Cross-Asset COT – 29 Sep 2026

What changed

How the conclusions moved since the 22-Sep print. Open a card for the why.

Energy · natgasSqueeze firingSqueeze fuelThe squeeze that fired last week reloaded twice as big

Last week a third of the crowded natgas short covered (rel −75 → −49) and gas ran +7.8% after the print. This week the crowd came straight back: longs −46,041 and shorts +21,211 took the net to −132,799 (rel −99), INTO a +1.6% week to $3.011 — then +1.0% since. A crowded short pressing into a rising price is fuel, and this one is now the biggest on the board.

RatesUnwind tailUnwind tailThe record 10Y long trimmed, then rebuilt into a 28bp selloff

Last week asset managers trimmed the record 10Y long during a pause in yields. This week yields broke higher — 10Y +28bp to 5.23%, 5Y +22bp, 30Y +27bp — and the crowd bought it: 10Y +245,147 back to rel 100, 5Y +134,742, while the 2Y was cut −131,607. Since the print a +29k payrolls print cooled hike bets at the front end; the 10Y still edged up to 5.26%.

FX · the dollarCrowd shortCrowd short ⚑Euro, pound and aussie shorts all flagged; dollar long $25.3bn

Last week the dollar crowd came back to +$18.3bn with the euro and pound shorts reloaded to flags. This week it kept building to +$25.3bn: euro −72 → −87, pound −78 → −86, aussie newly flagged at −75, loonie −44, kiwi −27. The peso carry long fell to a one-year low as USD/MXN jumped +4.4%. DXY 102 since. Crowd and price still moving together.

Metals · preciousCrowd long ⚑Crowd long ⚑Every precious crowd sold a real-yield shock

Last week gold’s crowd deleveraged into a rising price. This week the price caught up: gold −4.5% to a seven-week low, silver −8.1%, platinum −6.8%, palladium −7.1% as the 10-year TIPS yield had its fastest monthly rise in four years. Gold longs −3,988 (rel 83), silver rel 38 → 28, palladium’s short pressed to a record −100. Copper’s record trimmed to 95.

Energy · crudeTight, never shortTight, never shortThe WTI crowd cut a fifth as Gulf exports returned

Last week Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline and crude fell −10%. This week Middle East exports reached 17.5m b/d, 98% of pre-war, and the WTI crowd cut −22,236 (rel 91 → 71) on a −1.3% week. The tightness is easing but Hormuz is still blockaded: Brent back over $100 since the print, gasoline +5.7%.

GrainsUnwind tailUnwind tailMeal bought a third record into a falling price; corn met a stocks shock

Last week beans and meal both printed records. This week meal’s crowd bought another (+16,491) INTO a −3.2% week while beans (−18,601) and corn (−31,623) sold with the price. Then USDA put 1-Sep corn stocks at 2.095bn bushels, a seven-year high ~170m above the guess: corn −4.9% since, meal −3.6%. The maxed meal book is offside.

The biggest positioning shifts

Last print This print, on the same −100 to +100 scale

NatGasEnergy

−50

Longs −46,041, shorts +21,211 (net −67,252) INTO a +1.6% week. The short doubled, a week after it squeezed.

MXNFX

−21

Longs −12,164, shorts +10,601 (net −22,765) as the peso fell −4.2%. The carry long is at a one-year low.

WTIEnergy

−20

Longs −14,162, shorts +8,074 (net −22,236) as WTI fell −1.3% with Gulf exports at 98% of pre-war.

Wheat HRWGrains

−20

Longs −5,728, shorts +4,230 as HRW fell −4.9%. Dropped under the flag.

AUDFX

−19

Shorts +17,582 (net −16,425) as the aussie fell −1.8%. Newly flagged.

Positioning risk — where the tails are

Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. These are flags for exposure and stops.

Squeeze fuelCrowded shorts still pressing. Long-biased.

NatGas

Rel −49 → −99 ⚑: longs −46,041, shorts +21,211 INTO a +1.6% week; +1.0% since to $3.041

The biggest fuel on the board, rebuilt a week after the same book squeezed +7.8%. A crowded short pressing into a rising price.

Russell 2000 · Lean Hogs · Palladium

All three at a −100 record: Russell −6,572, hogs shorts +7,621, palladium shorts +1,668

Three record shorts still pressing and still being paid. The Russell bounced +0.9% since; hogs and palladium have not turned.

EUR · GBP · AUD (vs USD)

EUR −72 → −87 ⚑, GBP −78 → −86 ⚑, AUD −56 → −75 ⚑; dollar long +$25.3bn

Crowded currency shorts still pressing, with the price on their side. The euro is RSI 19 — stretched crowd, stretched price.

Squeeze firingThe squeeze is in progress: fuel being spent.

LME Lead

Rel −98 → −85 ⚑ (as of 25 Sep): funds +3,195 into a +1.0% London week

The record short started to cover — then lead fell −4.9% since. Fuel being spent, but the price has not followed yet.

JPY (the mirror)

Rel 60 → 46: longs −16,008 on a flat yen; net +120,359 → +55,440 in two prints

Not a short squeeze but its mirror: the September record yen long keeps draining. Over half of it has gone.

Unwind tailCrowded longs still adding. Do not add; never a short.

UST 10Y · 5Y · Bond

10Y 96 → 100 ⚑ (+245,147), 5Y 74 ⚑ (+134,742), Bond 73 ⚑, all INTO a +22 to +28bp week

The record duration long bought the selloff and is offside, with the 10Y at 5.26%, the highest since 2007.

Soybean Meal

Rel 100 ⚑, a third straight record: longs +12,596 INTO a −3.2% week; −3.6% since

A maxed crowd adding into a falling price, now offside after the USDA stocks shock hit the grain complex.

Sugar

Rel 91 ⚑: longs +979; March +1.5% in the week, +5.8% since to a 16-month high

A maxed crowd being paid on a deficit call. Its unwind is the crowd’s risk to carry — never a short.

Tight, never shortPhysically tight: the short veto. Long-biased.

Copper

Rel 100 → 95 ⚑: longs −4,327 as copper fell −3.4% with the metals complex

The Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula losses are still real. A trimmed record on scarcity: a tail on the long, never a short.

WTI · products

WTI 91 → 71 ⚑ (−22,236) as Gulf exports reached 98% of pre-war; Brent back over $100 since

The tightness is easing, not gone — Hormuz is still blockaded. The short veto holds at partial strength.

Cattle · LME Zinc · Aluminium

Cattle long thin (39) vs a record-low herd; zinc 82 ⚑, alu 74 ⚑ (as of 25 Sep)

Scarcity under thin or trimming crowds. LME fell ~5% since; the extremes are tails, not fades.

Do not force these

Reading the doubled natgas short as a bearish signal

The crowd pressed into a rising price; last week this same book squeezed +7.8% in three sessions, and offside crowded shorts are fuel.

Treating the record 10Y long as a floor under bonds

Asset managers bought into a +28bp selloff; a maxed crowd adding into losses is an unwind tail, not support.

Fading sugar because the crowd is maxed

The crowd is being paid on a deficit forecast and the cane is going to ethanol; shorting a crowded, tight long tested 0 of 7 years.

Why no trades here: a six-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at one- to eight-week holds, and shorting a crowded long was the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). This page displays; newcot (v2) decides.

Positioning against price, same week

How each crowd moved against the price in the same week (Tue 22 Sep → 29 Sep). Confirm means they agreed; diverge means the crowd was offside. Open a row for the read.

Read	Market	Positioning move this week	Crowd	Price 22→29 Sep	Read	Since
	NatGas	longs CUT −46,041, shorts +21,211 — net −65,547 → −132,799	SHORT −99% ⚑ (was −49%)	+1.6%	Diverge	+1.0%
Last week a third of the crowded short covered and gas ran +7.8%. This week the crowd came back twice as big: longs −46,041 and shorts +21,211 took the net to −132,799, a near-record, INTO a +1.6% week to $3.011 — then +1.0% since to $3.041. A crowded short pressing into a rising price is the textbook fuel state.
	UST 10Y / 5Y / 2Y	AM ADDED +245,147 (10Y) · +134,742 (5Y) · CUT −131,607 (2Y)	LONG +100% ⚑ · +74% ⚑ · +63%	+28bp / +22bp / +13bp	Diverge	+3bp / −0bp / −6bp
The bond selloff week — 10Y +28bp to 5.23%, 5Y +22bp, 30Y +27bp — and asset managers bought the belly and the 10Y back to a record while selling the 2Y. Since the print a +29k payrolls print cooled October hike bets: the 2Y −6bp, but the 10Y +3bp to 5.26%, the highest since 2007. A maxed crowd adding into losses.
	EUR / GBP / AUD (dollar shorts)	EUR shorts +28,397 · GBP longs −13,059 · AUD shorts +17,582	SHORT −87% ⚑ · −86% ⚑ · −75% ⚑	−0.9% / −0.8% / −1.8%	Confirm	−0.9% / 0.0% / −0.4%
The dollar crowd grew for a second week: the aggregate spec dollar long rose to +$25.3bn (+$7.0bn), with the euro short pressed to −87, the pound to −86 and the aussie newly flagged at −75 — all as the currencies fell and DXY rose +0.8% to 101.38, then 102.00 since. Crowd and price moving together; the euro is RSI 19.
	USD/MXN (peso carry)	longs −12,164, shorts +10,601 — net to a one-year low	LONG +48% (was +69%)	−4.2%	Confirm	−0.6%
The peso carry long lost −22,765 in one print, its smallest net in a year, as the peso fell −4.2% (USD/MXN 17.28 → 18.04) — the biggest currency move of the week. Then 18.15 since.
	Gold / Silver / Platinum / Palladium	gold longs −3,988 · silver −2,417 / +3,278 · platinum shorts +1,608 · palladium shorts +1,668	LONG +83% ⚑ · +28% · +43% · SHORT −100% ⚑	−4.5% / −8.1% / −6.8% / −7.1%	Confirm	+0.2% / +1.1% / +1.8% / −2.8%
A real-yield shock: the 10-year TIPS yield had its fastest monthly rise in four years and gold gave back its 2026 gains, −4.5% to a seven-week low of $4,180, silver −8.1%. Every precious crowd sold with it, and palladium’s short pressed to a record −100. Since the print gold flat, silver +1.1%, palladium −2.8%.
	WTI / Brent / RBOB	WTI longs −14,162, shorts +8,074 · Brent −822 · RBOB −1,852	LONG +71% ⚑ · +19% · +95% ⚑	−1.3% / +0.8% / −2.8%	Confirm	+1.2% / +6.0% / +5.7%
Middle East crude exports rebounded to 17.5m b/d, 98% of pre-war, as Saudi flows ran through the pipeline that avoids Hormuz; the WTI crowd cut a fifth (rel 91 → 71) on a −1.3% week. December Brent held +0.8%. Since the print WTI +1.2%, Brent +6.0% back over $100, gasoline +5.7%.
	Soybean Meal / Beans / Corn	meal +16,491 to a RECORD · beans longs −19,867 · corn longs −31,623	LONG +100% ⚑ · +93% ⚑ · +92% ⚑	−3.2% / −2.1% / −2.7%	Diverge	−3.6% / −1.4% / −4.9%
Meal’s crowd bought a third straight record INTO a −3.2% week while the bean and corn crowds sold with the price. Then USDA’s 30-Sep stocks report put corn at 2.095bn bushels, a seven-year high ~170m above the trade guess: corn −4.9% since, meal −3.6%, beans −1.4%. The maxed meal book is now offside.
	Copper	longs −4,327, shorts +137	LONG +95% ⚑ (was +100%)	−3.4%	Confirm	+0.4%
The record long trimmed lightly as copper fell −3.4% to $6.60 with the rest of the metals complex — flat since. The Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula losses still sit under the crowd: a tail on the long, never a short.
	Sugar (Mar)	longs +979, shorts −728	LONG +91% ⚑	+1.5%	Confirm	+5.8%
A maxed crowd held its position as March sugar rose +1.5% — then ran +5.8% since to 19.93c, a 16-month high, after the ISO projected a 2026/27 deficit and Brazil’s output fell. High fuel prices are pulling Brazilian cane into ethanol. The crowd is being paid; its unwind risk is the tail.
	Russell / S&P / Nasdaq	Russell shorts PRESSED −6,572 · S&P +1,609 · Nasdaq +1,888	SHORT −100% ⚑ · −71% ⚑ · −34%	−2.8% / −1.2% / −1.3%	Confirm*	+0.9% / +0.7% / +1.5%
The bond selloff took the indices down in the COT week and the Russell short pressed to a record −100 with it; the S&P and Nasdaq shorts barely moved. Since the print the tape bounced — Russell +0.9%, S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.5% to above its record close. Crowded shorts on a bouncing tape are fuel.
	Hogs / Cattle	hogs shorts PRESSED +7,621 · cattle shorts −2,651	SHORT −100% ⚑ · LONG +39%	−1.8% / +0.6%	Confirm	+0.6% / +0.3%
The hog short pressed to a record as December hogs fell −1.8% to $69.70; cattle shorts covered into a small rise. The cattle long stays thin against a record-low herd.
	LME Lead / Zinc (as of 25 Sep)	lead funds +3,195 · zinc −2,341	SHORT −85% ⚑ · LONG +82% ⚑	+1.0% / −0.5%	Confirm	−4.9% / −5.6%
The record lead short covered (rel −98 → −85) into a +1.0% London week; zinc trimmed for a third week. Then the whole complex fell ~5% since (lead −4.9%, zinc −5.6%, aluminium −5.3%) as the dollar firmed.

Since the print: technicalsA secondary timing layer, 29 Sep → 5 Oct. Not the thesis.

Read	Asset	Now	Trend	RSI 14	ATR %	TradingView rating
	NatGas	$3.034	▲ up	54	3.9%	Buy
The short doubled to −132,799 (rel −49 → −99) INTO a +1.6% COT week to $3.011 — then +1.0% since, above its 20- and 50-day, just under the 200-day ($3.12). Buy-rated, ADX 22. The biggest fuel on the board, sitting on a rising price.
	US 2Y / 10Y yield	4.82% / 5.26%	▲ up	—	—	–
The COT week was the selloff — 2Y +13bp to 4.88%, 10Y +28bp to 5.23%, 30Y +27bp to 5.57% — and asset managers bought the 10Y back to a record (+245,147) while cutting the 2Y (−131,607). Since the print a +29k payrolls print pulled the 2Y −6bp to 4.82%; the 10Y still edged +3bp to 5.26%, the highest since 2007.
	US Dollar (DXY)	102.00	▲ up	75	0.4%	Buy
DXY rose +0.8% in the COT week to 101.38 and +0.6% since to 102.00, above every SMA, RSI 75 — and the aggregate spec dollar long grew to +$25.3bn (+$7.0bn) as every currency book but the franc was sold.
	EUR/USD	1.1238	▼ down	19	0.5%	Sell
The short pressed to −87 (shorts +28,397) as the euro fell −0.9% to 1.1341 and −0.9% since to 1.1238, its lowest in the 220-day window, below every SMA. RSI 19, deeply oversold.
	GBP/USD	1.3234	▼ down	35	0.5%	Sell
Longs −13,059 (rel −78 → −86) as the pound fell −0.8% to 1.3231, flat since, below every SMA. Crowded and being paid.
	AUD/USD	0.6955	▼ down	31	0.6%	Sell
Shorts +17,582 (rel −56 → −75) as the aussie fell −1.8% to 0.6985, then −0.4% since, under every SMA. Newly flagged.
	USD/MXN	18.15	▲ up	77	1.0%	Buy
The carry long cut −22,765 to a one-year low (rel 69 → 48) as the peso fell −4.2% (USD/MXN 17.28 → 18.04), then 18.15 since. RSI 77, ADX 54 on the pair.
	Gold	$4,186	▼ down	37	2.2%	Sell
Longs −3,988, shorts +3,083 (rel 88 → 83) as gold fell −4.5% to $4,180, a seven-week low, as the 10-year TIPS yield had its fastest monthly rise in four years. Flat since, under every SMA, RSI 37.
	Silver	$61.76	▼ down	42	3.8%	Sell
Both legs moved against it (rel 38 → 28) as silver fell −8.1% to $61.15, then +1.1% since, under every SMA. Not a crowd.
	Palladium	$1,180	▼ down	33	4.0%	Sell
A record short (rel −100) pressed +1,668 as palladium fell −7.1%, then −2.8% since, under every SMA. Crowded fuel, still being paid.
	Copper	$6.624	▬ flat	50	2.0%	Neutral
The record long trimmed (rel 100 → 95) as copper fell −3.4% to $6.60, flat since — sitting on its 20- and 50-day, well above the 200-day. Still crowded on real mine losses.
	WTI crude (Nov)	$90.53	▬ flat	47	4.9%	Neutral
The crowd cut a fifth (rel 91 → 71; longs −14,162) as November WTI fell −1.3% to $89.38 with Gulf exports back at 98% of pre-war through the Saudi bypass — then +1.2% since, under its 20-day ($95.41), above the 50- and 200-day.
	RBOB (Nov)	$3.306	▲ up	55	4.1%	Buy
A near-maxed crowd that barely moved (rel 97 → 95) on a −2.8% week, then +5.7% since to $3.31, above every SMA.
	Soybean Meal	$345.9	▼ down	43	2.4%	Neutral
A third straight record long (+16,491 to +207,578) INTO a −3.2% COT week — then −3.6% since, back under its 20-day, ADX 35. Maxed, adding and offside.
	Corn	$4.9675	▼ down	38	2.2%	Sell
Longs −31,623 (rel 97 → 92) as corn fell −2.7% — then −4.9% since after USDA’s 2.095bn-bushel stocks print, a seven-year high. Under its 20-day, sitting on the 50-day, ADX 35.
	Sugar (Mar)	19.93c	▲ up	75	3.1%	Strong buy
A maxed crowd (rel 91) being paid: March sugar +1.5% in the COT week, then +5.8% since to a 16-month high on the ISO’s 2026/27 deficit call and weaker Brazilian output. RSI 75, ADX 39, Strong-buy rated.
	Cocoa	$5,670	▬ flat	49	5.6%	Buy
The flagged short sat still (rel −71 → −69) on a flat COT week, then +4.8% since, just under its 20- and 50-day.
	Lean Hogs (Dec)	$70.13	▼ down	31	2.5%	Sell
A record short (rel −100; shorts +7,621) as December hogs fell −1.8%, then +0.6% since, under every SMA, ADX 42.
	Russell 2000	2,833	▼ down	40	1.2%	Sell
A record short (rel −100) pressed −6,572 as the Russell fell −2.8% to 2,808 — then +0.9% since, still under its 20- and 50-day, ADX 40.
	S&P 500	7,723	▲ up	55	0.9%	Strong buy
The crowded short barely moved (rel −72 → −71) on a −1.2% COT week, then +0.7% since, above its 20- and 50-day. ADX 9 — no trend.
	Nasdaq-100	30,808	▲ up	65	1.3%	Strong buy
Shorts covered +1,888 (rel −34) on a −1.3% COT week, then +1.5% since to above its 22-Sep record close. Strong-buy rated.
	VIX	15.30	▼ down	48	8.6%	Strong sell
Leveraged funds covered +7,548 (rel −16 → −8) as VIX rose +12.7% to 16.03, then −4.6% since, under every SMA.

Every contract

The full data by asset class, numbers first. Positioning to Tuesday 29 Sep 2026, self-pulled from the CFTC and the LME. Open a class, then a row for its read.

CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated, managed money. Price is the same COT week 22→29 Sep. Brent uses the December contract (BZ1! rolled 29-Sep) and sugar the March contract (SB1! rolled 30-Sep) across both windows; hogs use December.

Read	Contract	Net	Crowd	Flow (gross legs)	Price 22→29 Sep	Since	Crowd state
ENERGY · the natgas short doubled into a rising price; the WTI crowd cut a fifth as Gulf exports returned
	WTI (NYMEX)	+79,592	LONG 71% ⚑	L −14,162 / S +8,074	−1.3%	+1.2%	Tight, never short
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −22,236 (rel 91 → 71) as November WTI fell −1.3% to $89.38 with Middle East exports back at 98% of pre-war, then +1.2% since to $90.49. Barely still flagged; Hormuz is still blockaded, so the short veto holds at partial strength.
	RBOB Gasoline	+94,186	LONG 95% ⚑	L −3,529 / S −1,677	−2.8%	+5.7%	Crowd long ⚑
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — both legs trimmed (net −1,852, rel 97 → 95) as November gasoline fell −2.8% to $3.132, then +5.7% since to $3.312. Near-maxed and holding.
	NY Harbor ULSD	+12,945	LONG 33%	L +663 / S −2,845	−5.3%	+0.6%	Crowd long
DIVERGE — shorts −2,845 (net +3,508, rel 24 → 33) into a −5.3% week for diesel to $4.510, flat since. Not a crowd.
	Brent (NYMEX LD)	+4,186	LONG 19%	L −605 / S +217	+0.8%	+6.0%	No crowd
DIVERGE — net −822 (rel 22 → 19) as December Brent rose +0.8% to $96.16, then +6.0% since to $101.92. A thin book; no crowd.
	NatGas	−132,799	SHORT 99% ⚑	L −46,041 / S +21,211	+1.6%	+1.0%	Squeeze fuel
DIVERGE ⚑ — the short doubled (net −67,252, rel −49 → −99) INTO a +1.6% week to $3.011, then +1.0% since to $3.041. Crowded fuel on a rising price.
PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · a real-yield shock: every precious crowd sold, palladium’s short hit a record
	Copper (HG)	+78,058	LONG 95% ⚑	L −4,327 / S +137	−3.4%	+0.4%	Tight, never short
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −4,464 (rel 100 → 95) as copper fell −3.4% to $6.60, flat since. A trimmed record on real mine losses.
	Gold	+120,318	LONG 83% ⚑	L −3,988 / S +3,083	−4.5%	+0.2%	Crowd long ⚑
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −7,071 (rel 88 → 83) as gold fell −4.5% to $4,180, a seven-week low, flat since. Crowded, deleveraging.
	Steel HRC	+7,578	LONG 60%	L +96 / S −101	—	—	No crowd
FLAT — rel 59 → 60. No tradeable price series.
	Platinum	+8,256	LONG 43%	L −64 / S +1,608	−6.8%	+1.8%	Crowd long
CONFIRM↓ — net −1,672 (rel 47 → 43) as platinum fell −6.8% to $1,701, then +1.8% since. Sub-extreme.
	Silver	+7,614	LONG 28%	L −2,417 / S +3,278	−8.1%	+1.1%	Crowd long
CONFIRM↓ — net −5,695 (rel 38 → 28) as silver fell −8.1% to $61.15, then +1.1% since. Not a crowd.
	Aluminum (COMEX)	−43	SHORT 7%	L +50 / S −50	—	—	No crowd
A 43-lot book. Rel is noise here.
	Palladium	−7,962	SHORT 100% ⚑	L −288 / S +1,668	−7.1%	−2.8%	Squeeze fuel
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — a record short (net −1,956, rel −91 → −100) as palladium fell −7.1% to $1,214, then −2.8% since. Crowded fuel, still being paid.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS · meal bought a third record into a falling price; corn and beans sold before the stocks shock
	Soybean Meal	+207,578	LONG 100% ⚑	L +12,596 / S −3,895	−3.2%	−3.6%	Unwind tail
DIVERGE ⚑ — a third straight record (net +16,491) INTO a −3.2% week to $359.0, then −3.6% since. Maxed, adding and offside.
	Soybeans	+246,558	LONG 93% ⚑	L −19,867 / S −1,266	−2.1%	−1.4%	Crowd long ⚑
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −18,601 (rel 100 → 93) as beans fell −2.1% to $12.98, then −1.4% since. The record crowd started to leave.
	Corn	+381,220	LONG 92% ⚑	L −31,623 / S −8,746	−2.7%	−4.9%	Crowd long ⚑
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −22,877 (rel 97 → 92) as corn fell −2.7% to $5.22, then −4.9% since on USDA’s seven-year-high stocks print. Crowded, leaving with the price.
	Wheat (KCBT · HRW)	+30,677	LONG 63%	L −5,728 / S +4,230	−4.9%	−0.4%	Crowd long
CONFIRM↓ — net −9,958 (rel 83 → 63) as HRW fell −4.9% to $7.43, flat since. Dropped under the flag.
	Soybean Oil	+83,564	LONG 50%	L −9,486 / S −913	+0.6%	+0.9%	Crowd long
DIVERGE — net −8,573 (rel 55 → 50) into a +0.6% week to 68.36c, +0.9% since. Sub-extreme.
	Wheat (CBOT · SRW)	−22,109	SHORT 19%	L −6,054 / S +4,039	−3.4%	−0.7%	No crowd
CONFIRM↓ — net −10,093 (rel −11 → −19) as SRW fell −3.4% to $6.93. A small short building; no crowd.
SOFTS · sugar’s maxed crowd is being paid on a deficit call; cotton dropped under the flag
	Sugar (Mar)	+218,336	LONG 91% ⚑	L +979 / S −728	+1.5%	+5.8%	Unwind tail
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — net +1,707 (rel 91) as March sugar rose +1.5% to 18.84c, then +5.8% since to 19.93c, a 16-month high, on the ISO’s 2026/27 deficit call. A maxed crowd being paid.
	Cotton	+67,837	LONG 67%	L −4,532 / S +3,813	−4.8%	+0.4%	Crowd long
CONFIRM↓ — net −8,345 (rel 75 → 67) as cotton fell −4.8% to 78.86c, flat since. Dropped under the flag.
	Coffee (Arabica)	+16,206	LONG 32%	L +1,435 / S +1,035	+6.3%	−0.2%	Crowd long
CONFIRM↑ — net +400 (rel 32) as arabica rose +6.3% to $2.895, flat since. Not a crowd.
	Cocoa (NYBOT)	−16,022	SHORT 69%	L +1,075 / S +691	+0.1%	+4.8%	Crowd short
FLAT — net +384 (rel −71 → −69) on a flat week at $5,408, then +4.8% since to $5,670. Just under the flag; the fuel sits still.
LIVESTOCK · the hog short pressed to a record; windows use December hogs
	Live Cattle	+53,193	LONG 39%	L +1,452 / S −2,651	+0.6%	+0.3%	Tight, never short
CONFIRM↑ — net +4,103 (rel 36 → 39) as cattle rose +0.6% to $220.80, flat since. A thin long crowd against a record-low herd.
	Feeder Cattle	+8,166	LONG 30%	L +1,122 / S +961	+2.4%	+0.1%	Tight, never short
CONFIRM↑ — net +161 (rel 30) as feeders rose +2.4% to $330.90, flat since. Same scarcity backdrop.
	Lean Hogs	−50,635	SHORT 100% ⚑	L −874 / S +7,621	−1.8%	+0.6%	Squeeze fuel
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — a record short (net −8,495, rel −98 → −100) as December hogs fell −1.8% to $69.70, then +0.6% since. Crowded fuel, still being paid.

Base metals, London (LME)Investment funds, as of Fri 25 Sep (London week 18→25 Sep). Change is one week against the 18-Sep file.

Read	Metal	Funds net	Crowd	Flow	Price 18→25 Sep	Since	Crowd state
	Zinc	+51,409	LONG 82% ⚑	Δnet −2,341 wk	−0.5%	−5.6%	Tight, never short
FLAT ⚑ — as of Fri 25 Sep. Funds −2,341 to +51,409 (rel 86 → 82) as zinc eased −0.5% in the London week 18→25 Sep to $3,996 — then −5.6% since to $3,772. Crowded, trimming for a third week.
	Aluminium	+146,410	LONG 74% ⚑	Δnet +2,351 wk	−1.0%	−5.3%	Tight, never short
FLAT ⚑ — as of 25 Sep. Funds +2,351 to +146,410 (rel 73 → 74) on a −1.0% London week to $3,257 — then −5.3% since to $3,085. Crowded and still adding.
	Nickel	+12,816	LONG 33%	Δnet −569 wk	+0.8%	−4.4%	No crowd
FLAT — as of 25 Sep. Funds −569 (rel 34 → 33) on a +0.8% week to $16,150, then −4.4% since to $15,438. No crowd.
	Lead	−21,955	SHORT 85% ⚑	Δnet +3,195 wk	+1.0%	−4.9%	Squeeze firing
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 25 Sep. The record short covered (+3,195 to −21,955, rel −98 → −85) as lead rose +1.0% to $1,907 — then −4.9% since to $1,814. Fuel being spent.

CurrenciesLegacy non-commercial, per currency (blue means speculators are short that currency). The USD row is the implied mirror.

Read	Currency	Pair	Net	Change	Crowd	Pair 22→29 Sep	Since	Crowd state
	EUR	EUR/USD	−63,256	−10,922	−87%	−0.9%	−0.9%	Crowd short ⚑
Shorts +28,397, longs +17,475 (rel −72 → −87) as the euro fell −0.9% in the COT week to 1.1341 and −0.9% since to 1.1238, the lowest in the 220-day window, below every SMA, RSI 19. Crowded and being paid.
	GBP	GBP/USD	−91,075	−8,507	−86%	−0.8%	0.0%	Crowd short ⚑
Longs −13,059, shorts −4,552 (rel −78 → −86) as the pound fell −0.8% to 1.3231, flat since at 1.3234, below every SMA. Crowded and being paid.
	AUD	AUD/USD	−63,239	−16,425	−75%	−1.8%	−0.4%	Crowd short ⚑
Shorts +17,582 (rel −56 → −75) as the aussie fell −1.8% to 0.6985, then −0.4% since to 0.6955, under every SMA, RSI 31. Newly flagged.
	CAD	USD/CAD	−78,671	−25,461	−44%	−0.9%	−0.5%	Crowd short
Shorts +24,478 (rel −30 → −44) as the loonie fell −0.9% (USD/CAD 1.4057 → 1.4189), then 1.4261 since, a one-year high in the pair, RSI 78. A second week of building.
	CHF	USD/CHF	−24,617	+2,135	−56%	−1.7%	+0.6%	Crowd short
Longs +2,639 (rel −61 → −56) INTO a −1.7% franc week (USD/CHF 0.8201 → 0.8339), then 0.8289 since. The one currency crowd that covered.
	NZD	NZD/USD	−17,315	−5,935	−27%	−1.5%	−0.5%	Crowd short
Shorts +7,702 (rel −17 → −27) as the kiwi fell −1.5% to 0.5640, then −0.5% since to 0.5611, RSI 25.
	JPY	USD/JPY	+55,440	−16,542	+46%	+0.1%	−0.3%	Crowd long
Longs −16,008 (rel 60 → 46) on a flat yen week (USD/JPY 157.38 → 157.28), then 157.71 since. The record long built in early September keeps draining — down from +120,359 to +55,440 in two prints.
	MXN	USD/MXN	+52,402	−22,765	+48%	−4.2%	−0.6%	Crowd long
Longs −12,164, shorts +10,601 (rel 69 → 48) as the peso fell −4.2% (USD/MXN 17.28 → 18.04), then 18.15 since. The carry long is at its smallest net in a year.
	USD	DXY basket	+$25.3bn	+$7.0bn	—	+0.8%	+0.6%	No crowd
The aggregate spec dollar long grew to +$25.3bn (+$7.0bn) — the loonie (−$1.8bn), euro (−$1.5bn), yen (−$1.3bn) and aussie (−$1.1bn) books all sold — as DXY rose +0.8% in the COT week to 101.38 and +0.6% since to 102.00. Crowd and dollar moving together.

Rates, equities and VIXTFF. Rates through asset managers (real money); equities and VIX through leveraged funds.

Rates, asset managers

Read	Contract	AM net	Crowd	Yield change, week	Since	Now	Crowd state
	UST 10Y	+2,777k	100%	+28 bp	+3 bp	5.26%	Unwind tail
Back to the record: AM +245,147 (rel 96 → 100) INTO a +28bp COT week for the 10Y to 5.23% — then +3bp since to 5.26%, the highest since 2007. A maxed crowd adding into losses.
	Ultra 10Y	+696k	94%	+28 bp	+3 bp	—	Crowd long ⚑
AM −30,289 (rel 98 → 94). The one 10-year book that trimmed.
	UST 5Y	+2,852k	74%	+22 bp	−0 bp	5.04%	Crowd long ⚑
AM +134,742 (rel 71 → 74) INTO a +22bp week to 5.05%, flat since. Crowded and adding.
	UST Bond	+437k	73%	+27 bp	+5 bp	5.61%	Crowd long ⚑
AM +23,340 (rel 69 → 73) as the 30Y rose +27bp to 5.57%, then +5bp since to 5.61%. Back over the flag.
	Ultra Bond	+833k	70%	+27 bp	+5 bp	—	Crowd long ⚑
AM −99,115 (rel 78 → 70), the biggest long-end cut. Mirrors the 30Y; right on the flag.
	UST 2Y	+1,638k	63%	+13 bp	−6 bp	4.82%	Crowd long
AM −131,607 (rel 68 → 63) as the 2Y rose +13bp to 4.88% — then −6bp since to 4.82% after a +29k payrolls print cooled October hike bets.

Equity indices, leveraged funds

Read	Index	Lev net	Change	Crowd	Price, week	Since	Crowd state
	Russell 2000	−115k	−7k	−100%	−2.8%	+0.9%	Squeeze fuel
A record short: pressed −6,572 (net −114,554, rel −98 → −100) as the Russell fell −2.8% to 2,808 in the bond selloff — then +0.9% since to 2,833. The most crowded equity short.
	S&P 500	−374k	+2k	−71%	−1.2%	+0.7%	Crowd short ⚑
Covered +1,609 (rel −72 → −71) into a −1.2% COT week to 7,671, then +0.7% since to 7,723. Crowded and barely moved.
	Nasdaq-100	−34k	+2k	−34%	−1.3%	+1.5%	Crowd short
Covered +1,888 (rel −35 → −34) into a −1.3% week to 30,339, then +1.5% since to 30,808, above its 22-Sep record close. Offside, not crowded.
	MSCI EM	+33k	−15k	19%	−2.5%	+0.4%	Crowd long
Funds −14,613 (rel 28 → 19) as EM fell −2.5% to 67.40, then +0.4% since. The only equity long, shrinking.
	Dow (DJIA)	−5k	−1k	−20%	−1.0%	−0.3%	No crowd
Funds −1,277 (rel −15 → −20) on a −1.0% Dow week to 51,355, flat since. No crowd.

Volatility, VIX

Read	Contract	Lev net	Dealer net	Crowd	VIX change, week	Since	Crowd state
	VIX	−7.5k	+70.0k	−8%	+12.7%	−4.6%	Covering
Leveraged funds covered +7,548 (net −15,015 → −7,467, rel −16 → −8) as VIX rose +12.7% in the COT week to 16.03 on the bond selloff — then −4.6% since to 15.30. Dealers hold +69,964. The short-vol book halved and is no longer a crowd; the crowded equity shorts sit in the index futures underneath it (Russell −100, S&P −71).

Funds doubled the natural-gas short into a rising price and bought the bond selloff back to a record.

The natgas short doubled into a rising price

The record 10Y long rebuilt into the bond selloff

Precious-metal crowds sold a real-yield shock