The yen long unwound as fast as it was built
Longs −45,677: net +120,359 → +71,982 (rel 100 → 60) as the yen fell −1.5% to 157.38. Still net long, still offside; Tokyo repeated its July intervention stance.
What changed
How the conclusions moved since the 15-Sep print. Open a card for the why.
FX · the yenUnwind tailSqueeze firingThe record long’s unwind tail fired in one print
Last week the yen crowd hit a record long (+120,359, rel 100) built in two prints into a falling currency — flagged as the biggest new unwind risk on the board. This week a third of it left: longs −45,677, net −48,377 to +71,982 (rel 60), as the yen fell another −1.5% to 157.38. Tokyo repeated its July joint-intervention stance; the yen sat flat since at 157.28. The crowd is still net long and still offside.
FX · the dollarCoveringCrowd shortThe dollar shorts came back: euro and pound pressed to flags
Last week the euro and loonie shorts were covered into falling currencies and the spec dollar long shrank to +$5.9bn. This week it rebuilt to +$18.3bn: the euro short reloaded to a flag (−37 → −72), the pound pressed to −78, the loonie to −30, and the kiwi went from a record long to net short (+100 → −17). DXY +0.9% and a two-month high since. Crowd and price moved together.
EquitiesCoveringSqueeze fuelThe index shorts were pressed back — into a Nasdaq record
Last week the shorts were covered into a falling tape before the Fed. This week they were pressed back into a rally: S&P −63,785 (−60 → −72), Nasdaq −22,618 (−13 → −35), Russell −10,779 (−88 → −98) as the Nasdaq-100 rose +6.2% to its first record since June and the S&P closed 0.4% under its own. Offside crowded shorts are fuel. Since the print Russell −1.8% as the 10Y hit 5.17%.
Metals · copperSqueeze firingTight, never shortThe unwind reversed: copper rebuilt its record on mine disasters
Last week a fifth of the record copper long left into a −5.6% week. This week it came straight back — longs +12,717, shorts −4,699, net +82,522, a new 52-week high (rel 100) — as copper rose +6.1% and COMEX set an all-time $6.83/lb on 22-Sep. The Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula disasters have removed real supply, so the crowd now sits on physical scarcity: a tail on the long, never a short.
EnergyTight, never shortTight, never shortThe pipeline restarted, crude fell 10%, and the crowd trimmed with it
Last week the crowd sold a +13.8% spike after the Saudi East-West pipeline shut. This week Saudi Arabia restarted it (22-Sep, low rate) and Iran signalled a possible Hormuz reopening; November WTI fell −10.2% to $90.52 and Brent closed under $100. WTI’s crowd trimmed (rel 95 → 91), gasoline’s added to 97. The natgas short, pressed past −100,000 last week, covered −32,457 and gas ran +7.8% since.
GrainsUnwind tailUnwind tailBeans joined meal at a record; corn’s ceiling crowd started to leave
Last week meal set a record and corn froze at its ceiling. This week soybeans printed a fresh 52-week-high net (+265,159, +23,658) near a three-year price high on Chinese buying, meal set another record (+191,087), and corn’s longs finally left (−12,272, rel 97). Since the print beans −0.5%, corn −1.6% as the harvest ran ahead of average and the US-China summit brought no new purchase pledges.
The biggest positioning shifts
Last print This print, on the same −100 to +100 scale
NZDFX
−117
From a record long to net short in one print: longs −11,288, shorts +10,610 (net −21,898) as the kiwi fell −0.6% and −1.1% since.
JPYFX
−40
The record long lost a third: longs −45,677 (net −48,377) as the yen fell −1.5%, flat since. The tail fired; the crowd is still net long.
EURFX
−35
Shorts +37,049 (net −25,341) as the euro fell −0.8% and −0.5% since to a two-month low. The short reloaded to a flag.
CocoaSofts
−30
Longs −5,145, shorts +1,722 (net −6,867) as cocoa fell −8.8%, then +4.0% since. Pressed to a flag.
NatGasEnergy
+26
Shorts −32,457 (net +34,658) as gas rose +1.6% and +7.8% since. The crowded short fired.
Positioning risk — where the tails are
Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. These are flags for exposure and stops.
Squeeze fuelCrowded shorts still pressing. Long-biased.
S&P 500 · Russell 2000 · Nasdaq
S&P −60 → −72 ⚑ (−63,785), Russell −88 → −98 ⚑, Nasdaq −13 → −35 — all pressed INTO a +0.7% to +6.2% week
Crowded shorts pressed into a Nasdaq record, offside for two weeks. The biggest fuel on the board; Russell’s −1.8% since is the only relief the crowd got.
Lean Hogs · Palladium · Lead
Hogs −87 → −98 ⚑ (shorts +7,737), palladium −86 → −91 ⚑, lead −98 ⚑ (as of 18 Sep)
Three crowded shorts near their extremes. Hogs and palladium are still being paid; lead covered a little into a +2.0% week.
Cocoa
Rel −41 → −71 ⚑: shorts +1,722, longs −5,145 into a −8.8% week; +4.0% since
A fresh crowded short on a two-year-high ICE stock pile — but the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop is seen −20%. Fuel with a supply story ahead.
Squeeze firingThe squeeze is in progress: fuel being spent.
JPY (the mirror)
Rel 100 → 60: longs −45,677 (net −48,377) as the yen fell −1.5%; flat since
Not a short squeeze but its mirror — last week’s record-long tail unwound a third of itself. The remaining +71,982 is still offside.
NatGas
Rel −75 → −49: shorts −32,457 into a +1.6% week; +7.8% since to $3.196
The crowded short that passed −100,000 last week fired. A mid-sized short remains behind a price back above its 200-day.
Unwind tailCrowded longs still adding. Do not add; never a short.
Soybeans · Soybean Meal
Beans +23,658 to a record (100), meal +7,976 to a record (100); corn 97 ⚑
The most crowded grain books are still adding near a three-year high on China buying. The unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry — never a short.
RBOB
Rel 84 → 97 ⚑: longs +12,408 INTO a −0.7% week as crude fell −10%
The one energy crowd that bought the pipeline restart — near-maxed and offside.
UST 10Y · Ultra 10Y · 2Y
10Y 96 ⚑ (−103,596), Ultra 10Y 98 ⚑, 2Y +37,354 (68); 10Y 5.17% since, highest since 2007
The record duration long only trimmed and the front end kept building, as yields broke to 2007 highs after the print.
Tight, never shortPhysically tight: the short veto. Long-biased.
Copper
Rel 79 → 100 ⚑: longs +12,717, shorts −4,699; COMEX record $6.83/lb on 22-Sep
The Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula disasters are real supply losses. A maxed crowd on real scarcity: a tail on the long, never a short.
WTI · products
WTI 91 ⚑ trimmed (−4,451) as November crude fell −10.2% on the East-West pipeline restart
The pipeline is pumping at a low rate and the Iran war is unresolved. The crowd is still flagged; the short veto holds.
Cattle · LME Zinc · Aluminium
Cattle long at a one-year low vs a record-low herd; zinc 86 ⚑, alu 73 ⚑ trimming (as of 18 Sep)
Scarcity on the other side of thin or trimming crowds. The extremes are tails, not fades.
Do not force these
Calling the yen unwind finished
The crowd is still +71,982 net long (rel 60) and the yen is still falling — a third of the tail has fired, not all of it.
Reading the oil drop as the end of the tight story
The pipeline is back at a low rate and the war is unresolved; WTI’s crowd is still flagged, and shorting a crowded, tight long tested 0 of 7 years.
Treating the index shorts as a bearish signal
Funds pressed into a Nasdaq record; offside crowded shorts are squeeze fuel, and the price has not agreed with them for two weeks.
Why no trades here: a six-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at one- to eight-week holds, and shorting a crowded long was the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). This page displays; newcot (v2) decides.
Positioning against price, same week
How each crowd moved against the price in the same week (Tue 15 Sep → 22 Sep). Confirm means they agreed; diverge means the crowd was offside. Open a row for the read.
| Read | Market | Positioning move this week | Crowd | Price 15→22 Sep | Read | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (yen) | longs CUT −45,677, shorts +2,700 — net +120,359 → +71,982 | LONG +60% (was +100% ⚑) | −1.5% | Confirm | +0.1% | |
Last week’s tail fired: a third of the record long left in one print (rel 100 → 60) as the yen fell −1.5% in the COT week (USD/JPY 155.07 → 157.38), then flat since at 157.28. The crowd built +109,563 in two prints and sold −48,377 in the next. Tokyo said it stands by July’s joint intervention with Washington; the crowd is still net long and still offside. | ||||||
| EUR / GBP / NZD (dollar shorts) | EUR shorts +37,049 · GBP longs −14,876 · NZD from record long to net short | SHORT −72% ⚑ · −78% ⚑ · −17% | −0.8% / −1.0% / −0.6% | Confirm | −0.5% / −0.8% / −1.1% | |
The dollar crowd came back in one print: the euro short reloaded to a flag (rel −37 → −72), the pound short pressed to −78, and the kiwi went from +100 to −17 — all as the currencies fell. The aggregate spec dollar long rebuilt to +$18.3bn (+$12.5bn); DXY +0.9% to 100.54 and +0.5% since to a two-month high. Crowd and price moving together. | ||||||
| S&P / Nasdaq / Russell | shorts PRESSED: S&P −63,785 · Nasdaq −22,618 · Russell −10,779 | SHORT −72% ⚑ · −35% · −98% ⚑ | +2.4% / +6.2% / +0.7% | Diverge | −0.3% / −0.4% / −1.8% | |
Last week the index shorts were covered into a falling tape; this week they were pressed back INTO a rally — the Nasdaq-100 +6.2% to its first record since June on a chip rally and lower oil, the S&P to 0.4% under its record. The S&P short is back at a flag and the Russell at −98. Since the print Russell −1.8%, S&P −0.3%, Nasdaq −0.4% as the 10Y hit 5.17%. Crowded shorts, offside: fuel. | ||||||
| Copper | longs +12,717, shorts −4,699 — back to the RECORD | LONG +100% ⚑ (was +79%) | +6.1% | Confirm | −1.0% | |
Last week the record long unwound a fifth of itself; this week it rebuilt all of it and more (net +17,416 to +82,522, a 52-week high) as copper rose +6.1% to $6.84 and COMEX set an all-time $6.83/lb on 22-Sep. Mine disasters at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula have taken hundreds of thousands of tonnes out of supply. Since the print −1.0%. Crowded, but the scarcity is real: a tail on the long, never a short. | ||||||
| WTI / Brent / RBOB | WTI shorts +5,745 · Brent longs −2,683 · RBOB longs +12,408 | LONG +91% ⚑ · +22% · +97% ⚑ | −10.2% / −8.7% / −0.7% | Confirm | +2.1% / +5.1% / −1.1% | |
Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline on 22-Sep and Iran hinted at reopening Hormuz; November WTI fell −10.2% to $90.52 over five sessions and Brent closed under $100. The WTI and Brent crowds trimmed with it (rel 95 → 91, 35 → 22) — but gasoline’s bought +12,408 into the drop, rel 97. Since the print WTI +2.1%, Brent +5.1%. The pipeline is pumping at a low rate; the war keeps the barrel physically tight. | ||||||
| NatGas | shorts COVERED −32,457, longs +2,201 | SHORT −49% (was −75% ⚑) | +1.6% | Confirm | +7.8% | |
The crowded short that pressed past −100,000 last week lost a third of itself (net +34,658 to −65,547, rel −75 → −49) on a +1.6% week to $2.965 — then gas ran +7.8% since to $3.196, back over its 200-day. The squeeze fired, and there is still a mid-sized short left behind. | ||||||
| UST 10Y / 2Y | AM CUT −103,596 (10Y) · ADDED +37,354 (2Y) | LONG +96% ⚑ · +68% | −5bp / +8bp | Diverge | +21bp / +11bp | |
A pause week in yields (10Y −5bp to 4.96%, 2Y +8bp to 4.75%) and the record 10Y crowd trimmed while the 2Y kept building. Then the backup resumed: since the print the 10Y +21bp to 5.17%, the highest since June 2007, and the 30Y +20bp to 5.49%, highest since 2004. Still the most crowded class on the board. | ||||||
| Soybeans / Meal / Corn | beans +23,658 to a RECORD · meal +7,976 (RECORD) · corn longs −12,272 | LONG +100% ⚑ · +100% ⚑ · +97% ⚑ | +0.5% / +1.5% / +0.2% | Confirm* | −0.5% / +0.1% / −1.6% | |
Beans and meal both printed fresh 52-week-high nets (+265,159, +191,087) as soybeans held near a three-year high on Chinese buying — China is past halfway on its 25Mt commitment. Corn’s ceiling crowd started to leave (rel 100 → 97). Since the print beans −0.5%, meal flat, corn −1.6% as harvest ran ahead of average and the summit brought no new purchase pledges. | ||||||
| Cocoa | longs −5,145, shorts +1,722 — pressed to a flag | SHORT −71% ⚑ (was −41%) | −8.8% | Confirm | +4.0% | |
The short crowd pressed hard (net −6,867, rel −41 → −71) as cocoa fell −8.8% to $5,402, its lowest since late July, with ICE stocks at a two-year high and Ivory Coast shipments +18%. Then +4.0% since to $5,619. The crowd is now flagged against a 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop seen −20%: crowded fuel. | ||||||
| Gold / Silver / Palladium | gold longs −6,695 · silver both legs trimmed · palladium shorts +73 | LONG +88% ⚑ · +38% · SHORT −91% ⚑ | +1.0% / +4.2% / +0.3% | Diverge | −1.3% / −2.6% / −2.3% | |
Gold’s crowd kept deleveraging (net −5,727) into a +1.0% week — its rel rose only because last year’s high rolled out of the window. Silver +4.2% with no crowd; palladium’s short pressed to −91. Since the print all three fell (−1.3% / −2.6% / −2.3%) as real yields hit 2007 highs. | ||||||
| Sugar / Cotton / Coffee | sugar longs −7,444 · cotton −15,373 · coffee −2,091 | LONG +91% ⚑ · +75% ⚑ · +32% | −2.0% / −1.9% / −4.0% | Confirm | −0.5% / −0.2% / +2.3% | |
Three long crowds leaving with the price: sugar trimming off the ceiling (rel 91), cotton the biggest exit (91 → 75), coffee down to 32. Since the print sugar −0.5%, cotton flat, coffee +2.3%. | ||||||
| Hogs / Cattle | hogs shorts PRESSED +7,737 · cattle shorts −1,810 | SHORT −98% ⚑ · LONG +36% | +0.3% / −0.9% | Flat | −1.3% / 0.0% | |
The hog short pressed almost to its extreme (rel −87 → −98) on a flat week for October hogs; December sits near $69, so the curve is on the crowd’s side. Cattle shorts covered into a small dip; the long crowd stays the thinnest in a year against a record-low herd. Windows use the October contracts (HE1!/LE1! rolled in-window). | ||||||
Since the print: technicalsA secondary timing layer, 22 → 25 Sep. Not the thesis.
| Read | Asset | Now | Trend | RSI 14 | ATR % | TradingView rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | $6.766 | ▲ up | 56 | 2.2% | Buy | |
The record long is back (net +82,522, +17,416 on the week) as copper rose +6.1% in the COT week to $6.84 and COMEX hit an all-time $6.83/lb on 22-Sep after the Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula disasters — then −1.0% since to $6.77, above every SMA. Maxed on real scarcity. | ||||||
| Soybeans | $13.19 | ▲ up | 60 | 1.6% | Buy | |
A fresh record long (+265,159) on a +0.5% COT week to $13.255, near a three-year high on China buying — then −0.5% since as harvest hit 12%, ahead of average. Above every SMA, ADX 34. | ||||||
| Soybean Meal | $371.0 | ▲ up | 67 | 2.2% | Buy | |
A fresh record (+191,087) as meal rose +1.5% to $370.7, flat since. RSI 67, ADX 49, above every SMA. The crowd is still buying the top of the range. | ||||||
| Corn | $5.2825 | ▲ up | 57 | 2.1% | Buy | |
Longs −12,272 (rel 100 → 97) on a +0.2% COT week to $5.3675, then −1.6% since as harvest ran ahead of the five-year pace. Just under its 20-day, ADX 44. | ||||||
| Wheat (SRW) | $7.0325 | ▬ flat | 45 | 3.1% | Sell | |
A small short building (rel −3 → −11) as SRW fell −1.5% in the COT week and −2.0% since, under its 20-day ($7.37), just over the 50-day ($6.99). No crowd. | ||||||
| Sugar | 17.50c | ▬ flat | 50 | 3.1% | Neutral | |
Longs −7,444 (rel 94 → 91) as sugar fell −2.0% to 17.59c, then −0.5% since, under its 20-day (17.94c), above the 50-day. ADX 38. The maxed crowd is leaving slowly. | ||||||
| WTI crude (Nov) | $92.41 | ▬ flat | 50 | 4.9% | Buy | |
November WTI fell −10.2% in the COT week to $90.52 — five straight down days — as Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and Iran signalled a possible Hormuz reopening; the crowd trimmed with it (net −4,451, rel 95 → 91). Then +2.1% since to $92.41, under the 20-day ($94.72), above the 50- and 200-day. CL1! rolled to November on 18-Sep. | ||||||
| RBOB (Nov) | $3.1875 | ▬ flat | 50 | 4.1% | Neutral | |
The one energy crowd that bought: longs +12,408 (rel 84 → 97) INTO a −0.7% week, then −1.1% since. Near-maxed and offside. | ||||||
| NatGas | $3.196 | ▲ up | 65 | 4.1% | Buy | |
The squeeze fired: shorts −32,457 (rel −75 → −49) as gas rose +1.6% to $2.965 — then +7.8% since to $3.196, back over its 200-day ($3.16). RSI 65, Buy-rated. | ||||||
| Gold | $4,321 | ▼ down | 43 | 2.3% | Sell | |
Longs −6,695 into a +1.0% COT week to $4,376, then −1.3% since to $4,321 as yields hit 2007 highs. Under the 20-day ($4,407) and 200-day ($4,557), Sell-rated. Crowded, deleveraging. | ||||||
| Silver | $64.80 | ▬ flat | 47 | 3.9% | Sell | |
Both legs trimmed (rel 35 → 38) as silver rose +4.2% to $66.53, then −2.6% since to $64.80, under its 20-day. Not a crowd. | ||||||
| Palladium | $1,276 | ▼ down | 43 | 4.0% | Sell | |
The short pressed to −91 on a flat COT week at $1,306, then −2.3% since to $1,276, under every SMA, Sell-rated. Crowded fuel, still being paid. | ||||||
| Cocoa | $5,619 | ▼ down | 45 | 5.7% | Sell | |
The short pressed to a flag (rel −41 → −71) as cocoa fell −8.8% to $5,402, its lowest since late July, on two-year-high ICE stocks — then +4.0% since to $5,619, under the 20- and 50-day. Crowded fuel with a smaller 2026/27 crop ahead. | ||||||
| Coffee | $2.786 | ▼ down | 39 | 3.8% | Sell | |
Longs −2,091, shorts +2,764 (rel 41 → 32) as arabica fell −4.0% to $2.723, then +2.3% since. RSI 39, below every SMA. The crowd keeps leaving. | ||||||
| Cotton | 82.71c | ▼ down | 42 | 2.4% | Sell | |
Longs −15,373 (rel 91 → 75) as cotton fell −1.9% to 82.87c, flat since, under its 20-day (85.88c) and 50-day (84.65c). The biggest softs exit of the week. | ||||||
| Lean Hogs (Oct) | $78.23 | ▼ down | 36 | 1.8% | Sell | |
Shorts +7,737 (rel −87 → −98) on a flat October week at $79.28, then −1.3% since, under every SMA. HE1! rolled to December (~$69) on 21-Sep. A crowded short near its extreme. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 | 2,838 | ▼ down | 35 | 1.1% | Sell | |
Shorts pressed −10,779 (rel −88 → −98) into a +0.7% COT week to 2,890 — then −1.8% since to 2,838, under its 20-day (2,903) and 50-day (2,958), RSI 35, as the 10Y hit 5.17%. | ||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | 30,608 | ▲ up | 65 | 1.3% | Buy | |
Shorts rebuilt −22,618 (rel −13 → −35) into a +6.2% COT week to a record 30,732 on a chip rally — then −0.4% since. Above every SMA, Buy-rated. Offside fuel. | ||||||
| S&P 500 | 7,743 | ▲ up | 57 | 0.9% | Buy | |
The biggest press on the board, −63,785 (rel −60 → −72), into a +2.4% COT week to 7,765, 0.4% under the record — then −0.3% since, above its 20-day ($7,672). ADX 10. | ||||||
| VIX | 14.88 | ▼ down | 46 | 9.2% | Sell | |
Leveraged funds bought back +1,489 (rel −17 → −16) as VIX fell −17.3% to 14.22, then +4.6% since to 14.88, under every SMA. A small short-vol book. | ||||||
| USD/JPY | 157.28 | ▬ flat | 50 | 0.8% | Sell | |
The record yen long lost −48,377 (rel 100 → 60) as the yen fell −1.5% in the COT week to 157.38 — then flat since at 157.28, near two-week yen lows, with Tokyo repeating its July joint-intervention stance. ADX 32. | ||||||
| EUR/USD | 1.1390 | ▼ down | 29 | 0.4% | Sell | |
The short reloaded to a flag (rel −37 → −72) as the euro fell −0.8% to 1.1446 and −0.5% since to 1.1390, a two-month low, below every SMA. RSI 29, oversold. | ||||||
| GBP/USD | 1.3243 | ▼ down | 29 | 0.5% | Sell | |
Shorts pressed to a flag (rel −56 → −78) as the pound fell −1.0% to 1.3344 and −0.8% since to 1.3243, below every SMA. RSI 29. | ||||||
| USD/CAD | 1.4138 | ▲ up | 72 | 0.4% | Buy | |
Shorts +27,713 (rel −21 → −30) as the loonie fell −1.0% (USD/CAD 1.4057), then 1.4138 since, above every SMA, RSI 72. Five weeks of covering reversed. | ||||||
| US 2Y / 10Y yield | 4.86% / 5.17% | ▲ up | — | — | – | |
The COT week was a pause — 2Y +8bp to 4.75%, 10Y −5bp to 4.96%, 30Y −7bp — and asset managers trimmed the record 10Y long (−103,596) while adding the 2Y (+37,354). Then the backup resumed: since the print 2Y +11bp to 4.86%, 10Y +21bp to 5.17% (highest since June 2007), 30Y +20bp to 5.49% (highest since 2004). | ||||||
| US Dollar (DXY) | 101.03 | ▲ up | 68 | 0.4% | Buy | |
DXY rose +0.9% in the COT week to 100.54 and +0.5% since to 101.03, a two-month high on Thursday, above every SMA — and the aggregate spec dollar long rebuilt to +$18.3bn (+$12.5bn) as the yen, euro, pound and kiwi books were sold. The crowd and the dollar moved together. | ||||||
Every contract
The full data by asset class, numbers first. Positioning to Tuesday 22 Sep 2026, self-pulled from the CFTC and the LME. Open a class, then a row for its read.
CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated, managed money. Price is the same COT week 15→22 Sep. WTI uses the November contract and livestock the October contracts across both windows (the continuous charts rolled in-window).
| Read | Contract | Net | Crowd | Flow (gross legs) | Price 15→22 Sep | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY · the Saudi pipeline restart took −10% off crude; gasoline’s crowd bought, gas shorts covered | |||||||
| WTI (NYMEX) | +101,828 | LONG 91% ⚑ | L +1,294 / S +5,745 | −10.2% | +2.1% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — shorts +5,745 (net −4,451, rel 95 → 91) as November WTI fell −10.2% to $90.52 on the East-West pipeline restart, then +2.1% since to $92.41. CL1! rolled to November on 18-Sep; both windows use November. Crowded and still physically tight. | |||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +96,038 | LONG 97% ⚑ | L +12,408 / S −459 | −0.7% | −1.1% | Unwind tail | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — longs +12,408 (rel 84 → 97) INTO a −0.7% week for November gasoline at $3.222, then −1.1% since. A near-maxed crowd still adding, offside. | |||||||
| NY Harbor ULSD | +9,437 | LONG 24% | L −85 / S +3,178 | −4.9% | −6.3% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — shorts +3,178 (rel 33 → 24) as November diesel fell −4.9% to $4.762, then −6.3% since to $4.462. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +5,008 | LONG 22% | L −2,683 / S +205 | −8.7% | +5.1% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM↓ — longs −2,683 (rel 35 → 22) as Brent fell −8.7% to $99.25, then +5.1% since to $104.32. A thin book; no crowd. | |||||||
| NatGas | −65,547 | SHORT 49% | L +2,201 / S −32,457 | +1.6% | +7.8% | Squeeze firing | |
CONFIRM↑ (covering) — the squeeze fired: shorts −32,457 (net +34,658, rel −75 → −49) as gas rose +1.6% to $2.965, then +7.8% since to $3.196, back above its 200-day. | |||||||
| PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · copper rebuilt its record on mine disasters; gold kept deleveraging | |||||||
| Copper (HG) | +82,522 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +12,717 / S −4,699 | +6.1% | −1.0% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — back to a 52-week-high net (+17,416, rel 79 → 100) as copper rose +6.1% to $6.84 and COMEX set a record $6.83/lb on 22-Sep on the Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula disasters; −1.0% since. Crowded on real scarcity. | |||||||
| Gold | +127,389 | LONG 88% ⚑ | L −6,695 / S −968 | +1.0% | −1.3% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — longs −6,695 (net −5,727; rel 83 → 88 as last year’s high rolled off) into a +1.0% week to $4,376, then −1.3% since to $4,321. Crowded, deleveraging. | |||||||
| Steel HRC | +7,381 | LONG 59% | L +12 / S +364 | — | — | No crowd | |
FLAT — rel 61 → 59. No tradeable price series. | |||||||
| Platinum | +9,928 | LONG 47% | L +1,486 / S +530 | +2.7% | −2.6% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↑ — net +956 (rel 43 → 47) as platinum rose +2.7% to $1,826, then −2.6% since. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Silver | +13,309 | LONG 38% | L −902 / S −1,087 | +4.2% | −2.6% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↑ — both legs trimmed (net +185, rel 35 → 38) as silver rose +4.2% to $66.53, then −2.6% since to $64.80. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Aluminum (COMEX) | −143 | SHORT 23% | L +10 / S −60 | — | — | No crowd | |
A 143-lot book. Rel is noise here. | |||||||
| Palladium | −6,006 | SHORT 91% ⚑ | L −245 / S +73 | +0.3% | −2.3% | Squeeze fuel | |
FLAT ⚑ — net −318 (rel −86 → −91) on a flat week at $1,306, then −2.3% since to $1,276. Crowded fuel, still being paid. | |||||||
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS · beans and meal printed records on China buying; corn’s ceiling crowd started to leave | |||||||
| Soybeans | +265,159 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +18,161 / S −5,497 | +0.5% | −0.5% | Unwind tail | |
FLAT ⚑ — a fresh record (net +23,658, rel 94 → 100) on a +0.5% week to $13.255, near a three-year high on China buying, then −0.5% since as harvest hit 12%. Maxed and adding. | |||||||
| Soybean Meal | +191,087 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +7,495 / S −481 | +1.5% | +0.1% | Unwind tail | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — another record (net +7,976) as meal rose +1.5% to $370.7, flat since. RSI 67, ADX 49. Maxed and still adding. | |||||||
| Corn | +404,097 | LONG 97% ⚑ | L −12,272 / S −1,909 | +0.2% | −1.6% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
FLAT ⚑ — longs −12,272 (rel 100 → 97) on a +0.2% week to $5.3675, then −1.6% since as harvest ran ahead of average. The ceiling crowd started to leave. | |||||||
| Wheat (KCBT · HRW) | +40,635 | LONG 83% ⚑ | L −2,115 / S +1,663 | −1.9% | −2.5% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −3,778 (rel 91 → 83) as HRW fell −1.9% to $7.81 and −2.5% since to $7.62. Shrinking with the price. | |||||||
| Soybean Oil | +92,137 | LONG 55% | L −6,601 / S +2,742 | −3.5% | −0.1% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −9,343 (rel 60 → 55) as bean oil fell −3.5% to 67.92c with crude, flat since. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Wheat (CBOT · SRW) | −12,016 | SHORT 11% | L −6,997 / S +1,345 | −1.5% | −2.0% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −8,342 (rel −3 → −11) as SRW fell −1.5% to $7.1725 and −2.0% since. A small short building; no crowd. | |||||||
| SOFTS · cocoa’s short pressed to a flag; sugar, cotton and coffee crowds kept leaving | |||||||
| Sugar | +216,629 | LONG 91% ⚑ | L −7,444 / S +1,357 | −2.0% | −0.5% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −8,801 (rel 94 → 91) as sugar fell −2.0% to 17.59c, then −0.5% since to 17.50c. A maxed crowd leaving slowly. | |||||||
| Cotton | +76,182 | LONG 75% ⚑ | L −15,373 / S +380 | −1.9% | −0.2% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — longs −15,373 (rel 91 → 75) as cotton fell −1.9% to 82.87c, flat since. The biggest softs exit; barely still flagged. | |||||||
| Coffee (Arabica) | +15,806 | LONG 32% | L −2,091 / S +2,764 | −4.0% | +2.3% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −4,855 (rel 41 → 32) as arabica fell −4.0% to $2.723, then +2.3% since to $2.786. The crowd keeps leaving. | |||||||
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −16,406 | SHORT 71% ⚑ | L −5,145 / S +1,722 | −8.8% | +4.0% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — the short pressed to a flag (net −6,867, rel −41 → −71) as cocoa fell −8.8% to $5,402 on two-year-high ICE stocks, then +4.0% since to $5,619. Crowded fuel against a smaller crop ahead. | |||||||
| LIVESTOCK · the hog short pressed to −98; windows use the October contracts | |||||||
| Live Cattle | +49,090 | LONG 36% | L −416 / S −1,810 | −0.9% | 0.0% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE (covering) — shorts −1,810 (net +1,394, rel 35 → 36) as October cattle eased −0.9% to $218.78, flat since. The thinnest long crowd in a year against a record-low herd. | |||||||
| Feeder Cattle | +8,005 | LONG 30% | L +467 / S −327 | −1.7% | +2.1% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — net +794 (rel 27 → 30) into a −1.7% week for October feeders, then +2.1% since to $334.93. Same scarcity backdrop. | |||||||
| Lean Hogs | −42,140 | SHORT 98% ⚑ | L +3,365 / S +7,737 | +0.3% | −1.3% | Squeeze fuel | |
FLAT ⚑ — shorts +7,737 (net −4,372, rel −87 → −98) on a flat week for October hogs at $79.28, then −1.3% since. December near $69: the curve backs the crowd. | |||||||
Base metals, London (LME)Investment funds, as of Fri 18 Sep (London week 11→18 Sep). Change is one week against the 11-Sep file.
| Read | Metal | Funds net | Crowd | Flow | Price 11→18 Sep | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc | +53,750 | LONG 86% ⚑ | Δnet −5,383 wk | −0.5% | −0.5% | Tight, never short | |
FLAT ⚑ — as of Fri 18 Sep. Funds −5,383 to +53,750 (rel 94 → 86) as zinc eased −0.5% in the London week 11→18 Sep to $4,015, then −0.5% since to $3,996. Crowded, trimming for a second week. | |||||||
| Aluminium | +144,059 | LONG 73% ⚑ | Δnet −3,542 wk | +0.4% | −1.0% | Tight, never short | |
FLAT ⚑ — as of 18 Sep. Funds −3,542 to +144,059 (rel 75 → 73) on a +0.4% London week to $3,290, then −1.0% since to $3,257. Crowded and trimming slowly. | |||||||
| Nickel | +13,385 | LONG 34% | Δnet −2,899 wk | −1.8% | +0.8% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM — as of 18 Sep. Funds −2,899 (rel 42 → 34) as nickel fell −1.8% to $16,024, then +0.8% since to $16,150. No crowd. | |||||||
| Lead | −25,150 | SHORT 98% ⚑ | Δnet +642 wk | +2.0% | +1.0% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 18 Sep. The record short covered a little (+642 to −25,150, rel −100 → −98) as lead rose +2.0% to $1,888, then +1.0% since to $1,907. Crowded fuel starting to burn. | |||||||
CurrenciesLegacy non-commercial, per currency (blue means speculators are short that currency). The USD row is the implied mirror.
| Read | Currency | Pair | Net | Change | Crowd | Pair 15→22 Sep | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPY | USD/JPY | +71,982 | −48,377 | +60% | −1.5% | +0.1% | Squeeze firing | |
The record long unwound a third of itself: longs −45,677, shorts +2,700 (net +120,359 → +71,982, rel 100 → 60) as the yen fell −1.5% in the COT week (USD/JPY 155.07 → 157.38), then flat since at 157.28. Tokyo repeated its July joint-intervention stance. Still net long, still offside. RSI 50, ADX 32. | ||||||||
| EUR | EUR/USD | −52,334 | −25,341 | −72% | −0.8% | −0.5% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
The short reloaded to a flag: shorts +37,049, longs +11,708 (rel −37 → −72) as the euro fell −0.8% in the COT week to 1.1446 and −0.5% since to 1.1390, a two-month low, below every SMA, RSI 29. Crowded and being paid. | ||||||||
| GBP | GBP/USD | −82,568 | −23,853 | −78% | −1.0% | −0.8% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
Longs −14,876, shorts +8,977 (rel −56 → −78) as the pound fell −1.0% to 1.3344 and −0.8% since to 1.3243, below every SMA, RSI 29. Crowded and being paid. | ||||||||
| CAD | USD/CAD | −53,210 | −15,633 | −30% | −1.0% | −0.6% | Crowd short | |
Shorts +27,713, longs +12,080 (rel −21 → −30) as the loonie fell −1.0% (USD/CAD 1.3913 → 1.4057), then −0.6% since to 1.4138, RSI 72. Five weeks of covering reversed in one print. | ||||||||
| CHF | USD/CHF | −26,752 | +2,236 | −61% | −0.2% | −1.0% | Crowd short | |
Longs +1,926 (rel −66 → −61) on a −0.2% franc week (USD/CHF 0.8187 → 0.8201), then −1.0% since to 0.8284. Just under the flag. | ||||||||
| AUD | AUD/USD | −46,814 | −7,908 | −56% | −0.2% | −1.3% | Crowd short | |
Longs −5,779 (net −7,908, rel −46 → −56) on a −0.2% aussie week to 0.7115, then −1.3% since to 0.7025, back on its 200-day. A mid-sized short, widening. | ||||||||
| NZD | NZD/USD | −11,380 | −21,898 | −17% | −0.6% | −1.1% | No crowd | |
From a record long to net short in one print: longs −11,288, shorts +10,610 (rel +100 → −17) as the kiwi fell −0.6% to 0.5726 and −1.1% since to 0.5661, RSI 27, below every SMA. | ||||||||
| MXN | USD/MXN | +75,167 | −12,615 | +69% | −0.8% | −2.3% | Crowd long | |
Longs −7,012, shorts +5,603 (rel 80 → 69) as the peso fell −0.8% (USD/MXN 17.15 → 17.28), then −2.3% since to 17.67. The carry long dropped under the flag and keeps deleveraging. | ||||||||
| USD | DXY basket | +$18.3bn | +$12.5bn | — | +0.9% | +0.5% | No crowd | |
The aggregate spec dollar long rebuilt to +$18.3bn (+$12.5bn) — the yen (−$4.0bn), euro (−$3.6bn), pound and kiwi books all sold — as DXY rose +0.9% in the COT week to 100.54 and +0.5% since to 101.03, a two-month high. Crowd and dollar moving together. | ||||||||
Rates, equities and VIXTFF. Rates through asset managers (real money); equities and VIX through leveraged funds.
Rates, asset managers
| Read | Contract | AM net | Crowd | Yield change, week | Since | Now | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra 10Y | +727k | 98% | −5 bp | +21 bp | — | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM −16,747 (rel 100 → 98). Mirrors the 10Y. | |||||||
| UST 10Y | +2,531k | 96% | −5 bp | +21 bp | 5.17% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
The record crowd trimmed: AM −103,596 (rel 100 → 96) as the 10Y eased −5bp in the COT week to 4.96% — then +21bp since to 5.17%, the highest since June 2007. | |||||||
| Ultra Bond | +932k | 78% | −7 bp | +20 bp | — | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM +25,448 (rel 76 → 78), the one long-end add. Mirrors the 30Y. | |||||||
| UST 5Y | +2,717k | 71% | −1 bp | +17 bp | 4.99% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM −71,512 (rel 73 → 71) on a −1bp week at 4.83%, then +17bp since to 4.99%. Crowded, trimming. | |||||||
| UST Bond | +414k | 69% | −7 bp | +20 bp | 5.49% | Crowd long | |
AM −47,046 (rel 77 → 69) as the 30Y eased −7bp to 5.30%, then +20bp since to 5.49%, the highest since 2004. The long end keeps being cut. | |||||||
| UST 2Y | +1,770k | 68% | +8 bp | +11 bp | 4.86% | Crowd long | |
AM +37,354 (rel 67 → 68) INTO a +8bp week to 4.75%, then +11bp since to 4.86% on rising hike bets. Still building into the hiking cycle. | |||||||
Equity indices, leveraged funds
| Read | Index | Lev net | Change | Crowd | Price, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | −108k | −11k | −98% | +0.7% | −1.8% | Squeeze fuel | |
Pressed −10,779 back toward the record (net −107,982, rel −88 → −98) INTO a +0.7% COT week to 2,890 — then −1.8% since to 2,838, RSI 35. The most crowded equity short, again. | |||||||
| S&P 500 | −376k | −64k | −72% | +2.4% | −0.3% | Squeeze fuel | |
The biggest press on the board, −63,785 (rel −60 → −72), INTO a +2.4% COT week to 7,765, 0.4% under the record, then −0.3% since. Crowded and offside. | |||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | −36k | −23k | −35% | +6.2% | −0.4% | Crowd short | |
The short rebuilt −22,618 (rel −13 → −35) INTO a +6.2% COT week to a record 30,732 on a chip rally, then −0.4% since. Offside, not yet crowded. | |||||||
| MSCI EM | +48k | +4k | 28% | +5.1% | −1.6% | Crowd long | |
Funds +4,131 (rel 25 → 28) as EM rose +5.1% to 69.10, then −1.6% since to 67.98. The only equity long, uncrowded. | |||||||
| Dow (DJIA) | −4k | −3k | −15% | −0.4% | −0.1% | No crowd | |
Funds −2,511 (rel −6 → −15) on a −0.4% Dow week (51,869; flat since). No crowd. | |||||||
Volatility, VIX
| Read | Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Crowd | VIX change, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | −15.0k | +66.9k | −16% | −17.3% | +4.6% | Crowd short | |
Leveraged funds bought back +1,489 (net −15,015, rel −17 → −16) as VIX fell −17.3% in the COT week to 14.22 while the Nasdaq made its first record since June — then +4.6% since to 14.88. Dealers hold +66,943. The short-vol book is small and barely moved; the pressing happened in the index futures underneath it (S&P −60 → −72, Nasdaq −13 → −35, Russell −88 → −98). | |||||||