Sugar’s crowd bought a record into a 10% rally
Longs +30,758, shorts −3,420: net +252,514 (rel 91 → 100 ⚑) as March sugar rose +10.5% to 20.82c — then −2.7% since. A maxed crowd being paid; its unwind is the tail.
What changed
How the conclusions moved since the 29-Sep print. Open a card for the why.
FX · the dollarCrowd short ⚑Crowd short ⚑Euro and aussie shorts hit records; dollar long $35.3bn
Last week the dollar crowd grew to +$25.3bn with the euro, pound and aussie shorts all flagged. This week it jumped to +$35.3bn: euro −87 → −100 (shorts +40,913), aussie −75 → −100 (+25,797), pound −86 → −92, kiwi −27 → −45. The pairs barely moved — the euro −0.7%, the aussie flat — so the crowd grew far faster than the price paid it.
FX · pesoCrowd longNo crowdThe peso carry long nearly vanished
Last week the carry long fell to a one-year low (rel 48) as the peso dropped −4.2%. This week it lost another −41,701 (longs −16,734, shorts +24,967) to +10,701, rel 10 — on a week the peso firmed. Since the print USD/MXN jumped +2.3% to 18.40.
Softs · sugarUnwind tailUnwind tailSugar’s crowd bought a record into a 10% rally
Last week the maxed crowd held (rel 91) and March sugar ran +5.8% after the print to a 16-month high. This week the crowd bought +34,178 more to a record +252,514 (rel 100) as sugar rose +10.5% to 20.82c. Then −2.7% since. A record crowd, still being paid.
Energy · natgasSqueeze fuelSqueeze fuelThe natgas short pressed to a record into a rising price
Last week the short doubled to −132,799 into a +1.6% week. This week it pressed again — shorts +9,974 to −144,537, rel −100 — INTO a +3.4% week, then +1.6% since to $3.164, above every SMA. Storage ~2.4% above the 5-year average is the crowd’s case; the price keeps rising against it.
Energy · crudeTight, never shortTight, never shortThe WTI crowd dropped under the flag; Brent stayed over $100
Last week the WTI crowd cut a fifth as Gulf exports returned. This week it cut a third more (longs −30,675, rel 71 → 48) on a flat week, while December Brent rose +4.6% back over $100 and gasoline’s crowd added to rel 98. Hormuz flows are still curtailed.
GrainsCrowd long ⚑Crowd long ⚑Corn’s crowd sold before USDA raised the crop
Last week USDA’s seven-year-high corn stocks hit a crowd at rel 92. This week funds sold −51,381 more (rel 80) as corn fell −2.7% — then the 9-Oct WASDE raised the corn yield to 181.2 bu/ac and stocks by 282m bushels: corn −5.6% since. Beans bought to rel 97; wheat −5.4% since.
The biggest positioning shifts
Last print This print, on the same −100 to +100 scale
VIXVol
+62
Leveraged funds bought +12,961 and went net long as VIX fell −6.3%. A base effect on a thin 52-week range.
MXNFX
−38
Longs −16,734, shorts +24,967 (net −41,701). The carry long is nearly gone; USD/MXN +2.3% since.
AUDFX
−25
Shorts +25,797, longs −9,552 (net −35,349) on a flat aussie. A record short.
WTIEnergy
−23
Longs −30,675 (net −25,994) on a flat week. Dropped under the flag.
CopperMetals
−21
Longs −15,258 (net −16,924) into a +0.7% week. A fifth of the record long left.
Positioning risk — where the tails are
Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. These are flags for exposure and stops.
Squeeze fuelCrowded shorts still pressing. Long-biased.
NatGas
Rel −99 → −100 ⚑, a record: shorts +9,974 INTO a +3.4% week; +1.6% since to $3.164
The biggest fuel on the board grew again on a rising price, above every SMA. Storage ~2.4% above the 5-year average backs the crowd.
EUR · AUD · GBP (vs USD)
EUR −87 → −100 ⚑ (shorts +40,913), AUD −75 → −100 ⚑ (+25,797), GBP −92 ⚑; dollar long +$35.3bn
Two record currency shorts built on near-flat pairs. Maximum fuel with the price barely moving: crowded, not yet paid much.
S&P 500 · Palladium · LME Lead
S&P −71 → −79 ⚑ (−41,902) INTO a +1.9% week; palladium −100 ⚑ (shorts +2,168); lead −100 ⚑ (as of 2 Oct)
The S&P short pressed into a rising index and is offside; the palladium and lead records are still being paid.
Squeeze firingThe squeeze is in progress: fuel being spent.
Cocoa
Rel −69 → −48: shorts −3,715 as cocoa rose +5.4% to $5,700; flat since
Fuel being spent: the short covered into a rising price. Under half of the 52-week extreme remains.
Lean Hogs · Russell 2000
Hogs −100 → −82 (net +9,131) on a +1.0% week; Russell −100 → −92 (+9,237) on +0.8%
Two record shorts started to cover — then both prices slipped since (hogs −3.6%, Russell −0.8%). The squeeze has not held.
MXN (the mirror)
Rel 48 → 10: longs −16,734, shorts +24,967 (net −41,701), a 52-week low
Not a short squeeze but its mirror: the peso carry long nearly vanished, and USD/MXN jumped +2.3% since to 18.40.
Unwind tailCrowded longs still adding. Do not add; never a short.
Sugar
Rel 91 → 100 ⚑, a record: longs +30,758 as March sugar ran +10.5% to 20.82c; −2.7% since
A maxed crowd being paid on a deficit outlook. Its unwind is the tail — never a short.
UST Ultra 10Y · 10Y · 5Y
Ultra 10Y 94 → 100 ⚑ (+84,501), 10Y 100 ⚑ (+51,608), 5Y 76 ⚑ (+62,607)
The duration crowd kept buying the 10-year sector as the 30Y auction cleared at 5.618%, the highest since 2000. Maxed and adding.
Soybeans · RBOB
Beans 93 → 97 ⚑ (+11,508) on a flat week; RBOB 95 → 98 ⚑ (+2,900)
Near-record crowds still adding. USDA raised the soy yield to 53.1 bu/ac and beans slipped −1.4% since.
Tight, never shortPhysically tight: the short veto. Long-biased.
Copper
Rel 95 → 74 ⚑: longs −15,258 into a +0.7% week; +1.0% since to $6.717
A fifth of the record long left into a firm price. The mine losses are still real: a tail on the long, never a short.
WTI · Brent
WTI 71 → 48 (longs −30,675) on a flat week; Brent +4.6% to $100.58, +2.8% since to $103.44
The WTI crowd dropped under the flag while Brent held over $100. Hormuz flows are still curtailed: the short veto holds at partial strength.
Cattle · LME Zinc
Cattle 37, feeders 35 vs a record-low herd; zinc 82 → 70 ⚑ (as of 2 Oct)
Scarcity under thin or trimming crowds. The extremes are tails, not fades.
Do not force these
Reading the record euro and aussie shorts as confirmation
Both books hit −100 on near-flat pairs; a maxed crowd the price has not paid is fuel, not confirmation.
Fading sugar because the crowd is a record
The crowd bought a 10% rally on a deficit outlook; shorting a crowded, tight long tested 0 of 7 years.
Reading the corn selloff as the crowd being caught
Funds sold −51,381 before the WASDE; the bigger crop hit a crowd that was already leaving.
Why no trades here: a six-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at one- to eight-week holds, and shorting a crowded long was the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). This page displays; newcot (v2) decides.
Positioning against price, same week
How each crowd moved against the price in the same week (Tue 29 Sep → 6 Oct). Confirm means they agreed; diverge means the crowd was offside. Open a row for the read.
| Read | Market | Positioning move this week | Crowd | Price 29 Sep→6 Oct | Read | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR / AUD / GBP (dollar shorts) | EUR shorts +40,913 · AUD shorts +25,797, longs −9,552 · GBP shorts +10,399 | SHORT −100% ⚑ · −100% ⚑ · −92% ⚑ | −0.7% / 0.0% / +0.3% | Confirm | −0.4% / +0.1% / −0.2% | |
The dollar crowd grew for a third week, to +$35.3bn (+$10.0bn): the euro and aussie shorts both hit −100 records and the pound pressed to −92. The pairs barely moved — euro −0.7% to 1.1258, aussie flat, pound +0.3% — while DXY rose +0.5% to 101.85, then 102.11 since. Maximum crowd, minimal price. | ||||||
| USD/MXN (peso carry) | longs −16,734, shorts +24,967 — net −41,701 to a 52-week low | LONG +10% (was +48%) | +0.4% (peso) | Flat | −2.3% (peso) | |
The peso carry long lost −41,701 in one print, leaving +10,701, the smallest in a year — on a week the peso actually firmed (USD/MXN 17.98). Since the print USD/MXN jumped +2.3% to 18.40. | ||||||
| Sugar (Mar) | longs +30,758, shorts −3,420 — net to a RECORD | LONG +100% ⚑ (was +91%) | +10.5% | Confirm | −2.7% | |
The maxed crowd bought +34,178 more, to a record +252,514, as March sugar ran +10.5% to 20.82c on the deficit outlook and Brazil’s weaker output. Then −2.7% since to 20.25c. A record crowd being paid; its unwind is the tail. | ||||||
| NatGas | shorts +9,974, longs −1,764 — net to a RECORD | SHORT −100% ⚑ (was −99%) | +3.4% | Diverge | +1.6% | |
The short that doubled last week pressed again, to −144,537 — a record — INTO a +3.4% week to $3.114, then +1.6% since to $3.164, above every SMA. Storage sits ~2.4% above the 5-year average, which backs the crowd; the price does not. | ||||||
| UST Ultra 10Y / 10Y / 5Y / Ultra Bond | AM +84,501 · +51,608 · +62,607 · CUT −77,453 | LONG +100% ⚑ · +100% ⚑ · +76% ⚑ · +63% | 0bp / +5bp / −1bp / +10bp (30Y) | Diverge | −4bp / −4bp / −2bp / −6bp | |
Asset managers kept buying the 10-year sector — Ultra 10Y to a record, 10Y holding its record — while cutting the long end as the curve steepened: 2Y −8bp, 30Y +10bp to 5.66%. The 30Y auction cleared at 5.618% on 8-Oct, the highest since 2000; since the print the 30Y −6bp. | ||||||
| S&P / Nasdaq / Russell | S&P shorts PRESSED −41,902 · Nasdaq covered +7,044 · Russell covered +9,237 | SHORT −79% ⚑ · −27% · −92% ⚑ | +1.9% / +2.9% / +0.8% | Diverge | −0.1% / −1.1% / −0.8% | |
Leveraged funds pressed the S&P short (rel −71 → −79) INTO a +1.9% week to 7,819 while covering the Nasdaq and Russell with the rally. Since the print the tape stalled: S&P flat, Nasdaq −1.1%, Russell −0.8%. | ||||||
| Corn / Beans / Meal | corn longs −46,594 · beans +11,508 · meal −2,277 | LONG +80% ⚑ · +97% ⚑ · +99% ⚑ | −2.7% / +0.4% / −1.2% | Confirm | −5.6% / −1.4% / +3.3% | |
The corn crowd sold a seventh of its book as corn fell −2.7% to $5.08 — then the 9-Oct WASDE raised the corn yield to 181.2 bu/ac and ending stocks by 282m bushels: corn −5.6% since. Beans bought to rel 97 on a flat week and slipped −1.4% since on a 53.1 bu/ac soy yield. | ||||||
| WTI / Brent / RBOB | WTI longs −30,675 · Brent −1,646 · RBOB longs +4,355 | LONG +48% · +15% · +98% ⚑ | +0.1% / +4.6% / +4.5% | Confirm* | +1.3% / +2.8% / −0.8% | |
The WTI crowd cut a third of its book on a flat week at $89.44 and dropped under the flag, while December Brent rose +4.6% back over $100 and the gasoline crowd added to rel 98. Since the print WTI +1.3%, Brent +2.8% to $103.44. | ||||||
| Copper / Gold / Palladium | copper longs −15,258 · gold longs −4,610, shorts +4,721 · palladium shorts +2,168 | LONG +74% ⚑ · +77% ⚑ · SHORT −100% ⚑ | +0.7% / +0.2% / −3.2% | Diverge | +1.0% / +1.0% / −1.3% | |
Copper’s record long lost a fifth (rel 95 → 74) into a firm price; gold’s crowd deleveraged on a flat week; palladium’s record short pressed again and was paid. Since the print copper +1.0%, gold +1.0%, palladium −1.3%. | ||||||
| Cocoa / Hogs | cocoa shorts −3,715 · hogs longs +7,820, shorts −1,311 | SHORT −48% · −82% ⚑ | +5.4% / +1.0% | Confirm | −0.6% / −3.6% | |
Two crowded shorts covered into rising prices: cocoa (rel −69 → −48) as it rose +5.4%, hogs (rel −100 → −82) on a +1.0% week. Since the print neither held — cocoa flat, December hogs −3.6% to $67.83. | ||||||
| LME Lead / Zinc / Aluminium (as of 2 Oct) | lead funds −11,638 · zinc −7,429 · aluminium −16,176 | SHORT −100% ⚑ · LONG +70% ⚑ · +66% | −4.9% / −5.6% / −5.3% | Confirm | +2.0% / +2.7% / −1.7% | |
The London complex fell ~5% in the week to Fri 2 Oct and every fund book sold with it: lead’s short reloaded to a record −100 a week after it covered, zinc and aluminium trimmed. Since then lead +2.0%, zinc +2.7%, aluminium −1.7%. | ||||||
| VIX | leveraged funds +12,961 — net short → net long | LONG +54% (was −8%) | −6.3% | Diverge | −1.1% | |
Leveraged funds flipped to a small net long (+5,494) as VIX fell −6.3% to 15.02 — bought vol into a falling index. The 52-week range is thin, so rel +54 is a base effect. VIX −1.1% since to 14.85. | ||||||
Since the print: technicalsA secondary timing layer, 6 → 12 Oct. Not the thesis.
| Read | Asset | Now | Trend | RSI 14 | ATR % | TradingView rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NatGas | $3.164 | ▲ up | 58 | 3.9% | Strong buy | |
A record short (rel −100; shorts +9,974) INTO a +3.4% COT week to $3.114 — then +1.6% since, above its 20-, 50- and 200-day. Buy-rated, ADX 27. Storage ~2.4% above the 5-year average backs the crowd. | ||||||
| US 2Y / 10Y / 30Y yield | 4.79% / 5.24% / 5.60% | ▬ flat | — | — | – | |
The curve steepened in the COT week — 2Y −8bp to 4.80%, 10Y +5bp to 5.29%, 30Y +10bp to 5.66% — and asset managers bought the 10-year sector to records while cutting the long end. The 30Y auction cleared at 5.618% on 8-Oct, the highest since 2000; since the print the 30Y −6bp to 5.60%. | ||||||
| US Dollar (DXY) | 102.11 | ▲ up | 68 | 0.5% | Buy | |
DXY rose +0.5% in the COT week to 101.85 and +0.3% since to 102.11, above every SMA — and the aggregate spec dollar long jumped to +$35.3bn (+$10.0bn), led by the euro (−$5.0bn) and aussie (−$2.5bn). | ||||||
| EUR/USD | 1.1216 | ▼ down | 28 | 0.5% | Sell | |
A record short (rel −87 → −100; shorts +40,913) as the euro fell −0.7% to 1.1258, then −0.4% since to 1.1216, below every SMA, ADX 51. Crowded and being paid. | ||||||
| AUD/USD | 0.6993 | ▬ flat | 42 | 0.6% | Sell | |
A record short (rel −75 → −100; shorts +25,797) built on a flat aussie at 0.6983, flat since at 0.6993, just under its 20- and 50-day. | ||||||
| USD/MXN | 18.40 | ▲ up | 76 | 1.0% | Buy | |
The carry long nearly vanished (rel 48 → 10; net −41,701) on a flat COT week — then USD/MXN +2.3% since to 18.40, RSI 76, ADX 56. | ||||||
| Gold | $4,231 | ▬ flat | 45 | 2.0% | Sell | |
Longs −4,610, shorts +4,721 (rel 83 → 77) on a flat COT week at $4,187, then +1.0% since, still under its 20-, 50- and 200-day. | ||||||
| Copper | $6.717 | ▲ up | 55 | 2.0% | Strong buy | |
A fifth of the record long left (rel 95 → 74; longs −15,258) into a +0.7% week — then +1.0% since, above every SMA. Buy-rated. | ||||||
| Palladium | $1,160 | ▼ down | 35 | 3.8% | Sell | |
The record short pressed again (shorts +2,168) as palladium fell −3.2%, then −1.3% since, under every SMA. Crowded fuel, still being paid. | ||||||
| WTI crude (Nov) | $90.58 | ▬ flat | 48 | 4.5% | Neutral | |
Longs −30,675 (rel 71 → 48) on a flat COT week at $89.44, then +1.3% since — under its 20-day ($93.29), above the 50- and 200-day. ADX 16, no trend. | ||||||
| Brent (Dec) | $103.44 | ▲ up | 55 | 4.3% | Buy | |
December Brent rose +4.6% in the COT week to $100.58 and +2.8% since to $103.44, above every SMA. A thin spec book (rel 15). | ||||||
| Soybeans | $12.85 | ▬ flat | 47 | 1.6% | Neutral | |
Near-record crowd (rel 93 → 97; +11,508) on a flat COT week, then −1.4% since as USDA raised the soy yield to 53.1 bu/ac. Under its 20-day. | ||||||
| Corn | $4.7975 | ▼ down | 33 | 2.5% | Sell | |
Longs −46,594 (rel 92 → 80) as corn fell −2.7% — then −5.6% since after the WASDE raised the yield to 181.2 bu/ac and ending stocks by 282m bushels. Under its 20- and 50-day, ADX 31. | ||||||
| Sugar (Mar) | 20.25c | ▲ up | 69 | 3.2% | Strong buy | |
A record crowd (rel 100; +34,178) as March sugar ran +10.5% in the COT week to 20.82c, then −2.7% since. RSI 69, ADX 45, above every SMA. | ||||||
| Cocoa | $5,665 | ▬ flat | 49 | 5.3% | Buy | |
The flagged short covered (rel −69 → −48; shorts −3,715) as cocoa rose +5.4%, then flat since, on its 20-day, under the 50-day. | ||||||
| Lean Hogs (Dec) | $67.83 | ▼ down | 28 | 2.4% | Strong sell | |
The record short covered (rel −100 → −82) on a +1.0% COT week — then −3.6% since, under every SMA, RSI 28, ADX 41. The cover has not lifted the price. | ||||||
| S&P 500 | 7,812 | ▲ up | 60 | 0.9% | Buy | |
Shorts pressed −41,902 (rel −71 → −79) INTO a +1.9% COT week to 7,819, flat since, above its 20- and 50-day. ADX 10 — no trend. | ||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | 30,883 | ▲ up | 61 | 1.2% | Buy | |
Shorts covered +7,044 (rel −27) as the index rose +2.9% to 31,225, then −1.1% since. Buy-rated. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 | 2,807 | ▼ down | 38 | 1.2% | Sell | |
The record short covered +9,237 (rel −100 → −92) on a +0.8% COT week — then −0.8% since, under its 20- and 50-day, ADX 38. | ||||||
| VIX | 14.85 | ▼ down | 45 | 8.1% | Strong sell | |
Leveraged funds went net long (+12,961, rel −8 → +54) as VIX fell −6.3% to 15.02, then −1.1% since, under every SMA. | ||||||
Every contract
The full data by asset class, numbers first. Positioning to Tuesday 6 Oct 2026, self-pulled from the CFTC and the LME. Open a class, then a row for its read.
CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated, managed money. Price is the same COT week 29 Sep→6 Oct. WTI, gasoline and diesel use the November contracts, Brent December, sugar March and hogs December across both windows; since-print runs to the 12-Oct early session (cash indices to 9 Oct).
| Read | Contract | Net | Crowd | Flow (gross legs) | Price 29 Sep→6 Oct | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY · the natgas short pressed to a record; the WTI crowd dropped under the flag as Brent held $100 | |||||||
| WTI (NYMEX) | +53,598 | LONG 48% | L −30,675 / S −4,681 | +0.1% | +1.3% | Tight, never short | |
FLAT — net −25,994 (rel 71 → 48) on a flat November WTI week at $89.44, then +1.3% since to $90.58. Under the flag now; Hormuz flows are still curtailed and Brent is over $100, so the short veto holds at partial strength. | |||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +97,086 | LONG 98% ⚑ | L +4,355 / S +1,455 | +4.5% | −0.8% | Unwind tail | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — net +2,900 (rel 95 → 98) as November gasoline rose +4.5% to $3.273, then −0.8% since. Near-maxed and adding. | |||||||
| NY Harbor ULSD | +11,427 | LONG 30% | L −4,156 / S −2,638 | +1.3% | +1.0% | Crowd long | |
DIVERGE — net −1,518 (rel 33 → 30) into a +1.3% diesel week to $4.569, then +1.0% since. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +3,357 | LONG 15% | L −1,646 / S −817 | +4.6% | +2.8% | No crowd | |
DIVERGE — net −829 (rel 19 → 15) as December Brent rose +4.6% to $100.58, then +2.8% since to $103.44. A thin book; no crowd. | |||||||
| NatGas | −144,537 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | L −1,764 / S +9,974 | +3.4% | +1.6% | Squeeze fuel | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — a record short (net −11,738, rel −99 → −100) INTO a +3.4% week to $3.114, then +1.6% since to $3.164. Crowded fuel on a rising price; storage above average backs the crowd. | |||||||
| PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · copper’s record long lost a fifth; palladium’s record short pressed again | |||||||
| Copper (HG) | +61,134 | LONG 74% ⚑ | L −15,258 / S +1,666 | +0.7% | +1.0% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — net −16,924 (rel 95 → 74) into a +0.7% week to $6.65, then +1.0% since to $6.717. A fifth of the record left; the mine losses under it are still real. | |||||||
| Gold | +110,987 | LONG 77% ⚑ | L −4,610 / S +4,721 | +0.2% | +1.0% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
FLAT ⚑ — net −9,331 (rel 83 → 77) on a flat week at $4,187, then +1.0% since to $4,231. Crowded, deleveraging. | |||||||
| Steel HRC | +6,788 | LONG 54% | L −1,060 / S −270 | — | — | No crowd | |
FLAT — rel 60 → 54. No tradeable price series. | |||||||
| Platinum | +8,475 | LONG 50% | L +365 / S +146 | +0.5% | −0.2% | Crowd long | |
FLAT — net +219 (rel 43 → 50) on a +0.5% week to $1,709, flat since. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Silver | +7,528 | LONG 29% | L −429 / S −343 | +0.7% | −0.1% | Crowd long | |
FLAT — net −86 (rel 28 → 29) on a +0.7% week to $61.59, flat since. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Aluminum (COMEX) | −118 | SHORT 19% | L −75 / S 0 | — | — | No crowd | |
A 118-lot book. Rel is noise here. | |||||||
| Palladium | −9,385 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | L +745 / S +2,168 | −3.2% | −1.3% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — the record short pressed again (net −1,423, rel −100) as palladium fell −3.2% to $1,174, then −1.3% since. Crowded fuel, still being paid. | |||||||
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS · corn’s crowd sold before USDA raised the crop; beans bought toward a record | |||||||
| Soybean Meal | +205,301 | LONG 99% ⚑ | L −2,050 / S +227 | −1.2% | +3.3% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −2,277 (rel 100 → 99) as meal fell −1.2% to $354.8, then +3.3% since to $366.4. Maxed and holding. | |||||||
| Soybeans | +258,066 | LONG 97% ⚑ | L +9,067 / S −2,441 | +0.4% | −1.4% | Unwind tail | |
FLAT ⚑ — net +11,508 (rel 93 → 97) on a flat week at $13.03, then −1.4% since as USDA raised the soy yield to 53.1 bu/ac. Near-record and adding. | |||||||
| Corn | +329,839 | LONG 80% ⚑ | L −46,594 / S +4,787 | −2.7% | −5.6% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −51,381 (rel 92 → 80) as corn fell −2.7% to $5.08, then −5.6% since to $4.80 after the WASDE raised the yield to 181.2 bu/ac. Crowded, leaving with the price. | |||||||
| Soybean Oil | +93,518 | LONG 56% | L +5,764 / S −4,190 | +2.3% | −3.4% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↑ — net +9,954 (rel 50 → 56) as bean oil rose +2.3% to 69.91c, then −3.4% since. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Wheat (KCBT · HRW) | +23,253 | LONG 48% | L −2,236 / S +5,188 | +1.8% | −5.4% | Crowd long | |
DIVERGE — net −7,424 (rel 63 → 48) into a +1.8% week to $7.56, then −5.4% since to $7.15. No crowd now. | |||||||
| Wheat (CBOT · SRW) | −28,830 | SHORT 25% | L +4,207 / S +10,928 | +1.7% | −5.4% | No crowd | |
DIVERGE — net −6,721 (rel −19 → −25) into a +1.7% week to $7.04, then −5.4% since. A small short building; no crowd. | |||||||
| SOFTS · sugar’s crowd bought a record into a 10% rally; cocoa’s short covered | |||||||
| Sugar (Mar) | +252,514 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +30,758 / S −3,420 | +10.5% | −2.7% | Unwind tail | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — a record (net +34,178, rel 91 → 100) as March sugar rose +10.5% to 20.82c, then −2.7% since to 20.25c. A maxed crowd being paid. | |||||||
| Cotton | +57,118 | LONG 57% | L −9,979 / S +740 | +3.0% | −0.8% | Crowd long | |
DIVERGE — net −10,719 (rel 67 → 57) into a +3.0% week to 81.21c, then −0.8% since. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Coffee (Arabica) | +19,036 | LONG 38% | L +2,472 / S −358 | +5.2% | −5.7% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↑ — net +2,830 (rel 32 → 38) as arabica rose +5.2% to $3.045, then −5.7% since to $2.870. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −11,052 | SHORT 48% | L +1,255 / S −3,715 | +5.4% | −0.6% | Squeeze firing | |
CONFIRM↑ — the short covered (net +4,970, rel −69 → −48) as cocoa rose +5.4% to $5,700, flat since. Fuel being spent. | |||||||
| LIVESTOCK · the record hog short started to cover, then hogs fell again; windows use December hogs | |||||||
| Live Cattle | +50,695 | LONG 37% | L −1,705 / S +793 | +1.5% | +1.3% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — net −2,498 (rel 39 → 37) into a +1.5% week to $224.10, then +1.3% since. A thin long crowd against a record-low herd. | |||||||
| Feeder Cattle | +9,386 | LONG 35% | L +1,598 / S +378 | +2.3% | +1.1% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM↑ — net +1,220 (rel 30 → 35) as feeders rose +2.3% to $332.68, then +1.1% since. Same scarcity backdrop. | |||||||
| Lean Hogs | −41,504 | SHORT 82% ⚑ | L +7,820 / S −1,311 | +1.0% | −3.6% | Squeeze firing | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — the record short covered (net +9,131, rel −100 → −82) on a +1.0% week to $70.38, then −3.6% since to $67.83. The cover has not lifted the price. | |||||||
Base metals, London (LME)Investment funds, as of Fri 2 Oct (London week 25 Sep→2 Oct). Change is one week against the 25-Sep file.
| Read | Metal | Funds net | Crowd | Flow | Price 25 Sep→2 Oct | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc | +43,980 | LONG 70% ⚑ | Δnet −7,429 wk | −5.6% | +2.7% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of Fri 2 Oct. Funds −7,429 to +43,980 (rel 82 → 70) as zinc fell −5.6% in the London week 25 Sep→2 Oct to $3,772 — then +2.7% since to $3,873. A fourth week of trimming; just over the flag. | |||||||
| Aluminium | +130,234 | LONG 66% | Δnet −16,176 wk | −5.3% | −1.7% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM — as of 2 Oct. Funds −16,176 to +130,234 (rel 74 → 66) as aluminium fell −5.3% to $3,085, then −1.7% since to $3,034. Dropped under the flag. | |||||||
| Nickel | +6,768 | LONG 17% | Δnet −6,047 wk | −4.4% | 0.0% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM — as of 2 Oct. Funds −6,047 (rel 33 → 17) as nickel fell −4.4% to $15,438, flat since. No crowd. | |||||||
| Lead | −33,593 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | Δnet −11,638 wk | −4.9% | +2.0% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 2 Oct. The short reloaded to a record (−11,638 to −33,593, rel −85 → −100) as lead fell −4.9% to $1,814 — then +2.0% since to $1,849. Crowded fuel, being paid in the week. | |||||||
CurrenciesLegacy non-commercial, per currency (blue means speculators are short that currency). The USD row is the implied mirror.
| Read | Currency | Pair | Net | Change | Crowd | Pair 29 Sep→6 Oct | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | EUR/USD | −99,332 | −36,076 | −100% | −0.7% | −0.4% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
A record short: shorts +40,913, longs +4,837 (rel −87 → −100) as the euro fell −0.7% in the COT week to 1.1258 and −0.4% since to 1.1216, below every SMA, RSI 28, with eurozone strains in France and Germany in the headlines. Crowded and being paid. | ||||||||
| AUD | AUD/USD | −98,588 | −35,349 | −100% | 0.0% | +0.1% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
A record short: shorts +25,797, longs −9,552 (rel −75 → −100) on a flat aussie week at 0.6983, then 0.6993 since. Maximum fuel with the price unmoved. | ||||||||
| GBP | GBP/USD | −97,611 | −6,536 | −92% | +0.3% | −0.2% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
Shorts +10,399, longs +3,863 (rel −86 → −92) on a +0.3% pound week to 1.3274, then 1.3250 since, below every SMA. Crowded, near the record. | ||||||||
| CAD | USD/CAD | −90,163 | −11,492 | −50% | −0.1% | −0.3% | Crowd short | |
Shorts +17,554 (rel −44 → −50) on a flat loonie (USD/CAD 1.4189 → 1.4207), then 1.4253 since, RSI 69 on the pair. A third week of building. | ||||||||
| CHF | USD/CHF | −23,740 | +877 | −54% | +0.3% | +0.3% | Crowd short | |
Both legs up (rel −56 → −54) on a +0.3% franc week (USD/CHF 0.8339 → 0.8316), then 0.8294 since. Not crowded. | ||||||||
| NZD | NZD/USD | −29,346 | −12,031 | −45% | −0.3% | −0.1% | Crowd short | |
Shorts +16,514 (rel −27 → −45) as the kiwi eased −0.3% to 0.5623, then 0.5616 since, RSI 33. | ||||||||
| JPY | USD/JPY | +62,325 | +6,885 | +52% | −0.5% | 0.0% | Crowd long | |
Longs +14,102, shorts +7,217 (rel 46 → 52) as the yen eased −0.5% (USD/JPY 157.28 → 158.09), flat since at 158.11. The September long stopped draining. | ||||||||
| MXN | USD/MXN | +10,701 | −41,701 | +10% | +0.4% | −2.3% | No crowd | |
Longs −16,734, shorts +24,967 (rel 48 → 10) on a week the peso firmed +0.4% (USD/MXN 18.04 → 17.98) — then USD/MXN +2.3% since to 18.40. The carry long is at a 52-week low and nearly gone. | ||||||||
| USD | DXY basket | +$35.3bn | +$10.0bn | — | +0.5% | +0.3% | No crowd | |
The aggregate spec dollar long jumped to +$35.3bn (+$10.0bn) — the euro (−$5.0bn), aussie (−$2.5bn), peso (−$1.2bn) and loonie (−$0.8bn) books all sold — as DXY rose +0.5% in the COT week to 101.85 and +0.3% since to 102.11. | ||||||||
Rates, equities and VIXTFF. Rates through asset managers (real money); equities and VIX through leveraged funds.
Rates, asset managers
| Read | Contract | AM net | Crowd | Yield change, week | Since | Now | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y | +2,828k | 100% | +5 bp | −4 bp | 5.24% | Unwind tail | |
Still the record: AM +51,608 (rel 100) INTO a +5bp COT week for the 10Y to 5.29% — then −4bp since to 5.24%. A maxed crowd still buying. | |||||||
| Ultra 10Y | +781k | 100% | +5 bp | −4 bp | — | Unwind tail | |
A record: AM +84,501 (rel 94 → 100). The 10-year sector is the one the crowd keeps adding. | |||||||
| UST 5Y | +2,914k | 76% | −1 bp | −2 bp | 5.02% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM +62,607 (rel 74 → 76) on a flat 5Y at 5.04%, then 5.02% since. Crowded and adding. | |||||||
| UST Bond | +406k | 68% | +10 bp | −6 bp | 5.60% | Crowd long | |
AM −31,328 (rel 73 → 68) as the 30Y rose +10bp to 5.66% — then −6bp since to 5.60% after the 8-Oct auction cleared at 5.618%, the highest since 2000. Dropped under the flag. | |||||||
| UST 2Y | +1,679k | 65% | −8 bp | −1 bp | 4.79% | Crowd long | |
AM +40,609 (rel 63 → 65) as the 2Y fell −8bp to 4.80%, flat since at 4.79%. | |||||||
| Ultra Bond | +756k | 63% | +10 bp | −6 bp | — | Crowd long | |
AM −77,453 (rel 70 → 63), the biggest long-end cut, as the curve steepened. Mirrors the 30Y; under the flag. | |||||||
Equity indices, leveraged funds
| Read | Index | Lev net | Change | Crowd | Price, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | −105k | +9k | −92% | +0.8% | −0.8% | Squeeze firing | |
The record short covered +9,237 (net −105,317, rel −100 → −92) as the Russell rose +0.8% to 2,830 — then −0.8% since to 2,807. Still the most crowded equity short. | |||||||
| S&P 500 | −416k | −42k | −79% | +1.9% | −0.1% | Squeeze fuel | |
Shorts pressed −41,902 (rel −71 → −79) INTO a +1.9% COT week to 7,819, flat since at 7,812. A crowded short adding into a rising index. | |||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | −27k | +7k | −27% | +2.9% | −1.1% | Crowd short | |
Covered +7,044 (rel −34 → −27) as the index rose +2.9% to 31,225, then −1.1% since to 30,883. Offside, not crowded. | |||||||
| MSCI EM | +46k | +13k | 27% | +1.3% | −2.2% | Crowd long | |
Funds +12,636 (rel 19 → 27) as EM rose +1.3% to 68.27, then −2.2% since. The only equity long. | |||||||
| Dow (DJIA) | −2k | +3k | −7% | +0.3% | +0.3% | No crowd | |
Covered +3,492 (rel −20 → −7) on a +0.3% Dow week to 51,526, then 51,660 since. No crowd. | |||||||
Volatility, VIX
| Read | Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Crowd | VIX change, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | +5.5k | +71.7k | +54% | −6.3% | −1.1% | Crowd long | |
Leveraged funds bought +12,961 and went net long (net −7,467 → +5,494, rel −8 → +54) as VIX fell −6.3% in the COT week to 15.02 — then −1.1% since to 14.85. Dealers hold +71,707. A small book against a thin 52-week range: a base effect, not a crowd. | |||||||