net +34,241 to +234,920, rel 86 → 100, a 52-week high) as beans rose +6.5% in the COT week to $13.18 on a multi-year-low crop rating and a hot, dry near-term forecast; −0.6% since. Meal did the same faster (rel 73 → 100, +7.1% cotwk). RSI 73, Buy-rated, above every SMA — crowded and still adding.
	Sugar	18.07c	▲ up	63	3.4%	Buy
Fourth straight week of buying at the ceiling: longs +36,401 (net +233,771, rel +100, a fresh 52-week high) as sugar rose +6.3% in the COT week to 18.36c, then eased −1.6% since. RSI 63, ADX 57 — a very strong trend — above every SMA. The Brazil ethanol-diversion deficit case still backs the crowd; the extreme is the tail.
	WTI crude	$91.48	▲ up	66	3.9%	Buy
The crowd re-chased the war premium: longs +8,418, shorts −1,843 (net +10,261 to +94,281, rel 84 → 94) as WTI ran +9.5% in the COT week to $90.22 on renewed US–Iran strikes and Hormuz throughput at ~4.9m b/d (a fifth of pre-war); +1.4% since to $91.48, up ~9% on the week. RSI 66, above every SMA. OPEC+ meets Sunday 6-Sep and is expected to hold quotas. Nearly maxed again.
	Gold	$4,477	▼ down	52	2.5%	Neutral
The crowd liquidated with the price: longs −10,098, shorts −2,122 (net −7,976, rel 89 → 84) as gold fell −6.3% in the COT week to $4,396 — at one point erasing its 2026 gains as Fed hike odds climbed to ~70% after Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech. Since the print it rebounded +1.8% to $4,477, then fell −2% Friday on a +162k payroll (56k expected). RSI 52, Neutral-rated, below its 200-day ($4,543). Still crowded at 84.
	Silver	$66.75	▬ flat	54	4.1%	Neutral
Both legs shrank — longs −2,265, shorts −790 (net −1,475, rel 36 → 34) — as silver fell −5.9% in the COT week to $65.37, then +2.1% since to $66.75. Deleveraging, not a directional crowd. RSI 54, Neutral, sitting on its 20-day, below the 200-day ($72.23).
	Platinum	$1,826	▲ up	56	3.7%	Buy
Last week’s biggest metals build was cut into the dip: longs −1,401 (net −1,543, rel 49 → 42) as platinum fell −5.1% in the COT week, then rebounded +3.4% since to $1,826. RSI 56, Buy-rated, above the 20-day ($1,806), below the 200-day ($1,945). Sub-extreme, no crowd to fade either way.
	Copper	$6.68	▲ up	58	2.1%	Buy
A record crowd trimming into a dip: shorts +2,712, longs −677 (net −3,389, rel 97 → 92) as copper fell −3.1% in the COT week to $6.60, then +1.2% since to $6.68. LME stocks fell for a 42nd straight day to ~205kt (the longest run since 2014) with nearly half earmarked for withdrawal, and US imports hit a 12-year monthly high. RSI 58, Buy-rated, above every SMA. Tight: the short stays vetoed.
	NatGas	$2.975	▲ up	60	3.6%	Buy
The short rebuilt into a rising price: shorts +7,332, longs −10,476 (net −17,808 to −89,481, rel −53 → −67) as gas rose +3.6% in the COT week to $2.90, then +2.4% since to $2.975. Trapped on the week — but storage is above the 5-year average (+30 Bcf w/e 28-Aug) and the EIA sees a record 3,985 Bcf by end-October, so the physical world backs the short. RSI 60, above the 20/50-day, below the 200-day ($3.29). Fuel without a spark.
	Coffee	$2.956	▼ down	39	4.7%	Sell
The crowd left with the price: longs −2,216, shorts +2,243 (net −4,459, rel 62 → 53) as arabica fell −7.8% in the COT week to $3.09 and −4.5% more since to $2.956, the lowest since 6-Aug, as Brazil’s record ~75m-bag crop passed 90% harvested. RSI 39, Sell-rated, below every SMA. The El Niño flowering risk (Sep–Oct rains) is the only physical support left.
	Cocoa	$6,188	▲ up	55	5.3%	Buy
The squeeze kept firing: shorts −1,583, longs +4,125 (net +5,708, rel −45 → −21) as cocoa rose +12.7% in the COT week to $6,571 on Ghana’s −13% and Ivory Coast’s −18% crop estimates and black-pod disease, then gave back −5.8% since to $6,188. RSI 55, above the 20-day. No longer a flagged crowd; most of the fuel is spent.
	Russell 2000	2,976	▼ down	48	1.1%	Neutral
A FRESH RECORD short: −11,799 added (net −109,499, rel −98 → −100) as the Russell fell −3.0% in the COT week to 2,920, then bounced +1.9% since to 2,976. Below its 20- and 50-day, RSI 48, Neutral. The crowd was right on the week; the position is now the single most extreme on the board.
	Nasdaq-100	29,544	▲ up	54	1.3%	Buy
The record short kept covering: +26,282 bought back (rel −44 → −18), the biggest single cover on the board, as the index dipped −0.5% in the COT week then rose +1.6% since to 29,544. RSI 54, Buy-rated, above every SMA. Six weeks of de-risking; the crowd is nearly gone.
	S&P 500	7,719	▬ flat	55	0.8%	Buy
The short deepened −5,904 (net −334,436, rel −63 → −64) as the S&P rose +0.4% in the COT week to 7,712 and held since. RSI 55, sitting on its 20-day. Quietly the most crowded large-cap short still standing, now that Nasdaq has covered.
	VIX	14.52	▼ down	45	8.6%	Sell
Leveraged funds bought back +3,885 (net −26,258, rel −29 → −28) as VIX rose +5.6% in the COT week to 16.33, then collapsed −11.1% since to 14.52 after Friday’s payroll scare faded. Dealers hold +48,862. The short-vol book is unchanged in size; the Russell record short sits underneath it.
	USD/JPY	156.20	▼ down	33	0.8%	Sell
The biggest FX move of the print and then the squeeze: shorts +17,758, longs −11,171 (net −28,929 to −92,227, rel −39 → −56) as the yen eased −0.6% in the COT week to 160.2 — then the yen ripped +2.5% since to 156.2 (touching 155.3 intraday) as BoJ board member Takata called for nimble hikes and Bessent said he expects Tokyo to act; a September BoJ hike is nearly fully priced (decision 18-Sep). RSI 33, Sell-rated, below every SMA. A short built for three weeks into strength is being squeezed.
	EUR/USD	1.1613	▬ flat	55	0.4%	Buy
Covering into a falling euro: shorts −6,869, longs +4,558 (net +11,427, rel −50 → −34) as EUR fell −0.7% in the COT week to 1.159, then +0.2% since to 1.161 — sitting on its 200-day (1.163) and 20-day (1.161). RSI 55, Neutral. The fuel keeps being spent without the price rewarding it.
	USD/CAD	1.3831	▼ down	43	0.5%	Sell
The third straight week of covering: shorts −13,383 (net +13,379, rel −68 → −60) as CAD slipped −0.4% in the COT week, then firmed +0.5% since. USD/CAD is at 1.383, back under its 200-day (1.3836) and 20-day (1.3863), Sell-rated. Still a crowd, no longer flagged.
	US 2Y / 30Y yield	4.37% / 5.24%	▲ up	—	—	—
Real money bought the sell-off: asset managers added +12,141 to a fresh RECORD 10Y long (rel 100) and +13,538 to the 5Y as yields jumped +17bp (10Y) and +23bp (5Y) in the COT week; the 2Y rose +22bp to 4.40%, its highest since January 2025. Since the print the curve eased −1 to −3bp: the +162k payroll (56k expected) briefly lifted September hike odds, then Waller signalled a hold and the odds fell back to ~50%. The 2Y crowd is the only one cutting; every other tenor is a crowded long that just took a price hit.
	US Dollar (DXY)	99.16	▼ down	43	0.4%	Sell
DXY rose +0.8% in the COT week to 99.65 as yields backed up, then gave back −0.5% since to 99.16 as the yen rally weighed — RSI 43, below its 20-day (99.37), on the 200-day (99.14). The aggregate spec dollar long slipped to +$26.9bn (−$0.7bn). A currency that rallied on the week and could not hold it.

Appendix — every contract

The full data by asset class, numbers first — positioning to Tue 1 Sep 2026, self-pulled from CFTC and the LME. Open a class; tap + on a row for its read.

CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated · Managed Money · Px = same COT week 25 Aug→1 Sep

	Contract	Net	Crowd & fuel	Flow (gross legs)	Px · 25 Aug→1 Sep	· since	Crowd state
ENERGY · the crowd re-chased the war premium; the gas short rebuilt into a rising price
	WTI (NYMEX)	+94,281	LONG 94% ⚑	L +8,418 / S −1,843	+9.5%	+1.4%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — net +10,261 (rel 84 → 94) as WTI ran +9.5% to $90.22 on renewed US–Iran strikes and Hormuz throughput at a fifth of pre-war; +1.4% since to $91.48. Nearly maxed again; OPEC+ meets Sunday and is expected to hold.
	RBOB Gasoline	+89,215	LONG 90% ⚑	L +10,725 / S +1,162	+7.0%	+2.5%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — longs +10,725 (rel 80 → 90) as gasoline rose +7.0% then +2.5% since. Two weeks ago this crowd was offside; the price rescued it. Crowded again.
	NY Harbor ULSD	+20,344	LONG 53%	L +1,725 / S −1,978	+13.0%	−2.9%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↑ — net +3,703 (rel 42 → 53) as diesel ran +13.0%, the biggest move on the board, then gave back −2.9% since. Sub-extreme; the confirming build is back.
	Brent (NYMEX LD)	+5,307	LONG 24%	L −1,973 / S −154	+7.9%	+1.7%	—
DIVERGE — both legs cut (net −1,819, rel 32 → 24) into a +7.9% rally. A thin book leaving a rising market; no crowd either way.
	NatGas	−89,481	SHORT 67%	L −10,476 / S +7,332	+3.6%	+2.4%	SQUEEZE FUEL
DIVERGE — the short REBUILT (net −17,808, rel −53 → −67) into a +3.6% rise, then +2.4% since to $2.975. Trapped on the week, but storage is above the 5-yr average heading to a record 3,985 Bcf — the glut backs the short. Fuel without a spark.
PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · the crowds were cut with the price; copper trimmed into a tighter LME
	Copper (HG)	+72,882	LONG 92% ⚑	L −677 / S +2,712	−3.1%	+1.2%	TIGHT · NEVER SHORT
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −3,389 (rel 97 → 92) as copper fell −3.1% to $6.60 then +1.2% since. LME stocks down 42 straight days to ~205kt; US imports at a 12-year high. Crowded and tight — the short stays vetoed.
	Gold	+136,771	LONG 84% ⚑	L −10,098 / S −2,122	−6.3%	+1.8%	CROWD LONG ⚑
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — longs cut with the price (net −7,976, rel 89 → 84) as gold fell −6.3% to $4,396 on ~70% Fed hike odds, then +1.8% since to $4,477. Liquidating, still crowded, below the 200-day.
	Steel HRC	+6,987	LONG 55%	L −687 / S +20	—	—	—
FLAT — the tariff long trimmed (rel 61 → 55). No tradeable price series.
	Platinum	+8,685	LONG 42%	L −1,401 / S +142	−5.1%	+3.4%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↓ — last week’s biggest metals build cut into the dip (net −1,543, rel 49 → 42) as platinum fell −5.1%, then rebounded +3.4% since to $1,826. Sub-extreme, no crowd to fade.
	Silver	+12,598	LONG 34%	L −2,265 / S −790	−5.9%	+2.1%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↓ — both legs shrank (net −1,475, rel 36 → 34) as silver fell −5.9% to $65.37, then +2.1% since. Deleveraging, not a directional crowd.
	Aluminum (COMEX)	−229	SHORT 37%	L 0 / S +70	—	—	—
A 229-lot book. Rel is noise here.
	Palladium	−4,619	SHORT 70% ⚑	L +140 / S −740	−1.3%	+5.5%	COVERING
DIVERGE (covering) — shorts −740 bought back (net +880, rel −83 → −70) as palladium eased −1.3%, then jumped +5.5% since to $1,404, the best since-print metal. The trapped short is finally being covered; still flagged at −70.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS · four books at rel +100 on one print — then the Black Sea premium leaked
	Corn	+401,003	LONG 100% ⚑	L +56,094 / S −27,461	+4.2%	−1.7%	UNWIND TAIL
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — a second giant build (net +83,555, rel 92 → 100, a 52-week high) as corn rose +4.2% to $5.46, then −1.7% since on Turkish Black Sea talks. RSI 75. The crowd is the whole market; WASDE 11-Sep next.
	Wheat (CBOT · SRW)	+14,904	LONG 100%	L +22,113 / S −6,388	+11.3%	−6.2%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↑ — net flipped from −13,597 to +14,904 as SRW ran +11.3% to a 3-year high on Black Sea disruption, then −6.2% since on safe-passage talks. Rel +100 is a base effect on a small net — a thin crowd, and the price already reversed.
	Wheat (KCBT · HRW)	+48,826	LONG 100% ⚑	L +6,440 / S +128	+9.7%	−5.1%	UNWIND TAIL
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — longs +6,440 (still maxed) as HRW rose +9.7% to $8.45, then fell −5.1% since. A maxed crowd that watched a 3-year high roll over; the smallest US winter wheat crop since 1963 is the support under it.
	Soybeans	+234,920	LONG 100% ⚑	L +31,115 / S −3,126	+6.5%	−0.6%	UNWIND TAIL
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — net +34,241 (rel 86 → 100, a 52-week high) as beans rose +6.5% to $13.18 on a multi-year-low crop rating and a hot, dry forecast; −0.6% since. Maxed and still adding.
	Soybean Meal	+157,179	LONG 100% ⚑	L +48,568 / S −12,658	+7.1%	+0.7%	UNWIND TAIL
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — the biggest relative build in the complex (net +61,226, rel 73 → 100) as meal rose +7.1% to $352.6 and +0.7% since. Mid-crowd to maxed in one print.
	Soybean Oil	+99,823	LONG 59%	L +9,798 / S −4,909	+7.2%	−4.6%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↑ — net +14,707 (rel 51 → 59) as oil rose +7.2% to 72.6c, then dropped −4.6% since, the worst since-print move in the complex. Sub-extreme, but the price already turned on the crowd.
SOFTS · sugar and cotton bought at the ceiling; coffee’s crowd left; cocoa spent its fuel
	Sugar	+233,771	LONG 100% ⚑	L +36,401 / S +647	+6.3%	−1.6%	TIGHT · NEVER SHORT
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — a fourth week of buying at the ceiling (net +35,754, a 52-week high, rel +100) as sugar rose +6.3% to 18.36c, then −1.6% since. ADX 57. Brazil’s ethanol-diversion deficit still backs the crowd — a physically backed extreme.
	Cotton	+100,963	LONG 100% ⚑	L +11,309 / S −1,361	+3.6%	−5.7%	UNWIND TAIL
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — longs +11,309 (maxed) as cotton rose +3.6% to 91.55c, then fell −5.7% since — the worst since-print move in softs. A maxed crowd that just lost the week’s gain.
	Coffee (Arabica)	+26,729	LONG 53%	L −2,216 / S +2,243	−7.8%	−4.5%	CROWD LONG
CONFIRM↓ — the crowd left with the price (net −4,459, rel 62 → 53) as arabica fell −7.8% to $3.09 and −4.5% since, the lowest since 6-Aug, on Brazil’s record ~75m-bag crop. RSI 39. El Niño flowering risk is the only physical support left.
	Cocoa (NYBOT)	−4,750	SHORT 21%	L +4,125 / S −1,583	+12.7%	−5.8%	COVERING
CONFIRM↑ (covering) — the squeeze kept firing (net +5,708, rel −45 → −21) as cocoa rose +12.7% to $6,571 on Ghana/Ivory Coast crop cuts, then −5.8% since. No longer a flagged crowd; most of the fuel is spent.
LIVESTOCK · a new cattle short forming against a 75-year-low herd
	Live Cattle	+48,851	LONG 35%	L −2,302 / S +8,576	+0.5%	+0.4%	TIGHT · NEVER SHORT
FLAT — shorts +8,576 built (net −10,878, rel 43 → 35) as cattle rose +0.5% then +0.4% since to $212.95. A short crowd forming against a 75-year-low herd — the physical world is on the other side of it.
	Feeder Cattle	+8,436	LONG 31%	L +32 / S +482	+0.7%	+1.5%	TIGHT · NEVER SHORT
DIVERGE — shorts +482 into a +0.7% rise (rel 32 → 31); +1.5% since. Thin flow, same scarcity veto.
	Lean Hogs	−34,691	SHORT 80% ⚑	L +1,308 / S −99	+4.0%	−1.6%	CROWD SHORT ⚑
CONFIRM↑ (covering) ⚑ — longs +1,308 (net +1,407, rel −84 → −80) as hogs rose +4.0% to $83.65, then −1.6% since on a $2.77 drop in pork carcass values. The crowded short barely moved; the squeeze risk is intact.

Base metals · London (LME)Investment Funds · as of Fri 21 Aug — the 1-Sep COTR had not posted by this run (UK bank holiday), positioning unchanged · Px = London week 21→28 Aug; since = 28 Aug→latest · tin & LME copper omitted

	Metal	Funds net	Crowd & fuel	Flow (Δnet)	Px · 21→28 Aug	· since	Crowd state
	Zinc	+54,978	LONG 99% ⚑	Δnet −448 (as of 21 Aug)	+3.4%	+0.8%	TIGHT · NEVER SHORT
CONFIRM ⚑ — positioning is as of Fri 21 Aug (the 1-Sep COTR had not posted by this run). Funds trimmed −448 (rel 99) while zinc rose +3.4% in the London week 21→28 Aug to $4,084 and +0.8% since to $4,115; cancelled warrants hit a one-year high. Tight and crowded — a physically backed extreme.
	Aluminium	+142,436	LONG 72% ⚑	Δnet +306 (as of 21 Aug)	+0.3%	+1.8%	TIGHT · NEVER SHORT
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 21 Aug. Funds +306 (rel 72) as alu rose +0.3% in the London week and +1.8% since to $3,293, trading a narrow range since its 11-Aug eight-week high. Backwardation persists; the short stays vetoed on tightness.
	Nickel	+14,435	LONG 37%	Δnet +1,581 (as of 21 Aug)	−1.2%	−0.1%	—
CONFIRM — as of 21 Aug. Funds +1,581 (rel 37) as nickel eased −1.2% in the London week to $16,701 and −0.1% since. Sub-extreme, no crowd.
	Lead	−23,717	SHORT 100% ⚑	Δnet −3,299 (as of 21 Aug)	+0.9%	−0.1%	SQUEEZE FUEL
DIVERGE ⚑ — as of 21 Aug. The record short (rel −100) sat under a +0.9% London week to $1,873 and a flat tape since. Crowded fuel with no scarcity narrative to light it.

FXLegacy Non-Commercial · per currency (red = specs short that currency) · USD row = implied mirror · context only

	Ccy	Pair	Net	Δ Net	Crowd	Pair · 25 Aug→1 Sep	· since	Crowd state
	JPY	USD/JPY	−92,227	−28,929	−56%	+0.6%	−2.5%	SQUEEZE FIRING
The biggest FX move of the print: shorts +17,758, longs −11,171 (rel −39 → −56) as the yen eased −0.6% in the COT week to 160.2 — a clean confirm — and then the squeeze fired: the yen ripped +2.5% since to 156.2 (touching 155.3) as BoJ’s Takata called for nimble hikes, Bessent said he expects Tokyo to act, and a September BoJ hike became nearly fully priced (decision 18-Sep). Three weeks of a short built into strength, now offside by 4 yen. USD/JPY RSI 33, below every SMA.
	EUR	EUR/USD	−24,925	+11,427	−34%	−0.7%	+0.2%	COVERING
Covering into a falling euro: shorts −6,869, longs +4,558 (rel −50 → −34) as EUR fell −0.7% in the COT week to 1.159, then +0.2% since to 1.161 — parked on its 200-day (1.163). The fuel keeps being spent without the price rewarding it; no longer a crowd worth flagging.
	CAD	USD/CAD	−108,143	+13,379	−60%	−0.4%	+0.5%	COVERING
The third straight week of covering: shorts −13,383 (rel −68 → −60) as CAD slipped −0.4% in the COT week, then firmed +0.5% since. USD/CAD is at 1.383, back under its 200-day (1.3836) and 20-day (1.3863). Still a crowd, no longer flagged.
	GBP	GBP/USD	−49,575	−5,051	−47%	−1.0%	−0.0%	CROWD SHORT
Both legs cut, longs more (L −8,226 / S −3,175, net −5,051, rel −42 → −47) as sterling fell −1.0% in the COT week to 1.3515 and held since. Deleveraging in a falling pair; mid-range, no trigger.
	CHF	USD/CHF	−22,876	−2,930	−52%	−1.3%	+0.2%	CROWD SHORT
Shorts +2,904 (rel −45 → −52) as the franc fell −1.3% in the COT week to 0.8116, then firmed +0.2% since. Follows the euro; no trigger of its own.
	AUD	AUD/USD	−39,406	+5,049	−47%	−0.2%	+0.8%	UNWIND WATCH
Longs +7,241 vs shorts +2,192 (net +5,049, rel −53 → −47) as AUD eased −0.2% in the COT week, then +0.8% since to 0.7201 — RSI 66, above every SMA, at a cycle high. A crowded short in a currency making new highs is getting more offside every week; the unwind watch is on the short crowd.
	NZD	NZD/USD	−8,021	+6,218	−12%	−1.4%	−0.2%	—
Shorts −4,463 covered (rel −22 → −12) into a −1.4% kiwi fall. The multi-week unwind is finished; no crowd left in either direction.
	MXN	USD/MXN	+93,247	+10,865	+85%	−0.3%	+0.7%	CROWD LONG ⚑
Longs +14,744 (net +10,865, rel 75 → 85) even as the peso slipped −0.3% in the COT week; +0.7% since with USD/MXN at 16.88, RSI 30. The one net-long currency, now crowded — a tail on the peso long.
	USD	DXY basket	+$26.9bn	−$0.7bn	—	+0.8%	−0.5%	—
The aggregate spec dollar long slipped to +$26.9bn (−$0.7bn) as DXY rose +0.8% in the COT week to 99.65 on the yield backup, then gave back −0.5% since to 99.16 as the yen rally weighed — below its 20-day, sitting on the 200-day (99.14). A currency that rallied on the week and could not hold it.

Rates · Equities · VIXTFF · rates via Asset Managers (real money), equities & VIX via Leveraged Funds

Rates — Asset Managers

	Contract	AM net	Crowd	Yield Δ · wk	· since	Now	Crowd state
	UST 10Y	+2,604k	100%	+17 bp	−1 bp	4.78%	UNWIND TAIL
AM ADDED +12,141 to a fresh RECORD long (rel 99 → 100) into a +17bp yield backup to 4.80% — the first sizeable yield jump they have bought into all summer. Since the print −1bp to 4.78% as the +162k payroll briefly lifted hike odds and Waller then signalled a hold. Ten weeks of the same trap, now with the price against it.
	UST Bond	+544k	91%	+11 bp	−2 bp	5.24%	UNWIND TAIL
AM added back +22,721 (rel 87 → 91) after last week’s big cut, as the 30Y rose +11bp in the COT week to 5.27% then eased −2bp to 5.24%. The long end re-bought into a higher yield.
	Ultra 10Y	+718k	97%	+17 bp	−1 bp	—	CROWD LONG ⚑
AM trimmed −11,833 (rel 99 → 97). Mirrors the 10Y’s yield move.
	Ultra Bond	+1,021k	85%	+11 bp	−2 bp	—	CROWD LONG ⚑
AM cut −38,174 (rel 89 → 85), the biggest reduction on the curve this week. Mirrors the 30Y.
	UST 5Y	+2,928k	76%	+23 bp	−1 bp	4.55%	UNWIND TAIL
AM added +13,538 (rel unchanged at 76) into the biggest yield move on the curve — +23bp in the COT week to 4.56%, −1bp since. Belly longs bought the sell-off.
	UST 2Y	+1,596k	61%	+22 bp	−3 bp	4.37%	CROWD LONG
AM cut −12,420 (rel 62 → 61) as the 2Y jumped +22bp in the COT week to 4.40%, its highest since January 2025, then eased −3bp to 4.37%. The one duration crowd moving with the price; the outright net is at a 52-week low.

Equity indices — Leveraged Funds

	Index	Lev net	Δ Lev	Crowd	Px · wk	· since	Crowd state
	Russell 2000	−109k	−12k	−100%	−3.0%	+1.9%	CROWD SHORT ⚑
A FRESH RECORD short: −11,799 added (net −109,499, rel −98 → −100) as the Russell fell −3.0% in the COT week to 2,920, then bounced +1.9% since to 2,976. The crowd was right on the week; the position is the most extreme on the entire board.
	S&P 500	−334k	−6k	−64%	+0.4%	+0.0%	CROWD SHORT
The short deepened −5,904 (rel −63 → −64) as the S&P rose +0.4% in the COT week to 7,712 and held since. Quietly the most crowded large-cap short still standing now that Nasdaq has covered.
	Nasdaq-100	−18k	+26k	−18%	−0.5%	+1.6%	COVERING
The record short kept covering: +26,282 bought back (rel −44 → −18), the biggest single cover on the board, as the index dipped −0.5% in the COT week then rose +1.6% since to 29,544. Six weeks of de-risking; the crowd is nearly gone.
	MSCI EM	+44k	+11k	25%	−0.7%	+2.9%	CROWD LONG
Funds ADDED +11,439 (net +43,761, rel 19 → 25) into a −0.7% week, then EM ran +2.9% since to a new high. The least-crowded equity long on the board keeps building.
	Dow (DJIA)	−2k	−0k	−6%	−1.5%	+1.2%	—
Unchanged (−100) as the Dow fell −1.5% in the COT week to 52,772, then +1.2% since. No crowd since the record long dissolved two weeks ago.

Volatility — VIX

	Contract	Lev net	Dealer net	Crowd	VIX Δ · wk	· since	Crowd state
	VIX	−26.3k	+48.9k	−28%	+5.6%	−11.1%	CROWD SHORT
Leveraged funds bought back +3,885 (net −26,258, rel −29 → −28) as VIX rose +5.6% in the COT week to 16.33, then collapsed −11.1% since to 14.52 after Friday’s payroll scare faded — well below every SMA. Dealers hold +48,862. The short-vol book is unchanged in size; the Russell short underneath it just hit a fresh RECORD rel −100 as small caps fell −3.0% on the week.