The yen crowd is now the record long — and offside
Longs +59,160, shorts −50,403: net +10,796 → +120,359 (rel +14 → +100, a 52-week high) as the yen fell −0.7%, then −1.1% since to 156.85 after a 7–2 BoJ hike.
What changed
How the conclusions moved since the 8-Sep print. Open a card for the why.
FX · the yenCoveringUnwind tailFrom a crowd flipped net long to the record long — offside
Last week the yen short vanished in one print (net −92,227 → +10,796, rel −56 → +14) as the yen ripped +3.9%. This week the crowd kept buying: longs +59,160, shorts −50,403, net +109,563 to +120,359, a 52-week high (rel +100) — while the yen FELL −0.7% in the COT week and −1.1% since to 156.85. The BoJ delivered the expected hike to 1.25% on 18-Sep, but on a 7–2 split, and Ueda’s tone disappointed; the yen weakened on the news. In two weeks the crowd went from −56 to +100 and is now offside — the fuel that was squeeze risk is now unwind risk. The euro and loonie shorts were covered the same week (EUR −59 → −37, CAD −39 → −21), leaving the aggregate spec dollar long at +$5.9bn, nearly flat.
RatesUnwind tailUnwind tailThe trim reversed: real money bought the 2Y and 10Y into the first hike
Last week asset managers made their first real trim in eleven weeks on a flat yield week — and then yields backed up after the close. This week they bought the backup: 2Y +111,508 (rel 62 → 67) and 10Y +73,299 to a fresh record (rel 100), with Ultra 10Y also at 100, as the 2Y and 5Y rose +27bp and the 10Y +21bp to 5.01%. They sold the long end instead — Ultra Bond −118,271, Bond −72,005 (rel 89 → 77). On 16-Sep the Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4% (12–0, the first hike since 2023; 16 of 19 officials see another this year) and the 10Y touched 5%. Since the print the 2Y +8bp to 4.76%, the 10Y flat at 5.00%. A record duration long adding into a hiking cycle is the tail.
Metals · copperUnwind tailSqueeze firingThe unwind tail fired: −17,048 into a −5.6% week
Last week copper printed a record long (+82,154, rel 100) the same week LME stocks rebuilt from the ~205kt low — flagged as the purest unwind tail on the board. This week it unwound: longs −14,303, shorts +2,745 (net −17,048 to +65,106, rel 100 → 79) as copper fell −5.6% in the COT week to $6.44. Then +3.8% since to $6.69 as metals steadied after the Fed. Gold deleveraged again (rel 83) into a −2.4% week and rebounded +2.1% since; palladium’s short rebuilt to a flag (−66 → −86).
EnergyTight, never shortTight, never shortA +13.8% pipeline spike — and the crowd sold it
Last week WTI’s crowd printed a record (+111,731) and oil went through $100 in the days after. This week Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea after drone attacks, and October WTI jumped +13.8% to $105.83 (diesel +15.2%, RBOB +6.5%) — yet every energy crowd sold into it: WTI −5,452 (shorts +8,388, rel 100 → 95), RBOB −9,677, diesel −2,659. Since the print WTI −5.2% to $100.30 over three down days as Aramco rerouted crude via ship-to-ship transfers near Hormuz and said half the pipeline would be back within days. Still crowded, still physically tight: the short veto holds. NatGas’s short pressed past −100,000 (rel −75) on a flat tape.
EquitiesSqueeze fuelCoveringThe index shorts were bought back before the Fed — into a falling tape
Last week the shorts pressed into a rising week (Russell record −100, S&P −69, Nasdaq rebuilt to −37). This week all three were covered — Russell +12,944 (−100 → −88), Nasdaq +23,832 (−37 → −13), S&P +50,256 (−69 → −60) — while the indices FELL (Russell −3.0%, Nasdaq −1.9%, S&P −1.1%). That is profit-taking into the FOMC, not a squeeze; the fuel was withdrawn rather than burned. Since the print Nasdaq +2.4%, S&P +0.9%, Russell −0.3%. The VIX short-vol book shrank to rel −17 as VIX rose +9.4% into the Fed, then fell −13.8% since to 14.82.
GrainsUnwind tailUnwind tailMeal set a record; corn froze at the ceiling; SRW went net short
Last week four grain books sat at +100 into a falling tape and a WASDE that beat every estimate. This week meal kept building to a fresh record (+25,422, net +183,111) as it rose +4.5%; corn stopped adding (both legs cut by the same 7,296, net unchanged at the record +414,460); beans and HRW trimmed (rel 94, 91); SRW’s book went net short for the first time in the window (rel 33 → −3). Since the print meal −1.9%, corn −1.5%, beans −1.2%, as Midwest harvest-delay rains met record-crop expectations and fresh China buying. Still the most crowded class on the board.
The biggest positioning shifts
Last print This print, on the same −100 to +100 scale
JPYFX
+86
A record long in two prints: longs +59,160, shorts −50,403 (net +109,563 to +120,359, a 52-week high) while the yen fell −0.7% in the COT week and −1.1% since after a 7–2 BoJ hike. The crowd went from −56 to +100 in two weeks and is offside.
Wheat SRWGrains
−36
Longs −4,708, shorts +3,839 (net −8,547 to −3,674): the book is net short for the first time in the window as SRW fell −2.5% and −2.0% since. No crowd.
Nasdaq-100Equities
+24
Last week’s rebuild reversed: shorts covered +23,832 INTO a −1.9% week, then +2.4% since. Fuel withdrawn before the Fed, not squeezed out.
EURFX
+22
Longs +10,491, shorts −5,132 (net +15,623) as the euro fell −0.7% and −0.5% since. The reload was bought back as the price moved the short’s way.
CopperMetals
−21
The unwind fired: longs −14,303, shorts +2,745 (net −17,048) as copper fell −5.6% in the COT week, then +3.8% since. Last week’s purest tail, a fifth of it spent.
Positioning risk — where the tails are
Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. These are flags for exposure and stops.
Squeeze fuelCrowded shorts still pressing. Long-biased.
NatGas · Lead (LME)
NatGas −75 ⚑, shorts pressed +5,716 past −100,000 on a flat week; lead −100, a fresh 52-wk-low net (as of 11 Sep)
Two crowded shorts still pressing with no scarcity story against them. Storage comfort backs the gas crowd; lead bounced +2.0% since. Fuel, no spark.
Lean Hogs · Palladium
Hogs −69 → −87 (shorts +7,645) into −6.1%; palladium −66 → −86 (shorts +783) into −4.9%
Both shorts pressed back to a flag and were paid in the same week. The fuel is reloaded; hogs kept falling since, palladium bounced +1.3%.
Russell 2000 · S&P 500
Russell −88 ⚑ (covered +12,944 off the record), S&P −60 (+50,256) — covered INTO a falling week
Still the two biggest index shorts, but they are shrinking by choice, not by force. Fuel withdrawn before the Fed; what remains is still the largest equity crowd.
Squeeze firingThe squeeze is in progress: fuel being spent.
Copper (the mirror)
Crowd 100 → 79: longs −14,303, shorts +2,745 into a −5.6% week; +3.8% since
Not a short squeeze but its mirror — last week’s record-long tail unwound a fifth of itself in one print. The remaining crowd (+65,106) is still flagged.
EUR · CAD · Nasdaq-100
EUR −59 → −37, CAD −39 → −21, Nasdaq −37 → −13 — all covered into falling prices
Fuel spent without a squeeze: the shorts were bought back while the price moved their way. No forced buyers left behind in any of the three.
Unwind tailCrowded longs still adding. Do not add; never a short.
JPY
Crowd +14 → +100: longs +59,160, shorts −50,403 (net +120,359, a 52-wk high) into a −0.7% yen; −1.1% since
A record long built in two prints into a falling currency, and the BoJ hike (7–2) did not rescue it. The biggest new unwind risk on the board.
UST 10Y · Ultra 10Y · 2Y
10Y +73,299 to a record (100), Ultra 10Y 100, 2Y +111,508 (67) — into a +21–27bp backup
Real money bought the backup into the first Fed hike since 2023 while cutting the long end. A record duration long adding into a hiking cycle.
Soybean Meal · Corn
Meal +25,422 to a record (100) into +4.5%; corn frozen at its record +414,460 (both legs −7,296)
The most crowded class still sits at the ceiling; meal is still adding. The unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry — never a short.
Tight, never shortPhysically tight: the short veto. Long-biased.
WTI · products
Saudi East-West pipeline shut after drone strikes; October WTI +13.8% — and the crowd trimmed (rel 100 → 95)
The physical world still backs the crowded long; Aramco is rerouting and repairing, full capacity ~6 weeks away. A tail on the long, never a short.
LME Zinc · Aluminium
Zinc 94, alu 75 — both trimmed (−3,519 / −2,480, as of 11 Sep); zinc off its record
Crowded and physically backed by the end-August backwardation. The extremes are tails, not fades.
Cattle
Live cattle +1.7% with the fund net at a fresh 52-wk LOW (+47,696); feeders +2.6%
Scarcity on the other side of the thinnest long crowd in a year — a record-low herd. Sugar leaves this list as its maxed crowd unwinds with the price.
Do not force these
Calling the yen crowd squeeze fuel again
It is the opposite now — a record long (+120,359) built in two prints, offside by about −1.8% since 8-Sep; the risk is an unwind, not a squeeze.
Reading the index covering as a squeeze
Russell, Nasdaq and S&P shorts were bought back into a falling week (−1.1% to −3.0%) — profit-taking before the Fed, not forced buying.
Fading WTI because its crowd trimmed
The crowd sold a +13.8% pipeline spike, but the East-West line is only partly back and shorting a crowded long tested 0 of 7 years.
Why no trades here: a six-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at one- to eight-week holds, and shorting a crowded long was the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). This page displays; newcot (v2) decides.
Positioning against price, same week
How each crowd moved against the price in the same week (Tue 8 Sep → 15 Sep). Confirm means they agreed; diverge means the crowd was offside. Open a row for the read.
| Read | Market | Positioning move this week | Crowd | Price 8→15 Sep | Read | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (yen) | longs +59,160, shorts −50,403 — net +10,796 → +120,359 | LONG +100% ⚑ (was +14%) | −0.7% | Diverge | −1.1% | |
A second straight flip-sized print: net +109,563 to a 52-week-high +120,359 (rel +14 → +100) — the crowd went from −56 to +100 in two weeks — while the yen FELL −0.7% in the COT week (USD/JPY 153.97 → 155.07) and −1.1% since to 156.85. The BoJ hiked to 1.25% on 18-Sep as expected, but on a 7–2 split, and Ueda’s tone disappointed. A crowded long built into a falling currency is the new unwind tail; there is no short left to squeeze. | ||||||
| UST 2Y / 10Y | AM ADDED +111,508 (2Y) and +73,299 (10Y, a record) into the backup | LONG +67% · +100% ⚑ | +27bp / +21bp | Diverge | +8bp / −1bp | |
Last week’s trim reversed: asset managers bought the 2Y and 10Y as yields rose +27bp to 4.67% and +21bp to 5.01% into the FOMC — then the Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4% (12–0, the first hike since 2023) and the 10Y touched 5%; since the print 2Y +8bp to 4.76%, 10Y −1bp. They cut the long end instead (Ultra Bond −118,271, Bond −72,005, 5Y −58,912). A record 10Y long adding into a hiking cycle is the tail. | ||||||
| WTI / RBOB / Diesel (Oct) | WTI shorts +8,388, longs +2,936 · RBOB longs −10,455 · diesel −2,659 | LONG +95% ⚑ · +84% ⚑ · +33% | +13.8% / +6.5% / +15.2% | Diverge | −5.2% / +1.8% / −3.9% | |
Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone attacks and October WTI jumped +13.8% to $105.83, diesel +15.2% — and the crowd sold into it across the barrel (WTI −5,452, RBOB −9,677, diesel −2,659). Since the print WTI −5.2% to $100.30 over three down days as Aramco rerouted crude via Hormuz transfers and began repairs. Windows use the October contracts (CL1!/HO1!/RB1! rolled to November in-window). Crowded, trimming, physically tight — never a short. | ||||||
| Copper | longs CUT −14,303, shorts +2,745 — off the record | LONG +79% ⚑ (was 100%) | −5.6% | Confirm | +3.8% | |
The unwind tail flagged last week fired: net −17,048 to +65,106 (rel 100 → 79) as copper fell −5.6% in the COT week to $6.44 — the week LME stocks had rebuilt from the ~205kt low. Then +3.8% since to $6.69 as metals steadied after the Fed. A fifth of the record crowd left in one print. | ||||||
| Gold / Silver / Palladium | gold both legs cut · silver longs −943 · palladium shorts REBUILT +783 | LONG +83% ⚑ · +35% · SHORT −86% ⚑ | −2.4% / −4.7% / −4.9% | Confirm | +2.1% / +5.2% / +1.3% | |
The metals complex fell into the FOMC and every crowd moved with it: gold net −1,856 (rel 84 → 83) at $4,333, silver rel 39 → 35 at $63.86, palladium’s short rebuilt to a flag (−66 → −86). Since the print all three rebounded (gold +2.1%, silver +5.2%, palladium +1.3%) as buyers absorbed the hike. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 / Nasdaq / S&P | shorts COVERED: Russell +12,944 · Nasdaq +23,832 · S&P +50,256 | SHORT −88% ⚑ · −13% · −60% | −3.0% / −1.9% / −1.1% | Diverge | −0.3% / +2.4% / +0.9% | |
All three index shorts were bought back INTO a falling week — the Russell off its record (rel −100 → −88), Nasdaq’s rebuilt short mostly gone (−37 → −13), the S&P −69 → −60 — before the Fed. That is profit-taking, not a squeeze: the price fell while they covered. Since the print Nasdaq +2.4%, S&P +0.9%, Russell −0.3%. The fuel is being withdrawn; EM funds trimmed −1,394 into a −4.5% week. | ||||||
| EUR / CAD / CHF (dollar shorts) | EUR covered +15,623 (−59 → −37) · CAD +32,922 (−39 → −21) · CHF +997 | SHORT −37% · −21% · −66% | −0.7% / −0.9% / −1.1% | Diverge | −0.5% / −0.5% / −0.4% | |
The dollar shorts were bought back as the currencies fell — the euro to 1.1542, the loonie to 1.391, the franc to 0.8187 — the reverse of a squeeze. Last week’s EUR reload undone in one print. The aggregate spec dollar long fell to +$5.9bn (−$13.5bn), nearly flat, while DXY rose +0.8% and +0.6% since to 100.22. The crowd is selling a rising dollar. | ||||||
| Soybean Meal / Corn / Beans | meal longs +22,148 (a RECORD) · corn legs −7,296 each · beans −15,757 | LONG +100% · +100% · +94% ⚑ | +4.5% / +0.4% / +0.2% | Confirm* | −1.9% / −1.5% / −1.2% | |
Meal set a fresh 52-week-high net (+183,111) as it rose +4.5%; corn froze at its record (net +1 on both legs cut 7,296) on a +0.4% week; beans trimmed (rel 100 → 94) on +0.2%. Since the print meal −1.9%, corn −1.5%, beans −1.2% as Midwest harvest-delay rains met record-crop expectations and fresh China buying. The class is still the most crowded on the board. | ||||||
| Wheat (SRW / HRW) | SRW flipped net short (−8,547) · HRW shorts +4,350 | SHORT −3% · LONG +91% ⚑ | −2.5% / −2.8% | Confirm | −2.0% / −1.6% | |
SRW’s book went net short for the first time in the window (rel 33 → −3) as it fell −2.5% to $7.285 and −2.0% since; HRW’s maxed crowd shrank (rel 100 → 91) as it fell −2.8% and −1.6% since, under its 20-day. Both moving with the price. | ||||||
| NatGas | shorts PRESSED +5,716, longs +2,253 | SHORT −75% ⚑ | +0.1% | Flat | −0.2% | |
Net −3,463 to −100,205 (rel −72 → −75) on a flat week at $2.919 and flat since at $2.912, below its 200-day. The crowd keeps pressing with storage comfort behind it. Crowded fuel, no spark. | ||||||
| Sugar / Cotton | sugar longs CUT −10,397 · cotton longs −4,409 | LONG +94% · +91% ⚑ | −0.9% / −2.1% | Confirm | −3.2% / −3.9% | |
After five weeks at the ceiling sugar’s crowd left (rel 100 → 94) as it eased −0.9% to 17.94c, then −3.2% since to 17.36c, under its 20-day. Cotton’s kept leaving (rel 94 → 91) as it fell −2.1% and −3.9% since to 81.15c, RSI 34. Two crowded longs unwinding with the price. | ||||||
| Coffee / Cocoa | coffee longs −1,823 · cocoa both legs trimmed | LONG +41% · SHORT −41% | −2.6% / +0.2% | Confirm | −1.1% / −10.1% | |
Coffee’s crowd kept leaving (rel 44 → 41) as arabica fell −2.6% and −1.1% since on heavy Brazilian exports. Cocoa was flat in the COT week — then fell −10.1% since to $5,327 on Ivory Coast arrivals +18% and ICE stocks at a two-year high. The glut is on the short crowd’s side: fuel with the physical market against a squeeze. | ||||||
| Cattle / Hogs | cattle longs −1,601 (net a 52-wk LOW) · hogs shorts PRESSED +7,645 | LONG +35% · SHORT −87% ⚑ | +1.7% / −6.1% | Diverge | −2.2% / −1.2% | |
Live cattle rose +1.7% to $220.70 while the fund net fell to a fresh 52-week low (+47,696) — the thinnest long crowd in a year against a record-low herd — then −2.2% since. Hogs’ short pressed back to a flag (rel −69 → −87) as hogs fell −6.1% to $79.08 and −1.2% since. Crowded, and being paid. | ||||||
Since the print: technicalsA secondary timing layer, 15 → 18 Sep. Not the thesis.
| Read | Asset | Now | Trend | RSI 14 | ATR % | TradingView rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Meal | $358.6 | ▲ up | 61 | 2.3% | Buy | |
A fresh record long (net +183,111, +25,422 on the week) as meal rose +4.5% in the COT week to $365.4 — then −1.9% since after a −3.4% Friday. RSI 61, ADX 49, above every SMA, Buy-rated. The crowd is still buying the top of the range. | ||||||
| Corn | $5.275 | ▲ up | 62 | 2.2% | Buy | |
Both legs cut by the same 7,296 contracts — net unchanged at the 52-week-high +414,460 — on a +0.4% COT week to $5.3575, then −1.5% since to $5.275, on its 20-day ($5.26). RSI 62, ADX 47. The crowd stopped adding and did not leave. | ||||||
| Soybeans | $13.035 | ▲ up | 58 | 1.7% | Buy | |
Longs −10,634, shorts +5,123 (rel 100 → 94) on a +0.2% COT week to $13.19, then −1.2% since to $13.035. Midwest harvest-delay rains and fresh China buying held the price. Above every SMA. | ||||||
| Wheat (SRW) | $7.1425 | ▬ flat | 48 | 3.3% | Neutral | |
The book went net short (rel 33 → −3) as SRW fell −2.5% in the COT week to $7.285 and −2.0% since to $7.1425, under its 20-day ($7.39), above the 50-day ($6.93). Neutral. No crowd either way. | ||||||
| Sugar | 17.36c | ▬ flat | 48 | 3.3% | Neutral | |
Longs −10,397 (rel 100 → 94) as sugar eased −0.9% in the COT week to 17.94c, then −3.2% since to 17.36c, under its 20-day (17.96c), above the 50-day. ADX 49. The maxed crowd is leaving with the price. | ||||||
| WTI crude (Oct) | $100.30 | ▲ up | 56 | 4.6% | Buy | |
The crowd sold the spike: net −5,452 (shorts +8,388) as October WTI jumped +13.8% to $105.83 on the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown — then −5.2% since to $100.30 over three down days as Aramco rerouted crude via ship-to-ship transfers near Hormuz and began repairs (half capacity within days, full within ~6 weeks). CL1! rolled to November on Friday ($96.08), so the continuous chart overstates the drop. RSI 56, above every SMA. | ||||||
| Heating oil (Oct) | $5.058 | ▲ up | 62 | 4.2% | Buy | |
The crowd cut −2,659 while October diesel ran +15.2% in the COT week to $5.262 — then −3.9% since. HO1! rolled to November at the 15-Sep open ($4.84). Second week the diesel crowd left and got run over. | ||||||
| Gold | $4,425 | ▬ flat | 50 | 2.5% | Neutral | |
Both legs cut (rel 84 → 83) as gold fell −2.4% in the COT week to $4,333 into the FOMC — then +2.1% since to $4,425 as bargain buyers absorbed the first hike since 2023. RSI 50, under the 20-day ($4,492) and 200-day ($4,554). Crowded, deleveraging slowly. | ||||||
| Silver | $67.15 | ▲ up | 55 | 4.0% | Buy | |
Longs −943 (rel 39 → 35) as silver fell −4.7% to $63.86, then +5.2% since to $67.15, back above its 20-day ($66.81) and under the 200-day ($72.82). Not a crowd. | ||||||
| Copper | $6.692 | ▲ up | 55 | 2.4% | Buy | |
The unwind fired: longs −14,303, shorts +2,745 (rel 100 → 79) as copper fell −5.6% to $6.44 — then +3.8% since to $6.69, back over its 20-day ($6.63), as metals steadied after the Fed. The record crowd is a fifth smaller. | ||||||
| Palladium | $1,319.5 | ▼ down | 48 | 4.3% | Sell | |
The short rebuilt to a flag (rel −66 → −86, shorts +783) as palladium fell −4.9% to $1,303, then +1.3% since. Under its 20-day, Sell-rated. Crowded fuel, being paid. | ||||||
| NatGas | $2.912 | ▲ up | 54 | 3.5% | Buy | |
Shorts +5,716 (rel −72 → −75, net past −100,000) on a flat COT week at $2.919 and flat since, just over the 20- and 50-day, well under the 200-day ($3.21). Crowded fuel, no spark. | ||||||
| Cocoa | $5,327 | ▼ down | 35 | 6.3% | Sell | |
Both legs trimmed (rel −38 → −41) on a flat COT week at $5,923 — then −10.1% since to $5,327 (−7.7% Friday) on Ivory Coast arrivals +18% y/y and ICE stocks at a two-year high. RSI 35, below every SMA but the 200-day. The glut backs the short. | ||||||
| Coffee | $2.805 | ▼ down | 36 | 4.0% | Sell | |
Longs −1,823 (rel 44 → 41) as arabica fell −2.6% to $2.84 and −1.1% since to $2.805 as Brazil’s harvest ends and exports run +51% vs last September. RSI 36, below every SMA. The crowd keeps leaving with the price. | ||||||
| Cotton | 81.15c | ▼ down | 34 | 2.5% | Sell | |
Longs −4,409 (rel 94 → 91) as cotton fell −2.1% to 84.48c and −3.9% since to 81.15c, below its 20-day (87.47c) and 50-day (84.44c). Still crowded, still leaving. | ||||||
| Lean Hogs | $78.10 | ▼ down | 32 | 1.9% | Strong sell | |
Shorts +7,645 (rel −69 → −87) as hogs fell −6.1% to $79.08, then −1.2% since to $78.10, below every SMA, Strong-Sell territory. A crowded short being paid. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 | 2,860 | ▼ down | 35 | 1.2% | Sell | |
Shorts covered +12,944 (rel −100 → −88) into a −3.0% COT week to 2,870 — then −0.3% since to 2,860, below its 20-day (2,941) and 50-day (2,969), RSI 35, as the 2Y hit 4.76%. The crowd took profits; the price kept falling. | ||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | 29,644 | ▲ up | 56 | 1.3% | Buy | |
Shorts covered +23,832 (rel −37 → −13) into a −1.9% COT week — then +2.4% since to 29,644, above its 20- and 50-day, Buy-rated. The reloaded short was bought back before the Fed. | ||||||
| S&P 500 | 7,651 | ▬ flat | 51 | 0.9% | Buy | |
The biggest cover on the board, +50,256 (rel −69 → −60), into a −1.1% COT week to 7,586 — then +0.9% since to 7,651, on its 20-day ($7,659). RSI 51, ADX 12. | ||||||
| VIX | 14.82 | ▼ down | 45 | 10.2% | Sell | |
Leveraged funds bought back +6,766 (rel −25 → −17) as VIX rose +9.4% into the Fed to 17.19 — then −13.8% since to 14.82, below every SMA. The short-vol book is small; the equity shorts under it shrank too. | ||||||
| USD/JPY | 156.85 | ▬ flat | 49 | 0.9% | Neutral | |
The yen crowd hit a record long (+120,359, rel +100) while the yen fell −0.7% in the COT week to 155.07 — then another −1.1% since to 156.85 after a 7–2 BoJ hike to 1.25% and a less-hawkish Ueda. RSI 49, ADX 42, on its 20-day (156.79). A new crowded long, offside. | ||||||
| EUR/USD | 1.1486 | ▼ down | 37 | 0.4% | Sell | |
Shorts covered, longs added (rel −59 → −37) as the euro fell −0.7% to 1.1542 and −0.5% since to 1.1486, below the 20-, 50- and 200-day. RSI 37, Sell-rated. The crowd cut its short as the price did what the short wanted. | ||||||
| USD/CAD | 1.3982 | ▲ up | 60 | 0.4% | Buy | |
Shorts −13,416, longs +19,506 (rel −39 → −21) as the loonie fell −0.9% (USD/CAD 1.391), then 1.398 since, above every SMA. Covering into weakness. | ||||||
| US 2Y / 10Y yield | 4.76% / 5.00% | ▲ up | — | — | – | |
The COT week was the backup — 2Y +27bp to 4.67%, 5Y +27bp, 10Y +21bp to 5.01%, 30Y +12bp — and asset managers bought the 2Y (+111,508) and 10Y (+73,299, a record) into it while cutting the long end (Ultra Bond −118,271, Bond −72,005). The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75–4% on 16-Sep (12–0; 16 of 19 see another hike this year); the 10Y touched 5% and the 2Y is +8bp since at 4.76%. | ||||||
| US Dollar (DXY) | 100.22 | ▲ up | 61 | 0.4% | Buy | |
DXY rose +0.8% in the COT week to 99.61 and +0.6% since to 100.22, above every SMA — while the aggregate spec dollar long fell to +$5.9bn (−$13.5bn), nearly flat, as the yen and euro books were bought. The dollar rallied with the crowd selling it. | ||||||
Every contract
The full data by asset class, numbers first. Positioning to Tuesday 15 Sep 2026, self-pulled from the CFTC and the LME. Open a class, then a row for its read.
CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated, managed money. Price is the same COT week 8→15 Sep. Energy windows use the October contracts (front months rolled in-window).
| Read | Contract | Net | Crowd | Flow (gross legs) | Price 8→15 Sep | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY · a +13.8% pipeline spike that every energy crowd sold into; windows use the October contracts | |||||||
| WTI (NYMEX) | +106,279 | LONG 95% ⚑ | L +2,936 / S +8,388 | +13.8% | −5.2% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — shorts pressed into the spike (net −5,452, rel 100 → 95) as October WTI jumped +13.8% to $105.83 on the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown, then −5.2% since to $100.30 as Aramco rerouted via Hormuz and began repairs. CL1! rolled to November on 18-Sep. Crowded and physically tight — never a short. | |||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +83,171 | LONG 84% ⚑ | L −10,455 / S −778 | +6.5% | +1.8% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — longs cut −10,455 (rel 93 → 84) into a +6.5% week for the October contract to $3.465, then +1.8% since. The crowd left gasoline while it rallied. | |||||||
| NY Harbor ULSD | +12,700 | LONG 33% | L −1,415 / S +1,244 | +15.2% | −3.9% | Crowd long | |
DIVERGE — net −2,659 (rel 40 → 33) as October diesel ran +15.2% to $5.262, the biggest COT-week move on the board, then −3.9% since. Second week the crowd left diesel and diesel ran. | |||||||
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +7,896 | LONG 35% | L +1,830 / S −153 | +11.1% | −4.5% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM↑ — longs +1,830 (rel 27 → 35) as Brent rose +11.1% to $108.75, then −4.5% since to $103.87. A thin book; no crowd. | |||||||
| NatGas | −100,205 | SHORT 75% ⚑ | L +2,253 / S +5,716 | +0.1% | −0.2% | Squeeze fuel | |
FLAT ⚑ — the short pressed past −100,000 (net −3,463, rel −72 → −75) on a flat week at $2.919 and flat since. Storage comfort backs the crowd. Crowded fuel, no spark. | |||||||
| PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · copper’s record long unwound; palladium’s short rebuilt to a flag | |||||||
| Copper (HG) | +65,106 | LONG 79% ⚑ | L −14,303 / S +2,745 | −5.6% | +3.8% | Squeeze firing | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — the unwind fired: net −17,048 (rel 100 → 79) as copper fell −5.6% to $6.44, then +3.8% since to $6.69. Last week’s purest tail, a fifth of it spent in one print. | |||||||
| Gold | +133,116 | LONG 83% ⚑ | L −3,410 / S −1,554 | −2.4% | +2.1% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — both legs cut (net −1,856, rel 84 → 83) as gold fell −2.4% to $4,333 into the Fed, then +2.1% since to $4,425. Crowded, deleveraging slowly, under the 200-day. | |||||||
| Steel HRC | +7,733 | LONG 61% | L +156 / S −101 | — | — | No crowd | |
FLAT — the tariff long re-added (rel 59 → 61). No tradeable price series. | |||||||
| Platinum | +8,972 | LONG 43% | L −463 / S +352 | −4.1% | +1.7% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −815 (rel 47 → 43) as platinum fell −4.1% to $1,777, then +1.7% since. Sub-extreme, no crowd. | |||||||
| Silver | +13,124 | LONG 35% | L −943 / S +319 | −4.7% | +5.2% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −1,262 (rel 39 → 35) as silver fell −4.7% to $63.86, then +5.2% since to $67.15. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Aluminum (COMEX) | −213 | SHORT 35% | L +25 / S −6 | — | — | No crowd | |
A 213-lot book. Rel is noise here. | |||||||
| Palladium | −5,688 | SHORT 86% ⚑ | L −566 / S +783 | −4.9% | +1.3% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — the short rebuilt to a flag (net −1,349, rel −66 → −86) as palladium fell −4.9% to $1,303, then +1.3% since. Crowded fuel, being paid. | |||||||
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS · meal set a record, corn froze at its ceiling, SRW went net short | |||||||
| Soybean Meal | +183,111 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +22,148 / S −3,274 | +4.5% | −1.9% | Unwind tail | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — a fresh record (net +25,422, a 52-week high) as meal rose +4.5% to $365.4, then −1.9% since to $358.6. Maxed and still adding. | |||||||
| Corn | +414,460 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L −7,296 / S −7,297 | +0.4% | −1.5% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
FLAT ⚑ — both legs cut 7,296 (net +1, still the 52-week high) on a +0.4% week to $5.3575, then −1.5% since. The most crowded book stopped adding and did not leave. | |||||||
| Soybeans | +241,501 | LONG 94% ⚑ | L −10,634 / S +5,123 | +0.2% | −1.2% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
FLAT ⚑ — net −15,757 (rel 100 → 94) on a +0.2% week to $13.19, then −1.2% since as harvest-delay rains met China buying. Trimming at the top. | |||||||
| Wheat (KCBT · HRW) | +44,413 | LONG 91% ⚑ | L +87 / S +4,350 | −2.8% | −1.6% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — shorts +4,350 (net −4,263, rel 100 → 91) as HRW fell −2.8% to $7.96 and −1.6% since, under its 20-day. A maxed crowd shrinking with the price. | |||||||
| Soybean Oil | +101,480 | LONG 60% | L +6,278 / S −3,491 | −0.5% | −3.0% | Crowd long | |
FLAT — net +9,769 (rel 55 → 60) on a −0.5% week to 70.35c, then −3.0% since to 68.22c, below its 20- and 50-day. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Wheat (CBOT · SRW) | −3,674 | SHORT 3% | L −4,708 / S +3,839 | −2.5% | −2.0% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −8,547 (rel 33 → −3), the first net short in the window, as SRW fell −2.5% to $7.285 and −2.0% since. No crowd. | |||||||
| SOFTS · sugar left the ceiling; cotton and coffee kept leaving; cocoa’s glut backs the short | |||||||
| Sugar | +225,430 | LONG 94% ⚑ | L −10,397 / S +2,857 | −0.9% | −3.2% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — longs cut (net −13,254, rel 100 → 94) as sugar eased −0.9% to 17.94c, then −3.2% since to 17.36c, under its 20-day. After five weeks at the ceiling the crowd is leaving. | |||||||
| Cotton | +91,935 | LONG 91% ⚑ | L −4,409 / S −977 | −2.1% | −3.9% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −3,432 (rel 94 → 91) as cotton fell −2.1% to 84.48c and −3.9% since to 81.15c, RSI 34. Still crowded, still leaving. | |||||||
| Coffee (Arabica) | +20,661 | LONG 41% | L −1,823 / S −375 | −2.6% | −1.1% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −1,448 (rel 44 → 41) as arabica fell −2.6% to $2.84 and −1.1% since to $2.805 on Brazilian exports +51% vs last September. The crowd keeps leaving with the price. | |||||||
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −9,539 | SHORT 41% | L −1,376 / S −594 | +0.2% | −10.1% | Crowd short | |
FLAT — both legs trimmed (net −782, rel −38 → −41) on a flat week at $5,923, then −10.1% since to $5,327 on Ivory Coast arrivals +18% and two-year-high ICE stocks. The glut backs the short crowd. | |||||||
| LIVESTOCK · the cattle crowd hit a fresh 52-week low; the hog short pressed back to a flag | |||||||
| Live Cattle | +47,696 | LONG 35% | L −1,601 / S −392 | +1.7% | −2.2% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — longs −1,601 (net a fresh 52-week LOW) into a +1.7% week to $220.70, then −2.2% since. The thinnest long crowd in a year against a record-low herd — the physical world is on the long side. | |||||||
| Feeder Cattle | +7,211 | LONG 27% | L −115 / S +122 | +2.6% | −3.1% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — shorts +122 into a +2.6% week (rel 28 → 27), then −3.1% since to $323.50. Same scarcity backdrop. | |||||||
| Lean Hogs | −37,768 | SHORT 87% ⚑ | L −489 / S +7,645 | −6.1% | −1.2% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — shorts pressed (net −8,134, rel −69 → −87) as hogs fell −6.1% to $79.08, then −1.2% since to $78.10. Crowded fuel, being paid. | |||||||
Base metals, London (LME)Investment funds, as of Fri 11 Sep (London week 4→11 Sep). Change is one week against the 4-Sep file.
| Read | Metal | Funds net | Crowd | Flow | Price 4→11 Sep | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc | +59,133 | LONG 94% ⚑ | Δnet −3,519 wk | −1.9% | −0.5% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of Fri 11 Sep. Funds −3,519 to +59,133 (rel 100 → 94) as zinc fell −1.9% in the London week 4→11 Sep to $4,037, then −0.5% since to $4,015. Off the record, still crowded; the end-August backwardation was the physical support. | |||||||
| Aluminium | +147,601 | LONG 75% ⚑ | Δnet −2,480 wk | −0.5% | +0.4% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 11 Sep. Funds −2,480 to +147,601 (rel 76 → 75) as alu eased −0.5% in the London week to $3,277, then +0.4% since to $3,290. Crowded and trimming slowly; the short stays vetoed on tightness. | |||||||
| Nickel | +16,284 | LONG 42% | Δnet +1,129 wk | −2.2% | −1.8% | No crowd | |
DIVERGE — as of 11 Sep. Funds +1,129 (rel 39 → 42) as nickel fell −2.2% in the London week to $16,321, then −1.8% since to $16,024. Sub-extreme, no crowd. | |||||||
| Lead | −25,792 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | Δnet −1,616 wk | −1.2% | +2.0% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 11 Sep. The record short grew to −25,792, a fresh 52-week-low net (rel −100), as lead fell −1.2% in the London week to $1,850 — then +2.0% since to $1,888. Crowded fuel with no scarcity story to light it. | |||||||
CurrenciesLegacy non-commercial, per currency (blue means speculators are short that currency). The USD row is the implied mirror.
| Read | Currency | Pair | Net | Change | Crowd | Pair 8→15 Sep | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPY | USD/JPY | +120,359 | +109,563 | +100% | −0.7% | −1.1% | Unwind tail | |
A record long in two prints: longs +59,160, shorts −50,403 (net from +10,796 to +120,359, a 52-week high, rel +14 → +100) while the yen FELL −0.7% in the COT week (USD/JPY 153.97 → 155.07) — then −1.1% since to 156.85 after the BoJ hiked to 1.25% on a 7–2 vote and Ueda disappointed the hawks. The crowd went from −56 to +100 in two weeks; it is now crowded and offside. RSI 49, ADX 42. | ||||||||
| EUR | EUR/USD | −26,993 | +15,623 | −37% | −0.7% | −0.5% | Covering | |
Last week’s reload reversed: longs +10,491, shorts −5,132 (rel −59 → −37) as the euro fell −0.7% in the COT week to 1.1542 and −0.5% since to 1.1486, below the 20-, 50- and 200-day, RSI 37. The short was bought back as the price moved its way — fuel withdrawn, not burned. | ||||||||
| CAD | USD/CAD | −37,577 | +32,922 | −21% | −0.9% | −0.5% | Covering | |
Shorts −13,416, longs +19,506 (rel −39 → −21) as the loonie fell −0.9% in the COT week (USD/CAD 1.3783 → 1.3913), then −0.5% since to 1.398, RSI 60. The fifth week of covering, now into weakness. | ||||||||
| GBP | GBP/USD | −58,715 | +121 | −56% | −0.5% | −0.6% | Crowd short | |
Both legs cut ~4,200 (net +121, rel −56) as the pound fell −0.5% in the COT week to 1.3476 and −0.6% since to 1.3392, RSI 38, under its 20- and 50-day. An unchanged mid-sized short, being paid. | ||||||||
| CHF | USD/CHF | −28,988 | +997 | −66% | −1.1% | −0.4% | Crowd short | |
Both legs added (L +2,990 / S +1,993, rel −68 → −66) as the franc fell −1.1% (USD/CHF 0.8094 → 0.8187), then −0.4% since to 0.8219. Just under the flag. | ||||||||
| AUD | AUD/USD | −38,906 | −4,036 | −46% | −1.2% | −0.1% | Crowd short | |
Longs −6,220, shorts −2,184 (net −4,036, rel −41 → −46) as the aussie fell −1.2% to 0.7131, then flat since at 0.7122, still above the 50- and 200-day. A mid-sized short, drifting wider. | ||||||||
| NZD | NZD/USD | +10,518 | +4,286 | +100% | −1.6% | −0.6% | Crowd long | |
Longs +6,749, shorts +2,463 (net +4,286 to +10,518, a fresh 52-week high) INTO a −1.6% kiwi week to 0.5758, then −0.6% since to 0.5723, RSI 32, below every SMA. A small book at its own extreme, offside. | ||||||||
| MXN | USD/MXN | +87,782 | −6,950 | +80% | −1.4% | −0.5% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
Both legs slashed (L −35,191 / S −28,241, net −6,950, rel 87 → 80) as the peso fell −1.4% (USD/MXN 16.91 → 17.15), then −0.5% since to 17.22. The one big net-long currency book deleveraging hard. | ||||||||
| USD | DXY basket | +$5.9bn | −$13.5bn | — | +0.8% | +0.6% | No crowd | |
The aggregate spec dollar long fell to +$5.9bn (−$13.5bn) — the yen (+$8.8bn), euro and loonie books all bought — while DXY rose +0.8% in the COT week to 99.61 and +0.6% since to 100.22, above every SMA. The crowd is nearly flat dollars into a rising dollar. | ||||||||
Rates, equities and VIXTFF. Rates through asset managers (real money); equities and VIX through leveraged funds.
Rates, asset managers
| Read | Contract | AM net | Crowd | Yield change, week | Since | Now | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y | +2,635k | 100% | +21 bp | −1 bp | 5.00% | Unwind tail | |
A fresh RECORD: AM +73,299 (rel 98 → 100) as the 10Y backed up +21bp in the COT week to 5.01% — then the Fed hiked to 3.75–4% and the 10Y touched 5%; −1bp since. Last week’s trim reversed; the crowd is buying the backup again. | |||||||
| Ultra 10Y | +743k | 100% | +21 bp | −1 bp | — | Unwind tail | |
AM +23,221 to a 52-week high (rel 97 → 100). Mirrors the 10Y. | |||||||
| UST Bond | +461k | 77% | +12 bp | −4 bp | 5.33% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM cut −72,005 (rel 89 → 77) as the 30Y rose +12bp to 5.37%, then −4bp since to 5.33%. The long end is where the crowd is leaving. | |||||||
| Ultra Bond | +907k | 76% | +12 bp | −4 bp | — | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM −118,271 (rel 86 → 76), the biggest cut on the curve. Mirrors the 30Y. | |||||||
| UST 5Y | +2,788k | 73% | +27 bp | +3 bp | 4.86% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM −58,912 (rel 74 → 73) as the belly backed up +27bp to 4.84%, then +3bp since to 4.86%. Crowded, trimming with the price. | |||||||
| UST 2Y | +1,733k | 67% | +27 bp | +8 bp | 4.76% | Crowd long | |
The biggest add on the curve: AM +111,508 (rel 62 → 67) INTO a +27bp week to 4.67% — then +8bp since to 4.76% as the Fed hiked (12–0) and 16 of 19 officials pencilled in another hike this year. Building straight into the hiking cycle. | |||||||
Equity indices, leveraged funds
| Read | Index | Lev net | Change | Crowd | Price, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | −97k | +13k | −88% | −3.0% | −0.3% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
Covered +12,944 off the record (net −97,203, rel −100 → −88) INTO a −3.0% COT week to 2,870 — then −0.3% since to 2,860, RSI 35, below its 20- and 50-day. Still the most crowded equity short; the crowd banked gains rather than being forced out. | |||||||
| S&P 500 | −312k | +50k | −60% | −1.1% | +0.9% | Covering | |
The biggest cover on the board, +50,256 (rel −69 → −60), INTO a −1.1% COT week to 7,586, then +0.9% since to 7,651. Profit-taking before the Fed, not a squeeze. | |||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | −13k | +24k | −13% | −1.9% | +2.4% | Covering | |
Last week’s rebuild reversed: +23,832 (rel −37 → −13) INTO a −1.9% COT week to 28,938, then +2.4% since to 29,644. The reloaded fuel was withdrawn. | |||||||
| MSCI EM | +43k | −1k | 25% | −4.5% | +1.9% | Crowd long | |
Funds −1,394 (rel 26 → 25) as EM fell −4.5% to 65.76, then +1.9% since to 67.03. The least-crowded equity long, barely moving. | |||||||
| Dow (DJIA) | −2k | +2k | −6% | −1.3% | −0.8% | No crowd | |
Funds +1,875 (rel −13 → −6) on a −1.3% Dow week (52,098; −0.8% since). No crowd. | |||||||
Volatility, VIX
| Read | Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Crowd | VIX change, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | −16.5k | +62.8k | −17% | +9.4% | −13.8% | Crowd short | |
Leveraged funds bought back +6,766 (net −16,504, rel −25 → −17) as VIX rose +9.4% in the COT week to 17.19 into the FOMC, then −13.8% since to 14.82 once the 25bp hike was delivered. Dealers hold +62,801. A small and shrinking short-vol book; the index shorts underneath it shrank too — Russell −100 → −88, S&P −69 → −60, Nasdaq −37 → −13 — all covered into a falling week. | |||||||