Cross-Asset COT · positioning to Tue 16 Jun 2026 · price to 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC)

Crowded long gold & duration —
the hawkish Fed flipped the board.

Verdict

The new Warsh Fed came in HAWKISH on 17-Jun — held at 3.50–3.75%, but the dots flipped to a hike and the PCE forecast was lifted to 3.6%. That re-armed the dollar and broke the metals-and-duration longs: the USD ripped (DXY 101, RSI 70), gold/silver/PGMs sold off together, the curve bear-flattened (2Y +15bp to 4.23%), and crude collapsed −8.6% as the Hormuz war-premium unwound on a US–Iran deal. The playbook flips back to long-dollar: ride USD/CAD (the ADX-49 trend monster) and press the glut shorts (corn at a record short, sugar) on rallies — but NEVER short the tight names (copper into the 30-Jun tariff decision, 75-yr-low-herd cattle), and don’t pre-position the coiled max-short JPY into intervention. Friday’s PCE is the detonator.

COT weekTue 16 Jun 2026
Price as of23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC)
Positioning at closeDefensive · 70/100
Outcome sinceHawkish Fed · USD ripped
00

Positioning at the close — the board

Every market as a share of its own 1-year positioning extreme, as of the Tue 16-Jun COT close. Green = the crowd was long; red = short. It read green at the top (record-long duration, long gold & copper) and red at the bottom (record-short equities, long dollar) — then the 17-Jun hawkish FOMC broke the green metals/duration leg and powered the dollar. Hover any tile for the current call.

Risk compass · at the close
70 / 100
Defensive — gold/bonds offside
Rates
+87
Metals
+33
Energy
+24
Livestock
+9
Grains
+8
Volatility
−13
Softs
−18
FX · USD long
−44
Equities
−50

Signed mean rel-to-max by class. The book leaned defensive into the FOMC — record-long duration & gold, record-short equities, long dollar. The hawkish Fed validated the dollar / short-equity-squeeze legs but broke the long-gold & long-duration leg (yields rose).

Cross-asset positioning heatmap
Rates
UST 10Y+100
Ultra Bond+97
UST Bond+93
Ultra 10Y+84
UST 5Y+75
UST 2Y+70
Energy
RBOB+68
WTI+55
Brent+36
Heat Oil+23
NatGas−63
Metals
Copper+91
Gold+70
Platinum+38
Silver+29
Palladium−65
Grains
Soy Oil+73
Soybeans+23
Wheat KC+22
Soy Meal+15
Corn−26
Wheat CB−61
Livestock
Live Cattle+89
Feeder+37
Lean Hogs−100
Softs
Cotton+56
Coffee+28
Sugar−65
Cocoa−89
Vol
VIX−13
FX · USD
MXN+66
EUR+19
AUD−4
GBP−77
NZD−80
CAD−83
CHF−91
JPY−100
Equities
MSCI EM+27
Dow−37
Nasdaq−69
Russell−72
S&P 500−100
SHORT −100+100 LONG· hover for the call
01

Two windows — what the positioning saw, and what happened next

The COT positioning covers through Tue 16-Jun (the release was delayed to Mon 22-Jun by the Juneteenth holiday). Price action since — pulled live from TradingView, through the 17-Jun FOMC — confirmed the dollar and broke the metals: a hawkish Warsh debut. That changes several calls.

Window A · into the close (→ Tue 16-Jun): the defensive book built before the FOMC

Into the print the crowd was record-long duration (Asset-Mgr rel +100% across the curve), long gold (+70%) and copper (+91%), record-short the S&P (Lev −100%) and record-short the yen (−100%), and net-long the dollar (+$29.3bn). That is the snapshot the heatmap shows — a defensive book leaning on lower yields & a softer dollar.

Window B · since the close (→ 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC)): the hawkish FOMC that re-armed the dollar
AssetNowTrendRSI(14)Vol ATR%TV ratingSince the COT close
US Dollar (DXY)101.0▲ up700.5%BuyRIPPED post-FOMC, above all averages, Buy — the master long is BACK ON (was stalling). A break of ~99 would kill it.
USD/CAD1.4158▲ up860.4%BuyThe trend monster — ADX 49, above all averages, Buy. RSI 86 is NOT a sell in an ADX-49 trend; add on dips to ~1.396.
UST 2Y yield4.23%▲ upJUMPED +15bp on the hawkish dots — the front-end led the bear-flatten; AM duration longs offside.
UST 10Y yield4.51%▲ upRose from ~4.44% — the systemic flag re-arms toward 4.60%.
UST 30Y yield4.94%▲ upBack near 5.0% — the “30Y > 5%” trip is close again.
S&P 5007,530▲ up541.4%BuyDipped −1.3% but held the UPTREND (above the 200-day 6,944), Buy — record Lev shorts = squeeze fuel. Don’t short it.
VIX17.3▼ down4812%SellShorts covered into the FOMC (+22k); rated Sell (vol falling). Green, no fragility.
Gold$4,213▼ down382.8%Strong SellSold off −2.7% on USD+yields up — below all averages, STRONG SELL, ADX 33. Long offside; CB floor = don’t short.
Silver$65.2▼ down365.8%Strong SellDropped −6.8% with the metals complex; Strong Sell.
Copper$6.36▬ flat502.5%NeutralConsolidating (ADX 10), Neutral — the scarcity long holds; the 30-Jun tariff decision is the catalyst.
WTI crude$74.2▼ down286.7%SellCOLLAPSED −8.6% — the Hormuz peace deal unwound the war premium; oversold, Sell, very volatile (ATR 6.7%).
Corn$4.12▼ down322.2%Strong SellSTRONG downtrend (ADX 41, Strong Sell) — record short, full runway. But oversold; sell the bounce to ~$4.30.
Soybean Oil$66.9▬ flat303.3%SellBroke −9.0% through the 20/50-day, RSI 30 oversold — long now only above the 200-day ($59).
Cocoa$4,588▲ up695.2%BuySqueezed +13.6% — specs still short and offside. Above the 20/50-day, below the 200-day ($4,839) = tactical bounce; take profit into spikes.
Sugar13.36c▼ down332.6%Strong SellBelow all averages, STRONG SELL, RSI 33 — the glut short is working; short rallies, don’t chase the low.
USD/JPY161.6▲ up700.4%BuyRSI 70 overbought, above all averages, Buy — record short yen is the coiled spring, but intervention risk near 160–165. Don’t pre-position.
NZD/USD0.5710▼ down340.9%Strong SellBroke down, STRONG SELL — the short is confirmed (was armed).
GBP/USD1.3247▼ down380.6%SellBroke below ~1.332, Sell — the short fired (was armed).
Live Cattle247.4▬ flat561.7%BuyAbove the averages, Buy, +2.4% — the 75-yr-low-herd scarcity long holds. Short banned.
Lean Hogs96.7▼ down442.1%SellSoft below the 20/50-day, Sell — the ▸long waits for a cover-print + a reclaim of ~99.
Why these indicators (and is RSI the best?). The COT positioning is the edge; the technicals only do three jobs — and each gets the right tool. Trend = price vs the 20/50/200-day moving averages + ADX (trend strength): does the chart confirm the COT direction. RSI(14) = momentum / “am I chasing an extended move” — kept because it’s a clean, fast read, but it is not used alone: in a strong trend it pins “overbought/oversold” and lies (USD/CAD RSI 77 with ADX 39 is a strong trend, not a sell). Vol (ATR%) = daily range as a % of price — sets stop width and position size (WTI’s 6.9% needs a far wider stop than the FX majors’ ~0.4%). TV rating = TradingView’s consensus of ~26 indicators (oscillators + MAs) — a one-glance sanity check, not the driver. Together they answer direction, timing and risk; RSI on its own answers only one of the three.
What changed — act on this
US DollarLONG
BACK ON
Last week the long was “stalling/fading.” The hawkish Warsh FOMC RE-ARMED it — DXY ripped to 101 (RSI 70). LONG USD/CAD again.
GoldNO TRADE
STAND DOWN
The ▸LONG-on-reclaim is dead — USD & yields rose, gold fell to a STRONG SELL below all averages. Long offside; don’t short the CB floor either.
RatesNO TRADE
FLAG RE-ARMING
Last week yields fell and vindicated the AM longs. This week they ROSE (2Y +15bp) — the duration long is offside, the systemic flag inches toward 30Y > 5%.
CornSHORT
ESCALATED
The short crowd got BIGGER (S +47k, a record net short) — still the marquee short. Sell rallies to ~$4.30; oversold, don’t chase the low.
CocoaLONG
FIRED AGAIN
The max-short squeezed +13.6% (a second detonation). Trade it tactically, take profit — still below the 200-day.
WTI / BrentNO TRADE
STAND DOWN
Crude collapsed −8.6% as the Hormuz premium unwound — longs offside, but oversold + headline risk = no clean trade.
02

What To Do

Split into LONG and SHORT, each sorted by conviction, updated for the post-FOMC tape. FX is the tradeable pair (e.g. LONG USD/CAD). Levels are TradingView 20/50/200-day SMAs + RSI/ATR as of 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).

LONGAct now — put it on at the entry shown.
▸ SHORTArmed — wait for the named trigger; no position yet.
HOLDAlready in it — trail / manage, don’t add.
CLOSEExit an existing position.
NO TRADENothing here this week.
▲ LONG — by conviction
TradeConv.Thesis (with the post-print + technical read)Trigger / entry — incl. levelTimeframe / exit
LONG USD/CAD★★★ 6.5The cleanest expression of the re-armed dollar — STRONG uptrend (ADX 49), above all averages, Buy. Short-CAD positioning deepened to −83%. RSI 86 “overbought” in an ADX-49 trend is NOT a sell.Don’t chase the spike. LONG on dips that hold ~1.396 (the SMA20).Rides the USD trend. Stop below ~1.392; the trade dies on a DXY break of ~99 (most likely a dovish PCE).
HOLD LONG Copper★★★ 5.5Scarcity long, short BANNED — acutely tight (COMEX hoarding ~44% of world stock, LME drawn to ~147k t, ~600k t 2026 deficit). Consolidating $6.36 (ADX 10, Neutral) after a −2% wobble.Hold longs; no fresh entry up here. The Sec-232 tariff decision (30-Jun) is the binary catalyst.Structural; trail. A “no-tariff” surprise is the risk — size for it.
HOLD LONG Live Cattle★★½ 4.5Scarcity long VALIDATED — 247.4, above the averages, Buy, +2.4%. US herd at a 75-yr low (86.2M head); placements −9.7%.Hold longs; short BANNED. Feeder Cattle (+3.3%, Buy) rides the same story.Structural; trail.
LONG Cocoa★★ 4.0The max-short squeeze FIRED again — +13.6% to $4,588, RSI 69, above the 20/50-day. But it’s TACTICAL: still below the 200-day ($4,839), ADX 16 (weak), and stocks are rising.Hold/trade the squeeze; add only on dips that hold the breakout. Don’t marry it.Take profit into vertical spikes; trail under the breakout. Don’t over-short the coming-crop tightness either.
HOLD LONG Soybean Oil★½ 3.0The biofuel-mandate long broke −9.0% through the 20/50-day (RSI 30, oversold) — but the bigger uptrend holds (well above the 200-day $59).Hold ONLY above the 200-day; no adds. CLOSE below ~$64.Tight short-term break, long-term intact — fragile.
▸ LONG Lean Hogs★ 2.5Max short (−100%) but price still soft (96.7, below the 20/50-day, Sell) — no scarcity story (ample supply).▸ LONG only on a cover-print + a reclaim of the SMA20 ~99. Not yet.Wait; no position until the turn.
▼ SHORT — by conviction
TradeConv.Thesis (with the post-print + technical read)Trigger / entry — incl. levelTimeframe / exit
SHORT Corn★★★ 7.0RECORD managed-money short (S +47,108 this week, to −49k net), glut-backed, full runway — and a STRONG downtrend confirms it (ADX 41, Strong Sell, below all averages). RSI 32, oversold at $4.12.SHORT a rally toward the SMA20 ~$4.30 — do NOT chase the low.Weeks. Stop ~1.5× ATR (≈$0.13) above entry. Kill-switch: a weather scare (the 2026 crop was cut −6%) or a close above ~$4.50 (SMA50).
SHORT Sugar★★★ 6.0Short crowd deepening (S +24,290, to −65%), global surplus (Brazil C-S crush >50% to sugar). Below all averages, STRONG SELL, RSI 33.SHORT a rally toward ~13.8 (SMA20) or a fresh lower-low — don’t chase the oversold low.Open-ended. Stop above the recent lower-high (~1.5× ATR).
SHORT NZD/USD★★½ 5.0Short reloaded (−80%) and the breakdown CONFIRMED — below all averages, STRONG SELL, riding the strong dollar.Triggered. SHORT here / add on a feeble bounce to ~0.578.With the dollar; CLOSE if DXY breaks ~99.
SHORT GBP/USD★★ 4.5Shorts re-loaded (−77%), trend down, broke below ~1.332 — Sell-rated. The ▸ became a SHORT.On now. Trail under the breakdown; add on a failed bounce to ~1.332.With the dollar; CLOSE on a reclaim of 1.332 / a dovish PCE.
HOLD SHORT Wheat · CBOT★★ 4.0Short worked; world supply ample. Bounced +4.3% ($6.08) but still mid-range, Neutral — the bounce is the risk.Already on. Trail; no adds into the bounce.CLOSE above the pivot. Deep crowd (−61%) = squeeze-tail risk.
▸ SHORT USD/JPY★½ 3.5Record-short JPY = the biggest coiled spring (the trade is SHORT USD/JPY = long yen). But 161.6, RSI 70, Buy — and MoF is signalling “bold action.”▸ SHORT USD/JPY only on a risk-off shock or an intervention print. Do NOT pre-position into 160–165 intervention risk.Event-driven; violent when it goes. Joint US action would be the trigger.
▸ SHORT NatGas★ 2.5Glut + storage +151 Bcf vs 5-yr — BUT shorts COVERED hard (+30k) and price is firm ($3.23, above the 20/50-day, Buy). Summer heat is the bull.▸ SHORT only on a break below the base ~$3.05. No position while it’s above the averages.Open-ended once it breaks; the heat forecast is the risk.

Honesty box. The dollar call is the spine of the book and the hawkish Fed just re-armed it — long USD/CAD (ADX 49) and the glut shorts (corn at a record short, sugar, GBP/NZD) are riding the tape. The risks I’m carrying openly: copper is a max-long into a binary 30-Jun tariff decision (a “no-tariff” print hurts), the gold long is offside (don’t catch it — but don’t short the central-bank floor either), and the coiled max-short JPY can gap on intervention. Sell only glut-backed names on rallies; never chase an oversold low (Corn RSI 32, Sugar RSI 33).

03

The Trades

LONG USD/CAD 6.5 · buy dips

The trade
The cleanest read on the re-armed dollar — a STRONG uptrend (ADX 49), above all its averages, rated Buy, with short-CAD positioning deepening to −83%. The hawkish Warsh Fed is the fuel.
The RSI trap
RSI 86 screams “overbought = sell” — but in an ADX-49 trend that is normal, not a reversal. Don’t fade the strongest trend on the board.
Action / risk
LONG on dips that hold ~1.396 (the SMA20); don’t chase the spike. Stop below ~1.392. The whole dollar book dies on a DXY break of ~99 — most likely a soft Fri-26 PCE.

SHORT Corn 7.0 · sell rallies

Thesis
A record managed-money short (shorts +47,108 this week, to −49k net), glut-backed — and a strong downtrend confirms it (ADX 41, Strong Sell, below all averages). RSI 32, oversold at $4.12.
Entry — technical
SHORT a rally toward the SMA20 ~$4.30. Do NOT chase the low. Stop ~1.5× ATR (≈$0.13) above entry.
Exit / kill-switch
Weeks. Cover on a weather scare (the 2026 crop was cut −6%) or a close above ~$4.50 (SMA50).

LONG Cocoa 4.0 · tactical squeeze

What happened
The coiled max-short (−89%) detonated again — +13.6% to $4,588, RSI 69, above the 20/50-day. But it’s below the 200-day ($4,839) with ADX 16 (weak) and stocks are rising — a tactical bounce, not a new bull market.
Entry
Hold/trade the squeeze; add only on dips that hold the breakout. Don’t marry it.
Exit
Take profit into vertical spikes (short fuel burns fast); trail under the breakout. Don’t over-short the coming-crop tightness either.
04

Financials — the calls, resolved

Rates, equities and VIX — with the FOMC now behind us. Each is Now / Waiting for / If it fires, so “no trade” is never the end of the story: it tells you the exact trigger that would create one.

Equities NO new short — squeeze re-loaded

Holds up
Now
NO new short. Leveraged Funds pushed to a RECORD short S&P (−524k, +64k more into the print) — yet price held the UPTREND (7,530, above the 200-day 6,944), Buy, RSI 54. That is the pain-trade-up set-up re-loading, not a top. Don’t fight the Buy tape; don’t chase it either.
Waiting for
▸ SHORT trigger: price closes back below the SMA20 / recent pivot WITH a hot PCE (Fri-26) or a 30Y > 5% rates tantrum — i.e. a macro catalyst, not positioning alone.
If it fires
Then the record short stops being fuel and becomes a trend — re-load the SHORT. Until a catalyst, the −100% short is squeeze risk to the UPSIDE.

Rates Flag RE-ARMING — watch 30Y

Risk rising
Now
NO TRADE (not your market), but the flag the report watches is RE-ARMING: yields ROSE on the hawkish FOMC (2Y 4.23 +15bp, 10Y 4.51, 30Y 4.94). The record Asset-Mgr duration long is now offside; the Lev “record short” is the basis trade (not directional).
Waiting for
▸ The flag fires if 30Y breaks 5.0% (10Y > ~4.60%) WITH a repo/SOFR funding-stress tell — the basis-trade unwind. This week’s 5Y/7Y auctions + Fri PCE are the pressure points.
If it fires
DE-RISK the whole book — a basis unwind re-traps the equity shorts and spikes the dollar. This is the one event that chains rates → equities → FX.

VIX NO TRADE — green

Calm held
Now
NO TRADE. The fragility gauge is green: VIX 17.3, shorts COVERED into the FOMC (+22k, rel −13% from −33%), rated Sell (vol falling). The event passed without a vol spasm.
Waiting for
▸ Turns amber/red if Lev short-vol re-crowds toward −60/−70% of max, OR dealers flip to SHORT gamma. Neither is present.
If it fires
Cut risk across the book — a short-gamma vol market cascades. Not today.
05

Cross-Asset Signals

The relationships that mattered — updated for the hawkish-Fed tape. Each was adversarially stress-tested; the ones that broke are traps to avoid.

The master trade · USD
BACK ON — ride it
The whole book is one bet again: long USD. The hawkish Warsh FOMC re-armed it — DXY 101, RSI 70, ADX 37, above all averages, Buy. Action: express it through LONG USD/CAD (the ADX-49 trend leader), add on dips; SHORT GBP/USD and NZD/USD ride the same trend. Flip trigger: a DXY break back below ~99 — most likely on a soft Fri-26 PCE.
Metals = a USD / real-yield short
VERIFIED this week
Gold, silver and the PGMs ALL sold off together as the USD and real yields rose — the complex is trading as one USD/real-yield short, not on its own stories. Action: no metals long until yields/USD roll over; don’t short the deficit names (copper, PGM) into tariff/supply risk. Keep this pairing — it held cleanly.
Risk dial · AUD/NZD
Confirms USD-up
AUD/USD (0.699, Sell) and NZD/USD (0.571, Strong Sell) are both soft below their averages — the high-beta commodity FX confirms the strong-dollar / softer-commodity tape. Action: SHORT NZD/USD with the dollar; the AUD long flushed to neutral = no trade.
Commodity short filter
Only short the glut
The rule paid again: SHORT only glut names (Corn at a record short, Sugar; GBP/NZD with the USD) on rallies, and VETO the tight names — Copper (30-Jun tariff squeeze), Cattle (75-yr-low herd) and PGM (deficit) all held or rose while the glut shorts worked. Never short the scarcity.
Traps — do NOT force these
Oil ↔ CADDECOUPLED again — WTI collapsed −8.6% to $74 yet USD/CAD ROSE to 1.416 (RSI 86). CAD trades as a USD short, not an oil proxy. Don’t fade the CAD long because oil fell.
Metals ↔ USD / yieldsHELD — gold/silver/PGMs sold off together as the USD & real yields rose. Trade the metals complex off the dollar and real yields, not off their individual stories.
VIX ↔ S&PThe −1.3% equity dip did NOT spike the VIX (short-vol covered, dealers long gamma) — a positioning grind, not a vol regime. Don’t trade one off the other.
RSI aloneUSD/CAD RSI 86 and DXY RSI 70 “overbought” inside ADX 49 / 37 strong trends are NOT sells — read RSI WITH ADX, or you’ll fade the strongest trends on the board.
06

Appendix — Commodities

CFTC Disaggregated — Managed Money, positioning to Tue 16 Jun 2026 (self-pulled). Net = fund longs − shorts. Crowd & fuel = the spec net as % of its 1-yr extreme. Px · since 16-Jun = the price move SINCE the COT close (Window B, TradingView) — so e.g. Cocoa’s +13.6% squeeze is the print here. Signal & read are current to 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).

ContractNetCrowd & fuelFlow (gross legs)Px · since 16-JunSignalRead (current)
ENERGY
RBOB Gasoline+67,420LONG 68% ⚑L +5,604 / S +2,309−0.1%NO TRADECrowded long, Sell-rated — no edge.
WTI (NYMEX)+96,228LONG 55%L +6,690 / S +5,187−8.6%NO TRADELongs built into 16-Jun, then crude COLLAPSED on the Hormuz peace; oversold RSI 28. Stand aside — headline risk both ways.
Brent (NYMEX LD)+8,130LONG 36%L +765 / S +390NO TRADEWar premium gone; no trade.
NY Harbor ULSD+9,519LONG 23%L +1,817 / S +1,805−4.4%▸ LONG▸ LONG on a reclaim — distillate cracks record-tight; long stopped on the flush.
NatGas−84,909SHORT 63%L +8,114 / S −29,594+2.5%▸ SHORT▸ SHORT on a break <$3.05 — shorts covered hard, firm $3.23, Buy. Summer heat is the bull.
PRECIOUS & BASE METALS
HG Copper+69,008LONG 91% ⚑L −2,391 / S −2,195−2.0%HOLD LONGShort BANNED — acutely tight; 30-Jun tariff decision. Consolidating $6.36, Neutral. Hold longs.
Gold+113,721LONG 70% ⚑L +1,763 / S −6,095−2.7%NO TRADELong OFFSIDE — USD+yields up → below all averages, STRONG SELL. CB floor = don’t short either.
Platinum+7,884LONG 38%L −742 / S −352−5.6%NO TRADE2026 deficit caps it, but momentum broke. No trade.
Silver+12,885LONG 29%L +2,403 / S −79−6.8%NO TRADESold off with the complex; Strong Sell.
Palladium−4,319SHORT 65%L +446 / S +305−5.7%NO TRADERussian-duty squeeze risk — don’t press shorts.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS
Soybean Oil+122,424LONG 73% ⚑L −10,906 / S −4,584−9.0%HOLD LONGBroke the 20/50-day (RSI 30) but above the 200-day ($59) — hold tight, CLOSE below ~$64.
Soybeans+54,494LONG 23%L −22,453 / S +20,912+2.7%NO TRADELongs capitulated (−43k net) yet price rose — edge gone, stand aside.
Wheat (KCBT)+8,363LONG 22%L +5,686 / S −6,675+1.0%NO TRADEShort covered to net-long; tight HRW, crowd small.
Soybean Meal+19,460LONG 15%L −4,104 / S +31,883+0.7%NO TRADECapitulated (−36k net); spent.
Corn−49,487SHORT 26%L −1,073 / S +47,108−0.1%SHORTRECORD short build — SHORT rallies to ~$4.30, STRONG downtrend (ADX 41) but oversold $4.12, don’t chase.
Wheat (CBOT)−68,968SHORT 61% ⚑L +2,759 / S −5,866+4.3%HOLD SHORTBounced +4.3%, world ample. Trail short; close above the pivot.
SOFTS
Cotton+33,542LONG 56%L −5,008 / S +3,988+3.6%NO TRADECrowded long into abundant stocks; mixed, no edge.
Coffee (Arabica)+14,007LONG 28%L −731 / S −2,875+5.6%NO TRADENet long, bounced +5.6%, Neutral — no clean trade.
Sugar−154,935SHORT 65%L −6,932 / S +24,290−2.3%SHORTShort deepening, global surplus — SHORT rallies to ~13.8, Strong Sell, RSI 33.
Cocoa (NYBOT)−20,556SHORT 89% ⚑L +2,188 / S −340+13.6%LONGLONG (tactical) — squeeze FIRED +13.6% to $4,588; above 20/50-day, below the 200-day. Take profit into spikes.
LIVESTOCK
Live Cattle+122,805LONG 89% ⚑L +12,114 / S −1,619+2.4%HOLD LONGAbove averages, Buy. 75-yr-low herd; hold longs, short BANNED.
Feeder Cattle+13,356LONG 37%L +1,833 / S −131+3.3%HOLD LONGSame scarcity, Buy. Hold longs.
Lean Hogs−28,640SHORT 100%L −1,554 / S +2,625−0.7%▸ LONG▸ LONG on a cover-print — still soft ($96.7), Sell, ample supply. Not yet.
07

Appendix — FX

CFTC Legacy futures-only, Non-Commercial. Positioning is per currency; the Signal is the tradeable pair — so “short the yen” (specs short JPY) becomes ▸ SHORT USD/JPY = long the yen. No ambiguity.

CcyPairNetΔ NetRelWk Px ΔSignal (the pair trade)Read (current)
EUREUR/USD+34,353+20,42119%−1.4%NO TRADELongs building but EUR/USD oversold (RSI 31), capped post-ECB. Sell rallies into USD strength.
CHFUSD/CHF−40,058−3,393−91%+1.8%HOLD long USD/CHFShort CHF deepened = long USD/CHF; firm, Buy. No adds.
GBPGBP/USD−71,585−7,372−77%−1.2%SHORT GBP/USDShort re-loaded; broke below ~1.332, Sell. Confirmed (was armed).
JPYUSD/JPY−150,132−4,314−100%+0.8%▸ SHORT USD/JPYRecord short yen = the coiled spring. On a risk shock / intervention only; 161.6, RSI 70, Buy — don’t pre-position.
CADUSD/CAD−132,901−12,902−83%+1.2%LONG USD/CADShort-CAD = long USD/CAD. The trend monster (ADX 49, Buy); add on dips to ~1.396, RSI 86 ≠ sell.
AUDAUD/USD−4,125−22,285−4%−1.1%NO TRADELong flushed to neutral (−22k); AUD/USD soft, Sell.
NZDNZD/USD−45,161−13,590−80%−1.9%SHORT NZD/USDShort reloaded; broke down, Strong Sell. Confirmed (was armed).
MXNUSD/MXN+71,789+7,98866%+0.9%NO TRADEPeso long crowded (carry); USD/MXN 17.37. No edge.
USDDXY basket+$29.3bn+$1.5bn101.0LONG USDThe master long, RE-ARMED by the hawkish FOMC. DXY 101, RSI 70, Buy.

USD row = implied aggregate dollar position (−Σ of the others’ $bn): specs are net long $29.3bn vs the basket (+$1.5bn on the week) — now re-armed by the hawkish FOMC (DXY 101, RSI 70, above all averages).

08

Appendix — Rates · Equities · VIX

CFTC Traders-in-Financial-Futures. Rates read via Asset Managers (the Lev-Fund net is the basis trade). Equities/VIX via Leveraged Funds. “Now” = TradingView 23 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).

Rates — Asset Managers; the record long is OFFSIDE (yields rose)
ContractOIAM netRelLev (basis)Yield nowSignalRead (current)
UST 10Y5.3M+2,485k100%−2,082k4.51%NO TRADERecord long now OFFSIDE — yields ROSE. The flag re-arms toward 4.60%.
Ultra Bond2.5M+1,163k97%−938kNO TRADERecord long; the long end sold off.
UST Bond1.9M+547k93%−310k4.94%NO TRADE30Y back near 5.0% — the systemic trip is close.
Ultra 10Y2.4M+623k84%−233kNO TRADELong offside as the long-end sold.
UST 5Y6.2M+2,876k75%−2,214k4.29%NO TRADEBelly hit; the largest basis short on the curve (Lev side).
UST 2Y4.3M+1,824k70%−1,704k4.23%NO TRADEFront-end jumped +15bp — the most-hawkish point.
Equity indices — Leveraged Funds; a RECORD short = squeeze fuel
IndexLev netΔ LevRelNowSignalRead (current)
S&P 500−523k−64k−100%7,530NO TRADERECORD short into the print, yet price held the uptrend, Buy. Squeeze fuel — no new short (▸short only on a catalyst).
Nasdaq-100−51k+5k−69%30,571NO TRADECovered slightly; above its averages, Buy.
Russell 2000−84k−10k−72%3,020NO TRADEBears pressing, but Buy-rated, +1.0%.
Dow (DJIA)−9k−0k−37%52,140NO TRADENear highs, Buy.
MSCI EM+45k−21k27%NO TRADETrimmed (−21k) by the strong dollar.
Volatility — VIX
ContractLev netDealer netRelNowSignalRead (current)
VIX−13k+43k−13%17.3NO TRADEShorts COVERED into the FOMC (+22k, −13% from −33%), rated Sell (vol falling) — dealers stayed long gamma, so the hawkish print passed without a vol spasm. Green.