The record natgas short covered into a 5% rally
Shorts −9,603, longs +8,453: net +18,056 (rel −100 → −88) as natgas rose +5.4% to $3.283 — then −5.1% since to $3.116. Fuel spent, and the rally gave it back.
What changed
How the conclusions moved since the 6-Oct print. Open a card for the why.
FX · the dollarCrowd short ⚑Crowd short ⚑The pound short joined the records; dollar long $44.5bn
Last week the euro and aussie shorts hit −100 and the dollar long jumped to +$35.3bn. This week the pound joined them (−92 → −100), the kiwi pressed −45 → −72, and the euro book grew another −38,241: +$44.5bn. The pairs moved under 1%; since the print the euro and pound firmed.
Energy · natgasSqueeze fuelSqueeze firingThe record natgas short covered into a 5% rally
Last week the short pressed to a −100 record into a rising price. This week it covered (shorts −9,603, longs +8,453; rel −88) as natgas rose +5.4% to $3.283 — then gave back −5.1% since. The fuel flagged last week was spent.
GrainsCrowd long ⚑Crowd longCorn’s crowd dumped 83,414 and dropped under the flag
Last week funds sold −51,381 before USDA raised the crop. This week they sold −83,414 more (rel 80 → 59) as corn fell −5.0% on the 181.2 bu/ac yield; both wheats fell 5–6%. Beans trimmed to rel 94 even as China returned as a buyer.
Equities · volSqueeze fuelCrowd short ⚑Shorts covered before the tech selloff; VIX +31% since
Last week the S&P short pressed into a rally and funds went small net long VIX. This week they covered the Russell and Nasdaq into falling prices and sold the vol long (rel 54 → 11). Since the print, the AI-debt selloff: Nasdaq −4.5%, VIX +30.8% to 19.98.
Energy · crudeTight, never shortTight, never shortWTI shorts added as crude ran to $99
Last week the WTI crowd cut a third and dropped under the flag. This week longs −6,380 and shorts +6,644 (rel 48 → 36) INTO a +5.3% week; then +5.2% since to $99.02 on a big crude draw and fresh Hormuz attacks. Brent reached $109.86.
Livestock · hogsSqueeze firingSqueeze fuelThe hog short reloaded a week after covering
Last week the record short covered to −82 and hogs slipped after. This week shorts +5,604 took it back to −96 as December hogs fell −3.3% to $68.03, then −1.6% since. The squeeze did not hold.
The biggest positioning shifts
Last print This print, on the same −100 to +100 scale
VIXVol
−43
Leveraged funds sold −4,389 as VIX edged +1.7% — then VIX +30.8% since to 19.98.
NZDFX
−27
Shorts +14,453, longs −3,202 (net −17,655) as the kiwi eased −0.2%. Newly crowded.
CornGrains
−21
Longs −63,005, shorts +20,409 (net −83,414) as corn fell −5.0%. Dropped under the flag.
Lean HogsLivestock
−14
Shorts +5,604 (net −7,113) as hogs fell −3.3%. The short reloaded.
NatGasEnergy
+12
Shorts −9,603, longs +8,453 (net +18,056) as natgas rose +5.4%. The record short covered.
Positioning risk — where the tails are
Crowded shorts still pressing are squeeze fuel; crowded longs still adding carry an unwind tail; tight markets are never shorted. These are flags for exposure and stops.
Squeeze fuelCrowded shorts still pressing. Long-biased.
EUR · GBP · AUD (vs USD)
EUR −100 ⚑ (net −38,241), GBP −92 → −100 ⚑ (shorts +8,279), AUD −100 ⚑ (shorts +16,962); dollar long +$44.5bn
Three record currency shorts on pairs that moved under 1%. Since the print the euro +0.4% and pound +0.5%: maximum fuel, price not paying it.
NZD · Lean Hogs
Kiwi −45 → −72 ⚑ (shorts +14,453); hogs −82 → −96 ⚑ (shorts +5,604) as hogs fell −3.3%
A newly crowded kiwi short and a hog short that reloaded a week after covering. Hogs are being paid; the kiwi firmed +0.7% since.
Palladium · S&P 500
Palladium −100 ⚑ (shorts +2,133) as it fell −4.0%; S&P −79 → −78 ⚑ (net +5,391)
The record palladium short is still being paid. The S&P short barely moved and the index fell −1.9% since: crowded, and paid for now.
Squeeze firingThe squeeze is in progress: fuel being spent.
NatGas
Rel −100 → −88 ⚑: shorts −9,603, longs +8,453 as natgas rose +5.4% to $3.283; −5.1% since
The record short covered into the rally: fuel spent. Then the rally gave it all back; −88 is still crowded.
Russell 2000 · LME Lead
Russell −92 → −80 (+13,670) into a −1.7% week; lead −100 → −95 (+1,573, as of 9 Oct) as lead rose +2.0%
Shorts kept covering. The Russell cover came into a falling index (−2.2% since): covering, not a squeeze.
Unwind tailCrowded longs still adding. Do not add; never a short.
Sugar
Rel 100 ⚑, another record: longs +6,622 as March sugar rose +1.4% to 21.11c; −1.2% since
A maxed crowd still adding and still being paid. Its unwind is the tail — never a short.
UST 10Y · Ultra 10Y · 5Y
10Y 100 ⚑ (+70,423), Ultra 10Y 100 ⚑ (+16,762), 5Y 76 → 78 ⚑ (+70,666); 10Y −14bp since to 5.08%
The duration crowd kept buying and was paid as yields fell after hot CPI met Fed patience. Maxed and adding.
Soybean Meal · RBOB
Meal 99 ⚑ (net −658); RBOB 98 → 99 ⚑ (net +822, both legs trimmed)
Maxed crowds holding at the top of their range. Gasoline −3.3% since; meal −1.7%.
Tight, never shortPhysically tight: the short veto. Long-biased.
WTI · Brent
WTI 48 → 36: longs −6,380, shorts +6,644 INTO +5.3%; +5.2% since to $99.02; Brent $109.86
Shorts added into a rising crude with Hormuz clearance ~68% of normal. The physical market backs the longs: the short veto holds.
Copper
Rel 74 ⚑ held (net −76) on a +1.2% week; −2.3% since to $6.574
The crowd steadied after last week’s cut. The mine losses still back it: a tail on the long, never a short.
Cattle · LME Zinc
Cattle 35, feeders 35 vs a record-low herd; zinc 70 → 64 (as of 9 Oct), now under the flag
Scarcity under thin or trimming crowds. The extremes are tails, not fades.
Do not force these
Reading the natgas cover as a new uptrend
Shorts covered into a +5.4% week, then natgas gave back −5.1%; fuel spent is not a trend.
Reading the record currency shorts as confirmation
The pound, euro and aussie all sit at −100 on pairs that moved under 1%; a crowd the price is not paying is fuel.
Reading the equity selloff as the shorts being paid
Funds covered the Russell and Nasdaq before the drop; only the S&P short, barely changed, rode it.
Why no trades here: a six-year, roll-drag-corrected test found v1’s direction calls dead at one- to eight-week holds, and shorting a crowded long was the single worst rule (0 of 7 years). This page displays; newcot (v2) decides.
Positioning against price, same week
How each crowd moved against the price in the same week (Tue 6 → 13 Oct). Confirm means they agreed; diverge means the crowd was offside. Open a row for the read.
| Read | Market | Positioning move this week | Crowd | Price 6→13 Oct | Read | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR / GBP / AUD / NZD (dollar shorts) | EUR net −38,241 · GBP shorts +8,279 · AUD shorts +16,962 · NZD shorts +14,453 | SHORT −100% ⚑ · −100% ⚑ · −100% ⚑ · −72% ⚑ | −0.5% / −0.1% / 0.0% / −0.2% | Flat | +0.4% / +0.5% / −0.5% / +0.7% | |
The dollar crowd grew for a fourth week, to +$44.5bn (+$9.2bn): the pound short joined the euro and aussie at −100 and the kiwi pressed from −45 to −72. The pairs barely moved. DXY +0.4% to 102.22, an 18-month high on 14 Oct, then −0.4% since as hot CPI met Fed patience. | ||||||
| NatGas | shorts −9,603, longs +8,453 — net +18,056 | SHORT −88% ⚑ (was −100%) | +5.4% | Confirm | −5.1% | |
The record short covered as natgas rose +5.4% to $3.283 — the fuel the board flagged last week, spent. Then −5.1% since to $3.116, even on a 67 Bcf build under the ~75 Bcf expected. Still crowded at −88. | ||||||
| Corn / Wheat HRW / Wheat SRW | corn longs −63,005, shorts +20,409 · HRW longs −9,354 · SRW shorts +5,880 | LONG +59% · +36% · SHORT −29% | −5.0% / −5.8% / −5.0% | Confirm | −1.8% / −1.2% / −1.3% | |
Funds dumped −83,414 corn (rel 80 → 59), the biggest cut on the board, as corn fell −5.0% to $4.83 on the 9-Oct WASDE’s 181.2 bu/ac yield. Both wheats fell 5–6% with it. Since the print the grains slid another 1–2% under harvest pressure. | ||||||
| WTI / Brent / Heating oil | WTI longs −6,380, shorts +6,644 · Brent −654 · ULSD +647 | LONG +36% · +12% · +31% | +5.3% / +5.1% / +8.0% | Diverge | +5.2% / +3.9% / −4.3% | |
The WTI crowd cut again — and shorts added +6,644 — INTO a +5.3% week to $94.14; then +5.2% since to $99.02 on a big US crude draw and fresh attacks near Hormuz, where clearance runs ~68% of normal. December Brent reached $109.86. | ||||||
| UST 2Y / 5Y / 10Y / Ultra 10Y | AM +116,779 · +70,666 · +70,423 · +16,762 | LONG +69% · +78% ⚑ · +100% ⚑ · +100% ⚑ | 0bp / −3bp / −7bp / −7bp | Confirm | −8bp / −13bp / −14bp / −14bp | |
Asset managers bought across the curve — the 2Y most — and held both 10-year records as yields eased. Since the print September CPI ran hot at 3.7% y/y, but Fed officials signalled patience: the 10Y fell −14bp to 5.08%. A maxed crowd being paid. | ||||||
| S&P / Nasdaq / Russell | S&P +5,391 · Nasdaq covered +4,847 · Russell covered +13,670 | SHORT −78% ⚑ · −22% · −80% ⚑ | −0.2% / −2.1% / −1.7% | Diverge | −1.9% / −4.5% / −2.2% | |
Leveraged funds kept covering the Russell (rel −92 → −80) and Nasdaq INTO falling prices and left the S&P short near −78. Then the AI-debt selloff: Nasdaq −4.5% since, its worst week since June; S&P −1.9%, Russell −2.2%. The covering came before the drop. | ||||||
| VIX | leveraged funds −4,389 — net +5,494 → +1,105 | LONG +11% (was +54%) | +1.7% | Diverge | +30.8% | |
Funds sold most of last week’s small vol long as VIX edged +1.7% to 15.28 — then VIX ran +30.8% since to 19.98, above 22 intraday for the first time in four months. Dealers hold +70,048. A thin book, not a crowd. | ||||||
| Sugar (Mar) | longs +6,622, shorts −413 — net to a new RECORD | LONG +100% ⚑ | +1.4% | Confirm | −1.2% | |
The maxed crowd added +7,035 to +259,549, another record, as March sugar rose +1.4% to 21.11c. Then −1.2% since to 20.85c. A record crowd still being paid; its unwind is the tail. | ||||||
| Lean Hogs / Palladium | hogs shorts +5,604 · palladium shorts +2,133 | SHORT −96% ⚑ · −100% ⚑ | −3.3% / −4.0% | Confirm | −1.6% / −0.8% | |
Two record shorts pressed and were paid: hogs reloaded from −82 to −96 a week after covering as December hogs fell −3.3%; palladium’s short added again as it fell −4.0%. Both slipped further since. | ||||||
| USD/MXN (peso carry) | longs −9,170, shorts −13,711 — net +4,541 | LONG +14% (was +10%) | −2.1% (peso) | Diverge | −0.6% (peso) | |
Both legs of the peso book shrank as USD/MXN jumped +2.1% to 18.36; it touched 18.60 on 14 Oct, the weakest peso since November 2025, then eased. The carry long stays near its 52-week low. | ||||||
| Gold / Silver / Platinum | gold net −3,898 · silver −1,909 · platinum −1,432 | LONG +74% ⚑ · +22% · +42% | −0.2% / −3.4% / −2.2% | Confirm | +0.1% / −3.7% / −2.3% | |
The precious crowds kept deleveraging: gold’s flagged long trimmed on a flat week, silver and platinum sold as they fell. Since the print gold flat at $4,181, silver −3.7%, platinum −2.3% — all under their 20-, 50- and 200-day. | ||||||
| LME Zinc / Aluminium / Lead (as of 9 Oct) | zinc funds −3,909 · aluminium −5,310 · lead +1,573 | LONG +64% · +63% · SHORT −95% ⚑ | +2.7% / −1.7% / +2.0% | Diverge | −3.7% / −0.9% / 0.0% | |
Zinc’s crowd trimmed a fifth week and dropped under the flag INTO a +2.7% London week; aluminium sold with its price; lead’s record short covered a little as lead rose +2.0%. Since 9 Oct zinc −3.7%, aluminium −0.9%, lead flat. | ||||||
Since the print: technicalsA secondary timing layer, 13 → 16 Oct. Not the thesis.
| Read | Asset | Now | Trend | RSI 14 | ATR % | TradingView rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.98 | ▲ up | 69 | 8.1% | Strong buy | |
Leveraged funds sold −4,389 (rel 54 → 11) as VIX rose +1.7% in the COT week to 15.28 — then +30.8% since to 19.98, above 22 intraday for the first time in four months, as AI-debt worries hit tech. Above every SMA. | ||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | 29,188 | ▼ down | 35 | 1.5% | Sell | |
Shorts covered +4,847 (rel −27 → −22) INTO a −2.1% COT week to 30,569 — then −4.5% since to 29,188, under its 20- and 50-day, its worst week since June as semis and CoreWeave fell on 16 Oct. | ||||||
| S&P 500 | 7,659 | ▼ down | 44 | 0.9% | Sell | |
The crowded short barely moved (+5,391, rel −79 → −78) on a flat COT week at 7,805 — then −1.9% since to 7,659, under its 20- and 50-day. A crowded short now being paid. | ||||||
| Russell 2000 | 2,721 | ▼ down | 32 | 1.3% | Strong sell | |
The record short covered again (+13,670, rel −92 → −80) INTO a −1.7% COT week to 2,783 — then −2.2% since, under every SMA, RSI 32, ADX 41. | ||||||
| US 2Y / 10Y / 30Y yield | 4.72% / 5.08% / 5.43% | ▼ down | — | — | – | |
Yields fell in the COT week — 10Y −7bp to 5.22%, 30Y −10bp to 5.56% — and again since (−8 to −14bp). September CPI ran hot at 3.7% y/y, but Fed officials signalled patience and October hike odds fell back. Asset managers bought +116,779 2Y and held both 10-year records. | ||||||
| US Dollar (DXY) | 101.78 | ▬ flat | 56 | 0.5% | Buy | |
DXY rose +0.4% in the COT week to 102.22, hit an 18-month high of 102.94 on 14 Oct, and is −0.4% since at 101.78. The spec dollar long grew to +$44.5bn (+$9.2bn), led by the euro (−$5.2bn). | ||||||
| EUR/USD | 1.1239 | ▬ flat | 40 | 0.6% | Sell | |
Still a record short and bigger (net −38,241; shorts +18,150, longs −20,091) as the euro eased −0.5% to 1.1198 — then +0.4% since to 1.1239, under every SMA, ADX 52. | ||||||
| GBP/USD | 1.3322 | ▲ up | 52 | 0.6% | Neutral | |
Shorts +8,279 took the pound to a −100 record on a flat week at 1.3254 — then +0.5% since to 1.3322, back over its 20-day. A record crowd the price is not paying. | ||||||
| USD/MXN | 18.48 | ▲ up | 71 | 1.1% | Strong buy | |
USD/MXN +2.1% in the COT week to 18.36 and +0.6% since to 18.48, after touching 18.60 on 14 Oct, the weakest peso since November 2025. Both legs of the peso book cut; rel 10 → 14. RSI 71, ADX 60. | ||||||
| NatGas | $3.116 | ▬ flat | 52 | 4.5% | Buy | |
The record short covered (shorts −9,603, longs +8,453; rel −100 → −88) as natgas rose +5.4% to $3.283 — then −5.1% since to $3.116, back on its 20-day, even after a smaller-than-expected 67 Bcf storage build. | ||||||
| WTI crude (Nov) | $99.02 | ▲ up | 63 | 4.2% | Strong buy | |
Longs −6,380, shorts +6,644 (rel 48 → 36) INTO a +5.3% COT week to $94.14 — then +5.2% since to $99.02 on a big US crude draw and fresh attacks near Hormuz. Above every SMA. | ||||||
| Brent (Dec) | $109.86 | ▲ up | 64 | 3.9% | Strong buy | |
December Brent +5.1% in the COT week to $105.69 and +3.9% since to $109.86. Kpler puts Hormuz clearance at ~68% of its pre-war baseline. A thin spec book (rel 12). | ||||||
| Gold | $4,181 | ▬ flat | 44 | 2.0% | Sell | |
Longs −2,354, shorts +1,544 (rel 77 → 74) on a flat COT week at $4,177, flat since, still under its 20-, 50- and 200-day. | ||||||
| Copper | $6.574 | ▼ down | 46 | 2.0% | Sell | |
The crowd held at rel 74 (net −76) on a +1.2% week to $6.726 — then −2.3% since to $6.574, under its 20- and 50-day. | ||||||
| Corn | $4.7425 | ▼ down | 31 | 2.3% | Sell | |
Funds dumped −83,414 (longs −63,005, shorts +20,409; rel 80 → 59) as corn fell −5.0% to $4.8275 on the bigger WASDE crop — then −1.8% since under harvest pressure. RSI 31, ADX 32. | ||||||
| Soybeans | $12.61 | ▼ down | 39 | 1.6% | Sell | |
Longs −4,711, shorts +3,548 (rel 97 → 94) as beans fell −1.5% to $12.84 — then −1.8% since to $12.61 even as Chinese state buyers booked ~20 US cargoes; harvest 46% done. | ||||||
| Sugar (Mar) | 20.85c | ▲ up | 67 | 3.1% | Buy | |
The record crowd added +7,035 (rel 100) as March sugar rose +1.4% to 21.11c — then −1.2% since to 20.85c. RSI 67, ADX 48, above every SMA. | ||||||
| Lean Hogs (Dec) | $66.93 | ▼ down | 30 | 2.2% | Sell | |
The short reloaded (shorts +5,604; rel −82 → −96) as December hogs fell −3.3% to $68.03 — then −1.6% since, under every SMA, RSI 30, ADX 43. | ||||||
| Palladium | $1,119 | ▼ down | 34 | 3.9% | Strong sell | |
The record short pressed again (shorts +2,133) as palladium fell −4.0% to $1,127, then −0.8% since, under every SMA. | ||||||
Every contract
The full data by asset class, numbers first. Positioning to Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, self-pulled from the CFTC and the LME. Open a class, then a row for its read.
CommoditiesCFTC Disaggregated, managed money. Price is the same COT week 6→13 Oct. WTI, gasoline and diesel use the November contracts, Brent December, sugar March and hogs December across both windows; since-print runs to the 16-Oct close.
| Read | Contract | Net | Crowd | Flow (gross legs) | Price 6→13 Oct | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY · the record natgas short covered into a 5% rally; WTI shorts added as crude ran to $99 | |||||||
| WTI (NYMEX) | +40,574 | LONG 36% | L −6,380 / S +6,644 | +5.3% | +5.2% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — net −13,024 (rel 48 → 36) INTO a +5.3% November WTI week to $94.14, then +5.2% since to $99.02. Shorts added into the rally; Hormuz clearance at ~68% of normal keeps the short veto on. | |||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +97,908 | LONG 99% ⚑ | L −2,105 / S −2,927 | −0.7% | −3.3% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — net +822 (rel 98 → 99) as November gasoline eased −0.7% to $3.250, then −3.3% since to $3.144. Maxed, both legs trimmed. | |||||||
| NY Harbor ULSD | +12,074 | LONG 31% | L +1,145 / S +498 | +8.0% | −4.3% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↑ — net +647 (rel 30 → 31) as diesel rose +8.0% to $4.934, then −4.3% since. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +2,703 | LONG 12% | L −654 / S 0 | +5.1% | +3.9% | No crowd | |
DIVERGE — net −654 (rel 15 → 12) as December Brent rose +5.1% to $105.69, then +3.9% since to $109.86. A thin book; no crowd. | |||||||
| NatGas | −126,481 | SHORT 88% ⚑ | L +8,453 / S −9,603 | +5.4% | −5.1% | Squeeze firing | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — the record short covered (net +18,056, rel −100 → −88) as natgas rose +5.4% to $3.283, then −5.1% since to $3.116. Fuel spent; the rally gave it back. | |||||||
| PRECIOUS & COMEX METALS · the precious crowds kept trimming; palladium’s record short pressed again | |||||||
| Copper (HG) | +61,058 | LONG 74% ⚑ | L +807 / S +883 | +1.2% | −2.3% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — net −76 (rel 74) on a +1.2% week to $6.726, then −2.3% since to $6.574. The crowd held after last week’s cut; the mine losses under it are still real. | |||||||
| Gold | +107,089 | LONG 74% ⚑ | L −2,354 / S +1,544 | −0.2% | +0.1% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
FLAT ⚑ — net −3,898 (rel 77 → 74) on a flat week at $4,177, flat since at $4,181, under every SMA. Crowded, deleveraging. | |||||||
| Steel HRC | +6,363 | LONG 50% | L −692 / S −267 | — | — | No crowd | |
FLAT — rel 54 → 50. No tradeable price series. | |||||||
| Platinum | +7,043 | LONG 42% | L −1,525 / S −93 | −2.2% | −2.3% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −1,432 (rel 50 → 42) as platinum fell −2.2% to $1,671, then −2.3% since to $1,633. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Silver | +5,619 | LONG 22% | L −655 / S +1,254 | −3.4% | −3.7% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −1,909 (rel 29 → 22) as silver fell −3.4% to $59.53, then −3.7% since to $57.31. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Aluminum (COMEX) | −553 | SHORT 90% | L 0 / S +435 | — | — | No crowd | |
A 563-lot book. Rel is noise here. | |||||||
| Palladium | −10,699 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | L +819 / S +2,133 | −4.0% | −0.8% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — the record short pressed again (net −1,314, rel −100) as palladium fell −4.0% to $1,127, then −0.8% since. Crowded fuel, still being paid. | |||||||
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS · funds dumped 83,414 corn as the bigger crop landed; both wheats fell 5–6% | |||||||
| Soybean Meal | +204,643 | LONG 99% ⚑ | L −196 / S +462 | +2.4% | −1.7% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
DIVERGE ⚑ — net −658 (rel 99) as meal rose +2.4% to $363.2, then −1.7% since to $357.1. Maxed and holding. | |||||||
| Soybeans | +249,807 | LONG 94% ⚑ | L −4,711 / S +3,548 | −1.5% | −1.8% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — net −8,259 (rel 97 → 94) as beans fell −1.5% to $12.84, then −1.8% since to $12.61 despite ~20 China cargoes. Crowded, trimming. | |||||||
| Corn | +246,425 | LONG 59% | L −63,005 / S +20,409 | −5.0% | −1.8% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −83,414 (rel 80 → 59) as corn fell −5.0% to $4.83 after the WASDE’s 181.2 bu/ac yield, then −1.8% since to $4.74. Dropped under the flag. | |||||||
| Soybean Oil | +87,972 | LONG 52% | L −1,553 / S +3,993 | −2.7% | −1.3% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −5,546 (rel 56 → 52) as bean oil fell −2.7% to 68.02c, then −1.3% since. Sub-extreme. | |||||||
| Wheat (KCBT · HRW) | +17,345 | LONG 36% | L −9,354 / S −3,446 | −5.8% | −1.2% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −5,908 (rel 48 → 36) as HRW fell −5.8% to $7.12, then −1.2% since to $7.04. No crowd. | |||||||
| Wheat (CBOT · SRW) | −32,555 | SHORT 29% | L +2,155 / S +5,880 | −5.0% | −1.3% | No crowd | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −3,725 (rel −25 → −29) as SRW fell −5.0% to $6.69, then −1.3% since. A small short building; no crowd. | |||||||
| SOFTS · sugar’s crowd added to another record; coffee’s crowd sold before a 4% bounce | |||||||
| Sugar (Mar) | +259,549 | LONG 100% ⚑ | L +6,622 / S −413 | +1.4% | −1.2% | Unwind tail | |
CONFIRM↑ ⚑ — another record (net +7,035, rel 100) as March sugar rose +1.4% to 21.11c, then −1.2% since to 20.85c. A maxed crowd still adding. | |||||||
| Cotton | +58,025 | LONG 57% | L −389 / S −1,296 | −0.9% | −0.6% | Crowd long | |
DIVERGE — net +907 (rel 57) on a −0.9% week to 80.51c, then −0.6% since. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Coffee (Arabica) | +15,270 | LONG 30% | L −1,947 / S +1,819 | −3.9% | +4.4% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −3,766 (rel 38 → 30) as arabica fell −3.9% to $2.927, then +4.4% since to $3.056. Not a crowd. | |||||||
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −11,921 | SHORT 52% | L −1,218 / S −349 | +0.6% | −1.5% | Crowd short | |
DIVERGE — net −869 (rel −48 → −52) on a +0.6% week to $5,733, then −1.5% since to $5,645. The cover paused; sub-extreme. | |||||||
| LIVESTOCK · the hog short reloaded toward its record; windows use December hogs | |||||||
| Live Cattle | +48,218 | LONG 35% | L −4,839 / S −2,362 | +1.0% | +0.9% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — net −2,477 (rel 37 → 35) into a +1.0% week to $226.38, then +0.9% since to $228.35. A thin long crowd against a record-low herd. | |||||||
| Feeder Cattle | +9,339 | LONG 35% | L −38 / S +9 | −0.7% | +0.7% | Tight, never short | |
CONFIRM↓ — net −47 (rel 35) on a −0.7% week to $335.85, then +0.7% since. Same scarcity backdrop. | |||||||
| Lean Hogs | −48,617 | SHORT 96% ⚑ | L −1,509 / S +5,604 | −3.3% | −1.6% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM↓ ⚑ — the short reloaded (net −7,113, rel −82 → −96) as December hogs fell −3.3% to $68.03, then −1.6% since to $66.93. Crowded fuel, being paid. | |||||||
Base metals, London (LME)Investment funds, as of Fri 9 Oct (London week 2→9 Oct). Change is one week against the 2-Oct file.
| Read | Metal | Funds net | Crowd | Flow | Price 2→9 Oct | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinc | +40,071 | LONG 64% | Δnet −3,909 wk | +2.7% | −3.7% | Tight, never short | |
DIVERGE — as of Fri 9 Oct. Funds −3,909 to +40,071 (rel 70 → 64) INTO a +2.7% London week 2 Oct→9 Oct to $3,873 — then −3.7% since to $3,730. A fifth week of trimming; dropped under the flag. | |||||||
| Aluminium | +124,924 | LONG 63% | Δnet −5,310 wk | −1.7% | −0.9% | Crowd long | |
CONFIRM — as of 9 Oct. Funds −5,310 to +124,924 (rel 66 → 63) as aluminium fell −1.7% to $3,034, then −0.9% since to $3,005. Sub-extreme, trimming. | |||||||
| Nickel | +5,058 | LONG 13% | Δnet −1,711 wk | 0.0% | −1.7% | No crowd | |
FLAT — as of 9 Oct. Funds −1,711 to a 52-week low (rel 17 → 13) on a flat week at $15,434, then −1.7% since to $15,164. No crowd. | |||||||
| Lead | −32,020 | SHORT 95% ⚑ | Δnet +1,573 wk | +2.0% | 0.0% | Squeeze fuel | |
CONFIRM ⚑ — as of 9 Oct. The record short covered a little (+1,573 to −32,020, rel −100 → −95) as lead rose +2.0% to $1,849, flat since. Crowded fuel. | |||||||
CurrenciesLegacy non-commercial, per currency (blue means speculators are short that currency). The USD row is the implied mirror.
| Read | Currency | Pair | Net | Change | Crowd | Pair 6→13 Oct | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | EUR/USD | −137,573 | −38,241 | −100% | −0.5% | +0.4% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
Still a record short, and bigger: shorts +18,150, longs −20,091 (rel −100) as the euro eased −0.5% in the COT week to 1.1198 — then +0.4% since to 1.1239, under every SMA, ADX 52. The euro book alone is −$19.2bn. | ||||||||
| GBP | GBP/USD | −106,964 | −9,353 | −100% | −0.1% | +0.5% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
A record short: shorts +8,279, longs −1,074 (rel −92 → −100) on a flat pound week at 1.3254 — then +0.5% since to 1.3322, back over its 20-day. Maximum crowd, price not paying it. | ||||||||
| AUD | AUD/USD | −117,299 | −18,711 | −100% | 0.0% | −0.5% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
Still a record short, and bigger: shorts +16,962, longs −1,749 (rel −100) on a flat aussie at 0.6982 — then −0.5% since to 0.6945, under every SMA. The one record short the price has paid since. | ||||||||
| NZD | NZD/USD | −47,001 | −17,655 | −72% | −0.2% | +0.7% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
Shorts +14,453, longs −3,202 (rel −45 → −72) as the kiwi eased −0.2% to 0.5611 — then +0.7% since to 0.5648. Newly crowded. | ||||||||
| CAD | USD/CAD | −94,765 | −4,602 | −53% | −0.1% | +0.5% | Crowd short | |
Shorts +3,479 (rel −50 → −53) on a flat loonie (USD/CAD 1.4207 → 1.4216), then 1.4138 since. A fourth week of building, sub-extreme. | ||||||||
| CHF | USD/CHF | −22,078 | +1,662 | −50% | −0.1% | +1.0% | Crowd short | |
Shorts −2,033 (rel −54 → −50) on a flat franc week (USD/CHF 0.8316 → 0.8325), then 0.8240 since as the franc firmed +1.0%. Not crowded. | ||||||||
| JPY | USD/JPY | +50,207 | −12,118 | +42% | −0.1% | +0.2% | Crowd long | |
Shorts +13,006, longs +888 (rel 52 → 42) on a flat yen (USD/JPY 158.09 → 158.30), 157.98 since. The yen long resumed draining. | ||||||||
| MXN | USD/MXN | +15,242 | +4,541 | +14% | −2.1% | −0.6% | No crowd | |
Both legs cut — longs −9,170, shorts −13,711 (rel 10 → 14) — as USD/MXN jumped +2.1% to 18.36, touching 18.60 on 14 Oct, the weakest peso since November 2025; 18.48 since. The carry long stays near its 52-week low. | ||||||||
| USD | DXY basket | +$44.5bn | +$9.2bn | — | +0.4% | −0.4% | No crowd | |
The aggregate spec dollar long grew to +$44.5bn (+$9.2bn) — the euro (−$5.2bn), aussie (−$1.3bn), kiwi (−$1.0bn) and yen (−$1.0bn) books all sold — as DXY rose +0.4% in the COT week to 102.22, hit an 18-month high of 102.94 on 14 Oct, and is −0.4% since at 101.78. | ||||||||
Rates, equities and VIXTFF. Rates through asset managers (real money); equities and VIX through leveraged funds.
Rates, asset managers
| Read | Contract | AM net | Crowd | Yield change, week | Since | Now | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y | +2,899k | 100% | −7 bp | −14 bp | 5.08% | Unwind tail | |
Still the record: AM +70,423 (rel 100) as the 10Y fell −7bp to 5.22% — then −14bp since to 5.08% after hot CPI met Fed patience. A maxed crowd still buying, and being paid. | |||||||
| Ultra 10Y | +797k | 100% | −7 bp | −14 bp | — | Unwind tail | |
Still the record: AM +16,762 (rel 100). The 10-year sector stays the crowd’s home. | |||||||
| UST 5Y | +2,985k | 78% | −3 bp | −13 bp | 4.88% | Crowd long ⚑ | |
AM +70,666 (rel 76 → 78) as the 5Y eased −3bp to 5.01%, then −13bp since to 4.88%. Crowded and adding. | |||||||
| UST 2Y | +1,796k | 69% | 0 bp | −8 bp | 4.72% | Crowd long | |
AM +116,779, the biggest buy on the curve (rel 65 → 69), on a flat 2Y at 4.80% — then −8bp since to 4.72% as October hike odds fell back. | |||||||
| Ultra Bond | +776k | 65% | −10 bp | −14 bp | — | Crowd long | |
AM +20,733 (rel 63 → 65) as the 30Y fell −10bp to 5.56%. Adding again after last week’s cut; under the flag. | |||||||
| UST Bond | +392k | 65% | −10 bp | −14 bp | 5.43% | Crowd long | |
AM −14,094 (rel 68 → 65) as the 30Y fell −10bp to 5.56% — then −14bp since to 5.43%. Under the flag. | |||||||
Equity indices, leveraged funds
| Read | Index | Lev net | Change | Crowd | Price, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell 2000 | −92k | +14k | −80% | −1.7% | −2.2% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
The record short covered again +13,670 (net −91,647, rel −92 → −80) INTO a −1.7% week to 2,783 — then −2.2% since to 2,721. Covering into a falling index. | |||||||
| S&P 500 | −411k | +5k | −78% | −0.2% | −1.9% | Crowd short ⚑ | |
The crowded short barely moved (+5,391, rel −79 → −78) on a flat week at 7,805 — then −1.9% since to 7,659 as AI-debt worries hit tech. A crowded short now being paid. | |||||||
| Nasdaq-100 | −22k | +5k | −22% | −2.1% | −4.5% | Crowd short | |
Covered +4,847 (rel −27 → −22) INTO a −2.1% week to 30,569 — then −4.5% since to 29,188, the worst week since June. Offside covering, not crowded. | |||||||
| MSCI EM | +30k | −16k | 21% | −3.7% | −4.4% | Crowd long | |
Funds −15,946 (rel 27 → 21) as EM fell −3.7% to 65.74, then −4.4% since to 62.85. The only real equity long, shrinking. | |||||||
| Dow (DJIA) | +4k | +6k | 100% | +0.3% | +0.6% | No crowd | |
Covered +6,221 and flipped to a tiny net long (+4,327); rel +100 is a base effect on a near-zero book. Dow +0.3% to 51,675, then +0.6% since. No crowd. | |||||||
Volatility, VIX
| Read | Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Crowd | VIX change, week | Since | Crowd state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | +1.1k | +70.0k | +11% | +1.7% | +30.8% | No crowd | |
Leveraged funds sold −4,389 (net +5,494 → +1,105, rel 54 → 11) as VIX rose +1.7% in the COT week to 15.28 — then +30.8% since to 19.98 in the AI-debt selloff, above 22 intraday. Dealers hold +70,048. The small vol long was sold before the spike. | |||||||