Each market as a signed share of its own 1-year positioning extreme at the Tue 8-Sep close. Green = crowd long, red = crowd short (currencies per currency). Tap a tile for its read.
Signed mean rel-to-max by class. Rates +84 stayed crowded into a +18–23bp backup since the print; Grains +81 after SRW’s base-effect crowd emptied; FX −8 now that the yen book is net long.
| Market | Class | rel · last → now | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD | FX | −12 → +100 | +112 | |
A base-effect swing: longs +14,810 flipped the book from −8,021 to +6,232, the first net long in the 52-week window, so rel jumps to +100 on a small net — INTO a −0.7% kiwi week and −0.7% since. A thin new crowd, already offside; not a big one. | ||||
| JPY | FX | −56 → +14 | +70 | |
The biggest FX flip of the year: longs +61,622, shorts −41,401 (net +103,023, from −92,227 to +10,796) as the yen ripped +3.9% in the COT week to 153.97. The squeeze fired and finished in one print; no short left. The new crowd is long, and young, into the 18-Sep BoJ. | ||||
| Wheat SRW | Grains | +100 → +33 | −67 | |
The base-effect crowd unwound exactly as flagged last week: longs −9,108 (net −10,031 to +4,873) as SRW fell −4.5% in the COT week to $7.47 and −2.9% since. A thin book on a small net; no crowd left. | ||||
| EUR | FX | −34 → −59 | −25 | |
The short REBUILT on a flat euro: shorts +12,723, longs −4,968 (net −17,691 to −42,616) with EUR/USD +0.3% cotwk and −0.2% since at 1.1598. Last week the fuel was being spent; this week it reloaded without a price move. | ||||
| CAD | FX | −60 → −39 | +21 | |
The biggest cover of the four-week unwind: shorts −19,462, longs +18,182 (net +37,644) as CAD firmed +0.8% in the COT week, then gave back −0.6% since. No longer a flagged crowd; fuel mostly spent. | ||||
Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. Flags for exposure and stops — the trades come from v2 · newcot.
| Counter | Crowd & flow | What it means — risk, not direction |
|---|---|---|
| NatGas | Crowd −72 ⚑, shorts PRESSED +10,721 on a +0.4% week; −2.9% since | The shorts pressed and the price finally fell — the crowd is being paid; storage above the 5-yr average still backs it. Fuel, no spark. |
| Russell 2000 · S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100 | Russell −100 record held; S&P −69 deepened −27,651; Nasdaq REBUILT −18,850 (−18 → −37) — all into a rising week | Three index shorts pressing into a rising tape; since the print all three fell 0.2–1.9%. Paid for now; FOMC 16-Sep is the spark either way. |
| Lead (LME) · EUR · CHF | Lead −100, a fresh 52-wk-low net (as of 4 Sep); EUR shorts rebuilt −34 → −59, CHF −68 on flat pairs | Lead’s short grows with no scarcity story. The European dollar shorts reloaded the fuel they spent last week without the price moving. |
| Counter | Crowd & flow | What it means — risk, not direction |
|---|---|---|
| JPY | Crowd −56 → +14: longs +61,622, shorts −41,401 (net +103,023) as the yen rose +3.9% | Fired and finished in one print — the largest FX flip on the board. No short left to squeeze; the new risk is a young long crowd into the 18-Sep BoJ. |
| CAD · AUD · Lean Hogs | CAD −60 → −39 (+37,644 covered) into +0.8%; AUD −47 → −41 near cycle highs; hogs −80 → −69 | Dollar shorts covering with the price rewarding it; since the print both gave back. Hogs bled out under the flag and fell anyway — fuel spent, not squeezed. |
| Heating Oil (the mirror) | Crowd 53 → 40, longs cut −4,247 into a −2.3% week — then diesel +8.6% since | Not a short squeeze but its mirror: the crowd that left the tightest product in the barrel got run over by the move it had been positioned for. |
| Counter | Crowd & flow | What it means — risk, not direction |
|---|---|---|
| Corn · Soybeans · Meal · HRW | All +100; corn +13,456 INTO −2.3%, beans +22,338 on a flat week; WASDE raised the soy yield when a cut was expected | The most crowded class kept adding while the price slipped and every WASDE line beat the trade estimate. The unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry — never a short. |
| Copper · WTI · RBOB | Copper +82,154 record (rel 100) then −4.0% since as LME stocks rebuilt; WTI +111,731 record; RBOB 93 | Two fresh records at the ceiling. Copper’s tightness eased the week it maxed — the purest tail. WTI’s is physically backed: a tail that is also never a short. |
| UST 10Y · 5Y · Bond | 10Y 98, 5Y 74, Bond 89 — trimmed −42,532 / −80,658 / −11,802 on a flat week, then yields +18 / +22 / +11bp since | Eleven weeks of the same duration trap; the first real trim came right before the next leg against it. Only the 2Y crowd re-added (+24,787). |
| Counter | Crowd & flow | What it means — risk, not direction |
|---|---|---|
| WTI · products | Hormuz flows under 2m b/d, Saudi August output −1.9m b/d, tanker rates at records, US crude stocks drew | The physical world backs the record crowd — a tail on the long, never a short. OPEC+ held October quotas; next meeting 4-Oct. |
| LME Zinc · Aluminium | Zinc +62,652 a fresh 52-wk high (rel 100), alu 76 — both added (as of 4 Sep); zinc cash–3M backwardation $231/t | Never short. Crowded and physically backed; the extremes are tails, not fades. |
| Cattle · Sugar | Cattle +2.3% / feeders +3.2% with the fund net at a 52-wk LOW against a 75-yr-low herd; sugar +100, shorts covered −7,520 | Scarcity on the other side of a thin long crowd; sugar’s ethanol-diversion deficit still backs its maxed long. Copper leaves this list this week. |
Why no trades: the 6-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at 1–8 week holds and shorting a crowded long the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). v1 displays; v2 decides.
How each crowd moved versus how price moved in the same week (Tue 1 Sep → 8 Sep). CONFIRM = they agreed; DIVERGE = a crowd offside. Tap + for the read.
| Market | Positioning move · the week | Crowd | Px · 1→8 Sep | Read | · since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (yen) | longs +61,622, shorts COVERED −41,401 — net −92,227 → +10,796 | LONG +14% (was −56%) | +3.9% | CONFIRM ✓ | +0.3% | |
The biggest FX flip of the year and the squeeze that fired last week finishing in one print. Net +103,023 as the yen ripped +3.9% in the COT week to 153.97 (from 160.17) and +0.3% since to 153.47, its strongest in ~7 months, after Bessent warned against betting on a weaker yen and a BoJ hike to 1.25% on 18-Sep became consensus. The short built for three weeks into strength is gone; there is no fuel left on that side. The new risk is a young long crowd into the BoJ meeting. USD/JPY RSI 28, ADX 49, below every SMA. | ||||||
| WTI / RBOB | WTI longs +13,660, shorts −3,790 — a fresh RECORD · RBOB +3,633 | LONG +100% · +93% ⚑ | +3.1% / +3.7% | CONFIRM ✓ | +7.5% / +1.7% | |
WTI hit a 52-week-high net of +111,731 (rel 94 → 100) as it rose +3.1% in the COT week to $93.03 — then +7.5% since to $100.05, the first close above $100 in nearly four months, as Hormuz flows fell under 2m b/d, tankers and Saudi infrastructure were attacked and Saudi August output dropped ~1.9m b/d. RBOB +3.7% / +1.7%. Diesel went the other way: the crowd cut −4,985 into a −2.3% week, then diesel ran +8.6% since, the best since-print move on the board. OPEC+ held October quotas. Maxed and physically backed — the short veto and the unwind tail on the same contract. | ||||||
| Copper | longs ADDED +6,577, shorts −2,695 — a fresh RECORD | LONG +100% ⚑ | +3.4% | CONFIRM ✓ | −4.0% | |
Net +9,272 to +82,154 (rel 92 → 100, a 52-week high) as copper rose +3.4% in the COT week to $6.82 — then fell −4.0% since to $6.548, below its 20-day, as LME stocks rebuilt to ~238kt from the ~205kt low and the 42-day draw ended. The tightness that vetoed the short eased the same week the crowd maxed. A record long with the physical support weakening is the purest unwind tail on the board; it leaves the tight list this week. | ||||||
| Corn | longs ADDED +23,178, shorts +9,722 INTO a falling week | LONG +100% ⚑ | −2.3% | DIVERGE ⚠ | −0.6% | |
A third straight build at the ceiling: net +13,456 to +414,459, a fresh 52-week high, into a −2.3% week to $5.335, then −0.6% since to $5.30. Friday’s WASDE cut the yield to 178.5 and stocks to 1.6bn — bullish on its face — but every headline beat the trade estimate and corn closed −0.7%. RSI 67, ADX 47, above every SMA. The most crowded book on the board keeps adding while the price slips; the unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry. | ||||||
| Soybeans / Meal | beans longs +22,765 · meal both legs CUT (L −5,104 / S −5,614) | LONG +100% · +100% ⚑ | −0.1% / −0.8% | FLAT | −1.5% / +0.9% | |
Beans added to a 52-week-high net +257,258 on a flat week, then fell −1.5% since to $12.965 as WASDE RAISED the soy yield to 52.8 when the trade expected a cut (beans −2.7% Friday). Meal deleveraged at the top (net +510, rel 100), −0.8% cotwk then +0.9% since. Soy oil’s crowd left with the price (rel 59 → 55, −2.7% / −1.4%). Maxed, still adding, and the report went against it. | ||||||
| Wheat (SRW / HRW) | SRW longs CUT −9,108 (rel 100 → 33) · HRW both legs cut | LONG +33% · +100% ⚑ | −4.5% / −3.1% | CONFIRM ✓ | −2.9% / −2.5% | |
SRW’s base-effect crowd unwound exactly as flagged last week: net −10,031 to +4,873 (rel 100 → 33) as SRW fell −4.5% in the COT week to $7.47 and −2.9% since to $7.2525. HRW deleveraged (L −3,706 / S −3,556, net −150, still maxed on +48,676) as it fell −3.1% to $8.19 and −2.5% since to $7.985, on its 20-day. USDA left the wheat balance unchanged. One thin book emptied; one maxed crowd shrinking with the price. | ||||||
| UST 10Y / 5Y | AM CUT −42,532 (10Y) and −80,658 (5Y) on a flat yield week — then the backup resumed | LONG +98% · +74% ⚑ | −0bp / +1bp | FLAT | +18bp / +22bp | |
The first real trim in eleven weeks came on a flat COT week (10Y 4.79%, 5Y 4.57%) — and right before the next leg against the crowd: since the print the 2Y +23bp to 4.63% (highest since January 2025), 5Y +22bp, 10Y +18bp to 4.97%, 30Y +11bp, as the hot August core CPI (+0.3%) took September hike odds to ~90% into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. Only the 2Y crowd re-added (+24,787). Every other tenor is a crowded long that just took another price hit. | ||||||
| Gold | both legs CUT (L −3,917 / S −2,118) into a rising week | LONG +84% ⚑ | +1.0% | DIVERGE ⚠ | −0.7% | |
Net −1,799 (rel 84) as gold rose +1.0% in the COT week to $4,439, then −0.7% since to $4,409 (spot $4,385, a one-month low) on the CPI-driven hike repricing. Silver (rel 34 → 39, +2.5% then −2.7% after a −6% day) and platinum (42 → 47, +4.9% then −3.0%) were bought in the week and hit since. Gold is deleveraging and still crowded, below the 20- and 200-day. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 / Nasdaq / S&P | Russell record short HELD · Nasdaq REBUILT −18,850 · S&P deepened −27,651 | SHORT −100% ⚑ · −37% · −69% | +1.4% / +1.5% / +0.6% | DIVERGE ⚠ | −1.9% / −0.5% / −0.2% | |
All three index shorts pressed or held into a rising week — the Russell record (−110,147, rel −100) into +1.4%, Nasdaq’s short rebuilt after six weeks of covering (rel −18 → −37) into +1.5%, the S&P deepened to −69 into +0.6% — then all three fell since (Russell −1.9% to 2,904 below every SMA, Nasdaq −0.5%, S&P −0.2%) as the 2Y jumped +23bp. Offside on the week, paid since. EM funds added +1,014 into a +3.1% week, then −1.4%. | ||||||
| EUR / CHF / GBP (dollar shorts) | EUR shorts +12,723 (rel −34 → −59) · CHF −52 → −68 · GBP −47 → −56 | SHORT −59% · −68% · −56% | +0.3% / +0.3% / +0.2% | FLAT | −0.2% / −0.8% / −0.1% | |
While the yen and loonie shorts were covered, the European shorts reloaded on flat pairs: EUR net −17,691 to −42,616 (shorts rebuilt, longs cut) with the euro +0.3% cotwk and −0.2% since at 1.1598; CHF shorts +4,470 (one point from the flag), franc −0.8% since; GBP longs cut −11,866. Fuel building again without a price move. CAD covered +37,644 (rel −60 → −39) into a +0.8% loonie week, then −0.6% since; AUD shrank to −41 with the aussie near cycle highs. | ||||||
| NatGas | shorts PRESSED +10,721, longs +3,460 | SHORT −72% ⚑ | +0.4% | FLAT | −2.9% | |
Net −7,261 to −96,742 (rel −67 → −72) on a +0.4% week to $2.916 — then gas fell −2.9% since to $2.831, below its 200-day, Sell-rated. The crowd that was trapped last week is being paid this week, and storage stays above the 5-year average. Crowded fuel with the physical world on the crowd’s side; no spark. | ||||||
| Sugar | shorts COVERED −7,520, longs −2,607 — net +4,913 at the ceiling | LONG +100% ⚑ | −1.4% | DIVERGE ⚠ | +0.3% | |
A fifth week at rel 100: net +238,684, a fresh 52-week high, but this week from short covering rather than new longs, as sugar eased −1.4% in the COT week to 18.10c, then +0.3% since. RSI 60, ADX 57, above every SMA. The Brazil ethanol-diversion deficit still backs the crowd — physically backed and maxed, the extreme is a tail on the long side. | ||||||
| Cotton | longs CUT −7,137, shorts −1,541 as price fell | LONG +94% ⚑ | −5.7% | CONFIRM ✓ | −0.3% | |
Net −5,596 to +95,367 (rel 100 → 94) as cotton fell −5.7% in the COT week to 86.32c and −0.3% since to 86.06c, below its 20-day. The maxed crowd started leaving with the price; WASDE tightened the cotton balance, which is the support under what is left. | ||||||
| Coffee / Cocoa | coffee longs −2,950 · cocoa shorts REBUILT +1,987, longs −2,020 | LONG +44% · SHORT −38% | −5.9% / −10.0% | CONFIRM ✓ | −1.9% / +0.8% | |
Coffee’s crowd keeps leaving with the price (rel 53 → 44) as arabica fell −5.9% in the COT week to $2.913 and −1.9% since to $2.857, the lowest since June, on Brazil’s completed record harvest — RSI 35, below every SMA. Cocoa’s squeeze reversed: the short rebuilt (rel −21 → −38) as cocoa fell −10.0% to $5,913, then +0.8% since. Fuel reloading in cocoa; not yet flagged. | ||||||
| Cattle / Hogs | cattle flat flow, net at a 52-wk LOW · hogs shorts COVERED −4,008 | LONG +35% · SHORT −69% | +2.3% / +0.7% | CONFIRM ✓ | +1.2% / −3.2% | |
Live cattle rose +2.3% in the COT week to $217.03 and +1.2% since to $219.68 with the fund net (+48,905) at a 52-week LOW against a 75-year-low herd; feeders +3.2% / +2.2% with shorts adding +835 — the thinnest long crowds in a year, physically backed. Hogs covered (rel −80 → −69, no longer flagged) as the price rose +0.7%, then fell −3.2% since to $81.53. Fuel bleeding out without a spark. | ||||||
| Asset | Now | Trend | RSI(14) | Vol ATR% | TV rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $5.30 | ▲ up | 67 | 2.4% | Buy | |
A third straight build at the ceiling: longs +23,178, shorts +9,722 (net +13,456 to +414,459, a fresh 52-week high, rel 100) into a −2.3% COT week to $5.335, then −0.6% since to $5.30. Friday’s WASDE cut the yield 2.2 bu to 178.5, production −213m bu to 15.8bn and stocks to 1.6bn — bullish on its face, but every headline beat the trade estimate, so corn closed −0.7%. RSI 67, ADX 47, above every SMA, Buy-rated; the crowd is the whole market. | ||||||
| Wheat (SRW) | $7.2525 | ▼ down | 53 | 3.6% | Neutral | |
The base-effect crowd unwound exactly as flagged: longs −9,108 (net −10,031 to +4,873, rel 100 → 33) as SRW fell −4.5% in the COT week to $7.47 and −2.9% since to $7.2525, under its 20-day ($7.29). USDA left the wheat balance unchanged. A thin book on a small net; no crowd left. | ||||||
| Wheat (HRW) | $7.985 | ▬ flat | 54 | 3.3% | Neutral | |
Both legs cut (L −3,706 / S −3,556, net −150, still rel 100 on +48,676) as HRW fell −3.1% in the COT week to $8.19 and −2.5% since to $7.985, sitting exactly on its 20-day ($7.99). A maxed crowd deleveraging with the price; the smallest US winter wheat crop since 1963 is still the support under it. | ||||||
| Soybeans | $12.965 | ▲ up | 60 | 1.7% | Buy | |
Longs +22,765 (net +22,338 to +257,258, a 52-week high, rel 100) on a flat COT week (−0.1%), then −1.5% since to $12.965 — WASDE raised the soy yield to 52.8 bu when the trade expected a cut, and beans fell −2.7% Friday. Meal deleveraged at the top (L −5,104 / S −5,614). RSI 60, ADX 35, above every SMA, Buy-rated — maxed and still adding into a report that went against it. | ||||||
| Sugar | 18.15c | ▲ up | 60 | 3.4% | Buy | |
A fifth week at the ceiling: net +4,913 to +238,684 (a fresh 52-week high, rel 100) — from shorts covering −7,520 rather than new longs — as sugar eased −1.4% in the COT week to 18.10c, then +0.3% since. RSI 60, ADX 57, above every SMA. The Brazil ethanol-diversion deficit still backs the crowd; the extreme is a tail on the long side. | ||||||
| WTI crude | $100.05 | ▲ up | 72 | 4.1% | Buy | |
A fresh RECORD long: longs +13,660, shorts −3,790 (net +17,450 to +111,731, rel 94 → 100) as WTI rose +3.1% in the COT week to $93.03 — then +7.5% since to $100.05, the first close above $100 in nearly four months and ~13% on the week, as Hormuz flows fell under 2m b/d (vs 8–9m pre-war), tankers and Saudi infrastructure were attacked, Saudi August output dropped ~1.9m b/d and tanker rates hit records. OPEC+ held October quotas on 6-Sep (next meeting 4-Oct). RSI 72, ADX 25, above every SMA. Maxed and physically backed. | ||||||
| Gold | $4,409 | ▼ down | 48 | 2.5% | Sell | |
Both legs cut (L −3,917 / S −2,118, net −1,799, rel 84) as gold rose +1.0% in the COT week to $4,439, then −0.7% since to $4,409 — spot $4,385, a one-month low — as the August CPI (headline +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%) pushed September hike odds to ~90% into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. RSI 48, Sell-rated, below the 20-day ($4,520) and 200-day ($4,550). Deleveraging, still crowded. | ||||||
| Silver | $65.19 | ▼ down | 48 | 4.3% | Sell | |
Longs +1,992 (net +1,788, rel 34 → 39) as silver rose +2.5% in the COT week to $67.00, then −2.7% since to $65.19 after a −6% day on Thursday’s hike repricing. RSI 48, Sell-rated, below the 20-day ($66.97) and 200-day ($72.55). Not a crowd. | ||||||
| Platinum | $1,798 | ▬ flat | 50 | 4.0% | Sell | |
Longs +904 (net +1,102, rel 42 → 47) as platinum rose +4.9% in the COT week to $1,853, then −3.0% since to $1,798, under its 20-day ($1,824), above the 50-day ($1,727). Sub-extreme; no crowd to fade either way. | ||||||
| Copper | $6.548 | ▼ down | 47 | 2.4% | Neutral | |
A fresh RECORD long: longs +6,577, shorts −2,695 (net +9,272 to +82,154, rel 92 → 100) as copper rose +3.4% in the COT week to $6.82 — then fell −4.0% since to $6.548, below its 20-day ($6.62), as LME stocks rebuilt to ~238kt (8-Sep) from the ~205kt low and the 42-day draw ended. RSI 47, Neutral. The tightness that vetoed the short eased the same week the crowd maxed — the purest unwind tail on the board. | ||||||
| NatGas | $2.831 | ▼ down | 48 | 3.8% | Sell | |
The short pressed harder: shorts +10,721, longs +3,460 (net −7,261 to −96,742, rel −67 → −72) on a +0.4% COT week to $2.916 — then gas fell −2.9% since to $2.831, below the 20-day ($2.84) and 200-day ($3.25), Sell-rated. The crowd is finally being paid and storage stays above the 5-year average. Crowded fuel, no spark. | ||||||
| Coffee | $2.857 | ▼ down | 35 | 4.5% | Sell | |
Longs −2,950, shorts +1,670 (net −4,620, rel 53 → 44) as arabica fell −5.9% in the COT week to $2.913 and −1.9% since to $2.857, the lowest since June, as Brazil’s record crop is fully harvested and El Niño is the only 2027 risk in play. RSI 35, Sell-rated, below every SMA. The crowd keeps leaving with the price. | ||||||
| Cocoa | $5,961 | ▬ flat | 50 | 5.4% | Neutral | |
The squeeze reversed: shorts +1,987, longs −2,020 (net −4,007 to −8,757, rel −21 → −38) as cocoa fell −10.0% in the COT week to $5,913, then +0.8% since to $5,961, under its 20-day ($6,104). The short is rebuilding into a West African crop-cut market — fuel reloading, not yet flagged. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 | 2,904 | ▼ down | 39 | 1.1% | Sell | |
The record short held (−648, net −110,147, rel −100) into a +1.4% COT week to 2,960 — then the Russell fell −1.9% since to 2,904, below every SMA, RSI 39, Sell-rated, as the 2Y jumped +23bp. Offside on the week, paid since; still the single most extreme position on the board. | ||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | 29,368 | ▬ flat | 51 | 1.3% | Buy | |
The short REBUILT after six weeks of covering: −18,850 (net −36,884, rel −18 → −37) into a +1.5% COT week to 29,508, then −0.5% since to 29,368, on its 20-day. RSI 51, ADX 9 (no trend). The fuel spent in August is being reloaded. | ||||||
| S&P 500 | 7,657 | ▬ flat | 50 | 0.8% | Buy | |
The short deepened −27,651 (net −362,087, rel −64 → −69) into a +0.6% COT week to 7,674, then −0.2% since to 7,657, sitting on its 20-day ($7,685). RSI 50, ADX 12. One point from the flag — the most crowded large-cap short. | ||||||
| VIX | 15.85 | ▬ flat | 50 | 8.6% | Neutral | |
Leveraged funds bought back +2,988 (net −23,270, rel −28 → −25) as VIX fell −3.8% in the COT week to 15.71, then +0.9% since to 15.85 after a −11% Friday on CPI relief. Dealers hold +52,894. A small short-vol book; the index shorts underneath it are the larger position, with the FOMC on 16-Sep. | ||||||
| USD/JPY | 153.47 | ▼ down | 28 | 0.8% | Sell | |
The biggest FX flip of the year: longs +61,622, shorts −41,401 (net +103,023, from −92,227 to +10,796, rel −56 → +14) as the yen ripped +3.9% in the COT week to 153.97 and +0.3% since to 153.47 — its strongest in ~7 months — after Bessent warned against betting on a weaker yen and a BoJ hike to 1.25% on 18-Sep became consensus. RSI 28, ADX 49, Sell-rated, below every SMA. The squeeze fired and finished in one print; the crowd is now long, and young. | ||||||
| EUR/USD | 1.1598 | ▬ flat | 51 | 0.4% | Neutral | |
The short REBUILT: shorts +12,723, longs −4,968 (net −17,691 to −42,616, rel −34 → −59) on a flat euro (+0.3% in the COT week to 1.1624, −0.2% since to 1.1598, on its 20-day, under the 200-day at 1.1632). RSI 51, Neutral. Last week the fuel was being spent; this week it reloaded with no price move. Fuel building. | ||||||
| USD/CAD | 1.3869 | ▬ flat | 49 | 0.4% | Neutral | |
The biggest cover of the four-week unwind: shorts −19,462, longs +18,182 (net +37,644, rel −60 → −39) as CAD firmed +0.8% in the COT week (USD/CAD 1.378), then gave back −0.6% since to 1.387, between its 20-day (1.384) and 50-day (1.397). RSI 49, Neutral. No longer a flagged crowd; fuel mostly spent. | ||||||
| US 2Y / 30Y yield | 4.63% / 5.36% | ▲ up | — | — | — | |
A flat COT week on yields (2Y 4.40%, 10Y −0bp, 30Y −2bp) while asset managers trimmed — 5Y −80,658, 10Y −42,532, Bond −11,802 — and re-added the 2Y +24,787. Then the backup resumed: since the print the 2Y +23bp to 4.63% (highest since January 2025), 5Y +22bp to 4.79%, 10Y +18bp to 4.97% (brushing 5%), 30Y +11bp to 5.36% as the hot August core CPI took hike odds to ~90% into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. Every tenor bar the 2Y is a crowded long that just took another price hit. | ||||||
| US Dollar (DXY) | 99.09 | ▼ down | 44 | 0.4% | Sell | |
DXY fell −0.8% in the COT week to 98.84 as the yen ripped, then +0.3% since to 99.09 — RSI 44, under its 20-day (99.15) and 50-day (100.0), on the 200-day (99.13). The aggregate spec dollar long collapsed to +$19.4bn (−$7.5bn), almost all of it the yen flip. A dollar the crowd is no longer long against the yen. | ||||||
The full data by asset class, numbers first — positioning to Tue 8 Sep 2026, self-pulled from CFTC and the LME. Open a class; tap + on a row for its read.
| Contract | Net | Crowd & fuel | Flow (gross legs) | Px · 1→8 Sep | · since | Crowd state | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY · WTI printed a record long, then crossed $100; the diesel crowd left and got run over | |||||||
| WTI (NYMEX) | +111,731 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +13,660 / S −3,790 | +3.1% | +7.5% | UNWIND TAIL | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — a fresh RECORD (net +17,450, rel 94 → 100) as WTI rose +3.1% to $93.03, then +7.5% since to $100.05 as Hormuz flows fell under 2m b/d and Saudi August output dropped ~1.9m b/d. OPEC+ held October quotas. Maxed and physically backed — never a short. | |||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +92,848 | LONG 93% ⚑ | L +2,929 / S −704 | +3.7% | +1.7% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — net +3,633 (rel 90 → 93) as gasoline rose +3.7% then +1.7% since to $3.3072. Crowded, still adding, behind crude. | |||||||
| NY Harbor ULSD | +15,359 | LONG 40% | L −4,247 / S +738 | −2.3% | +8.6% | CROWD LONG | |
CONFIRM↓ then run over — net −4,985 (rel 53 → 40) as diesel fell −2.3%, then ran +8.6% since to $4.9593, the best since-print move on the board. The crowd left the tightest product in the barrel and missed the move. | |||||||
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +5,913 | LONG 27% | L +606 / S 0 | +3.5% | +6.8% | — | |
CONFIRM↑ — longs +606 (rel 24 → 27) as Brent rose +3.5% to $97.92 and +6.8% since to $104.61. A thin book; no crowd. | |||||||
| NatGas | −96,742 | SHORT 72% ⚑ | L +3,460 / S +10,721 | +0.4% | −2.9% | SQUEEZE FUEL | |
FLAT ⚑ — the short pressed (net −7,261, rel −67 → −72) on a +0.4% week, then gas fell −2.9% since to $2.831 below its 200-day. The crowd is being paid and storage stays above the 5-yr average. Crowded fuel, no spark. | |||||||
| PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · a record copper long as the LME draw ended; gold deleveraged | |||||||
| Copper (HG) | +82,154 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +6,577 / S −2,695 | +3.4% | −4.0% | UNWIND TAIL | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — a fresh RECORD (net +9,272, rel 92 → 100) as copper rose +3.4% to $6.82, then fell −4.0% since to $6.548 as LME stocks rebuilt to ~238kt from ~205kt. The tightness eased the week the crowd maxed — the purest unwind tail on the board. | |||||||
| Gold | +134,972 | LONG 84% ⚑ | L −3,917 / S −2,118 | +1.0% | −0.7% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — both legs cut (net −1,799, rel 84) as gold rose +1.0% to $4,439, then −0.7% since to $4,409 (spot $4,385, a one-month low) as CPI took hike odds to 90%. Deleveraging, still crowded, below the 200-day. | |||||||
| Steel HRC | +7,476 | LONG 59% | L +223 / S −266 | — | — | — | |
FLAT — the tariff long re-added (rel 55 → 59). No tradeable price series. | |||||||
| Platinum | +9,787 | LONG 47% | L +904 / S −198 | +4.9% | −3.0% | CROWD LONG | |
CONFIRM↑ — longs +904 (net +1,102, rel 42 → 47) as platinum rose +4.9% to $1,853, then −3.0% since to $1,798. Sub-extreme, no crowd. | |||||||
| Silver | +14,386 | LONG 39% | L +1,992 / S +204 | +2.5% | −2.7% | CROWD LONG | |
CONFIRM↑ — longs +1,992 (net +1,788, rel 34 → 39) as silver rose +2.5% to $67.00, then −2.7% since to $65.19 after a −6% day on the hike repricing. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Aluminum (COMEX) | −244 | SHORT 40% | L 0 / S +15 | — | — | — | |
A 244-lot book. Rel is noise here. | |||||||
| Palladium | −4,339 | SHORT 66% | L +213 / S −67 | +2.9% | −3.3% | COVERING | |
CONFIRM↑ (covering) — net +280 (rel −70 → −66) as palladium rose +2.9% to $1,369, then −3.3% since to $1,324. The cover slowed; no longer a flagged crowd. | |||||||
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS · four books still at +100 into a falling tape; SRW’s base-effect crowd emptied; WASDE beat every estimate | |||||||
| Corn | +414,459 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +23,178 / S +9,722 | −2.3% | −0.6% | UNWIND TAIL | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — a third build at the ceiling (net +13,456, a 52-week high) into a −2.3% week to $5.335, then −0.6% since. WASDE cut yield to 178.5 and stocks to 1.6bn but beat the trade on every line. RSI 67; the crowd is the whole market. | |||||||
| Wheat (CBOT · SRW) | +4,873 | LONG 33% | L −9,108 / S +923 | −4.5% | −2.9% | CROWD LONG | |
CONFIRM↓ — the base-effect crowd unwound as flagged: net −10,031 (rel 100 → 33) as SRW fell −4.5% to $7.47 and −2.9% since to $7.2525. A thin book on a small net; no crowd left. | |||||||
| Wheat (KCBT · HRW) | +48,676 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L −3,706 / S −3,556 | −3.1% | −2.5% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — both legs cut (net −150, still maxed) as HRW fell −3.1% to $8.19 and −2.5% since to $7.985, on its 20-day. Deleveraging with the price; the smallest US winter wheat crop since 1963 is the support under it. | |||||||
| Soybeans | +257,258 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +22,765 / S +427 | −0.1% | −1.5% | UNWIND TAIL | |
FLAT ⚑ — longs +22,765 (net +22,338, a 52-week high) on a flat week, then −1.5% since to $12.965 as WASDE RAISED the yield to 52.8 when a cut was expected. Maxed, still adding, and the report went against it. | |||||||
| Soybean Meal | +157,689 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L −5,104 / S −5,614 | −0.8% | +0.9% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — both legs cut (net +510, rel 100) as meal eased −0.8% to $349.8, then +0.9% since to $352.8. Deleveraging at the top; still maxed. | |||||||
| Soybean Oil | +91,711 | LONG 55% | L −3,959 / S +4,153 | −2.7% | −1.4% | CROWD LONG | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −8,112 (rel 59 → 55) as oil fell −2.7% to 70.7c and −1.4% since to 69.68c, below its 20-day. The crowd is leaving with the price; sub-extreme. | |||||||
| SOFTS · sugar covered at the ceiling; cotton and coffee’s crowds left with the price; cocoa’s short rebuilt | |||||||
| Sugar | +238,684 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L −2,607 / S −7,520 | −1.4% | +0.3% | TIGHT · NEVER SHORT | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — a fifth week at rel 100 (net +4,913, a 52-week high) from short covering, as sugar eased −1.4% to 18.10c, then +0.3% since. ADX 57. Brazil’s ethanol-diversion deficit still backs the crowd — a physically backed extreme. | |||||||
| Cotton | +95,367 | LONG 94% ⚑ | L −7,137 / S −1,541 | −5.7% | −0.3% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — longs cut (net −5,596, rel 100 → 94) as cotton fell −5.7% to 86.32c and −0.3% since, below its 20-day. The maxed crowd started leaving; WASDE tightened the cotton balance, the support under what is left. | |||||||
| Coffee (Arabica) | +22,109 | LONG 44% | L −2,950 / S +1,670 | −5.9% | −1.9% | CROWD LONG | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −4,620 (rel 53 → 44) as arabica fell −5.9% to $2.913 and −1.9% since to $2.857, the lowest since June, on Brazil’s completed record crop. RSI 35, below every SMA. The crowd keeps leaving with the price. | |||||||
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −8,757 | SHORT 38% | L −2,020 / S +1,987 | −10.0% | +0.8% | CROWD SHORT | |
CONFIRM↓ — the squeeze reversed: the short rebuilt (net −4,007, rel −21 → −38) as cocoa fell −10.0% to $5,913, then +0.8% since. Fuel reloading into a crop-cut market; not yet flagged. | |||||||
| LIVESTOCK · the thinnest cattle crowd in a year against a record-low herd; hogs bled out under the flag | |||||||
| Live Cattle | +48,905 | LONG 35% | L +248 / S +194 | +2.3% | +1.2% | TIGHT · NEVER SHORT | |
CONFIRM↑ — flat flow (net +54, rel 35) but the outright net is a 52-week LOW, as cattle rose +2.3% to $217.03 and +1.2% since to $219.68. The thinnest long crowd in a year against a 75-year-low herd — the physical world is on the long side. | |||||||
| Feeder Cattle | +7,448 | LONG 28% | L −153 / S +835 | +3.2% | +2.2% | TIGHT · NEVER SHORT | |
DIVERGE — shorts +835 into a +3.2% rally (rel 31 → 28, net at a 52-week low); +2.2% since to $332.5. Same scarcity veto. | |||||||
| Lean Hogs | −29,634 | SHORT 69% | L +1,049 / S −4,008 | +0.7% | −3.2% | COVERING | |
CONFIRM↑ (covering) — net +5,057 (rel −80 → −69, no longer flagged) as hogs rose +0.7% to $84.25, then fell −3.2% since to $81.53. The crowd bled out and the price fell anyway; fuel without a spark. | |||||||
| Metal | Funds net | Crowd & fuel | Flow (Δnet) | Px · 28 Aug→4 Sep | · since | Crowd state | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc | +62,652 | LONG 100% ⚑ | Δnet +1,600 wk (+7,674 vs 21 Aug) | +0.8% | −1.9% | TIGHT · NEVER SHORT | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of Fri 4 Sep. Funds +1,600 on the week (+7,674 since the 21-Aug figures shown last time) to +62,652, a fresh 52-week high (rel 99 → 100), as zinc rose +0.8% in the London week 28 Aug→4 Sep to $4,115, then −1.9% since to $4,037. Cash–3M backwardation reached $231/t at end-August. Tight and maxed — a physically backed extreme. | |||||||
| Aluminium | +150,080 | LONG 76% ⚑ | Δnet +1,134 wk (+7,644 vs 21 Aug) | +1.8% | −0.5% | TIGHT · NEVER SHORT | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 4 Sep. Funds +1,134 on the week (+7,644 vs 21 Aug) to +150,080 (rel 72 → 76) as alu rose +1.8% in the London week to $3,293 and −0.5% since to $3,277. Backwardation persists; the short stays vetoed on tightness. | |||||||
| Nickel | +15,155 | LONG 39% | Δnet −978 wk (+720 vs 21 Aug) | −0.1% | −2.2% | — | |
FLAT — as of 4 Sep. Funds −978 (rel 37 → 39) as nickel was flat in the London week at $16,686 and −2.2% since to $16,321. Sub-extreme, no crowd. | |||||||
| Lead | −24,176 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | Δnet +257 wk (−459 vs 21 Aug) | −0.1% | −1.2% | SQUEEZE FUEL | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — as of 4 Sep. The record short grew to −24,176, a fresh 52-week low net (rel −100), under a flat London week at $1,872 and a −1.2% tape since to $1,850. Crowded fuel with no scarcity story to light it. | |||||||
| Ccy | Pair | Net | Δ Net | Crowd | Pair · 1→8 Sep | · since | Crowd state | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPY | USD/JPY | +10,796 | +103,023 | +14% | +3.9% | +0.3% | COVERING | |
The biggest FX flip of the year: longs +61,622, shorts −41,401 (net from −92,227 to +10,796, rel −56 → +14) as the yen ripped +3.9% in the COT week to 153.97 and +0.3% since to 153.47, its strongest in ~7 months, after Bessent warned against betting on a weaker yen and a BoJ hike to 1.25% on 18-Sep became consensus. The squeeze fired and finished in one print — no short left to squeeze. The new crowd is long, and young. USD/JPY RSI 28, ADX 49, below every SMA. | ||||||||
| EUR | EUR/USD | −42,616 | −17,691 | −59% | +0.3% | −0.2% | CROWD SHORT | |
The short REBUILT: shorts +12,723, longs −4,968 (rel −34 → −59) on a flat euro — +0.3% in the COT week to 1.1624, −0.2% since to 1.1598, on its 20-day, under the 200-day (1.1632). Last week the fuel was being spent; this week it reloaded with no price move. Fuel building. | ||||||||
| CAD | USD/CAD | −70,499 | +37,644 | −39% | +0.8% | −0.6% | COVERING | |
The biggest cover of the four-week unwind: shorts −19,462, longs +18,182 (rel −60 → −39) as CAD firmed +0.8% in the COT week (USD/CAD 1.378), then gave back −0.6% since to 1.387, between the 20- and 50-day. No longer a flagged crowd; fuel mostly spent. | ||||||||
| GBP | GBP/USD | −58,836 | −9,261 | −56% | +0.2% | −0.1% | CROWD SHORT | |
Longs cut −11,866, shorts −2,605 (net −9,261, rel −47 → −56) on a flat pound (+0.2% in the COT week, −0.1% since at 1.3523). Deleveraging, drifting toward a crowd; no trigger. | ||||||||
| CHF | USD/CHF | −29,985 | −7,109 | −68% | +0.3% | −0.8% | CROWD SHORT | |
Shorts +4,470, longs −2,639 (rel −52 → −68) as the franc rose +0.3% in the COT week, then fell −0.8% since (USD/CHF 0.8162, RSI 61). One point from the flag; follows the euro. | ||||||||
| AUD | AUD/USD | −34,870 | +4,536 | −41% | +1.0% | −0.7% | UNWIND WATCH | |
Longs +6,427, shorts +1,891 (net +4,536, rel −47 → −41) as AUD rose +1.0% in the COT week to 0.7216, then −0.7% since to 0.7167 — RSI 55, above every SMA, near cycle highs. A shrinking short in a strong currency; the unwind watch stays on the short crowd. | ||||||||
| NZD | NZD/USD | +6,232 | +14,253 | +100% | −0.7% | −0.7% | CROWD LONG | |
A base-effect +100: longs +14,810 flipped the book from −8,021 to +6,232, the first net long in the 52-week window, INTO a −0.7% kiwi week and −0.7% since (0.5812, RSI 40, Sell-rated). A thin new crowd on a small net, already offside — not a big crowd. | ||||||||
| MXN | USD/MXN | +94,732 | +1,485 | +87% | +0.5% | −0.3% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
Both legs cut, shorts more (L −4,851 / S −6,336, net +1,485, rel 85 → 87) as the peso firmed +0.5% in the COT week (USD/MXN 16.91); −0.3% since at 16.97, RSI 44. The one crowded net-long currency, deleveraging at the top. | ||||||||
| USD | DXY basket | +$19.4bn | −$7.5bn | — | −0.8% | +0.3% | — | |
The aggregate spec dollar long collapsed to +$19.4bn (−$7.5bn), almost all of it the yen flip (+$8.1bn), as DXY fell −0.8% in the COT week to 98.84, then +0.3% since to 99.09 — under its 20- and 50-day, on the 200-day (99.13). The crowd is no longer long dollars against the yen; it is still short the Europeans. | ||||||||
| Contract | AM net | Crowd | Yield Δ · wk | · since | Now | Crowd state | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y | +2,562k | 98% | −0 bp | +18 bp | 4.97% | UNWIND TAIL | |
AM trimmed −42,532 off last week’s record (rel 100 → 98) on a flat COT week (4.79%) — then the 10Y backed up +18bp since to 4.97%, brushing 5% after the hot August core CPI. Eleven weeks of the same crowded long; the first real trim came right before the next leg against it. | |||||||
| UST Bond | +533k | 89% | −2 bp | +11 bp | 5.36% | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
AM cut −11,802 (rel 91 → 89) as the 30Y slipped −2bp in the COT week to 5.25%, then rose +11bp since to 5.36%. Still a crowded long end. | |||||||
| Ultra 10Y | +720k | 97% | −0 bp | +18 bp | — | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
AM +2,078 (rel 97). Mirrors the 10Y. | |||||||
| Ultra Bond | +1,025k | 86% | −2 bp | +11 bp | — | CROWD LONG ⚑ | |
AM +4,071 (rel 85 → 86). Mirrors the 30Y. | |||||||
| UST 5Y | +2,847k | 74% | +1 bp | +22 bp | 4.79% | UNWIND TAIL | |
The biggest cut on the curve: AM −80,658 (rel 76 → 74) on a +1bp week to 4.57% — then the belly sold off +22bp since to 4.79%. The crowd that bought last week’s 23bp backup gave some back before the next one. | |||||||
| UST 2Y | +1,621k | 62% | +0 bp | +23 bp | 4.63% | CROWD LONG | |
AM added back +24,787 (rel 61 → 62) off last week’s 52-week-low net on an unchanged 4.40% — then the 2Y jumped +23bp since to 4.63%, its highest since January 2025, as September hike odds hit ~90% after CPI (FOMC 15–16 Sep). The one tenor that re-added, right into the move. | |||||||
| Index | Lev net | Δ Lev | Crowd | Px · wk | · since | Crowd state | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | −110k | −1k | −100% | +1.4% | −1.9% | CROWD SHORT ⚑ | |
The record short held (−648, net −110,147, rel −100) into a +1.4% COT week to 2,960 — then the Russell fell −1.9% since to 2,904, below every SMA, RSI 39, as the 2Y jumped +23bp. Offside on the week, paid since; still the most extreme position on the board. | |||||||
| S&P 500 | −362k | −28k | −69% | +0.6% | −0.2% | CROWD SHORT | |
The short deepened −27,651 (rel −64 → −69) into a +0.6% COT week to 7,674, then −0.2% since to 7,657 on its 20-day. One point from the flag — the most crowded large-cap short. | |||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | −37k | −19k | −37% | +1.5% | −0.5% | CROWD SHORT | |
The short REBUILT after six weeks of covering: −18,850 (net −36,884, rel −18 → −37) into a +1.5% COT week to 29,508, then −0.5% since to 29,368. The fuel spent in August is being reloaded. | |||||||
| MSCI EM | +45k | +1k | 26% | +3.1% | −1.4% | CROWD LONG | |
Funds +1,014 (net +44,775, rel 26) as EM rose +3.1% in the COT week to a new high, then −1.4% since to 67.84. The least-crowded equity long keeps building slowly. | |||||||
| Dow (DJIA) | −3k | −2k | −13% | +0.0% | −0.4% | — | |
Funds −1,738 (rel −6 → −13) on a flat Dow (52,791; −0.4% since). No crowd. | |||||||
| Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Crowd | VIX Δ · wk | · since | Crowd state | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | −23.3k | +52.9k | −25% | −3.8% | +0.9% | CROWD SHORT | |
Leveraged funds bought back +2,988 (net −23,270, rel −28 → −25) as VIX fell −3.8% in the COT week to 15.71, then +0.9% since to 15.85 after a −11% Friday on CPI relief. Dealers hold +52,894. A small short-vol book; the index shorts underneath it are the larger position — Russell −100 (record), S&P −69, Nasdaq rebuilt to −37 — with the FOMC on 16-Sep. | |||||||