The COT week (9→16 Jun) was a story of crowds caught offside — read the positioning MOVE against the SAME-week price. The two cleanest divergences: specs BOUGHT crude into a −14% Hormuz collapse (trapped energy longs), and Leveraged Funds piled a RECORD S&P short into a +2.6% rising tape (trapped shorts = squeeze fuel). What CONFIRMED is where the trades are — the record corn short (price falling, glut), the cattle long (scarcity, +4%), the cocoa squeeze (still −89% short, +10.5%). Then, AFTER the Tuesday close, the hawkish Warsh FOMC hit: the dollar ripped and metals/duration reversed, so gold’s in-week gain evaporated and the energy longs got worse. Trade the confirmations; fade the trapped.
Every market as a share of its own 1-year positioning extreme, as of the Tue 16-Jun COT close. Green = the crowd was long; red = short. It read green at the top (record-long duration, long gold & copper) and red at the bottom (record-short equities, long dollar) — then the 17-Jun hawkish FOMC broke the green metals/duration leg and powered the dollar. Hover any tile for the current call.
Signed mean rel-to-max by class. The book leaned defensive into the FOMC — record-long duration & gold, record-short equities, long dollar. The hawkish Fed validated the dollar / short-equity-squeeze legs but broke the long-gold & long-duration leg (yields rose).
The edge isn’t the chart — it’s how the crowd’s positioning moved versus how price moved in the SAME week (Tue 9-Jun → Tue 16-Jun). Agree → the trend is CONFIRMED; fight → a DIVERGENCE (trapped longs/shorts, squeeze fuel). That is the core signal. Price since the print and the technicals further down are a secondary timing layer — not the driver.
| Market | Positioning move · the week | Crowd & fuel | Px · 9→16 Jun | Same-period read | · since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Lev SHORT +64k — a record | SHORT −100% | +2.6% | DIVERGE ⚠ Leveraged Funds piled a RECORD short straight INTO a rising tape — textbook squeeze fuel, not a top. Price held its uptrend. | −0.7% |
| WTI crude | added longs +6.7k | LONG 55% | −13.8% | DIVERGE ⚠ Specs BOUGHT crude as it CRASHED on the Hormuz peace — badly trapped longs, leaning the wrong way all week. | −2.5% |
| RBOB gasoline | added longs +5.6k | LONG 68% | −6.9% | DIVERGE ⚠ Crowded long added into a falling price — trapped with the crude complex. | +2.8% |
| Heating Oil | longs steady | LONG 23% | −11.7% | DIVERGE ⚠ Added longs into −11.7% — trapped, but distillate cracks stay record-tight (▸LONG only on a reclaim). | −1.8% |
| Cocoa | shorts covering | SHORT −89% | +10.5% | DIVERGE ⚠ STILL net short −89% while price ripped +10.5% (and +9.1% since) — the trapped-short squeeze is firing. Tactical long. | +9.1% |
| Soybeans | dumped longs, S +21k | LONG 23% | +2.9% | DIVERGE ⚠ Specs dumped longs AND piled shorts — into a RISING price. Bullish divergence; the new shorts are offside (glut caps it). | −0.2% |
| Cotton | added shorts +4k | LONG 56% | +9.1% | DIVERGE ⚠ Shorts added into a +9.1% rip = trapped, but abundant stocks cap the squeeze. | +2.1% |
| Russell 2000 | Lev added shorts | SHORT −72% | +3.3% | DIVERGE ⚠ Small-cap shorts pressed into a rising week — trapped, squeezing with the S&P. | +2.0% |
| Corn | S +47k — a record | SHORT −26% | −1.4% | CONFIRM ✓ Record new short AND price falling = the crowd is right, glut-backed, full runway. The cleanest short on the board. | −0.2% |
| Sugar | shorts +24k | SHORT −65% | −1.8% | CONFIRM ✓ Short pressed + price down = glut downtrend confirmed. Short rallies. | −3.4% |
| Live Cattle | added longs +12k | LONG 89% | +4.0% | CONFIRM ✓ Longs added + price up = the 75-yr-low-herd scarcity uptrend. Hold long; short banned. | −0.7% |
| Coffee | shorts covered | LONG 28% | +11.6% | CONFIRM ✓ Shorts covered as price ripped +11.6% — confirmed turn. Net long now; no fresh edge. | −2.1% |
| NatGas | S −30k covered | SHORT −63% | +3.2% | CONFIRM ✓ Shorts COVERED hard into a +3.2% bounce = short-covering rally; the glut short is fading. | −0.3% |
| UST 10Y / bonds | AM added duration | LONG 100% | +1.7% | CONFIRM ✓* In-week: real-money added record duration AND bonds rose (yields fell) — confirmed. The post-print FOMC then reversed it (yields +1.5% since) → now offside. | −1.5% |
| Gold | added longs +8k | LONG 70% | +1.6% | CONFIRM ✓* In-week confirmed (+1.6%) — but the post-FOMC USD/yields spike snapped it −3.5% since → the long is now offside. Don’t chase; don’t short the CB floor. | −3.5% |
The hawkish 17-Jun Warsh FOMC hit after the COT close: the USD ripped (DXY 101), the curve bear-flattened (2Y +15bp), and metals/duration reversed. So the trapped energy longs got worse, gold’s in-week gain evaporated, and the record equity short stayed squeeze-risk. Price + optional technicals since the close — useful for timing the entry, not the thesis:
| Asset | Now | Trend | RSI(14) | Vol ATR% | TV rating | Since the COT close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar (DXY) | 101.0 | ▲ up | 70 | 0.5% | Buy | RIPPED post-FOMC, above all averages, Buy — the master long is BACK ON (was stalling). A break of ~99 would kill it. |
| USD/CAD | 1.4158 | ▲ up | 86 | 0.4% | Buy | The trend monster — ADX 49, above all averages, Buy. RSI 86 is NOT a sell in an ADX-49 trend; add on dips to ~1.396. |
| UST 2Y yield | 4.23% | ▲ up | — | — | — | JUMPED +15bp on the hawkish dots — the front-end led the bear-flatten; AM duration longs offside. |
| UST 10Y yield | 4.51% | ▲ up | — | — | — | Rose from ~4.44% — the systemic flag re-arms toward 4.60%. |
| UST 30Y yield | 4.94% | ▲ up | — | — | — | Back near 5.0% — the “30Y > 5%” trip is close again. |
| S&P 500 | 7,530 | ▲ up | 54 | 1.4% | Buy | Dipped −1.3% but held the UPTREND (above the 200-day 6,944), Buy — record Lev shorts = squeeze fuel. Don’t short it. |
| VIX | 17.3 | ▼ down | 48 | 12% | Sell | Shorts covered into the FOMC (+22k); rated Sell (vol falling). Green, no fragility. |
| Gold | $4,213 | ▼ down | 38 | 2.8% | Strong Sell | Sold off −2.7% on USD+yields up — below all averages, STRONG SELL, ADX 33. Long offside; CB floor = don’t short. |
| Silver | $65.2 | ▼ down | 36 | 5.8% | Strong Sell | Dropped −6.8% with the metals complex; Strong Sell. |
| Copper | $6.36 | ▬ flat | 50 | 2.5% | Neutral | Consolidating (ADX 10), Neutral — the scarcity long holds; the 30-Jun tariff decision is the catalyst. |
| WTI crude | $74.2 | ▼ down | 28 | 6.7% | Sell | COLLAPSED −8.6% — the Hormuz peace deal unwound the war premium; oversold, Sell, very volatile (ATR 6.7%). |
| Corn | $4.12 | ▼ down | 32 | 2.2% | Strong Sell | STRONG downtrend (ADX 41, Strong Sell) — record short, full runway. But oversold; sell the bounce to ~$4.30. |
| Soybean Oil | $66.9 | ▬ flat | 30 | 3.3% | Sell | Broke −9.0% through the 20/50-day, RSI 30 oversold — long now only above the 200-day ($59). |
| Cocoa | $4,588 | ▲ up | 69 | 5.2% | Buy | Squeezed +13.6% — specs still short and offside. Above the 20/50-day, below the 200-day ($4,839) = tactical bounce; take profit into spikes. |
| Sugar | 13.36c | ▼ down | 33 | 2.6% | Strong Sell | Below all averages, STRONG SELL, RSI 33 — the glut short is working; short rallies, don’t chase the low. |
| USD/JPY | 161.6 | ▲ up | 70 | 0.4% | Buy | RSI 70 overbought, above all averages, Buy — record short yen is the coiled spring, but intervention risk near 160–165. Don’t pre-position. |
| NZD/USD | 0.5710 | ▼ down | 34 | 0.9% | Strong Sell | Broke down, STRONG SELL — the short is confirmed (was armed). |
| GBP/USD | 1.3247 | ▼ down | 38 | 0.6% | Sell | Broke below ~1.332, Sell — the short fired (was armed). |
| Live Cattle | 247.4 | ▬ flat | 56 | 1.7% | Buy | Above the averages, Buy, +2.4% — the 75-yr-low-herd scarcity long holds. Short banned. |
| Lean Hogs | 96.7 | ▼ down | 44 | 2.1% | Sell | Soft below the 20/50-day, Sell — the ▸long waits for a cover-print + a reclaim of ~99. |
Split into LONG and SHORT by conviction. Each thesis leads with the positioning-vs-same-week-price read (CONFIRM or DIVERGE); the chart levels are a secondary timing layer. FX is the tradeable pair (e.g. LONG USD/CAD).
| Trade | Conv. | Thesis — positioning vs the same-week price | Trigger / entry — incl. level | Timeframe / exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG USD/CAD | ★★★ 6.5 | CONFIRM — specs deepened the short-CAD bet (−83%) and CAD FELL with it (USD/CAD +0.3% in-week, +1.2% since); the hawkish FOMC then re-armed the whole dollar trend. (Timing: ADX 49, RSI 86 ≠ sell in this trend.) | Don’t chase the spike. LONG on dips that hold ~1.396 (the SMA20). | Rides the USD trend. Stop below ~1.392; the trade dies on a DXY break of ~99 (most likely a dovish PCE). |
| HOLD LONG Copper | ★★★ 5.5 | Held its ground (+2.9% in-week) on tight physical while specs trimmed both legs — max-long 91%, short BANNED. COMEX hoarding ~44% of world stock, LME drawn to ~147k t, ~600k t 2026 deficit. | Hold longs; no fresh entry up here. The Sec-232 tariff decision (30-Jun) is the binary catalyst. | Structural; trail. A “no-tariff” surprise is the risk — size for it. |
| HOLD LONG Live Cattle | ★★½ 4.5 | CONFIRM — specs added longs (+12k) AND price rose +4.0% in the same week = the 75-yr-low-herd scarcity uptrend (86.2M head; placements −9.7%). | Hold longs; short BANNED. Feeder Cattle (+3.6%) rides the same story. | Structural; trail. |
| LONG Cocoa | ★★ 4.0 | DIVERGE→squeeze — specs are STILL net short −89% yet price RIPPED +10.5% in-week (and +9.1% since) = trapped shorts firing. But it’s TACTICAL: still below the 200-day, and stocks are rising. | Hold/trade the squeeze; add only on dips that hold the breakout. Don’t marry it. | Take profit into vertical spikes; trail under the breakout. Don’t over-short the coming-crop tightness either. |
| HOLD LONG Soybean Oil | ★½ 3.0 | Longs trimming as price softened (−2.7% in-week, −8.2% since) — the biofuel-mandate long is unwinding, but it holds above the 200-day ($59). | Hold ONLY above the 200-day; no adds. CLOSE below ~$64. | Tight short-term break, long-term intact — fragile. |
| ▸ LONG Lean Hogs | ★ 2.5 | CONFIRM (short side) — max short −100% AND price still falling = no scarcity (ample supply). The long waits for the crowd to cover. | ▸ LONG only on a cover-print + a reclaim of the SMA20 ~99. Not yet. | Wait; no position until the turn. |
| Trade | Conv. | Thesis — positioning vs the same-week price | Trigger / entry — incl. level | Timeframe / exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT Corn | ★★★ 7.0 | CONFIRM — a RECORD managed-money short (S +47,108, to −49k net) AND price falling −1.4% in the SAME week = the crowd is right, glut-backed, full runway. The cleanest confirmation on the board (RSI 32 oversold → sell rallies). | SHORT a rally toward the SMA20 ~$4.30 — do NOT chase the low. | Weeks. Stop ~1.5× ATR (≈$0.13) above entry. Kill-switch: a weather scare (the 2026 crop was cut −6%) or a close above ~$4.50 (SMA50). |
| SHORT Sugar | ★★★ 6.0 | CONFIRM — short pressed (S +24,290, to −65%) + price down −1.8% in-week = glut downtrend confirmed (Brazil C-S crush >50% to sugar; −3.4% since). | SHORT a rally toward ~13.8 (SMA20) or a fresh lower-low — don’t chase the oversold low. | Open-ended. Stop above the recent lower-high (~1.5× ATR). |
| SHORT NZD/USD | ★★½ 5.0 | Short reloaded (−80%); NZD flat in-week then broke −2.2% since = the short pays post-print, riding the strong dollar. | Triggered. SHORT here / add on a feeble bounce to ~0.578. | With the dollar; CLOSE if DXY breaks ~99. |
| SHORT GBP/USD | ★★ 4.5 | Shorts deepened (−77%); GBP flat in-week then broke −1.3% since = confirmed with the dollar. | On now. Trail under the breakdown; add on a failed bounce to ~1.332. | With the dollar; CLOSE on a reclaim of 1.332 / a dovish PCE. |
| HOLD SHORT Wheat · CBOT | ★★ 4.0 | DIVERGE — a deep short (−61%) but shorts are COVERING into a +3.2% in-week bounce = the short is squeezing. World supply ample, so trail rather than add. | Already on. Trail; no adds into the bounce. | CLOSE above the pivot. Deep crowd (−61%) = squeeze-tail risk. |
| ▸ SHORT USD/JPY | ★½ 3.5 | Record-short JPY but USD/JPY PINNED in-week (the short isn’t being paid yet) = a coiled spring (the trade is SHORT USD/JPY = long yen). MoF signalling “bold action.” | ▸ SHORT USD/JPY only on a risk-off shock or an intervention print. Do NOT pre-position into 160–165 intervention risk. | Event-driven; violent when it goes. Joint US action would be the trigger. |
| ▸ SHORT NatGas | ★ 2.5 | DIVERGE — shorts COVERED hard (S −30k) into a +3.2% in-week bounce = the glut short is fading, not paying. Storage +151 Bcf vs 5-yr; summer heat is the bull. | ▸ SHORT only on a break below the base ~$3.05. No position while it’s above the averages. | Open-ended once it breaks; the heat forecast is the risk. |
Honesty box. The trades follow the same-period read: ride the confirmations (corn short, cattle long, USD/CAD — positioning and price agree), and treat the divergences with care (long the cocoa squeeze; don’t chase the trapped energy longs, don’t fade the record equity short). Open risks: copper is a max-long into a binary 30-Jun tariff call; the gold long was confirmed in-week but the post-print FOMC flipped it offside; the coiled max-short JPY can gap on intervention. Never short the scarcity (copper, cattle); never chase an oversold low (corn RSI 32, sugar RSI 33).
Rates, equities and VIX — with the FOMC now behind us. Each is Now / Waiting for / If it fires, so “no trade” is never the end of the story: it tells you the exact trigger that would create one.
The relationships that mattered — updated for the hawkish-Fed tape. Each was adversarially stress-tested; the ones that broke are traps to avoid.
CFTC Disaggregated — Managed Money, positioning to Tue 16 Jun 2026 (self-pulled). The core read: Net / ΔNet / Flow (how the crowd moved) against Px · 9→16 Jun (how price moved in the SAME week) → CONFIRM or DIVERGE. Crowd & fuel = spec net as a % of its 1-yr extreme. · since = the secondary move since the close.
| Contract | Net | Crowd & fuel | Flow (gross legs) | Px · 9→16 | · since | Signal | Read — positioning vs the same-week price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY · trapped longs — specs bought into the crash | |||||||
| RBOB Gasoline | +67,420 | LONG 68% ⚑ | L +5,604 / S +2,309 | −6.9% | +2.8% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — added longs into a −6.9% week = trapped, crowded 68%. Bounced +2.8% since but no edge. |
| WTI (NYMEX) | +96,228 | LONG 55% | L +6,690 / S +5,187 | −13.8% | −2.5% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — specs BOUGHT crude (+6.7k longs) as it CRASHED −13.8% on the Hormuz peace = badly trapped longs. −2.5% more since. Stand aside. |
| Brent (NYMEX LD) | +8,130 | LONG 36% | L +765 / S +390 | ≈−13% | ≈−2% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — trapped with the crude complex; the war premium is gone. |
| NY Harbor ULSD | +9,519 | LONG 23% | L +1,817 / S +1,805 | −11.7% | −1.8% | ▸ LONG | DIVERGE — added longs into −11.7%, but distillate cracks stay record-tight. ▸LONG only on a reclaim. |
| NatGas | −84,909 | SHORT 63% | L +8,114 / S −29,594 | +3.2% | −0.3% | ▸ SHORT | CONFIRM↑ — shorts COVERED hard (−29.6k) into a +3.2% bounce = short-covering rally, the glut short is fading. ▸SHORT only on a break <3.05. |
| PRECIOUS & BASE METALS · confirmed in-week, then the FOMC reversed it | |||||||
| HG Copper | +69,008 | LONG 91% ⚑ | L −2,391 / S −2,195 | +2.9% | −2.5% | HOLD LONG | Held +2.9% on tight physical (both legs trimmed), max-long. 30-Jun Sec-232 tariff is the binary. HOLD LONG, short BANNED; −2.5% on the USD spike. |
| Gold | +113,721 | LONG 70% ⚑ | L +1,763 / S −6,095 | +1.6% | −3.5% | NO TRADE | CONFIRM* in-week (added longs, +1.6%) — but the post-FOMC USD/yields spike snapped it −3.5% → the long is now OFFSIDE. Don’t chase; don’t short the CB floor. |
| Platinum | +7,884 | LONG 38% | L −742 / S −352 | +6.0% | −8.0% | NO TRADE | Ripped +6.0% on the deficit, then gave it ALL back −8.0% post-FOMC. A round-trip; no trade. |
| Silver | +12,885 | LONG 29% | L +2,403 / S −79 | +7.3% | −7.5% | NO TRADE | Same round-trip: +7.3% in-week, −7.5% since. Structural deficit, broken momentum. No trade. |
| Palladium | −4,319 | SHORT 65% | L +446 / S +305 | +11.5% | −7.5% | NO TRADE | Squeezed +11.5% in-week (Russian-duty risk) then −7.5%. Don’t press shorts. |
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS · shorts trapped into a rising board | |||||||
| Soybean Oil | +122,424 | LONG 73% ⚑ | L −10,906 / S −4,584 | −2.7% | −8.2% | HOLD LONG | CONFIRM↓ — longs trimming, price soft (−2.7% wk, −8.2% since): the mandate long is unwinding. HOLD only above the 200-day; CLOSE below ~$64. |
| Soybeans | +54,494 | LONG 23% | L −22,453 / S +20,912 | +2.9% | −0.2% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — dumped longs AND piled shorts (S +20.9k) into a +2.9% RISING price = trapped new shorts / bullish divergence; glut caps the pop. |
| Wheat (KCBT) | +8,363 | LONG 22% | L +5,686 / S −6,675 | +1.6% | +0.2% | NO TRADE | CONFIRM — short covered to net-long + price up; tight HRW, crowd small. No trade. |
| Soybean Meal | +19,460 | LONG 15% | L −4,104 / S +31,883 | +2.0% | −1.0% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — a huge short build (S +31.9k) into a +2.0% rising price = trapped shorts. Spent crush story; shorts offside. |
| Corn | −49,487 | SHORT 26% | L −1,073 / S +47,108 | −1.4% | −0.2% | SHORT | CONFIRM↓ — RECORD short build (S +47.1k) + price down = the crowd is right, glut, full runway. SHORT rallies to ~4.30; oversold, don’t chase the low. |
| Wheat (CBOT) | −68,968 | SHORT 61% ⚑ | L +2,759 / S −5,866 | +3.2% | +0.9% | HOLD SHORT | Shorts covering into a +3.2% bounce — the deep short (−61%) is squeezing. HOLD SHORT, trail; close above the pivot. |
| SOFTS · the cocoa squeeze, and cotton trapped | |||||||
| Cotton | +33,542 | LONG 56% | L −5,008 / S +3,988 | +9.1% | +2.1% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — specs added shorts into a +9.1% RIP = trapped, but abundant stocks cap it. Shorts offside; no fresh trade. |
| Coffee (Arabica) | +14,007 | LONG 28% | L −731 / S −2,875 | +11.6% | −2.1% | NO TRADE | CONFIRM — shorts covered + price +11.6% (a big move). Easing glut. Net long, no clean edge now. |
| Sugar | −154,935 | SHORT 65% | L −6,932 / S +24,290 | −1.8% | −3.4% | SHORT | CONFIRM↓ — short pressed (S +24.3k) + price down = glut downtrend confirmed. SHORT rallies to ~13.8. |
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −20,556 | SHORT 89% ⚑ | L +2,188 / S −340 | +10.5% | +9.1% | LONG | DIVERGE→squeeze — STILL net short −89% but price RIPPED +10.5% in-week and +9.1% since = trapped shorts firing. LONG tactical, below the 200-day; take profit into spikes. |
| LIVESTOCK · scarcity confirmed | |||||||
| Live Cattle | +122,805 | LONG 89% ⚑ | L +12,114 / S −1,619 | +4.0% | −0.7% | HOLD LONG | CONFIRM↑ — added longs + price +4.0% = the 75-yr-low-herd scarcity uptrend. HOLD LONG; short BANNED. |
| Feeder Cattle | +13,356 | LONG 37% | L +1,833 / S −131 | +3.6% | +1.0% | HOLD LONG | CONFIRM↑ — same scarcity, +3.6%. HOLD LONG. |
| Lean Hogs | −28,640 | SHORT 100% | L −1,554 / S +2,625 | −1.4% | −0.2% | ▸ LONG | CONFIRM↓ — max short + price down = no scarcity, downtrend intact. ▸LONG only on a cover-print >99. |
CFTC Legacy futures-only, Non-Commercial. Positioning is per currency; the Signal is the tradeable pair. The read pits the currency’s ΔNet against the same-week pair move (9→16 Jun) — “short the yen” (specs short JPY) = ▸ SHORT USD/JPY = long the yen.
| Ccy | Pair | Net | Δ Net | Crowd | Pair · 9→16 | · since | Signal (pair trade) | Read — net move vs same-week price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | EUR/USD | +34,353 | +20,421 | 19% | +0.6% | −1.6% | NO TRADE | CONFIRM — added longs + EUR up +0.6% in-week; the FOMC took it −1.6% since. Sell rallies into dollar strength. |
| CHF | USD/CHF | −40,058 | −3,393 | −91% | −0.6% | +1.9% | HOLD long USD/CHF | DIVERGE in-week — CHF rose into the deep short; the FOMC then rescued it (+1.9% USD/CHF since). Hold; no adds. |
| GBP | GBP/USD | −71,585 | −7,372 | −77% | +0.4% | −1.3% | SHORT GBP/USD | Shorts deepened, GBP ~flat in-week, then broke −1.3% since on the USD. Confirmed post-print. |
| JPY | USD/JPY | −150,132 | −4,314 | −100% | +0.0% | +0.8% | ▸ SHORT USD/JPY | Record short yen, but USD/JPY PINNED in-week = the short isn’t paid yet, coiled. ▸SHORT on the turn / intervention; don’t pre-position. |
| CAD | USD/CAD | −132,901 | −12,902 | −83% | +0.3% | +1.2% | LONG USD/CAD | CONFIRM — short CAD + CAD fell (USD/CAD +0.3% wk, +1.2% since) = the dollar trend pays. Long; add on dips. |
| AUD | AUD/USD | −4,125 | −22,285 | −4% | +0.6% | −1.1% | NO TRADE | Long flushed to neutral (−22k) but AUD rose +0.6% in-week; soft −1.1% since. No trade. |
| NZD | NZD/USD | −45,161 | −13,590 | −80% | +0.2% | −2.2% | SHORT NZD/USD | Short reloaded; NZD flat in-week then −2.2% since = the short pays post-print. Confirmed. |
| MXN | USD/MXN | +71,789 | +7,988 | 66% | −1.4% | +1.0% | NO TRADE | CONFIRM — peso long + MXN up +1.4% in-week (carry); gave back 1.0% since. No fresh trade. |
| USD | DXY basket | +$29.3bn | +$1.5bn | — | mixed | +ripped | LONG USD | Net long $29.3bn; the dollar was MIXED in the COT week, then RIPPED post-FOMC (DXY 101). Long via USD/CAD. |
USD row = implied aggregate dollar position (−Σ of the others’ $bn): specs are net long $29.3bn vs the basket (+$1.5bn on the week) — now re-armed by the hawkish FOMC (DXY 101, RSI 70, above all averages).
CFTC Traders-in-Financial-Futures. Rates read via Asset Managers (real money; the Lev-Fund net is the basis trade, not directional). Equities/VIX via Leveraged Funds. Each row reads the positioning move against the same-week price/yield move (9→16 Jun), then the move since.
| Contract | AM net | Crowd | Yield Δ · wk | · since | Now | Signal | Read — AM duration vs the same-week move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 10Y | +2,485k | 100% | −8 bp | +7 bp | 4.51% | NO TRADE | CONFIRM* — AM added record duration AND yields FELL −8bp in-week (bond up). The hawkish FOMC then reversed it +7bp → the record long is now offside; flag re-arms toward 4.60%. |
| Ultra Bond | +1,163k | 97% | −6 bp | ≈0 | 4.94% | NO TRADE | Record long, confirmed in-week; long-end ~flat since. 30Y 4.94%, near the 5.0% systemic trip. |
| UST Bond | +547k | 93% | −6 bp | ≈0 | 4.94% | NO TRADE | Confirmed in-week; 30Y back near 5.0%. |
| Ultra 10Y | +623k | 84% | −8 bp | +7 bp | 4.51% | NO TRADE | Confirmed in-week, offside since. |
| UST 5Y | +2,876k | 75% | −8 bp | +12 bp | 4.29% | NO TRADE | AM trimmed the belly into an in-week bid; +12bp since. The big basis short here is the Lev side (not directional). |
| UST 2Y | +1,824k | 70% | −7 bp | +17 bp | 4.23% | NO TRADE | Front-end: in-week fell −7bp, then jumped +17bp since on the hawkish dots — the most-hawkish point. |
| Index | Lev net | Δ Lev | Crowd | Px · wk | · since | Signal | Read — Lev short vs the same-week move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −523k | −64k | −100% | +2.6% | −0.7% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — Lev pressed a RECORD short (−64k) INTO a +2.6% RISING tape = trapped shorts / squeeze fuel. Held the uptrend (−0.7% since). NO new short; squeeze risk is UP. |
| Nasdaq-100 | −51k | +5k | −69% | +4.1% | +0.7% | NO TRADE | Covered slightly into a +4.1% rip — confirmed bounce. No short. |
| Russell 2000 | −84k | −10k | −72% | +3.3% | +2.0% | NO TRADE | DIVERGE — pressed shorts into +3.3% (and +2.0% since) = trapped, small-caps squeezing. No short. |
| Dow (DJIA) | −9k | −0k | −37% | +3.1% | −0.5% | NO TRADE | Shorts into a +3.1% rise = trapped; near highs. No trade. |
| MSCI EM | +45k | −21k | 27% | — | — | NO TRADE | Longs trimmed (−21k) by the strong dollar. No trade. |
| Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Crowd | VIX Δ · wk | · since | Signal | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | −13k | +43k | −13% | −17.4% | +5.3% | NO TRADE | Lev COVERED short-vol (+22k) as the VIX COLLAPSED −17.4% into the FOMC = took profit, fragility drained. Ticked +5.3% since but green; dealers long gamma. |