The new Warsh Fed came in HAWKISH on 17-Jun — held at 3.50–3.75%, but the dots flipped to a hike and the PCE forecast was lifted to 3.6%. That re-armed the dollar and broke the metals-and-duration longs: the USD ripped (DXY 101, RSI 70), gold/silver/PGMs sold off together, the curve bear-flattened (2Y +15bp to 4.23%), and crude collapsed −8.6% as the Hormuz war-premium unwound on a US–Iran deal. The playbook flips back to long-dollar: ride USD/CAD (the ADX-49 trend monster) and press the glut shorts (corn at a record short, sugar) on rallies — but NEVER short the tight names (copper into the 30-Jun tariff decision, 75-yr-low-herd cattle), and don’t pre-position the coiled max-short JPY into intervention. Friday’s PCE is the detonator.
Every market as a share of its own 1-year positioning extreme, as of the Tue 16-Jun COT close. Green = the crowd was long; red = short. It read green at the top (record-long duration, long gold & copper) and red at the bottom (record-short equities, long dollar) — then the 17-Jun hawkish FOMC broke the green metals/duration leg and powered the dollar. Hover any tile for the current call.
Signed mean rel-to-max by class. The book leaned defensive into the FOMC — record-long duration & gold, record-short equities, long dollar. The hawkish Fed validated the dollar / short-equity-squeeze legs but broke the long-gold & long-duration leg (yields rose).
The COT positioning covers through Tue 16-Jun (the release was delayed to Mon 22-Jun by the Juneteenth holiday). Price action since — pulled live from TradingView, through the 17-Jun FOMC — confirmed the dollar and broke the metals: a hawkish Warsh debut. That changes several calls.
Into the print the crowd was record-long duration (Asset-Mgr rel +100% across the curve), long gold (+70%) and copper (+91%), record-short the S&P (Lev −100%) and record-short the yen (−100%), and net-long the dollar (+$29.3bn). That is the snapshot the heatmap shows — a defensive book leaning on lower yields & a softer dollar.
| Asset | Now | Trend | RSI(14) | Vol ATR% | TV rating | Since the COT close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar (DXY) | 101.0 | ▲ up | 70 | 0.5% | Buy | RIPPED post-FOMC, above all averages, Buy — the master long is BACK ON (was stalling). A break of ~99 would kill it. |
| USD/CAD | 1.4158 | ▲ up | 86 | 0.4% | Buy | The trend monster — ADX 49, above all averages, Buy. RSI 86 is NOT a sell in an ADX-49 trend; add on dips to ~1.396. |
| UST 2Y yield | 4.23% | ▲ up | — | — | — | JUMPED +15bp on the hawkish dots — the front-end led the bear-flatten; AM duration longs offside. |
| UST 10Y yield | 4.51% | ▲ up | — | — | — | Rose from ~4.44% — the systemic flag re-arms toward 4.60%. |
| UST 30Y yield | 4.94% | ▲ up | — | — | — | Back near 5.0% — the “30Y > 5%” trip is close again. |
| S&P 500 | 7,530 | ▲ up | 54 | 1.4% | Buy | Dipped −1.3% but held the UPTREND (above the 200-day 6,944), Buy — record Lev shorts = squeeze fuel. Don’t short it. |
| VIX | 17.3 | ▼ down | 48 | 12% | Sell | Shorts covered into the FOMC (+22k); rated Sell (vol falling). Green, no fragility. |
| Gold | $4,213 | ▼ down | 38 | 2.8% | Strong Sell | Sold off −2.7% on USD+yields up — below all averages, STRONG SELL, ADX 33. Long offside; CB floor = don’t short. |
| Silver | $65.2 | ▼ down | 36 | 5.8% | Strong Sell | Dropped −6.8% with the metals complex; Strong Sell. |
| Copper | $6.36 | ▬ flat | 50 | 2.5% | Neutral | Consolidating (ADX 10), Neutral — the scarcity long holds; the 30-Jun tariff decision is the catalyst. |
| WTI crude | $74.2 | ▼ down | 28 | 6.7% | Sell | COLLAPSED −8.6% — the Hormuz peace deal unwound the war premium; oversold, Sell, very volatile (ATR 6.7%). |
| Corn | $4.12 | ▼ down | 32 | 2.2% | Strong Sell | STRONG downtrend (ADX 41, Strong Sell) — record short, full runway. But oversold; sell the bounce to ~$4.30. |
| Soybean Oil | $66.9 | ▬ flat | 30 | 3.3% | Sell | Broke −9.0% through the 20/50-day, RSI 30 oversold — long now only above the 200-day ($59). |
| Cocoa | $4,588 | ▲ up | 69 | 5.2% | Buy | Squeezed +13.6% — specs still short and offside. Above the 20/50-day, below the 200-day ($4,839) = tactical bounce; take profit into spikes. |
| Sugar | 13.36c | ▼ down | 33 | 2.6% | Strong Sell | Below all averages, STRONG SELL, RSI 33 — the glut short is working; short rallies, don’t chase the low. |
| USD/JPY | 161.6 | ▲ up | 70 | 0.4% | Buy | RSI 70 overbought, above all averages, Buy — record short yen is the coiled spring, but intervention risk near 160–165. Don’t pre-position. |
| NZD/USD | 0.5710 | ▼ down | 34 | 0.9% | Strong Sell | Broke down, STRONG SELL — the short is confirmed (was armed). |
| GBP/USD | 1.3247 | ▼ down | 38 | 0.6% | Sell | Broke below ~1.332, Sell — the short fired (was armed). |
| Live Cattle | 247.4 | ▬ flat | 56 | 1.7% | Buy | Above the averages, Buy, +2.4% — the 75-yr-low-herd scarcity long holds. Short banned. |
| Lean Hogs | 96.7 | ▼ down | 44 | 2.1% | Sell | Soft below the 20/50-day, Sell — the ▸long waits for a cover-print + a reclaim of ~99. |
Split into LONG and SHORT, each sorted by conviction, updated for the post-FOMC tape. FX is the tradeable pair (e.g. LONG USD/CAD). Levels are TradingView 20/50/200-day SMAs + RSI/ATR as of 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).
| Trade | Conv. | Thesis (with the post-print + technical read) | Trigger / entry — incl. level | Timeframe / exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG USD/CAD | ★★★ 6.5 | The cleanest expression of the re-armed dollar — STRONG uptrend (ADX 49), above all averages, Buy. Short-CAD positioning deepened to −83%. RSI 86 “overbought” in an ADX-49 trend is NOT a sell. | Don’t chase the spike. LONG on dips that hold ~1.396 (the SMA20). | Rides the USD trend. Stop below ~1.392; the trade dies on a DXY break of ~99 (most likely a dovish PCE). |
| HOLD LONG Copper | ★★★ 5.5 | Scarcity long, short BANNED — acutely tight (COMEX hoarding ~44% of world stock, LME drawn to ~147k t, ~600k t 2026 deficit). Consolidating $6.36 (ADX 10, Neutral) after a −2% wobble. | Hold longs; no fresh entry up here. The Sec-232 tariff decision (30-Jun) is the binary catalyst. | Structural; trail. A “no-tariff” surprise is the risk — size for it. |
| HOLD LONG Live Cattle | ★★½ 4.5 | Scarcity long VALIDATED — 247.4, above the averages, Buy, +2.4%. US herd at a 75-yr low (86.2M head); placements −9.7%. | Hold longs; short BANNED. Feeder Cattle (+3.3%, Buy) rides the same story. | Structural; trail. |
| LONG Cocoa | ★★ 4.0 | The max-short squeeze FIRED again — +13.6% to $4,588, RSI 69, above the 20/50-day. But it’s TACTICAL: still below the 200-day ($4,839), ADX 16 (weak), and stocks are rising. | Hold/trade the squeeze; add only on dips that hold the breakout. Don’t marry it. | Take profit into vertical spikes; trail under the breakout. Don’t over-short the coming-crop tightness either. |
| HOLD LONG Soybean Oil | ★½ 3.0 | The biofuel-mandate long broke −9.0% through the 20/50-day (RSI 30, oversold) — but the bigger uptrend holds (well above the 200-day $59). | Hold ONLY above the 200-day; no adds. CLOSE below ~$64. | Tight short-term break, long-term intact — fragile. |
| ▸ LONG Lean Hogs | ★ 2.5 | Max short (−100%) but price still soft (96.7, below the 20/50-day, Sell) — no scarcity story (ample supply). | ▸ LONG only on a cover-print + a reclaim of the SMA20 ~99. Not yet. | Wait; no position until the turn. |
| Trade | Conv. | Thesis (with the post-print + technical read) | Trigger / entry — incl. level | Timeframe / exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT Corn | ★★★ 7.0 | RECORD managed-money short (S +47,108 this week, to −49k net), glut-backed, full runway — and a STRONG downtrend confirms it (ADX 41, Strong Sell, below all averages). RSI 32, oversold at $4.12. | SHORT a rally toward the SMA20 ~$4.30 — do NOT chase the low. | Weeks. Stop ~1.5× ATR (≈$0.13) above entry. Kill-switch: a weather scare (the 2026 crop was cut −6%) or a close above ~$4.50 (SMA50). |
| SHORT Sugar | ★★★ 6.0 | Short crowd deepening (S +24,290, to −65%), global surplus (Brazil C-S crush >50% to sugar). Below all averages, STRONG SELL, RSI 33. | SHORT a rally toward ~13.8 (SMA20) or a fresh lower-low — don’t chase the oversold low. | Open-ended. Stop above the recent lower-high (~1.5× ATR). |
| SHORT NZD/USD | ★★½ 5.0 | Short reloaded (−80%) and the breakdown CONFIRMED — below all averages, STRONG SELL, riding the strong dollar. | Triggered. SHORT here / add on a feeble bounce to ~0.578. | With the dollar; CLOSE if DXY breaks ~99. |
| SHORT GBP/USD | ★★ 4.5 | Shorts re-loaded (−77%), trend down, broke below ~1.332 — Sell-rated. The ▸ became a SHORT. | On now. Trail under the breakdown; add on a failed bounce to ~1.332. | With the dollar; CLOSE on a reclaim of 1.332 / a dovish PCE. |
| HOLD SHORT Wheat · CBOT | ★★ 4.0 | Short worked; world supply ample. Bounced +4.3% ($6.08) but still mid-range, Neutral — the bounce is the risk. | Already on. Trail; no adds into the bounce. | CLOSE above the pivot. Deep crowd (−61%) = squeeze-tail risk. |
| ▸ SHORT USD/JPY | ★½ 3.5 | Record-short JPY = the biggest coiled spring (the trade is SHORT USD/JPY = long yen). But 161.6, RSI 70, Buy — and MoF is signalling “bold action.” | ▸ SHORT USD/JPY only on a risk-off shock or an intervention print. Do NOT pre-position into 160–165 intervention risk. | Event-driven; violent when it goes. Joint US action would be the trigger. |
| ▸ SHORT NatGas | ★ 2.5 | Glut + storage +151 Bcf vs 5-yr — BUT shorts COVERED hard (+30k) and price is firm ($3.23, above the 20/50-day, Buy). Summer heat is the bull. | ▸ SHORT only on a break below the base ~$3.05. No position while it’s above the averages. | Open-ended once it breaks; the heat forecast is the risk. |
Honesty box. The dollar call is the spine of the book and the hawkish Fed just re-armed it — long USD/CAD (ADX 49) and the glut shorts (corn at a record short, sugar, GBP/NZD) are riding the tape. The risks I’m carrying openly: copper is a max-long into a binary 30-Jun tariff decision (a “no-tariff” print hurts), the gold long is offside (don’t catch it — but don’t short the central-bank floor either), and the coiled max-short JPY can gap on intervention. Sell only glut-backed names on rallies; never chase an oversold low (Corn RSI 32, Sugar RSI 33).
Rates, equities and VIX — with the FOMC now behind us. Each is Now / Waiting for / If it fires, so “no trade” is never the end of the story: it tells you the exact trigger that would create one.
The relationships that mattered — updated for the hawkish-Fed tape. Each was adversarially stress-tested; the ones that broke are traps to avoid.
CFTC Disaggregated — Managed Money, positioning to Tue 16 Jun 2026 (self-pulled). Net = fund longs − shorts. Crowd & fuel = the spec net as % of its 1-yr extreme. Px · since 16-Jun = the price move SINCE the COT close (Window B, TradingView) — so e.g. Cocoa’s +13.6% squeeze is the print here. Signal & read are current to 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).
| Contract | Net | Crowd & fuel | Flow (gross legs) | Px · since 16-Jun | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +67,420 | LONG 68% ⚑ | L +5,604 / S +2,309 | −0.1% | NO TRADE | Crowded long, Sell-rated — no edge. |
| WTI (NYMEX) | +96,228 | LONG 55% | L +6,690 / S +5,187 | −8.6% | NO TRADE | Longs built into 16-Jun, then crude COLLAPSED on the Hormuz peace; oversold RSI 28. Stand aside — headline risk both ways. |
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +8,130 | LONG 36% | L +765 / S +390 | — | NO TRADE | War premium gone; no trade. |
| NY Harbor ULSD | +9,519 | LONG 23% | L +1,817 / S +1,805 | −4.4% | ▸ LONG | ▸ LONG on a reclaim — distillate cracks record-tight; long stopped on the flush. |
| NatGas | −84,909 | SHORT 63% | L +8,114 / S −29,594 | +2.5% | ▸ SHORT | ▸ SHORT on a break <$3.05 — shorts covered hard, firm $3.23, Buy. Summer heat is the bull. |
| PRECIOUS & BASE METALS | ||||||
| HG Copper | +69,008 | LONG 91% ⚑ | L −2,391 / S −2,195 | −2.0% | HOLD LONG | Short BANNED — acutely tight; 30-Jun tariff decision. Consolidating $6.36, Neutral. Hold longs. |
| Gold | +113,721 | LONG 70% ⚑ | L +1,763 / S −6,095 | −2.7% | NO TRADE | Long OFFSIDE — USD+yields up → below all averages, STRONG SELL. CB floor = don’t short either. |
| Platinum | +7,884 | LONG 38% | L −742 / S −352 | −5.6% | NO TRADE | 2026 deficit caps it, but momentum broke. No trade. |
| Silver | +12,885 | LONG 29% | L +2,403 / S −79 | −6.8% | NO TRADE | Sold off with the complex; Strong Sell. |
| Palladium | −4,319 | SHORT 65% | L +446 / S +305 | −5.7% | NO TRADE | Russian-duty squeeze risk — don’t press shorts. |
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS | ||||||
| Soybean Oil | +122,424 | LONG 73% ⚑ | L −10,906 / S −4,584 | −9.0% | HOLD LONG | Broke the 20/50-day (RSI 30) but above the 200-day ($59) — hold tight, CLOSE below ~$64. |
| Soybeans | +54,494 | LONG 23% | L −22,453 / S +20,912 | +2.7% | NO TRADE | Longs capitulated (−43k net) yet price rose — edge gone, stand aside. |
| Wheat (KCBT) | +8,363 | LONG 22% | L +5,686 / S −6,675 | +1.0% | NO TRADE | Short covered to net-long; tight HRW, crowd small. |
| Soybean Meal | +19,460 | LONG 15% | L −4,104 / S +31,883 | +0.7% | NO TRADE | Capitulated (−36k net); spent. |
| Corn | −49,487 | SHORT 26% | L −1,073 / S +47,108 | −0.1% | SHORT | RECORD short build — SHORT rallies to ~$4.30, STRONG downtrend (ADX 41) but oversold $4.12, don’t chase. |
| Wheat (CBOT) | −68,968 | SHORT 61% ⚑ | L +2,759 / S −5,866 | +4.3% | HOLD SHORT | Bounced +4.3%, world ample. Trail short; close above the pivot. |
| SOFTS | ||||||
| Cotton | +33,542 | LONG 56% | L −5,008 / S +3,988 | +3.6% | NO TRADE | Crowded long into abundant stocks; mixed, no edge. |
| Coffee (Arabica) | +14,007 | LONG 28% | L −731 / S −2,875 | +5.6% | NO TRADE | Net long, bounced +5.6%, Neutral — no clean trade. |
| Sugar | −154,935 | SHORT 65% | L −6,932 / S +24,290 | −2.3% | SHORT | Short deepening, global surplus — SHORT rallies to ~13.8, Strong Sell, RSI 33. |
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −20,556 | SHORT 89% ⚑ | L +2,188 / S −340 | +13.6% | LONG | LONG (tactical) — squeeze FIRED +13.6% to $4,588; above 20/50-day, below the 200-day. Take profit into spikes. |
| LIVESTOCK | ||||||
| Live Cattle | +122,805 | LONG 89% ⚑ | L +12,114 / S −1,619 | +2.4% | HOLD LONG | Above averages, Buy. 75-yr-low herd; hold longs, short BANNED. |
| Feeder Cattle | +13,356 | LONG 37% | L +1,833 / S −131 | +3.3% | HOLD LONG | Same scarcity, Buy. Hold longs. |
| Lean Hogs | −28,640 | SHORT 100% | L −1,554 / S +2,625 | −0.7% | ▸ LONG | ▸ LONG on a cover-print — still soft ($96.7), Sell, ample supply. Not yet. |
CFTC Legacy futures-only, Non-Commercial. Positioning is per currency; the Signal is the tradeable pair — so “short the yen” (specs short JPY) becomes ▸ SHORT USD/JPY = long the yen. No ambiguity.
| Ccy | Pair | Net | Δ Net | Rel | Wk Px Δ | Signal (the pair trade) | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | EUR/USD | +34,353 | +20,421 | 19% | −1.4% | NO TRADE | Longs building but EUR/USD oversold (RSI 31), capped post-ECB. Sell rallies into USD strength. |
| CHF | USD/CHF | −40,058 | −3,393 | −91% | +1.8% | HOLD long USD/CHF | Short CHF deepened = long USD/CHF; firm, Buy. No adds. |
| GBP | GBP/USD | −71,585 | −7,372 | −77% | −1.2% | SHORT GBP/USD | Short re-loaded; broke below ~1.332, Sell. Confirmed (was armed). |
| JPY | USD/JPY | −150,132 | −4,314 | −100% | +0.8% | ▸ SHORT USD/JPY | Record short yen = the coiled spring. On a risk shock / intervention only; 161.6, RSI 70, Buy — don’t pre-position. |
| CAD | USD/CAD | −132,901 | −12,902 | −83% | +1.2% | LONG USD/CAD | Short-CAD = long USD/CAD. The trend monster (ADX 49, Buy); add on dips to ~1.396, RSI 86 ≠ sell. |
| AUD | AUD/USD | −4,125 | −22,285 | −4% | −1.1% | NO TRADE | Long flushed to neutral (−22k); AUD/USD soft, Sell. |
| NZD | NZD/USD | −45,161 | −13,590 | −80% | −1.9% | SHORT NZD/USD | Short reloaded; broke down, Strong Sell. Confirmed (was armed). |
| MXN | USD/MXN | +71,789 | +7,988 | 66% | +0.9% | NO TRADE | Peso long crowded (carry); USD/MXN 17.37. No edge. |
| USD | DXY basket | +$29.3bn | +$1.5bn | — | 101.0 | LONG USD | The master long, RE-ARMED by the hawkish FOMC. DXY 101, RSI 70, Buy. |
USD row = implied aggregate dollar position (−Σ of the others’ $bn): specs are net long $29.3bn vs the basket (+$1.5bn on the week) — now re-armed by the hawkish FOMC (DXY 101, RSI 70, above all averages).
CFTC Traders-in-Financial-Futures. Rates read via Asset Managers (the Lev-Fund net is the basis trade). Equities/VIX via Leveraged Funds. “Now” = TradingView 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).
| Contract | OI | AM net | Rel | Lev (basis) | Yield now | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y | 5.3M | +2,485k | 100% | −2,082k | 4.51% | NO TRADE | Record long now OFFSIDE — yields ROSE. The flag re-arms toward 4.60%. |
| Ultra Bond | 2.5M | +1,163k | 97% | −938k | — | NO TRADE | Record long; the long end sold off. |
| UST Bond | 1.9M | +547k | 93% | −310k | 4.94% | NO TRADE | 30Y back near 5.0% — the systemic trip is close. |
| Ultra 10Y | 2.4M | +623k | 84% | −233k | — | NO TRADE | Long offside as the long-end sold. |
| UST 5Y | 6.2M | +2,876k | 75% | −2,214k | 4.29% | NO TRADE | Belly hit; the largest basis short on the curve (Lev side). |
| UST 2Y | 4.3M | +1,824k | 70% | −1,704k | 4.23% | NO TRADE | Front-end jumped +15bp — the most-hawkish point. |
| Index | Lev net | Δ Lev | Rel | Now | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −523k | −64k | −100% | 7,530 | NO TRADE | RECORD short into the print, yet price held the uptrend, Buy. Squeeze fuel — no new short (▸short only on a catalyst). |
| Nasdaq-100 | −51k | +5k | −69% | 30,571 | NO TRADE | Covered slightly; above its averages, Buy. |
| Russell 2000 | −84k | −10k | −72% | 3,020 | NO TRADE | Bears pressing, but Buy-rated, +1.0%. |
| Dow (DJIA) | −9k | −0k | −37% | 52,140 | NO TRADE | Near highs, Buy. |
| MSCI EM | +45k | −21k | 27% | — | NO TRADE | Trimmed (−21k) by the strong dollar. |
| Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Rel | Now | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | −13k | +43k | −13% | 17.3 | NO TRADE | Shorts COVERED into the FOMC (+22k, −13% from −33%), rated Sell (vol falling) — dealers stayed long gamma, so the hawkish print passed without a vol spasm. Green. |